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Ford Posts $1.76B Profit


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35 minutes ago, akirby said:

Notice the 10% margins on blue and pro, but only 4% overall.  This shows a much healthier business when you consider all the non revenue producing investments in model E.  This is why they separated them.

 

Model E should start making profits in the next 36 months or so also, at least according to Ford. I'm guessing the additional battery capacity should help with that. 

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33 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Model E should start making profits in the next 36 months or so also, at least according to Ford. I'm guessing the additional battery capacity should help with that. 


The main thing is to get Blue Oval City up and running.  That’s a huge investment producing no revenue at all.

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39 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Model E should start making profits in the next 36 months or so also, at least according to Ford. I'm guessing the additional battery capacity should help with that. 

 

That's correct. Combine that with SOP at new plants like Blue Oval City as akirby mentioned and an accelerated transition to an all-electric future for Ford Motor Company, and Model e could be in the black by 2025.

Edited by rperez817
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4 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

That's correct. Combine that with SOP at new plants like Blue Oval City as akirby mentioned and an accelerated transition to an all-electric future for Ford Motor Company, and Model e could be in the black by 2025.


What do you make of the “Cautionary Note on Forward Looking Statements” starting on page 6 which seems to anticipate potential problems in just about every area?
 

https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North America/US/2023/05/02/Q1 2023 Earnings Release.pdf

 

 

Regarding transition to BEVs, one that concerns me more than most is:

 

“Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;”

 

While larger ICE vehicles have been most profitable for Ford, will large BEVs have similar success?  Perhaps, but I don’t see it.  BEV competition may end up in much more crowded segments where profitability won’t be as easy.

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43 minutes ago, Rick73 said:


What do you make of the “Cautionary Note on Forward Looking Statements” starting on page 6 which seems to anticipate potential problems in just about every area?
 

https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North America/US/2023/05/02/Q1 2023 Earnings Release.pdf

 

 

Regarding transition to BEVs, one that concerns me more than most is:

 

“Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;”

 

While larger ICE vehicles have been most profitable for Ford, will large BEVs have similar success?  Perhaps, but I don’t see it.  BEV competition may end up in much more crowded segments where profitability won’t be as easy.


That’s standard CYA stuff.  They’re not looking for profit from BEVs any time soon so that comment applies to ICE for this particular timeframe.  It just means if sales of larger vehicles don’t meet expectations that could lower profits.

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1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Regarding transition to BEVs, one that concerns me more than most is:

 

“Ford’s results are dependent on sales of larger, more profitable vehicles, particularly in the United States;”

 

While larger ICE vehicles have been most profitable for Ford, will large BEVs have similar success?  Perhaps, but I don’t see it.  BEV competition may end up in much more crowded segments where profitability won’t be as easy.

 

Excellent points Rick73, your concerns are perfectly valid. For BEV, the path to profitability will entail a totally different approach to design, engineering, production, and marketing compared to ICE vehicles. And you are correct that competition will be intense. Not only from other incumbent automakers like VW and GM but also from companies like Tesla and Rivian that already have 100% BEV automotive product lineups, from other automakers like BYD Auto that are ahead of Ford in terms of getting rid of ICE powered vehicles from their lineups, and from companies outside the automobile manufacturing sector like Apple, Amazon, and Baidu.

 

Ford definitely has a lot of work ahead as it transitions to an all-electric future. I'm confident Ford will succeed, despite hitting rough spots along the way like what happened in Q1 2023. Ford's split into Model e, Blue, and Pro divisions is a step in the right direction, and Jim Farley's leadership while not perfect provides Ford with a solid foundation.  

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55 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

And you are correct that competition will be intense. Not only from other incumbent automakers like VW and GM but also from companies like Tesla and Rivian that already have 100% BEV automotive product lineups, from other automakers like BYD Auto that are ahead of Ford in terms of getting rid of ICE powered vehicles from their lineups, and from companies outside the automobile manufacturing sector like Apple, Amazon, and Baidu.

 

It seems like some of these manufactures have a reparability issue in accidents-there was an article about a minor rear-end accident in a Rivian pickup that cost $42K to repair! That didn't even have anything to do with the battery on it. 

 

I haven't seen anything about the Mach E for example, outside outrageous prices for replacing the battery packs on them, which is a manufacturing/recycling issue 

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2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

It seems like some of these manufactures have a reparability issue in accidents-there was an article about a minor rear-end accident in a Rivian pickup that cost $42K to repair! That didn't even have anything to do with the battery on it. 

 

I haven't seen anything about the Mach E for example, outside outrageous prices for replacing the battery packs on them, which is a manufacturing/recycling issue 

Good article from Forbes on this issue. There's a paywall, but you get 4 free articles a month. The key conclusions are that while some of the cost differentials on repairs should come down, there are reasons that all-electrics will likely continue to be more expensive to repair. See below for key points. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2022/07/25/repairing-an-electric-vehicle-could-cost-more-than-gasoline-cars-a-new-kind-of-sticker-shock/?sh=d0d38945eee5

 

  • Repair facilities are making substantial investments in new equipment and training, to work on EVs — costs they will be looking to pass on to consumers. The novelty also means EV repairs can take longer, until technicians get accustomed to the new routines.
  • While ICE vehicles also have more Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, like forward collision-avoidance, EVs are really loaded with ADAS features. ADAS sensors tend to be located in areas that are likely to be damaged in a collision, like the bumpers or exterior mirrors. They are expensive to replace.
  • Battery packs make EVs heavier than similar-sized ICE vehicles. That means they collide with greater momentum. It also means EVs make greater use of expensive, lightweight, high-strength materials to try and offset the battery weight. Those materials are expensive to replace, too.
  • Spray-painting after a repair may take longer for an EV, since often, the battery pack must be removed before painting, and reinstalled after. Time is money.
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4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

It seems like some of these manufactures have a reparability issue in accidents-there was an article about a minor rear-end accident in a Rivian pickup that cost $42K to repair! That didn't even have anything to do with the battery on it. 

Assuming this is the same incident

https://www.rivianownersforum.com/threads/rear-ended-rivian-gets-42-000-repair-bill.5445/

it sounds like Rivian made design choices that experienced automakers most likely wouldn't. It also sounds like Rivian owners are going to be looking at some insurance rate increases.

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On 5/3/2023 at 3:13 PM, Gurgeh said:

Good article from Forbes on this issue. There's a paywall, but you get 4 free articles a month. The key conclusions are that while some of the cost differentials on repairs should come down, there are reasons that all-electrics will likely continue to be more expensive to repair. See below for key points. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2022/07/25/repairing-an-electric-vehicle-could-cost-more-than-gasoline-cars-a-new-kind-of-sticker-shock/?sh=d0d38945eee5

 

  • Repair facilities are making substantial investments in new equipment and training, to work on EVs — costs they will be looking to pass on to consumers. The novelty also means EV repairs can take longer, until technicians get accustomed to the new routines.
  • While ICE vehicles also have more Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, like forward collision-avoidance, EVs are really loaded with ADAS features. ADAS sensors tend to be located in areas that are likely to be damaged in a collision, like the bumpers or exterior mirrors. They are expensive to replace.
  • Battery packs make EVs heavier than similar-sized ICE vehicles. That means they collide with greater momentum. It also means EVs make greater use of expensive, lightweight, high-strength materials to try and offset the battery weight. Those materials are expensive to replace, too.
  • Spray-painting after a repair may take longer for an EV, since often, the battery pack must be removed before painting, and reinstalled after. Time is money.



I know the article didn't specify, but maybe someone else knows.. why would you remove the battery pack to spray??

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5 hours ago, Captainp4 said:



I know the article didn't specify, but maybe someone else knows.. why would you remove the battery pack to spray??

Probably so they can spray parts that need to be sprayed in place but would be blocked by the battery pack. The batteries may also not take kindly to the environment inside the paint booth--I don't know if the booth gets hot enough to pose a potential thermal problem for the batteries, but getting a random spark in a room filled with atomized paint and fumes would be...unfortunate.

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7 hours ago, SoonerLS said:

Probably so they can spray parts that need to be sprayed in place but would be blocked by the battery pack. The batteries may also not take kindly to the environment inside the paint booth--I don't know if the booth gets hot enough to pose a potential thermal problem for the batteries, but getting a random spark in a room filled with atomized paint and fumes would be...unfortunate.

Just speculation on my part, but there may be an electrostatic buildup, as the paint could act as an anode as it is applied.

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13 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

I know the article didn't specify, but maybe someone else knows.. why would you remove the battery pack to spray??

 

1 hour ago, Chrisgb said:

Just speculation on my part, but there may be an electrostatic buildup, as the paint could act as an anode as it is applied.

 

Electrostatic painting is often used in order to reduce waste and get better coverage, probably not a good idea to do that with a high voltage battery installed.

Edited by Flying68
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16 hours ago, Captainp4 said:



I know the article didn't specify, but maybe someone else knows.. why would you remove the battery pack to spray??

 

Since paint is highly flammable, to spray paint, you need to eliminate potential ignition sources, which will include high-voltage batteries.

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I've been around a paint booth or two, never removed a (12v) battery while spraying, I did get yelled at by the painters for lighting up a cig while standing outside though ?. Sounds a lot like FUD or a shop trying to rack up costs to me which is why I asked. I asked my body shop painter buddy because I was curious..

He says it may be because of the bake cycle. ~30mins at 160*. Not sure if that'd be an issue with the thermal management they have now, and it only being 30 minutes I doubt the pack would get much of that heat being so deep in the car. Also says natural gas cars aren't allowed in the booth, but hasn't had any specific BEV paint training yet, so take it for what it's worth.

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9 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

He says it may be because of the bake cycle. ~30mins at 160*.

I think that's well outside the normal ambient operating range for the batteries, and lithium-based batteries do not play nicely when they get overheated. Their thermal management systems work well, but they have to dissipate the heat somewhere--if you stick them in a 160*F oven when they're only designed for a max ambient of around 125*F... 

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Interesting discussion on BEV accident repair costs, and wonder how having to remove  battery could  affect costs of vehicles using structural battery packs which save weight and improve range.  Apparently Tesla structural batteries can be removed but require dismantling much of the vehicle, making it very labor intensive.  It seems likely that some initial savings will be offset by higher insurance rates if they can’t figure out how to complete repairs without removing structural batteries.

 

Also wonder if repair shops, having to invest in additional equipment and employee training, will spread some of that (fixed or overhead?) cost over all vehicles, not just BEV.  Repair cost differences between ICE and BEV may not reflect true total if that happens.

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Electric vehicles are the biggest joke I've ever seen! Every human exhales 2.2 lbs. of CO2 per day. The population of the US and world has doubled in the last 50 years give or take.So let's do away with people! Trees take in CO2 but we keep unnecessarily cutting them down in the name of safety, so that's another reason why we have excess CO2. By the way, if tree cutting companies had their way, they'd want to cut down every tree on the planet!  Well that's how they eat!  See anything wrong with the system? Anyway, without CO2, we'd be dead!  You can't reduce the carbon footprint of a carbon based planet!  These so called scientists -- paid by govt. -- said Pluto was a planet, now it's not!  They say milk and eggs are good for you one year, next year not, then third year good again!  All the cars and industrial plants don't emit what human exhalation, rotting vegetation and volcanoes do! But let's believe these scientists for a moment. They say we've had climate change events for millions of years! There were no cars and industrial plants back then!  When these lithium mining countries and owners withhold lithium someday, these school bus manufacturers are going to have their thumbs up their arses!!

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1 hour ago, Joe771476 said:

Electric vehicles are the biggest joke I've ever seen! 

 

They certainly aren't a joke to Ford. As mentioned in the 1Q 2023 financials press release, Ford's Model e division is on track "making and selling EVs at a global run rate of 600,000 units by the end of 2023 and more than two million by the end of 2026". Ford's entire future existence is tied to continued growth in its Model e and Pro divisions, successfully transitioning to an all-electric vehicle lineup by 2035 in major markets and by 2040 everywhere it does business.

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5 hours ago, Joe771476 said:

Electric vehicles are the biggest joke I've ever seen! Every human exhales 2.2 lbs. of CO2 per day. The population of the US and world has doubled in the last 50 years give or take.So let's do away with people! Trees take in CO2 but we keep unnecessarily cutting them down in the name of safety, so that's another reason why we have excess CO2. By the way, if tree cutting companies had their way, they'd want to cut down every tree on the planet!  Well that's how they eat!  See anything wrong with the system? Anyway, without CO2, we'd be dead!  You can't reduce the carbon footprint of a carbon based planet!  These so called scientists -- paid by govt. -- said Pluto was a planet, now it's not!  They say milk and eggs are good for you one year, next year not, then third year good again!  All the cars and industrial plants don't emit what human exhalation, rotting vegetation and volcanoes do! But let's believe these scientists for a moment. They say we've had climate change events for millions of years! There were no cars and industrial plants back then!  When these lithium mining countries and owners withhold lithium someday, these school bus manufacturers are going to have their thumbs up their arses!!

 

The railroads laughed at the car.

Canal and stagecoach companies laughed at the railroad.

 

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