Ford pushes back EV target, warns of wider losses due to slower-than-expected adoption

[DeluxeStang]

5 hours ago, Flying68 said:

Ford needs to bring the hybrid F-250 with the full 7.2kW pro-power to market. Pair that electric motor with the 6.8 or better yet the 7.3 and you have a nice alternative to diesel for the weekend camping trip. Would make boondocking simpler.

I believe you and I, along with many others, discussed the pros and cons of a 6.8 hybrid setup in length when we were discussing what engine ford should use in the raptor r. You were arguing a 6.8 hybrid would be superior to the 5.2 if I'm not mistaken. 

 

The issue is the 6.8 has a few key advantages over the 6.7 power stroke:

 

Cost

Complexity/ease of maintenance

Lighter weight

 

Hybridizing this powerplant would negate these benefits. I believe it's also been said that while EVs/Hybrids are perfectly capable for light duty use cases, the insane rigors of super duty truck use would cause major durability issues amongst other things. Hybrid/EV tech is generally very reliable now, but not quite at the point where those components can handle towing 30k lbs for 500k miles without a single major issue. 

 

[rperez817]

22 hours ago, jpd80 said:

As 2030 deadline approaches, Europe will have to soften its ICE ban once it realises that the hard cut isn’t going to work.

 

Aaron Robinson of Car and Driver described the relationship between governments and the automotive industry as follows.

 

The relationship between government and [automotive] industry followed this pattern: Government demands something, the industry screams that it's impossible, and then it delivers exactly what was demanded. Repeat steps one through three about 67,000 times and you define the modern automobile.

 

As such, regulators in Europe must stick firm to its year 2030, 2035, and 2040 requirements related to the ZEV transition, including bans on the sale of new ICE vehicles. Governments in other parts of the world can of course use Europe's standards as a starting point and maybe establish even more aggressive targets.

[Rick73]

54 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

As such, regulators in Europe must stick firm to its year 2030, 2035, and 2040 requirements related to the ZEV transition, including bans on the sale of new ICE vehicles. Governments in other parts of the world can of course use Europe's standards as a starting point and maybe establish even more aggressive targets.

I’m sitting in the dark as I write this because electrical power went out again.  Sounded like a nearby transformer blew, not because the grid couldn’t keep up; at least I hope that’s the case.  Regardless, this summer’s heat wave has caused many relatively short power outages.  In the past we rarely loss power at all except during severe storms.

 

Operating electrical power equipment near 100% of rated capacity will shorten its life and also make it less reliable.  I’m living with consequences of those decisions now. The grid and distribution system in Texas is not ready for planned electrification, and the rest of country is probably lacking also.  I know the party line is that it will all be upgraded by 2030 or 2035 but I think that’s total BS.  The cost alone is prohibitive.
 

Pushing electrification schedule ahead of electrical upgrades is insanity in my opinion.  I honestly want BEVs in the future, but we need to upgrade the grid AHEAD of demand.  Otherwise, we are just trading one problem for a bigger one.

 

In Europe the Ukraine war exposed vulnerability early.  Hopefully UK and other countries get their act together before they have massive energy shortages and or prices become unaffordable.  There’s just not enough redundancy to add even more loads in US.  The premise that we can just add loads now and hope somehow the already strained electrical system will be able to handle much higher future loads with a few upgrades is too risky.  Policy should mandate that sufficient electrical capacity is available first.

[Flying68]

13 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

I believe you and I, along with many others, discussed the pros and cons of a 6.8 hybrid setup in length when we were discussing what engine ford should use in the raptor r. You were arguing a 6.8 hybrid would be superior to the 5.2 if I'm not mistaken. 

 

The issue is the 6.8 has a few key advantages over the 6.7 power stroke:

 

Cost

Complexity/ease of maintenance

Lighter weight

 

Hybridizing this powerplant would negate these benefits. I believe it's also been said that while EVs/Hybrids are perfectly capable for light duty use cases, the insane rigors of super duty truck use would cause major durability issues amongst other things. Hybrid/EV tech is generally very reliable now, but not quite at the point where those components can handle towing 30k lbs for 500k miles without a single major issue. 

 

I don't remember those conversations, but I will assume they probably occurred.  The premise you are coming from here is that a hybrid would have to handle 30k lbs of towing.  I don't think it does.  Especially in an F-250.  The current diesel motors are way more torque and power than an F-250 really needs for any towing with SRW.  Most F-250's see more unladen driving than anything, perhaps full payloads in the bed, but they aren't constantly towing.  The 7.3 is a capable motor and can handle the constant torque demands for everything the F-250 can tow.  Adding the hybrid would provide an on demand torque boost for starting, passing, and hill climbs.  Combine that with a 5 to 10 kwh battery and then you have the ability to sustain that boost on a long hill climb and to have a nice ProPower setup.  The extra advantage is that the hybrid setup would greatly increase the normal driving fuel efficiency.  The hybrid system is not that complex as done in the F-150 and Aviator and the added weight is dependent on the size of the battery.

[Flying68]

13 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

I believe you and I, along with many others, discussed the pros and cons of a 6.8 hybrid setup in length when we were discussing what engine ford should use in the raptor r. You were arguing a 6.8 hybrid would be superior to the 5.2 if I'm not mistaken. 

 

The issue is the 6.8 has a few key advantages over the 6.7 power stroke:

 

Cost

Complexity/ease of maintenance

Lighter weight

 

Hybridizing this powerplant would negate these benefits. I believe it's also been said that while EVs/Hybrids are perfectly capable for light duty use cases, the insane rigors of super duty truck use would cause major durability issues amongst other things. Hybrid/EV tech is generally very reliable now, but not quite at the point where those components can handle towing 30k lbs for 500k miles without a single major issue. 

 

I don't remember those conversations, but I will assume they probably occurred.  The premise you are coming from here is that a hybrid would have to handle 30k lbs of towing.  I don't think it does.  Especially in an F-250.  The current diesel motors are way more torque and power than an F-250 really needs for any towing with SRW.  Most F-250's see more unladen driving than anything, perhaps full payloads in the bed, but they aren't constantly towing.  The 7.3 is a capable motor and can handle the constant torque demands for everything the F-250 can tow.  Adding the hybrid would provide an on demand torque boost for starting, passing, and hill climbs.  Combine that with a 5 to 10 kwh battery and then you have the ability to sustain that boost on a long hill climb and to have a nice ProPower setup.  The extra advantage is that the hybrid setup would greatly increase the normal driving fuel efficiency.  The hybrid system is not that complex as done in the F-150 and Aviator and the added weight is dependent on the size of the battery.

[DeluxeStang]

1 hour ago, Flying68 said:

I don't remember those conversations, but I will assume they probably occurred.  The premise you are coming from here is that a hybrid would have to handle 30k lbs of towing.  I don't think it does.  Especially in an F-250.  The current diesel motors are way more torque and power than an F-250 really needs for any towing with SRW.  Most F-250's see more unladen driving than anything, perhaps full payloads in the bed, but they aren't constantly towing.  The 7.3 is a capable motor and can handle the constant torque demands for everything the F-250 can tow.  Adding the hybrid would provide an on demand torque boost for starting, passing, and hill climbs.  Combine that with a 5 to 10 kwh battery and then you have the ability to sustain that boost on a long hill climb and to have a nice ProPower setup.  The extra advantage is that the hybrid setup would greatly increase the normal driving fuel efficiency.  The hybrid system is not that complex as done in the F-150 and Aviator and the added weight is dependent on the size of the battery.

I'm not opposed to the idea, but I'd like Ford to resolve the reliability issues with the 7.3 before they make it more complex by strapping electric motors and batteries to it. I believe Farley has said there are no plans for a hybrid or EV super duty at this time, but we'll see how it goes.

[Deanh]

4 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

I'm not opposed to the idea, but I'd like Ford to resolve the reliability issues with the 7.3 before they make it more complex by strapping electric motors and batteries to it. I believe Farley has said there are no plans for a hybrid or EV super duty at this time, but we'll see how it goes.

no plans as the big trucks are over a certain GVW and dont effect CAFE ratings...Govt clamps down on that loophole, expect to see the Superduties embrace some sort of hybrid drivetrain to avoid penalties...

[7Mary3]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/business/ford-department-of-energy-loan/index.html

[justins]

On 7/30/2023 at 5:45 AM, .I. said:

Ford of Europe will be in big trouble. No ICE vehicles by 2030?  No way.  Now, with the Fiesta, the Focus, the Mondeo, the C-Max , all dead, what will Ford sell?? 

FoE has consistently been a little to no margin market due to the types of vehicles that get purchased - Light and Small vehicles and commercials. High development costs and little margin. That's why MEB agreement with VW - to consolidate costs. You literally need to be part of an alliance to make a profit in Europe now - VW Group, PSA, Renault / Nissan / Mitsu etc. While the vehicles Ford are dropping might be missed (Focus, Fiesta etc.), their impact on Ford's bottom line will barely rate a mention. 

[jpd80]

14 hours ago, Deanh said:

no plans as the big trucks are over a certain GVW and dont effect CAFE ratings...Govt clamps down on that loophole, expect to see the Superduties embrace some sort of hybrid drivetrain to avoid penalties...

The SDs are now subject to tighter EPA emissions /fuel efficiency targets but that’s based them being mostly loaded. So while that doesn’t affect CAFE, it does offer challenges to manufacturers like Ford.

Maybe the current mix of two gasoline V8s and a diesel V8 is enough for the foreseeable future.

Edited August 1, 2023 by jpd80

[AM222]

On 7/30/2023 at 6:23 PM, .I. said:

Is not in the 20 best seller list of Europe… Ford hasn’t any vehicle in that list.  Ford is turning in a marginal brand in the continent. 

The Kuga may have dropped out of the top 20, but the Ford Puma is still in the top 20, at least for H1 of 2023.


For H1 of 2023, Ford Kuga was 24th, Ford Puma was at 17th, (best selling Ford in Europe). 

Ford Kuga ended 2022 at 19th, so it's dropped a couple of spots.

Edited August 1, 2023 by AM222

[akirby]

6 hours ago, justins said:

FoE has consistently been a little to no margin market due to the types of vehicles that get purchased - Light and Small vehicles and commercials. High development costs and little margin. That's why MEB agreement with VW - to consolidate costs. You literally need to be part of an alliance to make a profit in Europe now - VW Group, PSA, Renault / Nissan / Mitsu etc. While the vehicles Ford are dropping might be missed (Focus, Fiesta etc.), their impact on Ford's bottom line will barely rate a mention. 

Doesn't help that Europe did separate platforms and powertrains.

[Happy european guy]

2 hours ago, AM222 said:

The Kuga may have dropped out of the top 20, but the Ford Puma is still in the top 20, at least for H1 of 2023.


For H1 of 2023, Ford Kuga was 24th, Ford Puma was at 17th, (best selling Ford in Europe). 

Ford Kuga ended 2022 at 19th, so it's dropped a couple of spots.

Oh!  Great!  The best seller Ford in Europe is the number 17 in the top 20 list!   Wow.      Some years ago, the Focus made the top 3 bestseller in many Europeans markets and the Fiesta made the top 2 in UK for many years. ??

[ice-capades]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

Doesn't help that Europe did separate platforms and powertrains.

 

Just a matter of time to see how long this Ford-VW partnership lasts. 

[fuzzymoomoo]

2 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

Just a matter of time to see how long this Ford-VW partnership lasts. 

Wait, it’s still a thing?

[akirby]

20 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Wait, it’s still a thing?

In Europe.

[fuzzymoomoo]

5 minutes ago, akirby said:

In Europe.

There can’t be that much left of it by now. Ford has pivoted so much since it was announced I think we’ve seen all we’re going to see out of it. 

[akirby]

3 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

There can’t be that much left of it by now. Ford has pivoted so much since it was announced I think we’ve seen all we’re going to see out of it. 

New EVs in Europe for Ford and Amarok truck for VW?

[akirby]

4 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

There can’t be that much left of it by now. Ford has pivoted so much since it was announced I think we’ve seen all we’re going to see out of it. 

The pivot was only on the North America Bev platform.

[7Mary3]

6 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

Just a matter of time to see how long this Ford-VW partnership lasts. 

 

And Ford leaves Europe.

[DeluxeStang]

5 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

There can’t be that much left of it by now. Ford has pivoted so much since it was announced I think we’ve seen all we’re going to see out of it. 

Based off what we've heard, it sounds like Ford has a super flexible and profitable platform of its own in development. But it'll be a little bit before it arrives. So it seems like Ford may use VW's platform for the next few years to offer lower cost EVs in Europe. Here's hoping as they pivot to their own platform that they bring some of those cheaper EVs here. 

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Based off what we've heard, it sounds like Ford has a super flexible and profitable platform of its own in development. But it'll be a little bit before it arrives. So it seems like Ford may use VW's platform for the next few years to offer lower cost EVs in Europe. Here's hoping as they pivot to their own platform that they bring some of those cheaper EVs here. 

I’m betting one product cycle with MEB based BEVs in Europe before Ford adopts a Euro version of the coming CE1 Architecture (2028 Bronco Sport BEV).

 

I think Ford needs to go through the process of building the MEB  platform if only to realise what it doesn’t like about BEV construction and make sure they don’t repeat with their own.

Edited August 2, 2023 by jpd80

[bzcat]

On 8/1/2023 at 10:03 AM, akirby said:

New EVs in Europe for Ford and Amarok truck for VW?

 

Also Transit Connect which is a rebadged VW Caddy.

 

The partnership also include Ford supplying VW with a "one-ton" van which is still unknown but is probably the new Transit Custom rebadged as VW Transporter. Originally, VW was going to phase out production of T6 Transporter at Hannover to make room for ID Buzz (VW will keep making T7 Caravelle, Multivan and California) but it's unclear if that is still the case. Transit Custom was revealed earlier this year so if VW is going to follow thru, the Transporter should be out soon.

 

 

23 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

And Ford leaves Europe.

 

Ford is the largest van and pickup truck seller in Europe. It enjoys very good margin and pricing power on these products due to its market share so I don't see them leaving anytime soon. If they can pivot successfully to a CUV only or CUV-centric brand on the retails side it will probably be ok. Selling millions of Fiesta and Focus never made Ford any money in Europe. It was always propped up by margins from Transit vans, even back in the Escort and Sierra days. This is also why some not so bright people back in the day thought buying Volvo, Jaguar, and Land Rover was the solution to Ford Europe's problem because those cars held the possibility of higher margins. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by bzcat

[akirby]

Let’s watch the political comments - posts have been deleted.

[AM222]

On 8/1/2023 at 10:07 PM, .I. said:

Oh!  Great!  The best seller Ford in Europe is the number 17 in the top 20 list!   Wow.      Some years ago, the Focus made the top 3 bestseller in many Europeans markets and the Fiesta made the top 2 in UK for many years. ??

Funny that the Fiesta's main rivals, the Opel/Vauxhall Corsa and Peugeot 208 subcompact hatchbacks (same platform) are in the top 5. Ford just killed the Fiesta. The Corsa and 208 have EV versions by the way.

You know Ford didn't care much about the Fiesta when it just reskinned a 9-year old car for the 2017 model year. Its competitors looked newer and offered more interior space. I think for most people the reskinned "new generation" Fiesta just looked like the previous one.

Edited August 5, 2023 by AM222