What Customers Really Want

[jpd80]

36 minutes ago, Rangers09 said:

 

Only change I'll suggest would be:

 

3. Bankruptcy / Profit

 

Unless consumer demand changes significantly, the former is more likely if they continue with # 2. With the way hybrids and PHEV's are currently outselling BEV's, I expect very low probability of profit in BEV's in the next 5 + yrs, especially once they factor in the existing multi-billion dollar losses and capital costs.

See, Farley talks a good game but Ford still hasn’t convinced more than a small percentage of buyers to try BEVs, I think that’s because it wasted the last decade not pushing hard with the good virtues of hybrids and PHEVs to introduce a generation of buyers to electric vehicles. Now they’re trying to go from zero to 100 mph in what’s now starting to look like an impossible time line.

 

Think about this,

Ford took their two iconic nameplates F Truck and Mustang and presented BEV versions of both, external forces conspired against ramping up production to meet early interest resulting in a dribble of sales, not the gushing torrent that Ford expected and now that early adopters have moved on, buyers won’t pay premium prices.

This is a real head scratcher for Ford….

Edited September 16, 2023 by jpd80

[akirby]

25 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

See, Farley talks a good game but Ford still hasn’t convinced more than a small percentage of buyers to try BEVs, I think that’s because it wasted the last decade not pushing hard with the good virtues of hybrids and PHEVs to introduce a generation of buyers to electric vehicles. Now they’re trying to go from zero to 100 mph in what’s now starting to look like an impossible time line.

 

Think about this,

Ford took their two iconic nameplates F Truck and Mustang and presented BEV versions of both, external forces conspired against ramping up production to meet early interest resulting in a dribble of sales, not the gushing torrent that Ford expected and now that early adopters have moved on, buyers won’t pay premium prices.

This is a real head scratcher for Ford….

They sold 7000 EVs last month in US.  That’s a pace of 84k/yr.  The problem is they projected way too high based on significantly lower prices.  These were always stopgap vehicles.  The market has definitely slowed down and I think we’re reaching a plateau with the current generation but the investment has to continue or Ford will be way behind on the next Gen.

[jpd80]

23 minutes ago, akirby said:

They sold 7000 EVs last month in US.  That’s a pace of 84k/yr.  The problem is they projected way too high based on significantly lower prices.  These were always stopgap vehicles.  The market has definitely slowed down and I think we’re reaching a plateau with the current generation but the investment has to continue or Ford will be way behind on the next Gen.

Agree with what you are  saying, my comments are directed at those perhaps taking Ford and Farley’s goals too literally.

 

Farley claims to know what customers want and that alway plays a big part in decision making or at least it should.  My concern is that words don’t seem to be matching actions, Ford choosing vehicles it wants to make (market research?) or is that more ease of production and battery range via sleeker designs. Time will tell I guess, Ford is proceeding with all of its BEV projects so something is gonna happen in the next year or so….

 

Rejection of premium pricing for BEVs is another concern, some people Will obviously pay but the majority not agreeing is a big concern considering Ford’s BEV commitments in that direction. So I’m wondering if Ford will be forced to push hybrids a bit more until BEV buyers come on board..

 

One last thought, does Ford think that eliminating Edge will force those buyers to pick Mach E?
If so, then that’s a very bad plan in my opinion……

Edited September 16, 2023 by jpd80

[akirby]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

 

Rejection of premium pricing for BEVs is another concern, some people Will obviously pay but the majority not agreeing is a big concern considering Ford’s BEV commitments in that direction. So I’m wondering if Ford will be forced to push hybrids a bit more until BEV buyers come on board..

 

One last thought, does Ford think that eliminating Edge will force those buyers to pick Mach E?
If so, then that’s a very bad plan in my opinion……

They don’t need to go for Mach-E.  They just need to get new buyers for whatever gets built in Oakville.  Just like Maverick and Bronco Sport replaced Fusion.

[jpd80]

On 9/17/2023 at 10:05 AM, akirby said:

They don’t need to go for Mach-E.  They just need to get new buyers for whatever gets built in Oakville.  Just like Maverick and Bronco Sport replaced Fusion.

And this gets back to the topic of this thread - What customers really want.

 

If we look at Bronco Sport, that is basically the older squarer Escape formula that buyers want

over say, a rounded Escape….I get that.

 

If we look at Maverick, that is basically the older smaller Ranger formula that buyers want

over a sea of vanilla compact utilities…..I get that.

 

How do we know that what Ford has planned for Oakville will be what buyers want instead of an Edge?

Ford’s market research is barely more than confirmation bias for the product they want to build.

I don’t think they know because Ford has changed the vehicle three times in as many years..

Clearly searching for a new group of buyers which is kinda risky but I guess they have to do it….

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by jpd80
Replace Escape for Edge- I misspoke

[paintguy]

Let's hope we chase "What people want" and not what politicians want us to produce. The first is free market capitalism. The second is not. Salesmanship is convincing people that what we make is what you want. Henry Ford had an odd solution to a faster horse. 

[Sherminator98]

26 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

How do we know that what Ford has planned for Oakville will be what buyers want instead of an Edge?

Ford’s market research is barely more than confirmation bias for the product they want to build.

I don’t think they know because Ford has changed the vehicle three times in as many years..

Clearly searching for a new group of buyers which is kinda risky but I guess they have to do it….

 

Don't mistake reporting by the press as gospel as to what Ford wanted to do with Oakville....I think you would have learned with the amount of time here that you've been here what the press reports and says isn't always accurate and well Ford changes their plans at times too.

 

Not sure if the EV has actually changed that much in the past three years either. The only thing we know that is kinda confirmed is that it go pushed back 18 months because of apparent battery supply issues, but we also heard that the styling went down like a lead balloon, so who knows, maybe they took the extra time to try and unfuck that. 

 

[Sherminator98]

24 minutes ago, paintguy said:

Let's hope we chase "What people want" and not what politicians want us to produce. The first is free market capitalism. The second is not. Salesmanship is convincing people that what we make is what you want. Henry Ford had an odd solution to a faster horse. 

 

But the elimination of leaded fuel, emissions controls and safety improvements where due to governments intervention and not the market. Any manufacture is going to do the bare minimum to keep profits up. 

[Rangers09]

5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

See, Farley talks a good game but Ford still hasn’t convinced more than a small percentage of buyers to try BEVs, I think that’s because it wasted the last decade not pushing hard with the good virtues of hybrids and PHEVs to introduce a generation of buyers to electric vehicles. Now they’re trying to go from zero to 100 mph in what’s now starting to look like an impossible time line.

 

Think about this,

Ford took their two iconic nameplates F Truck and Mustang and presented BEV versions of both, external forces conspired against ramping up production to meet early interest resulting in a dribble of sales, not the gushing torrent that Ford expected and now that early adopters have moved on, buyers won’t pay premium prices.

This is a real head scratcher for Ford….

 

Good points and we are a classic example.

 

Personally, at present, based on current limitations, I wouldn't suffer a BEV even if they gave me one for free, but I am extremely happy with our 3-months of PHEV ownership, to date. Driving around town on electric is amazing, as we have used no gas, other than our long trip when no charging was available. Has the PHEV made me more receptive to an electric vehicle - yes, but only when they address the 3 major issues, cost, range and charging infrastructure. Therefore, I concur that increasing the number of PHEV's and hybrids could be an excellent business model to aid consumer transition to BEV, or other zero-emission technology .

 

Based on our experience, at present the PHEV and hybrids are an excellent stepping stone to reducing carbon footprint, as our power is > 98% renewable. As an aside, I read an interesting article on our local triple A, who are introducing the F-150 Lightning into the fleet. One of the stated benefits is they can provide a small charge to the increasing number of BEV's dead at the side of the road.

 

With respect to F-series and Mustangs, I have owned F-series for 10-years, now on my 3rd truck, and was the very happy owner of a 2006 Mustang GT Convertible for about 7-years. As a very happy owner of both an F-series and Mustang, would it help me consider a BEV equivalent, only if they met my requirements. Since they don't even come close, that won't be happening. The F-150 Lightning can't handle a 4,000 lb pin weight and even if it could, it could only tow it a tiny distance before needing a recharge. Even with a smaller trailer the Lightning wouldn't work for us. With respect to the Mustang, sorry but the Mach-E isn't a Mustang - no engine noise, no manual gearbox, no convertible .......

 

Therefore, Ford picking 2 of our 3 favourite models to introduce BEV's has not encouraged us to jump onto the BEV bandwagon. The nameplate means nothing, I will only purchase if the vehicle capability meets our needs. 

[jpd80]

45 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Don't mistake reporting by the press as gospel as to what Ford wanted to do with Oakville....I think you would have learned with the amount of time here that you've been here what the press reports and says isn't always accurate and well Ford changes their plans at times too.

Absolutely , the press sweat on Ford for any contradictory comments but would be the first to criticise Ford for not changing plans in the face of changing circumstances.

 

 

Quote

 

Not sure if the EV has actually changed that much in the past three years either. The only thing we know that is kinda confirmed is that it go pushed back 18 months because of apparent battery supply issues, but we also heard that the styling went down like a lead balloon, so who knows, maybe they took the extra time to try and unfuck that. 
 

The vehicles have definitely changes a few times in the last three years, from VW based MEB utilities to three row utilities transferred from Cuautitlan because of concerns over Mach E not having enough production space, to then being changed to swoopy three row crossovers to improve battery range. 
 

A lot of those changes are down to Ford thinking it can do a better job with in-house product, then changing the size of the vehicle to justify a higher price and to better match government incentives, finally changing away from a Explorer competitor to something that replaces midsized cars/crossovers/utilities that have gone or are going away. Ford has gone from a transition to BEVs methodology to competing less with remaining Ford Blue products….so for Oakville BEVs, we’re back to ‘premium priced products’ that don’t compete with ICEs and hybrids.

Edited September 17, 2023 by jpd80

[DeluxeStang]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Don't mistake reporting by the press as gospel as to what Ford wanted to do with Oakville....I think you would have learned with the amount of time here that you've been here what the press reports and says isn't always accurate and well Ford changes their plans at times too.

 

Not sure if the EV has actually changed that much in the past three years either. The only thing we know that is kinda confirmed is that it go pushed back 18 months because of apparent battery supply issues, but we also heard that the styling went down like a lead balloon, so who knows, maybe they took the extra time to try and unfuck that. 

 

To be real, there isn't much they could change about the design with an 18 month delay, maybe a new bumper or something, but they wouldn't have time to redesign the entire car. I'm scared, I've heard so many bad things about the design that I'm convinced it has to be terrible. 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

To be real, there isn't much they could change about the design with an 18 month delay, maybe a new bumper or something, but they wouldn't have time to redesign the entire car. I'm scared, I've heard so many bad things about the design that I'm convinced it has to be terrible. 

The 18 month delay occurred well before design lock in, so there there was plenty

of time to change things and in fact, the project number was changed with the move

to Oakville. The story goes that it changed from a three row boxy Explorer sized utility 

to a three row low roof crossover…

Edited September 17, 2023 by jpd80

[rperez817]

On 9/16/2023 at 5:04 PM, jpd80 said:

No where in that plan does it say anything about attracting customers - that I see is the biggest issue.

 

That's intrinsic to Item 1 in Ford's plan, "Embrace a totally different paradigm for design, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing of BEV compared to the "old world" of ICE vehicles", particularly the marketing component. Now that the transition to BEV in Ford's largest markets (North America, Europe, and China) is well into the "mass adoption" phase, Ford's marketing efforts for Model e should include educating prospective consumers about the benefits and logistical details of replacing an ICE powered vehicle with a BEV generally, along with highlighting the competitive advantages of Ford BEV in particular.

 

Jim Farley acknowledges this. He said the following in an interview on PBS last month.

It's actually not much different than the Model T, when we had to teach people to drive because they're coming off a horse. I think the industry has a huge education to do.

 

 

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

That's intrinsic to Item 1 in Ford's plan, "Embrace a totally different paradigm for design, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing of BEV compared to the "old world" of ICE vehicles", particularly the marketing component. Now that the transition to BEV in Ford's largest markets (North America, Europe, and China) is well into the "mass adoption" phase, Ford's marketing efforts for Model e should include educating prospective consumers about the benefits and logistical details of replacing an ICE powered vehicle with a BEV generally, along with highlighting the competitive advantages of Ford BEV in particular.

No, it’s not intrinsic, the Ford plan is all about doing new and differnt things while hoping enough buyers come along, that is why counting on mass adoption to get their plan over the line is cart before the horse. The only place that mass adoption occurs is where government intervention forces people to buy  BEVs.

 

 

Quote

 

Jim Farley acknowledges this. He said the following in an interview on PBS last month.

 

Quote

It's actually not much different than the Model T, when we had to teach people to drive because they'recoming off a horse. I think the industry has a huge education to do.

 

I think that quite arrogant and self serving, education is only possible with appropriate products and to date, most buyers are walking away from Ford’s BEV offering……..Ford needs to educate itself because clearly, their products aren’t attracting enough buyers.

Edited September 18, 2023 by jpd80

[akirby]

4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

 

 

I think that quite arrogant and self serving, education is only possible with appropriate products and to date, most buyers are walking away from Ford’s BEV offering……..Ford needs to educate itself because clearly, their products aren’t attracting enough buyers.

It’s not arrogant it’s 100% correct.  You don’t drive BEVs the same as ICE in terms of recharging vs refueling or even braking.  You charge more frequently and not necessarily to 100% each time.  The general public (beyond the early adopters) don’t seem to understand this yet.

[Sherminator98]

38 minutes ago, akirby said:

It’s not arrogant it’s 100% correct.  You don’t drive BEVs the same as ICE in terms of recharging vs refueling or even braking.  You charge more frequently and not necessarily to 100% each time.  The general public (beyond the early adopters) don’t seem to understand this yet.

 

The other thing is there is already a in built fear of something new. Then add in some deliberate misinformation being fed to the public about EVs also. 

 

I heard it at the All Ford Cars and Coffee today with someone bitching about the Mach E and how the government can control you with an EV, etc, yet Mr big brain never considered that pretty much any new car post 2020 or so has a software upgradable ECUs connected to a network (internet or cellular) that the "big bad government" can shut your car off with or just cut the power off at the local gas station. 

 

There does need to be more education about EVs at a very basic level to help else people buying them and I think Ford and other need to work on that. It is different (which already will already turn off a lot of people), but necessary to explain why it is different.  

[Rick73]

29 minutes ago, akirby said:

It’s not arrogant it’s 100% correct.  You don’t drive BEVs the same as ICE in terms of recharging vs refueling or even braking.  You charge more frequently and not necessarily to 100% each time.  The general public (beyond the early adopters) don’t seem to understand this yet.

I’m not sure it’s as simple as lack of understanding or education on how BEVs work.  Based on very small sample, I’m confused by why the wives of two BEV early adopters dislike driving their husband’s BEV even though they wouldn’t have to charge them, and are very familiar with the cars and how they operate.  Both said they just avoid driving them, preferring their ICE.  For reference, driving husband’s vehicles wasn’t an issue before they adopted BEVs so it’s not a personal thing.

 

A couple of days ago I heard on a radio talk show that manufacturers were considering adding back buttons on dash so drivers do not have to depend on touch screens as much.  The guy may have been all BS, but I can see some people not warming up to a single large screen in center of vehicle.  Anyway, there may be things about BEVs that turn some people off that has less to do with electric propulsion and more about how BEVs are designed in general.

[akirby]

17 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The other thing is there is already a in built fear of something new. Then add in some deliberate misinformation being fed to the public about EVs also. 

 

I heard it at the All Ford Cars and Coffee today with someone bitching about the Mach E and how the government can control you with an EV, etc, yet Mr big brain never considered that pretty much any new car post 2020 or so has a software upgradable ECUs connected to a network (internet or cellular) that the "big bad government" can shut your car off with or just cut the power off at the local gas station. 

 

There does need to be more education about EVs at a very basic level to help else people buying them and I think Ford and other need to work on that. It is different (which already will already turn off a lot of people), but necessary to explain why it is different.  

Education will not help the conspiracy crowd.  They use government control as the reason to reject anything they don’t like including masks, vaccines and EVs.  The rest are just ignorant and only seek confirmation bias with articles about fires and range issues.  

[Rick73]

23 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

The other thing is there is already a in built fear of something new.

Maybe, but you should consider not blaming resistance to everything you like on “fear of change”.  Obviously some people don’t like change, but most like change just fine when it benefits them, while simultaneously hating stuff they don’t like.  There’s a difference.

 

 

[akirby]

13 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

I’m not sure it’s as simple as lack of understanding or education on how BEVs work.  Based on very small sample, I’m confused by why the wives of two BEV early adopters dislike driving their husband’s BEV even though they wouldn’t have to charge them, and are very familiar with the cars and how they operate.  Both said they just avoid driving them, preferring their ICE.  For reference, driving husband’s vehicles wasn’t an issue before they adopted BEVs so it’s not a personal thing.

 

A couple of days ago I heard on a radio talk show that manufacturers were considering adding back buttons on dash so drivers do not have to depend on touch screens as much.  The guy may have been all BS, but I can see some people not warming up to a single large screen in center of vehicle.  Anyway, there may be things about BEVs that turn some people off that has less to do with electric propulsion and more about how BEVs are designed in general.

That’s true but most of the naysayers have never even driven a BEV so that’s not the issue.

 

The button thing is a problem with all vehicles.  Touching the screen once isn’t bad - even with buttons you have to look to make sure you have the right one.  The problem is when you have to go through menus.  
 

Our Nautilus is the best of both worlds.  it has a 12” widescreen with a small inset screen on the right so you can be on the audio screen and still get a small nav screen or climate buttons for heated steering wheel.  If you switch to Nav the inset switches to audio.  It works great.  The climate controls are all buttons on the front of the console.  Having the climate control buttons on the bottom of the screen would be a good compromise.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

There does need to be more education about EVs at a very basic level to help else people buying them and I think Ford and other need to work on that. It is different (which already will already turn off a lot of people), but necessary to explain why it is different.  

 

For sure. Educational initiatives from Ford can focus not only on explaining how BEV is different, but also why they're better including the advantages that Ford BEV have over BEV from other manufacturers. Once a consumer gets a Ford BEV, they're generally very satisfied with their vehicle (both F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E have some of the highest levels of customer satisfaction of any Ford product in recent years). But consumers have to make the "initial leap of faith" into owning or leasing a BEV first, as J.D. Power described.

 

“Making the initial leap of faith into owning a BEV is proving to be very satisfying,” said Brent Gruber, senior director of global automotive at J.D. Power. “We know from our research that many consumers have concerns during the purchase consideration process with aspects like battery range and vehicle charging. However, once someone has purchased a BEV, they’re pretty much hooked. What will keep first-time owners coming back to buy another BEV is the compelling experience with the safety and technology features, lower service and maintenance costs, and pure driving enjoyment. The new BEVs from traditional brands are helping to attract even more first-time buyers.”

 

So the big thing for Ford is to educate 2 main groups of consumers on the fundamentals of BEV at a basic level, as well as why a Ford BEV is the best choice.

1. People who currently own Ford ICE vehicles (or have owned 1 or more in the past) and haven't yet experienced a BEV from any manufacturer, such as the original poster in this thread
2. People who dismissed Ford products from consideration in the past prior to the introduction of Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, and E-Transit

 

 

[Rick73]

33 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

So the big thing for Ford is to educate 2 main groups of consumers on the fundamentals of BEV at a basic level, as well as why a Ford BEV is the best choice.

1. People who currently own Ford ICE vehicles (or have owned 1 or more in the past) and haven't yet experienced a BEV from any manufacturer, such as the original poster in this thread
2. People who dismissed Ford products from consideration in the past prior to the introduction of Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, and E-Transit

Buyers don’t need marketing-based education to know Lightning and Mach-E are expensive, or E-Transit with useable range under 100 miles won’t work for them.  The product has to speak for itself in real tangible ways first.  I like BEVs a lot, and would buy one as a second car for local trips under right conditions, but other than Tesla 3 or Y, there’s nothing I would even consider today for various reasons.  Cost are high, pending charging change, affect on marginal grid, unknown depreciation, etc.  I may be wrong, but feel I already know plenty, if not too much, so that education on why I should buy a BEV as my next vehicle won’t work.  And I like BEVs, so imagine those on fence or that dislike them based on politics.

[jpd80]

9 hours ago, akirby said:

It’s not arrogant it’s 100% correct.  You don’t drive BEVs the same as ICE in terms of recharging vs refueling or even braking.  You charge more frequently and not necessarily to 100% each time.  The general public (beyond the early adopters) don’t seem to understand this yet.

Ford has a big problem here, the general public was supposed to be way more advanced in accepting BEVs.

So Ford going a million miles an hour building massive BEV infrastructure particularly for a new mass produced

BEV F Truck is all on Farley misreading early adopters. Those early adopters loaded Ford’s reservations but today, 

the present Lightning or Mach E hasn’t moved the sales needle from a comparative dribble (70,000 sales a year).

 

This is real cart before the horse stuff, how do you convince people that are not interested in BEVs?

It’s more than education when a significant portion of the public has been indoctrinated to think

a certain way by current politics, it’s basically devolved into  tribal love/hate for BEVs.

 

A you’re right, many people who hate BEVs have never driven one

and probably never will because of other issues……

 

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by jpd80

[Sherminator98]

4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Ford has a big problem here, the general public was supposed to be way more advanced in accepting BEVs.

So Ford going a million miles an hour building massive BEV infrastructure particularly for a new mass produced

BEV F Truck is all on Farley misreading early adopters. Those early adopters loaded Ford’s reservations but today, 

the present Lightning or Mach E hasn’t moved the sales needle from a comparative dribble (70,000 sales a year).

 

This is real cart before the horse stuff, how do you convince people that are not interested in BEVs?

It’s more than education when a significant portion of the public has been indoctrinated to think

a certain way by current politics, it’s basically devolved into  tribal love/hate for BEVs.

 

A you’re right, many people who hate BEVs have never driven one

and probably never will because of other issues……

 

Here lies the issue-what the expectation vs reality is two different things-Ford said they want to sell about 15% of their total world sales in EVs in the next few years. That is roughly 600K vehicles or 80% of what the F-series sells a year in NA.

 

In the grand scheme of things I think that is doable, esp with the EU forcing EV sales...but its going to take at least 5-7 years before they hit the tipping point unless reporting of EV sales (in NA at least) is completely borked. 

[jpd80]

48 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Here lies the issue-what the expectation vs reality is two different things-Ford said they want to sell about 15% of their total world sales in EVs in the next few years. That is roughly 600K vehicles or 80% of what the F-series sells a year in NA.

 

In the grand scheme of things I think that is doable, esp with the EU forcing EV sales...but its going to take at least 5-7 years before they hit the tipping point unless reporting of EV sales (in NA at least) is completely borked. 

I mostly agree with your take on the situation

 

What annoys me is that some here quote Ford as having a 2 million run rate for BEV production by 2026 and try to assume that will be 2 million sales - that sort of expectation is wholly unrealistic.

 

What Ford does next with Mach E and Lightning will be interesting, Transit EV at less than 2,000/month is similar- how to get fleets to buy in.