Sherminator98 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 4 hours ago, jpd80 said: See, this is what happens when rich multinationals export all their noxious industries to another country, they get to claim they’re clean and green while the west keeps chastising China for takin all their Jebs….. The thing is in the mid term (10 years or so) China is going to have some major issues-many companies are reshoring manufacturing back closer to home due to the shitshow that COVID did to the supply chains. Then they'll also be hit with demographic issues (aging population) and they are also going to be getting rocked by economic issues in the shorter term-like overbuilding housing and other things. The other thing that is going to cause some major issues with deglobalization is shipping-with the US Navy pulling back and focusing mostly the Pacific instead of the whole world, insurance rates will skyrocket once an incident happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 (edited) On 10/12/2023 at 8:55 PM, silvrsvt said: The thing is in the mid term (10 years or so) China is going to have some major issues-many companies are reshoring manufacturing back closer to home due to the shitshow that COVID did to the supply chains. Then they'll also be hit with demographic issues (aging population) and they are also going to be getting rocked by economic issues in the shorter term-like overbuilding housing and other things. I’ve been thinking about what you wrote above Im not sure how many companies will be repatriated back to home companies, it seems like many were sent to China for improved profits and to avoid ever tightening emission regulations. So while some critical parts manufacturing will find it way back to USA and Europe, things like steel manufacturing and major battery plants ect probably won’t. As for Aging population, that seems to be happening everywhere including North America and Europe, so those social problems and financial burdens will be worldwide. It will be interesting to see how house building is affected in Europe and North America, more financial rules yes but will the cost of owning a home slowly elude the next generation. Quote The other thing that is going to cause some major issues with deglobalization is shipping-with the US Navy pulling back and focusing mostly the Pacific instead of the whole world, insurance rates will skyrocket once an incident happens. Deglobalisation is an interesting concept but I have a feeling that the multinationals have a short memory, especially when they were the ones benefiting the most out of covid induced shortages. Edited October 16, 2023 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherminator98 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 2 hours ago, jpd80 said: I’ve been thinking about what you wrote above Im not sure how many companies will be repatriated back to home companies, it seems like many were sent to China for improved profits and to avoid ever tightening emission regulations. So while some critical parts manufacturing will find it way back to USA and Europe, things like steel manufacturing and major battery plants ect probably won’t. Here's the thing though-if they don't move back from China (or more friendly countries), you might wind up with a situation where China is so politically destabilized that it can't send items overseas. Some things will be moved to other countries like Mexico and India for cheaper manufacturing. In the USA, we are apparently in the biggest expansion of manufacturing facilities since WW2, due to all battery plants and computer chip manufacturing facilities being built here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, jpd80 said: ...As for Aging population, that seems to be happening everywhere including North America and Europe, so those social problems and financial burdens will be worldwide. It will be interesting to see how house building is affected in Europe and North America, more financial rules yes but will the cost of owning a home slowly elude the next generation. For the remainder of this century, many countries will face demographic challenges both with still-rapidly growing populations (in South Asia and Africa) and declining, aging populations (pretty much everywhere else). But for countries in the latter category, there's everywhere else and then there's China. I strongly urge you to click on this link and look at the first moving graph that shows population projections over the course of the next 75 years, a period of time in which China's population is cut in half. Something like that has never occurred in the course of human history except in the face of catastrophic wars, famines or disease. Now, the thing to remember is that these are projections, not predictions. Demography typically surprises one way or another, because it is based on the most personal decisions of individuals on whether to grow a family, whether to emigrate, whether people in other countries want to immigrate (and are permitted to do so), and of course whether unforeseen events pop up like, well, wars, famines or disease. One thing written in stone, however, is a country's current demographic pyramid -- that is, how many people are in what age and sex groups -- and China's is unlike any other, having been influenced by the country's previous one-child policy that has ballooned the portion of the population now beyond child-bearing age and has skewed the population toward men (who don't have kids) thanks to female infanticide and the use of abortion for sex selection. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-demographics-challenges/ Edited October 16, 2023 by Gurgeh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 (edited) Yes, that’s where China was probably heading had it not changed policy in 2015 and still hard to see any improvement in 2023 when it’s less than ten years later, we just don’t know if they left it too late…. I don’t know about you but I’m not interested in what happens in 75 years or rather, I’m more interested in the next 20 years and whether that communist rule slowly dies. Edited October 16, 2023 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ausrutherford Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Another interesting stat. Near the collapse of the Soviet Union, it had a larger population than the US and Canada combined. By 2050, the US will have nearly triple the population of Russia itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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