Ford Pro, $80 billion Beast Under the Hood

[Bob Rosadini]

So said an extensive   Seeking Alpha article posted 5/4.  Per Morgan Stanley analyst...."Pro could hypothetically be worth $80 billion as a stand -alone."

 

And Farley has crowed about Ford's position in class 1-7 trucks.  Sounds good until you go to Ford Pro site and surf.   Looks like a Hollywood movie set-open the door and nothing is there.   Case in point..you want specs?  Lists medium duty specs for 2023!  I could go on but why bother.  All fluff and no substance.  If it is as profitable, can you imagine how it could be if they were really interested in anything beyond 550.  

 

And I know, class 6 and 7 are a relatively small market..but if you truly want to "talk the talk " about being the number 1 commercial vendor, you better wake up before your competitors do. 

 

If I were a dealer had had to spend all that money to qualify with service bays with 14 ft doors, expanded hours ect. ect., I would want the opportunity to compete across the board..not just in high roof Transits.

 

Kool Aid fans,  Fire away!😎

 

 

[7Mary3]

There is no denying Ford's overall strength in commercial vehicle sales.  What is interesting is while Farley talks about Ford's overall position in class 1-7 truck sales, the reality is that the bulk of Ford's commercial sales is coming from the Transit and class 1-5 F series trucks.  Ford is a niche player in class 6-7 and I just don't see any reason for Ford to go beyond that as it would take considerable investment for a likely very modest return,  if not a loss for that matter.  Also consider that Ford is having trouble keeping up with SD 250 through 450 demand.  How long before some Ford exec. says in a meeting "you know if we drop the 650 and 750 we can build x more 250's and 350's"?

 

FWIW, a very quick check of the Ford Pro dealers in my area show very few 650's and 750's in stock, most are left over 2024's.  My local dealer has none, Galpin has one.  This is not really surprising considering 2025 diesel 650 and 750 models are not availble in California.  I have also heard talk that orders for new 650's and 750's require 6 month or longer lead times.  I did see several hundred F53 chassis in inventory, looks like Ford is doing well in that business.  Plenty of 150 through 550 F series and Transits too.

 

If you think about it, the Transit is really the star of the Ford Pro show.  It sells in huge numbers, it's highly profitable from what I understand, has limited competition (just the Ram Promaster), and is leveraged by high sales in Europe.  It's easy for any Ford dealer to sell and service too.  And there is a BEV version.  Sure the 250-600 Super Duty is a commercial winner too, but it faces intense competition externally from GM and Ram and internally from non-commercial private sales.

 

        

[Bob Rosadini]

23 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

There is no denying Ford's overall strength in commercial vehicle sales.  What is interesting is while Farley talks about Ford's overall position in class 1-7 truck sales, the reality is that the bulk of Ford's commercial sales is coming from the Transit and class 1-5 F series trucks.  Ford is a niche player in class 6-7 and I just don't see any reason for Ford to go beyond that as it would take considerable investment for a likely very modest return,  if not a loss for that matter.  Also consider that Ford is having trouble keeping up with SD 250 through 450 demand.  How long before some Ford exec. says in a meeting "you know if we drop the 650 and 750 we can build x more 250's and 350's"?

 

FWIW, a very quick check of the Ford Pro dealers in my area show very few 650's and 750's in stock, most are left over 2024's.  My local dealer has none, Galpin has one.  This is not really surprising considering 2025 diesel 650 and 750 models are not availble in California.  I have also heard talk that orders for new 650's and 750's require 6 month or longer lead times.  I did see several hundred F53 chassis in inventory, looks like Ford is doing well in that business.  Plenty of 150 through 550 F series and Transits too.

 

If you think about it, the Transit is really the star of the Ford Pro show.  It sells in huge numbers, it's highly profitable from what I understand, has limited competition (just the Ram Promaster), and is leveraged by high sales in Europe.  It's easy for any Ford dealer to sell and service too.  And there is a BEV version.  Sure the 250-600 Super Duty is a commercial winner too, but it faces intense competition externally from GM and Ram and internally from non-commercial private sales.

 

23 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

  Well I know we disagree on just how much it would cost to tweak 650/750😎.  I guess key point is  what does "tweak" mean?  While many think the cab is too small to compete with the competition, how about air brakes?  That is BS IMO that they can't "re-engineer" something that was in the Blue Diamond trucks- just as an example. 

As as to  your point I've hi-lighted,  I believe you have frequently  commented on GM's possible return to class 7, and Ram's ambitions as well-  did they not recently  announce their own "Pro" unit?.."monkey see, monkey do".   As for building "More 250's, 350's"' that for sure was Jac's point.  But if the competition recognizes the potential of the "pro" market, and they do, will they sit back and be content with class 1-5?  In particular when you look at the driver issue, as long as the CDL issue makes class 6 an attraction. Ford should not ignore that.

 

And by the way, seems Prime keeps upgrading their "final destination" fleet.   Seems like at first it was all vans-Pro masters, Transits, etc.  then I  start seeing DRW transits with boxes.  Lately at least around here I have see Petes-and judging by box and tire size, not sure if they are class 6 or 7

 

[7Mary3]

Chevy did return to class 7, but they did it wisely by simply branding and distributing the Shyft manufactured Cummins/Allison powered Isuzu FVT.  And they seem to be doing quite well with a truck they didn't have to spend any money to develop or build in their own plants.  Partnering with Navistar for class 4 through 6 conventionals was also a great idea, leveraging a partnership to lower development and manufacturing costs.  If GM at some point decides to expand offerings in the class 7 market, most likely it will be with either Navistar or Isuzu.

 

I think Ram is out, the European overlords of what is left of Chrysler do not seem to be the least bit interested in the U.S. commercial market.  I am not sure how committed they are to the U.S. market in general. 

 

Both Ford Pro and GM Evolve seem to be primarily about providing commercial customers with aftersale vehicle management support.  For Ford and GM this can be a substantial revenue stream for the life of a commercial vehicle.  Of course it's about selling vehicles as well, but it seems the emphasis is much more on marketing existing vehicles to commercial customers rather than developing vehicles specifically for commercial applications.  

[Joe771476]

On 5/12/2024 at 11:19 AM, Bob Rosadini said:

 

 

The reason for dropping class 8 was the same. We can make more class 1-5. It almost destroyed class 6 -7. I promise you, if Ford drops class 6-7, class 1 -5 will suffer. A lot of businesses like to stay with one manufacturer/dealer. Just one example is landscaping/tree cutting companies. I know one guy who buys all Fords, from class 2 thru 7. I've said this before and I'll say it again. When Ford dropped class 8, CL&P (now Eversource) and the MDC here in Hartford started buying non-Ford trucks in class 1-7 and also stopped buying strictly Ford CARS only. CT DOT similar story. A full line producer is cars and trucks class 1 - 8. That was around the time Daimler owned Chrysler. Daimler/Freightliner told their customers, "Hey we can fulfill ALL your needs!  We have cars, vans, pickups, medium duty and heavy duty vehicles. Like Bob R. says, class 6-7 is doing well.......BY ACCIDENT! Imagine if they got off their rears and went full tilt into 6-7  AND re-entered class 8???!!!  That's how you grow business!  PACCAR (KW and Pete), International, and Daimler/Freightliner don't sell cars (except for Mercedes). Does anybody get it?!