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Ford CFO John Lawler Concerned About Rising Inventory


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1 hour ago, akirby said:


If the dealer sets them properly.

 

Retail orders use 03-19 priority codes and stock orders 20-80. The scheduling system looks at priority codes first and selects orders with the lowest priority codes first based on commodity constraint compliance. You know better!

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34 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

Retail orders use 03-19 priority codes and stock orders 20-80. The scheduling system looks at priority codes first and selects orders with the lowest priority codes first based on commodity constraint compliance. You know better!


But I’ve seen dealers use stock prioririties for retail orders.  Most often trying to game the ok to buy restriction to get a new model earlier (which is stupid and doesn’t work because they hold all those anyway).

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44 minutes ago, ice-capades said:

 

Retail orders use 03-19 priority codes and stock orders 20-80. The scheduling system looks at priority codes first and selects orders with the lowest priority codes first based on commodity constraint compliance. You know better!

Iliterally just saw a priority 19 show a scheduled build date....I give up...............

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3 hours ago, akirby said:


But I’ve seen dealers use stock prioririties for retail orders.  Most often trying to game the ok to buy restriction to get a new model earlier (which is stupid and doesn’t work because they hold all those anyway).

 

Yeah, there are Dealers that do that but as you stated it works against them because everything gets held at the plant until the OTB and shipping release. 

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I see that F Series is now +210,000 so all of Ford’s talk about controlling inventory levels is out the window.

I guess the next move will be to stuff dealerships with stock and then add incentives as required to move them…

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7 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

Product mix can be blamed all day long, but the fact that new vehicle prices have increased on average $10,000 since 2020 coupled with high interest rates might also play a part in inventory sitting on dealers lots.

If you think about it, “pink polka dot” vehicle production is something of Ford’s own making, not customer orders.

Were back to the same old same old, Ford producing weirdo model versions that few want, they need to stop

assuming they know what buyers want and ask dealers what’s needed in their location, go back to what works.

and yes, it’s safe to assume generally higher prices are turning off enough buyer for Ford to notice.

Edited by jpd80
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On 6/13/2024 at 11:16 AM, Deanh said:

we just caught an order put ion by Ford for us on 2025 Explorers....every one had the $6000 painted black roof....that option is a flooring red flag ( Icecapades will understand that statement )

I can see why you would be worried about this option.  It may be great looking but it is a really expensive option for what it is, and I'm not sure many customers are going to be willing to pay it.  

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On 6/14/2024 at 9:36 PM, 2005Explorer said:

Product mix can be blamed all day long, but the fact that new vehicle prices have increased on average $10,000 since 2020 coupled with high interest rates might also play a part in inventory sitting on dealers lots.

I think this is the biggest factor.  

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20 hours ago, tbone said:

I think this is the biggest factor.  

I’d be curious to do a review of the +210,000 F Series inventory to check two things

1. General pricing of built to stock vehicles

2. The options and trim mix of those vehicles.

 

It just feels like Ford is still in One Ford mentality thinking that the majority of buyers will like x y or z

when so many buyers need to feel customisation, like the vehicle was designed for them.

When people are told it is what it is take it or leave it, a lot will walk…that’s how it feels

especially when people are counting how much cash they have and interest being charged.

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39 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I’d be curious to do a review of the +210,000 F Series inventory to check two things

1. General pricing of built to stock vehicles

2. The options and trim mix of those vehicles.

 

It just feels like Ford is still in One Ford mentality thinking that the majority of buyers will like x y or z

when so many buyers need to feel customisation, like the vehicle was designed for them.

When people are told it is what it is take it or leave it, a lot will walk…that’s how it feels

especially when people are counting how much cash they have and interest being charged.


i understand what you are saying.  I personally order every vehicle my for my wife and I. That isn’t necessarily case for the vehicles I have bought for my kids.  Those came off the lot.  
 

it seems like if you buy the highest trim level you typically want every available option, but it would be interesting to see if the trim mixes are part of the reason for the slower sales.

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10 hours ago, tbone said:


i understand what you are saying.  I personally order every vehicle my for my wife and I. That isn’t necessarily case for the vehicles I have bought for my kids.  Those came off the lot.  
 

it seems like if you buy the highest trim level you typically want every available option, but it would be interesting to see if the trim mixes are part of the reason for the slower sales.

Around here the local dealers can sell an STX 4x4 with a V8 off the transport truck while the optioned out high end trims which can cost up to $20k more sit around. It's not that they don't stock STXs or lower optioned XLTs it's just that they sell fast. Now different areas have different income demographics and different customers. I live in a very rural area and for the country folk they still really like V8s for pickups that end up in small towns or out at the farm or ranch.

 

I'd say getting the right product/price matters a lot on the local market. Just the fact that RAM and Toyota have completely gotten rid of the V8 option (Not to mention RAM and Toyota have generally lost their mind with pricing) will push some of those customers to Ford or GM products in the 1/2 ton market.

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45 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said:

Around here the local dealers can sell an STX 4x4 with a V8 off the transport truck while the optioned out high end trims which can cost up to $20k more sit around. It's not that they don't stock STXs or lower optioned XLTs it's just that they sell fast. Now different areas have different income demographics and different customers. I live in a very rural area and for the country folk they still really like V8s for pickups that end up in small towns or out at the farm or ranch.

 

I'd say getting the right product/price matters a lot on the local market. Just the fact that RAM and Toyota have completely gotten rid of the V8 option (Not to mention RAM and Toyota have generally lost their mind with pricing) will push some of those customers to Ford or GM products in the 1/2 ton market.

 

It's up to the dealership to order stock vehicles that satisfy their market demand. 

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2 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

Around here the local dealers can sell an STX 4x4 with a V8 off the transport truck while the optioned out high end trims which can cost up to $20k more sit around. It's not that they don't stock STXs or lower optioned XLTs it's just that they sell fast. Now different areas have different income demographics and different customers. I live in a very rural area and for the country folk they still really like V8s for pickups that end up in small towns or out at the farm or ranch.

 

I'd say getting the right product/price matters a lot on the local market. Just the fact that RAM and Toyota have completely gotten rid of the V8 option (Not to mention RAM and Toyota have generally lost their mind with pricing) will push some of those customers to Ford or GM products in the 1/2 ton market.


I bet they do sell a lot of those higher end trucks just not as fast as the cheaper ones.   If they weren’t selling they wouldn’t be ordering them.

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6 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

It's up to the dealership to order stock vehicles that satisfy their market demand. 

I do wonder if Ford will eventually limit dealers to allocation requests only. Other manufacturers (Toyota) do not allow for custom orders. You can try to request a certain package and color combination for allocation, but by no means is it guaranteed. They just send the dealer an allocation list of vehicles they’ll be receiving and you get what you get. 

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On 6/13/2024 at 1:11 PM, akirby said:


Then you’re in the 20% who would just do a special order.  The chances of finding exactly what you want in the colors you want is pretty rare given all the combinations.

 

I had the opposite problem on our last two MKX/Nautilus.  Nobody had what we wanted in stock within 500 miles with everything we wanted which was a loaded reserve model.  First one we compromised on the engine, wheels and skipped the technology package to take what was in stock.  On the current one we only compromised on the engine getting the 2.0L rather than the 2.7L but I’m ok with that.  
 

It just seems silly that you can get a high end reserve model Lincoln and still be missing options.


That’s a small part on why I didn’t get a truck when my lease expired couldn’t find what I wanted (XLT powerboost Lux max tow package). The only 3 powerboost f-150s the dealer had at the time were already sold and none of them were really what I wanted. 

 

Didn’t matter anyway, the sales guy kept trying to upsell the hell out of me and I wasn’t about to double my monthly payment for a bunch of stuff I didn’t want. 
 

I’ll keep driving my “commodity” product until either the wheels fall off or the transmission needs a second rebuild

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7 hours ago, akirby said:


I bet they do sell a lot of those higher end trucks just not as fast as the cheaper ones.   If they weren’t selling they wouldn’t be ordering them.

I'm not saying they don't sell them, but I've noticed a few of the same Platinum ones sitting there at least 6 months. The fact is sales will continue to go down slowly year after year at this point. If we go by the last 5 years within 5 years the average ATP on a mid-level F150 will hovering around $80k. Middle class just can't swing that anymore. Of course it's exactly what one group in DC wants. Drive prices so high people can no longer own a personal vehicle and have to rely totally on the government for transportation.

Edited by 2005Explorer
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3 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

I'm not saying they don't sell them, but I've noticed a few of the same Platinum ones sitting there at least 6 months. The fact is sales will continue to go down slowly year after year at this point. If we go by the last 5 years within 5 years the average ATP on a mid-level F150 will hovering around $80k. Middle class just can't swing that anymore. Of course it's exactly what one group in DC wants. Drive prices so high people can no longer own a personal vehicle and have to rely totally on the government for transportation.


It is pretty extraordinary how expensive the bread and butter XLTs have gotten.  Affordability continues to be a major concern for me.  

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10 hours ago, blazerdude20 said:

I do wonder if Ford will eventually limit dealers to allocation requests only. Other manufacturers (Toyota) do not allow for custom orders. You can try to request a certain package and color combination for allocation, but by no means is it guaranteed. They just send the dealer an allocation list of vehicles they’ll be receiving and you get what you get. 

 

Allocation is required for scheduling all orders, stock and retail, but retail orders have priority due to the priority codes. There are times when Ford offers scheduling without allocation, but those are for specific vehicle lines and usually for limited periods. Stock orders have limited specifications and option availability, but retail orders can include all specifications and options available in the regular order guides. Retail orders have increased dramatically in the past few years and are an important part of Ford's production mix.   

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11 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


That’s a small part on why I didn’t get a truck when my lease expired couldn’t find what I wanted (XLT powerboost Lux max tow package). The only 3 powerboost f-150s the dealer had at the time were already sold and none of them were really what I wanted. 

 

Why not plan ahead and special order it so you have it at the end of the lease?

 

I wonder how much of these pink poke a dot products are just to keep the assembly line going-for example non hybrid Mavericks or soft top Broncos, because they have shortages in those items. 

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51 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Why not plan ahead and special order it so you have it at the end of the lease?

I've even out of the biz for nearly thirty years now, but isn't that pretty hard to plan OTD's for lease end these days?

I wonder how much of these pink poke a dot products are just to keep the assembly line going-for example non hybrid Mavericks or soft top Broncos, because they have shortages in those items. 

We had that with 2dr Aspires. I was at my dealer the other day for a Works Package, and wandering the lot, I saw that they had eight Broncos; seven were softops w/o insulation. Interestingly, among the compulsory million F150s, they had over a dozen XL 4X4 SuperCabs, all under or right around $50k. Courtesy vehicles? Fleet bubble?

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14 hours ago, blazerdude20 said:

I do wonder if Ford will eventually limit dealers to allocation requests only. Other manufacturers (Toyota) do not allow for custom orders. You can try to request a certain package and color combination for allocation, but by no means is it guaranteed. They just send the dealer an allocation list of vehicles they’ll be receiving and you get what you get. 

 

that sounds ridiculous to me.  Didn't realize Toyota didn't do that.

 

8 hours ago, tbone said:


It is pretty extraordinary how expensive the bread and butter XLTs have gotten.  Affordability continues to be a major concern for me.  

 

My brother said he was taking a look through the local lot and that most of the F-150s on the lot (mostly XLTs, some Lariats) were 70k.  crazy.

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9 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

My brother said he was taking a look through the local lot and that most of the F-150s on the lot (mostly XLTs, some Lariats) were 70k.  crazy.

 

That is one way to drive sales to the Ranger and Maverick...

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44 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

That is one way to drive sales to the Ranger and Maverick...

 

For sure.  He's not actively looking - he was actually looking to see what Escape prices were for his gf - but looked at trucks while he was there.  His '19 F-150 Lariat is doing fine, but he's tired of the SuperCab and would prefer a SuperCrew (he bought it used, and it was a good deal considering the options it had vs. lesser equipped new models).

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I just looked and could not find a single 2wd F150 XLT within 100 miles.

 

I paid $37K for my loaded (back then) 2wd XLT Supercab 3.5l ecoboost.  Due strictly to inflation that’s $46K today.  Add back the $10k I got in rebates and discounts and you’re at $56K.  It’s a combination of more features, less or no discounts and simple inflation.

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