Ford Escape Production to end at Louisville by 2026

[AM222]

11 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Ford can build a lower cost EV than the Escape and make a higher margin. Farley has already stated that Ford’s lowest cost EV will start at $30k and you can bet there won’t be many available at that price. As long as comparable ICE vehicles are available buyers will avoid small EV SUVs in droves. 

I have a feeling that car buyers (who are not limited to Ford-branded vehicles) looking for a brand-new Escape-type vehicle after 2026 would just buy from another brand. 

I still can't understand why Ford couldn't figure out the "One Ford" concept that other carmakers use. 
In the US alone Toyota sold 434,943 Rav4 units in 2023. Ford sold 127,476 Bronco Sport units and 140,968 Escape units in 2023. 

So the Rav4 outsold the Escape and Bronco Sport combined, 434,943 units vs 268,444 units in the US in 2023. Even if you add the Maverick sales numbers (94,058) to the Escape and Bronco Sport, the Rav4 still outsells the three C2 Fords, 434,943 vs 362,502.

*Toyota also sold 1.07 million Rav4s globally in 2023. Imagine if Ford can develop one model that sells that many units globally. If Ford ever does, it probably won't be a BEV, at least not in this decade.

Edited August 30, 2024 by AM222

[92merc]

44 minutes ago, AM222 said:

I have a feeling that car buyers (who are not limited to Ford-branded vehicles) looking for a brand-new Escape-type vehicle after 2026 would just buy from another brand.

The only way dropping the Escape makes any sense to me is if Ford starts to build a new C2 based Edge.  That I would consider over a BS.  But I'm not going EV.  That I'm positive about.  Doesn't fit my use.

 

If not, I'll have to seriously look at a RAV4 myself to replace my 2020 Escape.  Would be the first non-Ford car I've ever bought...

Edited August 30, 2024 by 92merc

[morgan20]

On 8/28/2024 at 11:04 PM, Trader 10 said:

Have you noticed that the Escape has outsold the B Sport by 12,000 units this year?

 

Yea, that's right but a lot of the Escapes are cheapo versions sold to rental car and security fleets. FedEx bought a whole bunch of them for its Global Security Force unit at Indianapolis International Airport

 

[Rick73]

1 hour ago, 92merc said:

If not, I'll have to seriously look at a RAV4 myself to replace my 2020 Escape.  Would be the first non-Ford car I've ever bought...

If it comes to that, you may want to also consider the Honda CR-V.  Car and Driver compared RAV4 versus Honda CR-V and preferred the Honda.  They recommend the Hybrid CR-V even more, though that wasn’t included in direct comparison.  Next to Ford I have owned more Hondas than any other brand, including first generation CR-V, but new one doesn’t appeal to me as much.  It doesn’t look right (not sure why) and standard powertrain with 1.5L turbo and CVT is a deal breaker for me.  If I end up with another CR-V I’d go with hybrid just to avoid turbo and conventional CVT.

[akirby]

First, this investment in EVs is not a 2026 thing - it’s a next 10 year thing so you won’t see huge benefits year 1 regardless.  The question is where does Ford want to be in 2030?  
 

You’re also assuming Escape is highly profitable but I suspect the margin is minimal.  It’s not a gotta have it type vehicle.  Remember what Farley said about commodity 2 row SUVs?  So replacing it with new EVs that pay off 5 years from now may actually be a smart business decision.  No way to tell until it plays out.

 

I also think price is a big factor in sales volume and areas with decent public charging will do well.  Not so much in rural areas for a few more years.  It’s easier to buy a 3rd vehicle when it’s $30k than $60k.

 

Could it be vaporware?  Sure.   Could there not be enough buyers?  Maybe.  
 

But don’t forget they’re also making the Maverick van and potentially other C2 variants so killing escape is making way for more than just the EVs.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, morgan20 said:

 

Yea, that's right but a lot of the Escapes are cheapo versions sold to rental car and security fleets. FedEx bought a whole bunch of them for its Global Security Force unit at Indianapolis International Airport

 

 

So many people don’t understand the difference between sales and profit.  GM was #1 in sales and went bankrupt.  Bronco Sport probably makes 3 times the margin of Escape.  

[02MustangGT]

21 minutes ago, akirby said:

Bronco Sport probably makes 3 times the margin of Escape.  

Because the BS is made in Mexico rather a UAW plant?   

[morgan20]

6 minutes ago, 02MustangGT said:

Because the BS is made in Mexico rather a UAW plant?   

 

Nah, plant location doesn't matter much. Bronco Sport stands out from its competition with its styling and character, Escape doesn't. That means Bronco Sport customers are willing to pay more, and why Bronco Sport probably makes 3 times the margin of Escape 

[bzcat]

There is no concrete plan to replace Escape because Ford won't be replacing the Kuga. So the math doesn't work now for two North American ICE compact CUV... so Ford choose Bronco Sport because it has the Bronco name. But obviously a big problem is now looming for Ford... they will need to dilute the Bronco Sport brand to offer FWD version because majority of CUV sales are FWD.

 

This was always the weak point in Farley's attack the niche product plan... you focus so much on the niche, you end up losing volume on products you need to keep them going, and then you turn around and press your supposed niche product into the mainstream which dilutes that product.

 

Don't forget there is a 3rd horse in the race here... Ford China has Equator Sport that will need replacement too (sold as Territory in some markets). 

 

I don't have a crystal ball but my guess is the Escape name will eventually reappear on an EV and Bronco Sport and Equator Sport will be replaced by the same ICE C2 based model. 

 

 

[02MustangGT]

12 minutes ago, morgan20 said:

 

Nah, plant location doesn't matter much. Bronco Sport stands out from its competition with its styling and character, Escape doesn't. That means Bronco Sport customers are willing to pay more, and why Bronco Sport probably makes 3 times the margin of Escape 

While some of that could be true, I would assume the difference in labor costs in Mexico versus USA/Canada is the most important contributing factor for profit margins between the Escape/BS.  

[bzcat]

16 minutes ago, morgan20 said:

 

Nah, plant location doesn't matter much. Bronco Sport stands out from its competition with its styling and character, Escape doesn't. That means Bronco Sport customers are willing to pay more, and why Bronco Sport probably makes 3 times the margin of Escape 

 

Bronco Sport is only available with AWD and the product mix is heavily tilted towards the high end. This is only possible because Ford has Escape and Maverick to cover the FWD and value-focused buyers. 

 

Not really sure what Ford's plan are now but someone already pointed out in this thread that Ford's volume on the C2 platform has dropped quite significantly and will continue to freefall because Farley is cutting off limbs to feed the extremities... it's not a sustainable strategy. At some point, Bronco Sport won't be profitable either just because the economy of scale starts to go upside down on the remaining lower volume products.

 

 

[AM222]

31 minutes ago, 02MustangGT said:

While some of that could be true, I would assume the difference in labor costs in Mexico versus USA/Canada is the most important contributing factor for profit margins between the Escape/BS.  

Part of it is volume too. Trying to make a profit out of fewer vehicles with higher prices (and in the case of the latest Escape less features) can work sometimes but higher prices (or less features) can also drive some customers away. 

Ford should have built more Bronco Sport SUVs for export or should have built it in a regional plant to serve the Asia-Pacific region. The only other car companies (aside from American brands) that try to make as much profit out of a limited number of units are luxury carmakers. Many luxury car brands sell globally but at lower numbers, American sell many units but mainly in North America.

Edited August 30, 2024 by AM222

[Sherminator98]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

Bronco Sport is only available with AWD and the product mix is heavily tilted towards the high end. This is only possible because Ford has Escape and Maverick to cover the FWD and value-focused buyers. 

Most of the BS on the dealer lot I was at where Big Bend models, but price of the lower end models are $30k plus where the Escape is about 2K less 

[akirby]

Offering fwd street versions of Bronco Sport won’t dilute it as long as they retain the same general styling.  Most people buy the look not the performance.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, 02MustangGT said:

While some of that could be true, I would assume the difference in labor costs in Mexico versus USA/Canada is the most important contributing factor for profit margins between the Escape/BS.  

Nope.  Think about a $35k vehicle with a 4% margin.  That’s only a $1400 net profit.  Throw in a $1500 rebate and you’re losing money.  And Escape competition is fierce so the margin might be a lot less.

 

But Bronco Sport was selling for well over MSRP for awhile and requires no rebates or lowered pricing because it’s unique with very little direct competition.

[Sherminator98]

Small CUV to follow in 2027-28

 

https://fordauthority.com/2024/08/low-cost-ford-ev-crossover-may-appear-after-midsize-pickup/amp/

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

Nope.  Think about a $35k vehicle with a 4% margin.  That’s only a $1400 net profit.  Throw in a $1500 rebate and you’re losing money.  And Escape competition is fierce so the margin might be a lot less.

 

But Bronco Sport was selling for well over MSRP for awhile and requires no rebates or lowered pricing because it’s unique with very little direct competition.

Agree with all you’ve said.

If Ford was wavering on Escape’s future at  Louisville,  I think the UAW agreement sealed its fate.

There's no way that compact utilities can be built economically in the USA but,a similarly sized

 BEV pickup and utility marketed as mid-sized vehicles would be just the hook to excite buyers.

A made in the USA BEV pickup and Utility might be the patriotic answer Ford needs.

 

While Escape remains, the Bronco Sport doesn’t have to cover the whole of the market but,

perhaps an entry level FWD Bronco Sport Escape trim level would be enough to pick up good sales.

People should keep in mind that the Maverick based Transit Connect replacement will probably have

a double cab version which will  definitely add some sales…..

 

Edited August 30, 2024 by jpd80

[T-dubz]

I’d be interested in seeing the bronco sports sales by trim. I see bronco sports all the time, several a day. What do they all have in common? They are all big bends. I’ve seen exactly one outer banks and no badlands. Will a fwd bronco sport dilute it? Hell no 😆. No one is using this for an off road adventure vehicle. It’s just a daily driver that looks cool. There’s also a precedent. The Bronco II didn’t come standard with 4wd for a good portion of its life.

[ausrutherford]

I feel like European sales have(or should have) shown Ford why you can't get rid of your bread and butter vehicles. Hopefully, for that reason, the Escape/Kuga lives on. 

[rmc523]

2 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

I feel like European sales have(or should have) shown Ford why you can't get rid of your bread and butter vehicles. Hopefully, for that reason, the Escape/Kuga lives on. 

Im actually in Scotland right now and I’ve seen a lot of Fiestas and Pumas (which look good btw), I only really seeing a couple of Kugas so far

[akirby]

4 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

I feel like European sales have(or should have) shown Ford why you can't get rid of your bread and butter vehicles. Hopefully, for that reason, the Escape/Kuga lives on. 

How much profit did they make on that full lineup of vehicles vs today?

[joseodiaga4]

5 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Im actually in Scotland right now and I’ve seen a lot of Fiestas and Pumas (which look good btw), I only really seeing a couple of Kugas so far

here in Madrid I see a lot of Kugas, Pumas but not so much Focus and Fiestas.

A lot of Transits too.

[jpd80]

13 hours ago, akirby said:

How much profit did they make on that full lineup of vehicles vs today?

The balance in Europe was upset a bit over a decade ago. Back then, the compact Fords generally sold at about 20% more that what US customers would tolerate, so it kinda worked, especially with a profitable trim mix.
 

I’m resigned to the fact that the wheels fell off the business plan the moment the market switched to utilities and “gave up” on MPVs and small cars. 
 

I am interested in the Equator Sport (formerly Territory) as it looks to be a good package that’s 2” wider and 2” longer than  the Escape.

Could something like this be reworked for North America?

 

Edited September 2, 2024 by jpd80

[ExplorerDude]

On 8/30/2024 at 11:53 AM, bzcat said:

There is no concrete plan to replace Escape because Ford won't be replacing the Kuga. So the math doesn't work now for two North American ICE compact CUV... so Ford choose Bronco Sport because it has the Bronco name. But obviously a big problem is now looming for Ford... they will need to dilute the Bronco Sport brand to offer FWD version because majority of CUV sales are FWD.

 

This was always the weak point in Farley's attack the niche product plan... you focus so much on the niche, you end up losing volume on products you need to keep them going, and then you turn around and press your supposed niche product into the mainstream which dilutes that product.

 

Don't forget there is a 3rd horse in the race here... Ford China has Equator Sport that will need replacement too (sold as Territory in some markets). 

 

I don't have a crystal ball but my guess is the Escape name will eventually reappear on an EV and Bronco Sport and Equator Sport will be replaced by the same ICE C2 based model. 

 

 

No one said Ford wasn’t replacing the Kuga. It will be replaced and not with an EV.

[morgan20]

On 9/1/2024 at 12:52 PM, akirby said:

How much profit did they make on that full lineup of vehicles vs today?

 

I don't think Ford reports earnings by region anymore, they now report by segment. Blue, Model e, Pro, Next, Credit