Explorer EV and Capri Not Selling

[Texasota]

Looking at that chart it looks like nearly all the growth is coming from China. US and Canada looks like very little growth.

[Trader 10]

40 minutes ago, morgan20 said:

 

Yea, I hope the big shots at Ford understand that as well as you do

I think the “big shots” have come to understand that they committed billions of dollars too much to the model e division which probably keeps the division operating in the red the rest of this decade. 

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, bzcat said:

EV demand is not collapsing. Monthly EV sales are setting new record again every month. There was a brief dip in January and February this year and that's where this meme of EV collapsing came from. There were a couple of reason for this but it boils down to people pulling ahead of planned purchases in 2023 due to uncertainty of tax benefits in 2024 in US and China. But most of that was temporary.

The bitter cold event in Chicago in January that made the news all over the world because EVs could not charge fast enough, or at all, probably didn’t help either.  That’s a correctable problem but exposed a weakness many don’t think about or anticipate on their own.

 

As mentioned above by Texasota, most of the growth is associated with China.  ROW data seems relatively flat.  Also, data includes PHEVs which are not quite as effective at reducing GHGs, so we really need to break out BEVs from PHEVs to see what is really going on as it affects Ford, their capital investments, and future plant utilization.

 

Obviously none of this matters much compared to what can change in 2025.

[DeluxeStang]

7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The only reason that Ford is even talking about affordable EVs is because 

its current plant with premium priced EVs is collapsing. Normally, Ford

doesnt like to talk about products that are still a few years out but given

the current market, it has to give investors, Wall Street and potential buyers 

something to look forward to.

 

I would urge people not to get too excited over CE1 developed vehicles,

we know that it’s basically aimed at small mid sized market for pickup,

SUV and possibly a Van. It’s easy to get carried away and think that 

Ford is developing all kinds of wonderful but the reality is that Ford

has  already sunk billions into BOC  that maybe only builds a fraction of

the anticipated  volume that Ford was planning on a few years ago….. 

 

At least $11 Billion was ripped away from Ford Blue ICE project to help 

with immediate funding of the massive BEV production infrastructure

that was begun a couple of years ago, I think some of that will have 

to be reversed given the current economic climate and Ford’s need 

to improve quarterly profits.

You're right, that's an issue I tend to have. I get more excited about the prospect of what could be, than I do about a company's actual product plans. I'm not expecting much at first, just a truck and a compact crossover like you mentioned. I hope those are compelling products in their own right, and it sounds like they will be. 

 

But what really excited me about this platform is the things Ford CAN do with it, the kinds of products hardcore enthusiasts love, but that weren't economically feasible when they were riding on orphan platforms. CE1 has the potential to change all of that. But until ford actually commits to making those sorts of products, it's nothing but a pipe dream. Until then, we just have to appreciate what we're actually gonna get. 

[jpd80]

9 hours ago, akirby said:

Whoa there - they started the skunkworks over 2 years ago well before the EV market changes.  Give them some credit.

I’ll give them credit for recognising cost issues before the market tanked.

The EV market began changing over two years ago, Ford’s high reservation

numbers for Lightning and Mach E seemed to evaporate almost over night

and all the sales enthusiasm  with it.

 

 

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

EV demand is not collapsing. Monthly EV sales are setting new record again every month. There was a brief dip in January and February this year and that's where this meme of EV collapsing came from. There were a couple of reason for this but it boils down to people pulling ahead of planned purchases in 2023 due to uncertainty of tax benefits in 2024 in US and China. But most of that was temporary.

 

EV sales has resumed on the same pace as before and the brief dip in early 2024 will barely register in the long run.  Don't fall for the trap of basing your view on limited (and aged) data. If you zoom out, EV sales are rising in an incontrovertible direction. Sure... a bit slower than some predicted but the big picture didn't change. Don't be fooled by monthly variations... that's just noise in the data. 

 

You misunderstood my post, I was talking about Ford shutting  down its Lightning plant until January because it has a ton of unsold vehicles. Let’s see how US sales of BEVs go if all the tax credits get squashed and the Chinese BEVs get excluded for Europe and North America.

Edited November 23, 2024 by jpd80

[morgan20]

13 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

I think the “big shots” have come to understand that they committed billions of dollars too much to the model e division which probably keeps the division operating in the red the rest of this decade. 

 

The problem with model e ain't that it's operating in the red, that's to be expected. The head honcho correctly compared model e to a startup.

 

The problem is the same 'ol, same 'ol at Ford: the big shots blame anything and everything but themselves when they screw up. Explorer EV and Capri not selling well is a Ford management issue, not a “rapidly deteriorating market conditions for electric vehicles” issue (which is false anyway as bzcat pointed out earlier).

 

Is it design? DeluxeStang makes a good case that may be problematic for Explorer EV and Capri

Is it new product intro/update cadence being too slow? Competitors are giving Ford model e a run for its money with new and redesigned products

Edited November 23, 2024 by morgan20

[Texasota]

20 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

EV demand is not collapsing. Monthly EV sales are setting new record again every month. There was a brief dip in January and February this year and that's where this meme of EV collapsing came from. There were a couple of reason for this but it boils down to people pulling ahead of planned purchases in 2023 due to uncertainty of tax benefits in 2024 in US and China. But most of that was temporary.

 

EV sales has resumed on the same pace as before and the brief dip in early 2024 will barely register in the long run.  Don't fall for the trap of basing your view on limited (and aged) data. If you zoom out, EV sales are rising in an incontrovertible direction. Sure... a bit slower than some predicted but the big picture didn't change. Don't be fooled by monthly variations... that's just noise in the data. 

 

 

This article sheds light on the EV growth in China. It's largely due to suicidal cutthroat competition that will not end well for many Chinese EV manufactures.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-ev-makers-face-die-093000537.html

 

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, Texasota said:

This article sheds light on the EV growth in China. It's largely due to suicidal cutthroat competition that will not end well for many Chinese EV manufactures.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-ev-makers-face-die-093000537.html

 

People don’t see it yet but the Chinese government is running a national competition 

to find the fittest BEV manufacturers, it’s a gladiatorial battle where the winners will

have the whole Chinese domestic market and can then branch out to exports.

 

So yeah, the Chinese BEV automakers are already going through their own domestic 

torture test, so anything western automakers throw at them will be soft ball in comparison.

Europe and North America are just not ready for the coming onslaught and even with

the threat of 100% tariffs, I’m wondering if the Chinese just do it all at cost simply to

take market share away for European and American automakers like the Japanese

manufacturers did in the 70s and 80s.

[jpd80]

Model E cannot do the things that Ford Executives want achieved, that’s the reason why

Farley set up the skunkworks in early 2022, to develop affordable BEVs free of Ford’s usual constraints.

 

The hilarious part of the VW MEB deal is that VW is now cancelling

its own MEB vehicles as failures that don’t sell and cost too much to produce….

 

Looks like VW is running off to Xpeng for the answer…..

Edited November 24, 2024 by jpd80

[Rick73]

European BEV sales in Aug 2024 declined compared to 2023.  German sales in particular according to Reuters.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-car-sales-3-year-low-august-ev-sales-down-439-acea-says-2024-09-19/

 

Comparing first 8 months of 2024 to 2023, it appears hybrid market share grew while BEVs and others declined.  Data below from Reuters article.

 

[bzcat]

 

Car sales in Europe is down overall. The economy there is not doing very well for a variety of reasons.

[Rick73]

15 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

Car sales in Europe is down overall. The economy there is not doing very well for a variety of reasons.

True, there are a variety of reasons.  However, forcing people to buy more expensive vehicles certainly doesn’t help.  It’s an unintended and undesirable consequence of mandates and regulations that force buyers into higher-cost BEVs and PHEVs.

 

Even the cost and therefore sales volume of ICE vehicles are adversely affected indirectly when manufacturers have to subsidize cost of building higher-cost HEVs to achieve fuel economy and emission goals.  It may be a great thing for the environment but can be a drag on economies at same time IMO.

 

IIRC most initial proposals were based on BEVs costing less to own, which had it materialized, may have been good for economies.  However, initial cost projections were way too optimistic, and real total costs are tapping the brakes on the entire adoption process.

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Car sales in Europe is down overall. The economy there is not doing very well for a variety of reasons.

And that will probably exacerbate the slow down in BEV sales with people  choosing

lower priced alternatives, perhaps as a get through for the next few years

[Sherminator98]

The other issue is electricity in the EU costs a lot more then it does in other places in the world

 

I saw an article where someone was driving a Mach E to go some place in the UK and mentioned it cost a pound or two in electrical costs vs 34 pence it would cost in a Mazda 3 or something they normally used. 

[jpd80]

23 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

The other issue is electricity in the EU costs a lot more then it does in other places in the world

 

I saw an article where someone was driving a Mach E to go some place in the UK and mentioned it cost a pound or two in electrical costs vs 34 pence it would cost in a Mazda 3 or something they normally used. 

Also a lot more on street parking in Europe and a bigger push 

on things like public charging, converting gas stations to Electric

[morgan20]

On 11/22/2024 at 10:12 PM, Rick73 said:

The bitter cold event in Chicago in January that made the news all over the world because EVs could not charge fast enough, or at all, probably didn’t help either. 

 

That event didn't hurt EV sales in Illinois. By the end of Q2 2024, EV market share increased in that state to over 7%. In my home state of Indiana, EV market share is a lot lower at 4.43%

 

[jpd80]

Europe and Germany in particular saw a nose dive in BEV sales last month

and completely understandable with the ending of BEV subsidies, it’s like

buyers woke up and s realised just how expensive BEV ownership is.

 

Its not just Ford seeing poor BEV sales in Europe, just about every other

 EV manufacturer saw figures slide alarmingly. Amazing how  sobering 

the effect of sales drying up has on auto company chiefs, it’s like they

can see their whole world ending…..

[Sherminator98]

16 hours ago, morgan20 said:

 

That event didn't hurt EV sales in Illinois. By the end of Q2 2024, EV market share increased in that state to over 7%. In my home state of Indiana, EV market share is a lot lower at 4.43%

 

 

Kinda interesting to note that most of the states that are on the smaller side with large populations are the ones with bigger penetration of EV sales. 

[AM222]

6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Its not just Ford seeing poor BEV sales in Europe, just about every other

 EV manufacturer saw figures slide alarmingly.

Other manufacturers are keeping their ICE/hybrid models longer than originally planned as a response to the slow-down of BEV sales. Ford just got too excited to go all in on EVs that it started killing its popular ICE models prematurely.
 

[Rick73]

6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Europe and Germany in particular saw a nose dive in BEV sales last month

and completely understandable with the ending of BEV subsidies, it’s like

buyers woke up and s realised just how expensive BEV ownership is.

The promise of BEVs being lower-cost to help offset their inherent inconvenience associated with charging and limited range has not materialized yet, and IMO consumers are an impatient group.  Mostly though, hybrids have improved to the point of offering greater value, so why buy a more expensive BEV at all?

 

As an example, if we compare a Tesla Model 3 to either Accord or Camry hybrid, the HEVs are definitely less expensive.  Energy cost is where BEVs are strongest, and even there a Model 3 at present gas prices for my location cost as much or more.  I just filled up at $2.399 per gallon, and at over 45 MPG (actual MotorWeek test data for Accord over 7,000 miles of driving), gas cost is between 5 and 6 cents per mile.  That’s as good as charging a Model 3 at home at my electricity rate, and much lower if charging away from home.

 

Model 3 BEV also cost more to buy, more to insure, and depreciates faster.  Accord range is over 500 miles and can be filled in 5 minutes.  As much as I want to be able to justify a new BEV, I can’t.  Eventually I believe BEVs can be cost-competitive, but we are not close yet.

[Biker16]

On 11/23/2024 at 7:18 PM, jpd80 said:

Model E cannot do the things that Ford Executives want achieved, that’s the reason why

Farley set up the skunkworks in early 2022, to develop affordable BEVs free of Ford’s usual constraints.

 

The hilarious part of the VW MEB deal is that VW is now cancelling

its own MEB vehicles as failures that don’t sell and cost too much to produce….

 

Looks like VW is running off to Xpeng for the answer…..

This is exclusively for China and excludes the US and Europe. 

 

On 11/25/2024 at 12:33 PM, bzcat said:

 

Car sales in Europe is down overall. The economy there is not doing very well for a variety of reasons.

Something about a massive war on the continent, driving energy prices, and cost of living through the roof has something to do about it. 
 

On 11/25/2024 at 7:40 PM, Sherminator98 said:

The other issue is electricity in the EU costs a lot more then it does in other places in the world

 

I saw an article where someone was driving a Mach E to go some place in the UK and mentioned it cost a pound or two in electrical costs vs 34 pence it would cost in a Mazda 3 or something they normally used. 

 

These Electric costs increases are driven by the war in Ukraine and commiserate increases in Natural Gas costs. 

According to the majority of reviews the cost of EV ownership are much lower than ICE vehicles, Espcially if you charge at home or work. 
https://www.motorfinity.uk/blog/cost-of-running-electric-car/

 

1 hour ago, Sherminator98 said:

 

Kinda interesting to note that most of the states that are on the smaller side with large populations are the ones with bigger penetration of EV sales. 

 

I think the biggest differentiator is Urbanization, GDP per Capita, Education, and Political Leanings. After all, California is a large state. 

In Ohio, we have a number of anti-EV state policies and little commitment from the State to deploy chargers. 
 

1 hour ago, AM222 said:

Other manufacturers are keeping their ICE/hybrid models longer than originally planned as a response to the slow-down of BEV sales. Ford just got too excited to go all in on EVs that it started killing its popular ICE models prematurely.
 

Ford Allowed their ICE lineup to Languish before they declared their move toward EVs; in the Case of their ICE cars in the EU, sales were collapsing due to market conditions and underinvestment in their mainstream vehicles (Fiesta, Focus, and Kuga). the move to BEVs gave them a reason to kill them off. 
 

25 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

The promise of BEVs being lower-cost to help offset their inherent inconvenience associated with charging and limited range has not materialized yet, and IMO consumers are an impatient group.  Mostly though, hybrids have improved to the point of offering greater value, so why buy a more expensive BEV at all?

 

As an example, if we compare a Tesla Model 3 to either Accord or Camry hybrid, the HEVs are definitely less expensive.  Energy cost is where BEVs are strongest, and even there a Model 3 at present gas prices for my location cost as much or more.  I just filled up at $2.399 per gallon, and at over 45 MPG (actual declared their move toward EVs; in the Case of their ICE cars in the EU, sales were coping over 7,000 miles of driving), gas cost is between 5 and 6 cents per mile.  That’s as good as charging a Model 3 at home at my electricity rate, and much lower if charging away from home.

 

Model 3 BEV also cost more to buy, more to insure, and depreciates faster.  Accord range is over 500 miles and can be filled in 5 minutes.  As much as I want to be able to justify a new BEV, I can’t.  Eventually I believe BEVs can be cost-competitive, but we are not close yet.

I find EVs to be more convenient to live with than ICE cars, charging at home is more convenient than a gas station, no oil changes, Transmission Flushes, Etc. 

There is an inverse relationship between gas prices and electricity costs when it comes to  EV penetration. 

BEVs will be cheaper to build than ICE vehicles; the more EVs, the higher the cost of Electricity and the lower the cost of gas. 

For the EU with High Gas prices and Rising Electrical costs, the introduction of cheap Chinese EVs can reverse the decline in EV sales. While in the US the absence of significant Taxes on fuel, increasing EV penetration will make ICE cars Cheaper to run, while electrical prices will increase. In the US, the absence of substantial taxes on fuel and increasing EV penetration will make ICE cars cheaper. 

Overall, Cheaper EVs, and better infrastructure will speed EV market penetration. 

[DeluxeStang]

2 hours ago, AM222 said:

Other manufacturers are keeping their ICE/hybrid models longer than originally planned as a response to the slow-down of BEV sales. Ford just got too excited to go all in on EVs that it started killing its popular ICE models prematurely.
 

Idk, they haven't really killed most of their ICE models. According to ExplorerDude, the next gen escape is being developed as a ICE or hybrid model alongside whatever the CE1 utility is. Which is interesting, because I thought the CE1 utility was effectively the escape replacement. Beyond edge, there really isn't a segment of profitable ICE cars that Ford isn't competitive in right now. 

 

It's not like they killed their entire ICE lineup. 

[rmc523]

37 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:

Idk, they haven't really killed most of their ICE models. According to ExplorerDude, the next gen escape is being developed as a ICE or hybrid model alongside whatever the CE1 utility is. Which is interesting, because I thought the CE1 utility was effectively the escape replacement. Beyond edge, there really isn't a segment of profitable ICE cars that Ford isn't competitive in right now. 

 

It's not like they killed their entire ICE lineup. 

 

Eh, they've let their cars and SUVs languish with long product cycles, especially in Europe, vs. competitors that have kept ICE products up to date (and adding models) while also adding BEV models.

[morgan20]

3 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

Eh, they've let their cars and SUVs languish with long product cycles, especially in Europe, vs. competitors that have kept ICE products up to date (and adding models) while also adding BEV models.

 

Yea, Europe has been a sore spot for Ford in that regard but the situation isn't much better in the U.S. Hopefully the skunkworks will pay off sooner rather than later in terms of Ford adding BEV models to keep up with the competition