rmc523 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, morgan20 said: Yea, Europe has been a sore spot for Ford in that regard but the situation isn't much better in the U.S. Hopefully the skunkworks will pay off sooner rather than later in terms of Ford adding BEV models to keep up with the competition Yup, hopefully ICE gets healthy updates too for the time being. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 3 hours ago, Biker16 said: This is exclusively for China and excludes the US and Europe. VW just cancelled MEB completely and are now looking the use XPENG based BEVs in their place both in China and Europe/ ROW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, DeluxeStang said: Idk, they haven't really killed most of their ICE models. According to ExplorerDude, the next gen escape is being developed as a ICE or hybrid model alongside whatever the CE1 utility is. Which is interesting, because I thought the CE1 utility was effectively the escape replacement. Beyond edge, there really isn't a segment of profitable ICE cars that Ford isn't competitive in right now. It's not like they killed their entire ICE lineup. For Europe, they basically have, Fiesta, Focus and Mondeo all gone those were the bulk of sales for Ford Europe, now they struggle to sell anything…what’s left is basically over priced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 52 minutes ago, jpd80 said: VW just cancelled MEB completely and are now looking the use XPENG based BEVs in their place both in China and Europe/ ROW. I don't know how palatable it would be for VW to sell a Chinese developed Architecture in the US and europe. Thus, I foresee the MEB+ or SSP will end up replacing MEB for the EU and North America. As of now this isn't allowed in the US https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/chinese-software-ban-cars-biden.html https://www.electrive.com/2024/11/11/volkswagen-anhui-could-scrap-the-meb-in-china/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: For Europe, they basically have, Fiesta, Focus and Mondeo all gone those were the bulk of sales for Ford Europe, now they struggle to sell anything…what’s left is basically over priced. We'll see if it goes anywhere, but some of the higher ups in Europe have said there's a good chance Ford will make future ev products that appeal to people who want low slung cars instead of utilities and trucks. That could mean anything from sedans, to hatches, coupes and sports cars. All promising in their own right. All Ford has implied thus far is that if they brought back more car form factors, they would be emotional passion products. So maybe we'll see some sort of Focus sized ev, but instead of looking like a potato, it takes design inspiration for rally cars or something, and instead of being called a focus, it's called Escort. I firmly believe Ford is gonna bring back car form factors beyond the mustang before the decade is out. EV sedans and hatchbacks are doing a lot better in terms of sales than things like full sized ev trucks, and those EV sedans and hatchbacks can generate a decent profit if developed the right way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 9 hours ago, Biker16 said: For the EU with High Gas prices and Rising Electrical costs, the introduction of cheap Chinese EVs can reverse the decline in EV sales. While in the US the absence of significant Taxes on fuel, increasing EV penetration will make ICE cars Cheaper to run, while electrical prices will increase. In the US, the absence of substantial taxes on fuel and increasing EV penetration will make ICE cars cheaper. Exactly, the more successful BEVs become, the more headwind they will face compared to ICEVs (excluding regulations intended to limit ICE vehicles). Additional considerations include that with much higher numbers of BEVs on the road, it will place greater burden on power grid, possibly leading to blackouts or rationing. I do not recall exact numbers, but there was a study discussed on this forum estimating California alone would require the equivalent electricity of three nuclear power plants when BEVs became +/- 50% of market. That added cost doesn’t show up when comparing individual auto purchase prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 (edited) 12 hours ago, Biker16 said: I don't know how palatable it would be for VW to sell a Chinese developed Architecture in the US and europe. Thus, I foresee the MEB+ or SSP will end up replacing MEB for the EU and North America. As of now this isn't allowed in the US I think you’re misunderstanding the rule, only certain kinds of Chinese software are not permitted. As long as it is disabled, then there is no impediment, especially if VW were to switch to Chinese based BEVs being built at its US plants, then that could easily be made compliant. Rather breathtaking to watch VW literally walk away from a $70 billion investment and throw its arms around a Chinese partner. Wo knows if this signals the first of many coming collaborations. Edited November 28 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AM222 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 (edited) 18 hours ago, DeluxeStang said: Idk, they haven't really killed most of their ICE models. According to ExplorerDude, the next gen escape is being developed as a ICE or hybrid model alongside whatever the CE1 utility is. Which is interesting, because I thought the CE1 utility was effectively the escape replacement. Beyond edge, there really isn't a segment of profitable ICE cars that Ford isn't competitive in right now. It's not like they killed their entire ICE lineup. True. It just happens that Ford killed (or is about to kill) the ICE models that it could sell in its global markets. Ford has the Puma but hasn't marketed it as a global model to take the place of the Fiesta/EcoSport/Focus world cars. For example, if the Puma (which is BEV capable) was built in regional plants outside Europe, Ford could have had an affordable crossover in Asia-Pacific, South Africa, and South America. Will the next Escape be a global model? Right now, Ford exports the Chinese Territory (built on an unrelated JMC-Ford architecture) to Southeast Asia, Middle East, South Africa and South America as Ford's C-segment SUV to go up against models like the Rav4 and Tucson. Edited November 28 by AM222 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 (edited) 14 hours ago, Rick73 said: Exactly, the more successful BEVs become, the more headwind they will face compared to ICEVs (excluding regulations intended to limit ICE vehicles). Additional considerations include that with much higher numbers of BEVs on the road, it will place greater burden on power grid, possibly leading to blackouts or rationing. I do not recall exact numbers, but there was a study discussed on this forum estimating California alone would require the equivalent electricity of three nuclear power plants when BEVs became +/- 50% of market. That added cost doesn’t show up when comparing individual auto purchase prices. I agree with most of what you said, except for the part about blackouts; this statement contains a lot of FUD. Why Electric Vehicles Won't Break the Grid | Scientific American Can the Nation's Electrical Grid Support Electric Cars? | U.S. News Edited November 28 by Biker16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 49 minutes ago, Biker16 said: I agree with most of what you said, except for the part about blackouts; this statement contains a lot of FUD. Why Electric Vehicles Won't Break the Grid | Scientific American Can the Nation's Electrical Grid Support Electric Cars? | U.S. News Where I live we already experience too many power outages, so it’s a real concern, not a theoretical exercise. And California doesn’t even generate enough electricity to power itself last time I checked data, so I’m not going to take their claims all that seriously until they actually upgrade their grid, rather than state they will be ready in the future for future loads. Obviously the grid can be upgraded; it’s not that difficult. It just takes time and a huge amount of investment. I never argue that it can’t be done, just that upgrades are not getting done fast enough. And to be clear, my perspective on what needs to be accomplished involves more than just keeping the lights on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 8 hours ago, jpd80 said: I think you’re misunderstanding the rule, only certain kinds of Chinese software are not permitted. As long as it is disabled, then there is no impediment, especially if VW were to switch to Chinese based BEVs being built at its US plants, then that could easily be made compliant. Rather breathtaking to watch VW literally walk away from a $70 billion investment and throw its arms around a Chinese partner. Wo knows if this signals the first of many coming collaborations. Let's back up. The Future is Software Defined Vehicles. What is a Software-defined Vehicle-VIDEO SDVs are the cornerstone of modern architecture. They move away from Distributed module architectures like MEB, MQB, and MLB towards a Unified, scalable architecture where the IP primarily resides in the software, not proprietary modules from multiple companies. An EV's personality and functionality are rooted in its software, not hardware. With an ICE vehicle, an ECU manages the engine, the TCU manages the Transmission, and multiple BCMs manage individual control functions. You can swap out modules based on those particular functions. The Ecoboost I3 can have a different ECU module than a Coyote V8, with all the functions of that engine stored on that ECU. With EVs, the level of integration is much higher, and all functions need to be controlled to optimize performance and efficiency precisely. VW has many issues with missing launches due to the vehicle software. Volkswagen’s software problems are causing customer headaches — and leading to major EV shakeups - The Verge VW To Postpone Launch Of Next-Gen EVs Due To Software Problems | Carscoops That's why it's investing billions in Rivian. Rivian allows them access to vehicle software independent of the Chinese and shields them from future Restrictions on Chinese Software. The Rivian-Volkswagen joint venture deal is now up to $5.8B | TechCrunch VWs vehicle Architecture plan MEB Debuted in 2019, Limited Battery Capcity <100KWh, Poor charging speeds <180KW, Low Voltage <400V. MEB+/MEB lite 2025/26 (or cancelled) Bigger Battery, LFP and NMC options, 200KW charging, 400v SSP 2029? Replaces everything ICE and EV move to a common architecture. I can see VW replacing MEB in the Near term with a hybrid Chinese EV architecture for Low-end cars, but I don't see them moving Audi and Porche to that platform. 4 minutes ago, Rick73 said: Where I live we already experience too many power outages, so it’s a real concern, not a theoretical exercise. And California doesn’t even generate enough electricity to power itself last time I checked data, so I’m not going to take their claims all that seriously until they actually upgrade their grid, rather than state they will be ready in the future for future loads. Obviously the grid can be upgraded; it’s not that difficult. It just takes time and a huge amount of investment. I never argue that it can’t be done, just that upgrades are not getting done fast enough. And to be clear, my perspective on what needs to be accomplished involves more than just keeping the lights on. DYK! From 1950 to 2022, US electricity usage increased from .3 Trillion KWH to 4.07 trillion KWH. On average, electricity consumption has grown 3.75% per year over the last 72 years. Use of electricity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) From the graph, you can see demand has consistently increased over time, with the impacts of increased efficiency mandates, (LED bulbs, HVAC, Etc) flattening the demand curve. Currently, 0.247% of electricity demand is used for Transportation. Electricity production has consistently grown; last year, it increased by 10,000,000,000 KWH or 2.5%, or the equivalent of 10,000 1,100KW Nuclear reactors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, Biker16 said: Let's back up. The Future is Software Defined Vehicles. What is a Software-defined Vehicle-VIDEO SDVs are the cornerstone of modern architecture. They move away from Distributed module architectures like MEB, MQB, and MLB towards a Unified, scalable architecture where the IP primarily resides in the software, not proprietary modules from multiple companies. An EV's personality and functionality are rooted in its software, not hardware. With an ICE vehicle, an ECU manages the engine, the TCU manages the Transmission, and multiple BCMs manage individual control functions. You can swap out modules based on those particular functions. The Ecoboost I3 can have a different ECU module than a Coyote V8, with all the functions of that engine stored on that ECU. With EVs, the level of integration is much higher, and all functions need to be controlled to optimize performance and efficiency precisely. VW has many issues with missing launches due to the vehicle software. Volkswagen’s software problems are causing customer headaches — and leading to major EV shakeups - The Verge VW To Postpone Launch Of Next-Gen EVs Due To Software Problems | Carscoops That's why it's investing billions in Rivian. Rivian allows them access to vehicle software independent of the Chinese and shields them from future Restrictions on Chinese Software. The Rivian-Volkswagen joint venture deal is now up to $5.8B | TechCrunch VWs vehicle Architecture plan MEB Debuted in 2019, Limited Battery Capcity <100KWh, Poor charging speeds <180KW, Low Voltage <400V. MEB+/MEB lite 2025/26 (or cancelled) Bigger Battery, LFP and NMC options, 200KW charging, 400v SSP 2029? Replaces everything ICE and EV move to a common architecture. I can see VW replacing MEB in the Near term with a hybrid Chinese EV architecture for Low-end cars, but I don't see them moving Audi and Porche to that platform. MEB variations extend across the high end brands - all of them cancelled because they are just not selling in decent numbers. VW is in real trouble and their chiefs know it, the truth is slowly trickling out and even the later of the articles you quoted is now out of date. All that waffle about software being vehicles identity is just marketing nonsense that didn’t fly, VW is now desperately trying to find a connection with its premium buyers who neo seem non pluses about the company’s direction. Dont get me wrong, VW still has plenty of revenue coming in and not looking at bankruptcy in the next few years but man, they have squandered so much.. Put it this way, if they’d just gone and bought a healthy share in Tesla back in say, 2018 then none of this would be a concern…. Edited November 28 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: MEB variations extend across the high end brands - all of them cancelled because they are just not selling in decent numbers. VW is in real trouble and their chiefs know it, the truth is slowly trickling out and even the later of the articles you quoted is now out of date. All that waffle about software being vehicles identity is just marketing nonsense that didn’t fly, VW is now desperately trying to find a connection with its premium buyers who neo seem non pluses about the company’s direction. Dont get me wrong, VW still has plenty of revenue coming in and not looking at bankruptcy in the next few years but man, they have squandered so much.. Put it this way, if they’d just gone and bought a healthy share in Tesla back in say, 2018 then none of this would be a concern…. If you are going to say they are all cancelled, please provide a source. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 (edited) ok, let’s just start with this article and then I’ll add something shared with me https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/28/volkswagen-shut-three-factories-cut-thousands-jobs-union The German carmaker Volkswagen is planning to shut at least three factories in its home country, lay off thousands of workers and cut pay by 10%, according to the company’s union. The deeper-than-expected cuts come as the company faces weak sales and slow expansion in the electric vehicle (EV) sector amid tough competition from Chinese manufacturers. “The board wants to close at least three factories in Germany,” the works council chief, Daniela Cavallo, told employees at VW’s headquarters in Wolfsburg on Monday. Its remaining manufacturing sites will reduce capacity, she said, citing information provided by management. An inside source is advising that MEB vehicles are all on the chopping block and save for German government intervention this doesn’t look good. The problem with MEB and the high series versions is the built in requirement for labor, the build times are killing profitability Final thought Even if Chinese whispers are unfounded, VW group are in a real pickle at the moment, so with a ton of cash reserves, I expect them to keep trying until an upturn in the market but either way MEB is now a huge black hole that will probably be written down years early. Edited November 28 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker16 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 https://insideevs.com/news/742492/vw-project-trinity-rivian-sdv/ Rivian Will Power Volkswagen’s Electric Golf, ‘Project Trinity’ The tech will first come to Audi and Porsche as early as 2027, but VW's flagship EV is on that list too. Volkswagen's flagship EV, coined "Project Trinity," has been hyped up as the German brand's saving grace in a time when VW has gone from just a cool guy brand to one that is struggling to convince people to buy their vehicles. But, VW has also been kicking Trinity's can down the road, delaying it in favor of other vehicles like the new Golf EV and members of the current ID-family lineup. Now we know why. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 23 hours ago, Biker16 said: DYK! From 1950 to 2022, US electricity usage increased from .3 Trillion KWH to 4.07 trillion KWH. On average, electricity consumption has grown 3.75% per year over the last 72 years. Use of electricity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) From the graph, you can see demand has consistently increased over time, with the impacts of increased efficiency mandates, (LED bulbs, HVAC, Etc) flattening the demand curve. Currently, 0.247% of electricity demand is used for Transportation. Electricity production has consistently grown; last year, it increased by 10,000,000,000 KWH or 2.5%, or the equivalent of 10,000 1,100KW Nuclear reactors. Growth rate has leveled off considerably in the last 20 years or so, especially industrial and commercial. Residential seems to account for much of the growth recently, but that’s leveling off too. An average number based on going back to 1950 does not paint a clear picture IMO. I think your estimates on required nuclear power plants to make up for growth is off quite a bit. A typical nuclear plant is closer to 1,000 megawatts, not kilowatts. Also very important is that much of new power generation adds up to a lot of kWh’s of energy but not necessarily when we need them. I support BEV choices under right conditions, but at same time want to remain 100% realistic on actual energy usage, CO2/GHG emissions, affordability, etc. I’m not willing to accept only the parts I like and ignore the rest. My goal is to remain objective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 (edited) 3 hours ago, Biker16 said: https://insideevs.com/news/742492/vw-project-trinity-rivian-sdv/ Rivian Will Power Volkswagen’s Electric Golf, ‘Project Trinity’ The tech will first come to Audi and Porsche as early as 2027, but VW's flagship EV is on that list too. Volkswagen's flagship EV, coined "Project Trinity," has been hyped up as the German brand's saving grace in a time when VW has gone from just a cool guy brand to one that is struggling to convince people to buy their vehicles. But, VW has also been kicking Trinity's can down the road, delaying it in favor of other vehicles like the new Golf EV and members of the current ID-family lineup. Now we know why. Yes, it looks like VW is not convinced that Rivian can pull off such an important vehicle but maybe it will in time… Looking deeper into the VW Xpeng agreement, there’s actually two platforms they were looking to develop for China, the first was CEP a or Chinese Electric Platform that’s mostly Xpeng and the second was actually modifying the MEB platform electrical systems as a form of regionalisation and simplification of control systems. Things seem to have gone quiet on the latter work on MEB but I wonder if this work could be fruitful outside of China - it would make sense to evolve MEB to simplify both the electrical and mechanical assembly processes to save money. Still I can’t find any source to confirm this. I could be falling into the speculation trap here but it seems the most logical thing would be to fix MEB and make it less costly to build rather than just throw everything away… Edited November 29 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherminator98 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 hours ago, Rick73 said: Growth rate has leveled off considerably in the last 20 years or so, especially industrial and commercial. Residential seems to account for much of the growth recently, but that’s leveling off too. An average number based on going back to 1950 does not paint a clear picture IMO. That is because electrical equipment became more power efficient and it flatted out the curve of demand for the past 30 years, why do you think power companies where paying for companies to switch to CFL and LED lighting during this time? USB chargers use very little power and the use of them has grown well over 100% in the past 25 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazerdude20 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 23 hours ago, Sherminator98 said: That is because electrical equipment became more power efficient and it flatted out the curve of demand for the past 30 years, why do you think power companies where paying for companies to switch to CFL and LED lighting during this time? USB chargers use very little power and the use of them has grown well over 100% in the past 25 years. Power utilities here are assisting data centers and factories with planning, and cost, of large scale battery backup systems and solar. It’s cheaper to help there than invest in more capacity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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