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Toyota Math: 9 Million EVs Are Just as Polluting as 27 Million Hybrids


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He’s not entirely wrong as long as we depend on fossil-fueled electricity.  Priority in my opinion should have been to make vehicles more efficient and separately make electricity generation greener.  Anyway, the new Toyota Aygo hybrid that gets 62 MPG would make a great city car if proven to be safe enough, and sold at low-enough price.  Not sure how the reported 62 MPG would convert in EPA rating but seems reasonable given much larger Camry are up to around 50 MPG.  Hybrids do offer a lot of bang for the buck.

 

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Hmm. 

I think in countries with a higher level of Carbon free Electricity than Japan this would be False.

Japan's energy mix is dirtier than the US and much dirtier than Germany or France.

Japan 36% Carbon Free
image.png.1418f986cb05ee2c5bd99db7a373200e.png

USA 41% Carbon Free
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Germany 55% Carbon Free
image.png.da85ba62d14601f1f97d972c72d7ab5b.png

 

France 91% Carbon Free

image.png.079a64e0ae598cd5a2a4c207b5054b44.png
 

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30 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

He’s not entirely wrong as long as we depend on fossil-fueled electricity.  Priority in my opinion should have been to make vehicles more efficient and separately make electricity generation greener.  Anyway, the new Toyota Aygo hybrid that gets 62 MPG would make a great city car if proven to be safe enough, and sold at low-enough price.  Not sure how the reported 62 MPG would convert in EPA rating but seems reasonable given much larger Camry are up to around 50 MPG.  Hybrids do offer a lot of bang for the buck.

 

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I don't know, the FUD around EVs killing the grid has met the Reality that AI is killing the grid and spiking electrical rates, all over the country. 

 

The lessons from China is that Hybrids are not cheaper to build than EVs. The current Political climate is as Anti hybrid as its Anti EV, combined with low fuel prices, is likely to stall growth in either hybrids and EVs. I feel that the advantage of EVs is that they offer a path towards energy independence that PHEVs don't.


 

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44 minutes ago, Biker16 said:


I don't know, the FUD around EVs killing the grid has met the Reality that AI is killing the grid and spiking electrical rates, all over the country. 

 

The lessons from China is that Hybrids are not cheaper to build than EVs. The current Political climate is as Anti hybrid as its Anti EV, combined with low fuel prices, is likely to stall growth in either hybrids and EVs. I feel that the advantage of EVs is that they offer a path towards energy independence that PHEVs don't.

 

The unfortunate fact is that you can't force people to buy something they don't trust or "want"

 

Unless they figure out a way to market EVs to appeal to people and remove most of the preconceived notions people have about them, its going to be a struggle to sell them or even make money off them.  

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3 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

EVs will have to prove their worth to earn mass adoption- The current generation are throwaways with an inadequate charging network and often have no GHG reduction advantage over IC vehicles running on renewable fuels.

 

Except that there isn't a cost effective renewable fuel available that would cut GHG either...and wouldn't be as scalable as dino oil either. 

 

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On 6/9/2025 at 11:04 AM, Sherminator98 said:

 

The unfortunate fact is that you can't force people to buy something they don't trust or "want"

 

Unless they figure out a way to market EVs to appeal to people and remove most of the preconceived notions people have about them, its going to be a struggle to sell them or even make money off them.  


Agree people want what they want, which is often what’s best for them.  A good product will market itself because people will want to buy it without a lot of convincing.  IMO most people are not inherently against EV mobility on principle, so if they are not buying electric cars, maybe we should ask what’s wrong with the cars instead of blaming the people who don’t want to buy them.

 

When electrification works great in “similar” applications, buyers adapt quickly.  One example are electric versus gas golf carts.  Marketing may be required to differentiate between brands, but many buyers prefer electric over gas due to overall advantages.  Another reminder for me are all the new electric bikes I’m seeing in my community.  There are no gas-bike counterparts (for all practical purposes) so they are a new application of electrification that buyers are embracing willingly.

 

My point has remained over time that most people are not against BEVs on principle, or against change, or against technology, etc. as much as they are against spending limited resources on vehicles that do not serve them as well overall.  BEVs simply need to be more competitive against ICEVs and HEVs.

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On 6/9/2025 at 10:18 AM, Biker16 said:


I don't know, the FUD around EVs killing the grid has met the Reality that AI is killing the grid and spiking electrical rates, all over the country. 

 

The lessons from China is that Hybrids are not cheaper to build than EVs. The current Political climate is as Anti hybrid as its Anti EV, combined with low fuel prices, is likely to stall growth in either hybrids and EVs. I feel that the advantage of EVs is that they offer a path towards energy independence that PHEVs don't.


 


Government officials who mandated BEV adoption probably knew they were creating a future grid problem that would require a lot of money to fix, but didn’t want that cost associated directly back to their mandates for fear there would be greater pushback.  Obviously we have been hearing for years all kinds of futuristic plans on how BEVs would be charged with limited affect on grid, and in some cases actually helping the grid by reducing peak loads, but IMO many of those concepts are way out in left field and won’t materialize for a very long time, if ever.

 

Helping the environment has to start with being honest and objective, and I don’t expect much of either from government officials.  As I’ve stated many times, I believe the correct way to look at BEV charging loads’ effect on power generation and associated emissions must be on an incremental basis, and not on average.  The same applies to AI growth, which is cumulative with BEV charging loads.  Bottom line is that BEVs are not reducing GHGs as much as many proponents claim.  And to make matters worse, when average buyers see a BEV gets 120 MPGe, they have no idea what that really means as it relates to CO2 generated at electricity power plants.  How can they make an informed decision if being misled?  The whole thing is disappointing.

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