Bad News For The F Series

[twintornados]

10 hours ago, SoonerLS said:

They must’ve had contingency plans for something like this......

 

Stamp the pickup truck boxes out of steel? 

[akirby]

42 minutes ago, twintornados said:

 

Stamp the pickup truck boxes out of steel? 

Picking up beer cans…..

[rmc523]

I mean, Ford can't even figure out their own future plans, let alone plan for something like this lol.

[akirby]

15 hours ago, SoonerLS said:

They must’ve had contingency plans for something like this, they just take time to implement. There’s no way they could tolerate that level of risk without some kind of backup plan.

You mean like the backup plan when MyFordTouch had to be launched with 1500 bugs and took almost a year to stabilize?  Or the backup plan to keep making ICE hybrids when the BEV takeover didn’t happen?

[jpd80]

16 hours ago, rmc523 said:

I mean, Ford can't even figure out their own future plans, let alone plan for something like this lol.

It’s eye opening just how much of the manufacturing process is just in time parts delivery

and any disruption to the supply chain is deadly to companies like Ford.

[Sherminator98]

5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

It’s eye opening just how much of the manufacturing process is just in time parts delivery

and any disruption to the supply chain is deadly to companies like Ford.

 

Just in time manufacturing has been around since the 1990s or so. In the US at least, if companies build up a stockpile of parts, they can be taxed on it, which is a deterrent from doing that. 

 

This has happened in the past, just that it gets reported more often now because of the internet.  

[twintornados]

6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

It’s eye opening just how much of the manufacturing process is just in time parts delivery

and any disruption to the supply chain is deadly to companies like Ford.

 

4 minutes ago, Sherminator98 said:

Just in time manufacturing has been around since the 1990s or so. In the US at least, if companies build up a stockpile of parts, they can be taxed on it, which is a deterrent from doing that.   

 

It was a manufacturing style that was adopted by US companies from several Japanese counterparts...hailed as a great boon to the industry for saving money and turning production times around quicker. 

[rmc523]

Hopefully they're able to overcome it somehow.

[Bob Rosadini]

1 hour ago, twintornados said:

 

 

It was a manufacturing style that was adopted by US companies from several Japanese counterparts...hailed as a great boon to the industry for saving money and turning production times around quicker. 

Yes..I think the Japanese term for it is "Kanban"?

[fordmantpw]

21 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Yes..I think the Japanese term for it is "Kanban"?

 

Huh, interesting.  In the software development world, we use "Kanban boards" to track bugs/work items/etc.  I never knew the term came from JIT manufacturer.  Makes sense since the agile process of software development focuses on JIT development.  Learn something new everyday...I'm taking the rest of the day off now!  😄

[akirby]

4 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

 

It was a manufacturing style that was adopted by US companies from several Japanese counterparts...hailed as a great boon to the industry for saving money and turning production times around quicker. 

Dont think it made production faster, just reduced onsite storage and improved cash flow.

[akirby]

2 hours ago, fordmantpw said:

I'm taking the rest of the day off now!  😄

Me too! 
 

day, week, month, year, decade…….  😂

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

 

It was a manufacturing style that was adopted by US companies from several Japanese counterparts...hailed as a great boon to the industry for saving money and turning production times around quicker. 

Fair comment.
Yes, back in the 1990s just in time gave good increases in efficiency but OEMs like Ford

had to keep outsourcing more and more of its parts and processes- that’s where the

vulnerability comes in, manufacturers are now prepared to risk long stoppages to get

every last possible saving.

[balthisar]

18 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Fair comment.
Yes, back in the 1990s just in time gave good increases in efficiency but OEMs like Ford

had to keep outsourcing more and more of its parts and processes- that’s where the

vulnerability comes in, manufacturers are now prepared to risk long stoppages to get

every last possible saving.

 

Outsourcing also means not being responsible for labor. If demand for widgets falls, you can't just fire the UAW employees who make them in-house, but if they're externally purchased, you can reduce volumes or cancel orders, and it becomes, say, Magna's personnel problem and not yours.

 

[jpd80]

Ok, to loop this back to the topic, Ford chose to go with aluminum bodies on F Trucks more than

ten years ago but the big issue was the vulnerability of going with just one supplier. While that

plan enabled long lock in of discounted costs, it now sees Ford in a huge pickle where it’s main

profit earning vehicles will be severely impacted for at least a six month period.

 

So the issue of outsourcing is there, a bigger concern appears to be Ford’s lack of risk management,
the one supplier goes down and it immediately impacts production.

[akirby]

21 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Ok, to loop this back to the topic, Ford chose to go with aluminum bodies on F Trucks more than

ten years ago but the big issue was the vulnerability of going with just one supplier. While that

plan enabled long lock in of discounted costs, it now sees Ford in a huge pickle where it’s main

profit earning vehicles will be severely impacted for at least a six month period.

 

So the issue of outsourcing is there, a bigger concern appears to be Ford’s lack of risk management,
the one supplier goes down and it immediately impacts production.

Let’s see what the real impact is.  We know there is mitigation and it’s possible they saved more the last 10 years than they lose over the next 6 months.  Even though you’re right about Ford’s general risk management decisions.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Let’s see what the real impact is.  We know there is mitigation and it’s possible they saved more the last 10 years than they lose over the next 6 months.  Even though you’re right about Ford’s general risk management decisions.

Indeed, would love to hear your thoughts on risk management for this issue.

 

it’s like the chassis supply issue a few years ago, it’s not always possible/desirable to have a second supplier - that’s the cost of threat mitigation.

Also like having extra production plants than needed- keeps union threats in check.
Loads of examples where Ford takes immediate savings and hopes for no problems….

 

On aluminium supply,

No doubt that  Ford is working with its supplier to do whatever it needs to get alternate supply of aluminium until the plant resumes production. Will be interesting if this is total loss or partial supply.

could also be a great opportunity to work down inventory provided that the stock matches what customers want.

Going into winter, SD fleet sales become more important, so watching thst too.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2025 by jpd80

[akirby]

15 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Indeed, would love to hear your thoughts on risk management for this issue.

First you identify the probability of a bad event, then you identify the potential losses and mitigation strategies.  Then you compare the potential loss against the cost of different mitigation options compared with probability.

 

E.g. If you have one supplier the probability of a disaster is a lot higher than if have two or more and the impact is greater.  But if the worst case scenario (we used to call it “smoking hole” as in there is nothing left of the data center but a smoking hole in the ground) means you lose X profits for 6 months then that’s what you compare to the cost of having multiple suppliers.  I’m sure the suppliers have given Ford their smoking hole recovery plans.  The added risk is if the recovery estimates are wrong and instead of 6 months it takes 18 months.   
 

Sometimes it’s worth the risk depending on how much can be saved, even though it looks terrible while it’s happening.  Similar to me and extended warranties.  I don’t buy them and I’m probably $15K ahead over the last 10 vehicles.  Even if I had to spend $8K tomorrow I’m still $7k ahead, but most people would freak out that they had to pay $8K out of pocket even if they’re saving money overall.

[Bob Rosadini]

I think another benefit of the Kanban concept was you minimized inventory costs..from the carrying cost of maintaining a large inventory, to in the long term,  the cost of the  additional warehouse space.

[jpd80]

9 hours ago, akirby said:

First you identify the probability of a bad event, then you identify the potential losses and mitigation strategies.  Then you compare the potential loss against the cost of different mitigation options compared with probability.

 

E.g. If you have one supplier the probability of a disaster is a lot higher than if have two or more and the impact is greater.  But if the worst case scenario (we used to call it “smoking hole” as in there is nothing left of the data center but a smoking hole in the ground) means you lose X profits for 6 months then that’s what you compare to the cost of having multiple suppliers.  I’m sure the suppliers have given Ford their smoking hole recovery plans.  The added risk is if the recovery estimates are wrong and instead of 6 months it takes 18 months.   
 

Sometimes it’s worth the risk depending on how much can be saved, even though it looks terrible while it’s happening.  Similar to me and extended warranties.  I don’t buy them and I’m probably $15K ahead over the last 10 vehicles.  Even if I had to spend $8K tomorrow I’m still $7k ahead, but most people would freak out that they had to pay $8K out of pocket even if they’re saving money overall.

Thanks, just saw this snippet in linked article

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/americas-top-selling-vehicle-faces-production-hit-after-fire-supplier-facility-analyst-says

 

Quote

Novelis, a key supplier of automotive-grade aluminum for Ford and used in vehicles like the F-150 pickup truck, told FOX Business that its plant in Oswego, New York, won't be back in operation until the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

A Novelis spokesperson said the company activated its global network of plants and is partnering with industry peers to source material to try to mitigate the gap in supply.

 

Sounds like there will be some supplies of aluminum coming from other locations but yeah,

pretty sure that Ford will have to work down it’s +200k F Series inventory to keep as many

customers as possible…..lest they go shopping at GM or Stellantis…

[Harley Lover]

From Automotive News:

Quote

Ford says supplier fire could be $2 billion hit, but it plans higher F-Series output with 1,000 new jobs in 2026

Ford Motor Co. said a September fire at aluminum supplier Novelis will cut its profit by $1.5 billion to $2 billion this year. The automaker plans to offset $1 billion of that hit in 2026 by adding 1,000 workers in Kentucky and Michigan to increase production of its aluminum-bodied F-Series pickups.

 

Ford COO Kumar Galhotra said the hot mill portion of the Novelis plant was impacted by the fire, while the cold mill and finishing operations are still running.

He expects the hot mill area to be back online by late November or early December and said Ford’s pickup and SUV plants will undergo “some disruption” until then. Galhotra said Ford was sourcing hot aluminum bands from other Novelis locations in the U.S. and Europe, as well as from “a few other mills around the world.”

On an earnings call, Galhotra said Ford expects to lose between 90,000 and 100,000 units of production in the fourth quarter.

 

The automaker said F-150 Lightning production, which was idled this month, will remain down indefinitely. The roughly 500 workers who build Lightnings at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center will transfer in early 2026 to the nearby Dearborn Truck Plant as that site adds a third crew of about 1,200 employees.

Galhotra would not provide an estimate of when Lightning production will restart, saying Ford was focused on the more profitable gasoline and hybrid models, but did not suggest the Lightning downtime was permanent.

 

Dearborn Truck will target building more than 45,000 additional F-150 gasoline and hybrid pickups next year, Ford said. The automaker also expects to add 90 employees at the Dearborn Stamping Plant and 80 employees at the Dearborn Diversified Manufacturing Plant.

The Kentucky Truck Plant, which builds Super Duty pickups in addition to the aluminum-bodied Lincoln Navigator and Ford Expedition, will build about 5,000 more vehicles per year starting in 2026 and add more than 100 employees, Ford said.

After accounting for its mitigation efforts, Ford said it expects the total impact of the Novelis fire in 2025 and 2026 to be $1 billion or less.

 

Complete article: https://www.autonews.com/ford/an-ford-q3-earnings-1023/

[rmc523]

Ford Could Take $2B Loss From Aluminum Supplier Fire

 

In its Q3 2025 financial report, Ford revealed that between 2025 and 2026, it expects the Novelis fire to cost it around $1 billion or less, but that's after it offsets that loss with boosted output next year. For 2025, Ford has adjusted its EBIT (earnings before tax and interest) headwind to between $1.5 billion to $2 billion as a result of this incident, and also adjusted its free cash flow headwind to between $2 billion and $3 billion in the fourth quarter due to the Novelis fire.

[rmc523]

Don't know if this is a "best case scenario thing" or what...

 

Ford Says Supplier Plant Will Reopen Earlier Than Expected

 

During Ford's Q3 2025 earnings call with investors, the automaker was asked when it expected the Novelis plant to become operational again, after previous reports indicated that it would be "at least" Q1 2026 before that happened. In response, Ford COO Kumar Galhotra said that "the hot mill, which is down now, will be operational in late November/early December. It’ll then go through a quick ramp-up through December.

 

[92LX302]

Great timing to have tariffs on Canadian aluminum. 

[Joe771476]

I just read a second fire occurred today!  And nobody thinks something funny is going on? Since these parts are shipped across state lines, the FBI might get involved.