Lightning production to end?

[Sherminator98]

16 hours ago, jpd80 said:

 On three shifts, REVC had a max. capacity of 150,000 / year.

Ford was anticipating a lot more sales growth that didn’t materialise 

 

Once again, REVC only added 300 jobs to DTP/River Rouge complex

Its part of DTP
 

 

DTP can make about 300K units a year, so I'm sure that 

[Texasota]

1 hour ago, morgan20 said:

 

If F-150 Lightning gets canceled it will be because of corporate dysfunction within Ford that incentivizes short-term thinking as Biker16 mentioned earlier.

No, its because it is unprofitable and sells in very low numbers even with Ford subsidizing it and the federal government subsidizing it (until recently).

Edited November 9, 2025 by Texasota

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, Sherminator98 said:

 

Once again, REVC only added 300 jobs to DTP/River Rouge complex

Its part of DTP
 

 

DTP can make about 300K units a year, so I'm sure that 

Approximately 

700 workers were relocated from the REVC plant to other facilities, while another 700 were laid off or took early retirement following job cuts announced in January 2024.

 

I think we’re arguing the same thing from different ends…

Ford couldn’t use all the capacity available for Lightning, let alone the massive plant they are building in Kentucky

 

Insiders are saying that there will be some rather large write downs next year, Ford needs the deductions now to maximise income in what will be a difficult year.

 

LOL autocorrect keeps changing Ford to Fird…..

Edited November 10, 2025 by jpd80

[Biker16]

3 hours ago, Texasota said:

No, its because it is unprofitable and sells in very low numbers even with Ford subsidizing it and the federal government subsidizing it (until recently).

How do you know how profitable or non-profitable any vehicle Ford makes is or isn't?

The fact that the competition seems to be capable of doing Things that Ford can't should be a major concern and point to issues within the company. 

[Biker16]

4 minutes ago, Texasota said:

I think Ford is doing exactly what you are suggesting. They are adapting and bringing forward impressive new technology with CE1. CE1 may actually make money for the company and result in a product that customers will embrace. That has not been true for the F-150 lightning.

No matter how impressive CE1 may be. It doesn't mean that Ford is pursuing a "Flexible/responsive" Product Development and manufacturing strategy. The fact that CE1 is launching with a revolutionary manufacturing Concept in an existing factory and not a new factory speaks volumes to the need for BOC.

Looking at BEV demand and Ford's manufacturing footprint. The BOC should be canceled, and Future investments should focus on improving the flexibility and productivity of existing factories.

IMO 

[akirby]

6 minutes ago, Biker16 said:

The fact that CE1 is launching with a revolutionary manufacturing Concept in an existing factory and not a new factory speaks volumes to the need for BOC.

Louisville is being gutted and totally rebuilt.  

[Oac98]

1 hour ago, Biker16 said:

No matter how impressive CE1 may be. It doesn't mean that Ford is pursuing a "Flexible/responsive" Product Development and manufacturing strategy. The fact that CE1 is launching with a revolutionary manufacturing Concept in an existing factory and not a new factory speaks volumes to the need for BOC.

Looking at BEV demand and Ford's manufacturing footprint. The BOC should be canceled, and Future investments should focus on improving the flexibility and productivity of existing factories.

IMO 

Cancel BOC and do what then with an empty multi billion dollar massive factory?? 

[Oac98]

1 hour ago, Biker16 said:

No matter how impressive CE1 may be. It doesn't mean that Ford is pursuing a "Flexible/responsive" Product Development and manufacturing strategy. The fact that CE1 is launching with a revolutionary manufacturing Concept in an existing factory and not a new factory speaks volumes to the need for BOC.

Looking at BEV demand and Ford's manufacturing footprint. The BOC should be canceled, and Future investments should focus on improving the flexibility and productivity of existing factories.

IMO 

We all knew at some point Ford will start having capacity utilization issues. 

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, Biker16 said:

How do you know how profitable or non-profitable any vehicle Ford makes is or isn't?

The biggest tell is that Ford is prepared to pause Lightning production 

and give the aluminium bodies over to other F Series production.

 

I feel for Ford, things are really piling up on them, aluminum,

chips, and a major course correction with BEVs.

 

Is is any wonder that Ford constantly tears up and redoes it plans..

Mind you, when a corporate goes all in on a production path,

there can be serious ramifications if they need to suddenly switch.

I hope Ford comes up with a beautiful Segway to hybrids and EREVs.

Edited November 10, 2025 by jpd80

[morgan20]

6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I hope Ford comes up with a beautiful Segway

 

[akirby]

8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The biggest tell is that Ford is prepared to pause Lightning production 

and give the aluminium bodies over to other F Series production.

That just means regular F150s are more profitable than Lightnings which is not a surprise.  F150 is probably more profitable than just about everything else.

[rmc523]

On 11/7/2025 at 7:59 PM, DeluxeStang said:

It's up in the air. At first we thought it was maverick sized, then we thought it was ranger sized. Now it's back to thinking it's maverick sized. At least that's what I saw with a quote from dealers who saw it at an event. 

 

My guess is slightly larger than a maverick, still considerably smaller than a ranger. Maybe it's maverick sized but thanks to ev packaging advantages has a bed and cab size comparable to mid-sized trucks. 

 

I think it'll fall somewhere right in the middle and straddle the compact/midsize segments.  I think your last sentences are accurate, though the "considerably" is probably excessive.

 

On 11/7/2025 at 8:03 PM, DeluxeStang said:

Even though it's not currently profitable, I believe Ford should stay in the full sized truck EV market. Backing out of that and ceding buyers to to other full-sized EVs is a decision that would bite Ford in the ass long term imo. The focus should be on CE1, but t3 still sounds like a promising product Ford shouldn't just walk away from it.

 

I agree that they should at least have an entrant, and keep it up to date until they do move forward with T3.

 

On 11/7/2025 at 10:41 PM, jpd80 said:

 

And the reason Ford delayed T3 for three years is because smaller batteries in CE1 add up to more profitable enterprise. The fact that Ford spent billions on T3 and is prepared to delay for three years is an indication of just how big of a money pit it is on both costs and lack of sufficient buyers, the business case collapsed the day that Lightning reservations evaporated and production can’t even fill REVC, BOC production plant not needed for years, Big black economic hole for now.

 

They definitely need to take CE1 learnings and apply it to T3.  If they can manage to make a small inexpensive vehicle profitable, how/why can't they do the same for a larger vehicle?

 

10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The biggest tell is that Ford is prepared to pause Lightning production 

and give the aluminium bodies over to other F Series production.

 

I feel for Ford, things are really piling up on them, aluminum,

chips, and a major course correction with BEVs.

 

Is is any wonder that Ford constantly tears up and redoes it plans..

Mind you, when a corporate goes all in on a production path,

there can be serious ramifications if they need to suddenly switch.

I hope Ford comes up with a beautiful Segway to hybrids and EREVs.

 

I don't really think this is telling us much at all......aside from things we already knew - that ICE F-150 is the profit driver for the whole company.  It also represents 40% of the entire company's sales, vs 1.4% of sales?  Naturally they're going to prioritize it.

 

[Texasota]

14 hours ago, Biker16 said:

How do you know how profitable or non-profitable any vehicle Ford makes is or isn't?

The fact that the competition seems to be capable of doing Things that Ford can't should be a major concern and point to issues within the company. 

Another big tell is the low number of Lightning sales. Very difficult to recoup the Lightning development costs with a small sales volume like that. Ford Model E is bleeding billions.
 

If you are referring to large BEV pickups,  then the competition is doing no better than Ford. GMs large BEV pickups are selling in low numbers. Cybertruck is selling poorly with a huge inventory. Stellantis has cancelled their BEV Ram. 

[rmc523]

10 minutes ago, Texasota said:

Another big tell is the low number of Lightning sales. Very difficult to recoup the Lightning development costs with a small sales volume like that. Ford Model E is bleeding billions.
 

If you are referring to large BEV pickups,  then the competition is doing no better than Ford. GMs large BEV pickups are selling in low numbers. Cybertruck is selling poorly with a huge inventory. Stellantis has cancelled their BEV Ram. 

 

 

Model E results are skewed because of factory costs.  To directly saddle Mach E and/or Lightning with all Model E costs isn't entirely fair, IMO.  It's possible those models could be profitable looking at them individually/in a vacuum (unknown, I'm just saying it's theoretically possible), but Model E as a whole has to account for building BOC and whatnot, which won't recoup investments until it actually comes online (which has been pushed back).

 

Here's the overall BEV truck market as of Q3, which Ford is still leading even with small sales.  To be fair, the Chevy/GMC are still relatively new and have been growing, but still obviously fall short of Lightning at this point in time, and they had a far greater investment than Ford did with Lightning.

 

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, akirby said:

That just means regular F150s are more profitable than Lightnings which is not a surprise.  F150 is probably more profitable than just about everything else.

In my defence , I was responding to how do we know if a vehicle is profitable or non-profitable and in the past Farley has expressed concerns that larger batteries  don’t give bigger profits like larger ICE vehicles do.

Who knows what that figure is for Lightning without government tax credits… I think they were petty important to the business case.

 

Ford will never outright tell us which vehicles are non-profitable until after they are axed, all we can ever see is their profitability preference.

Edited November 10, 2025 by jpd80

[Texasota]

3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

In my defence , I was responding to how do we know if a vehicle is profitable or non-profitable and in the past Farley has expressed concerns that larger batteries  don’t give bigger profits like larger ICE vehicles do.

Who knows what that figure is for Lightning without government tax credits… I think they were petty important to the business case.

 

Ford will never outright tell us which vehicles are non-profitable until after they are axed, all we can ever see is their profitability preference.

Jim Farley more or less did tell us last February:

 

Quote

But for larger retail electric utilities, the economics are unresolvable.

 

Ford CEO Jim Farley Says Large Retail Oriented EVs Aren't Viable

 

 

 

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, Texasota said:

Jim Farley more or less did tell us last February:

 

 

Ford CEO Jim Farley Says Large Retail Oriented EVs Aren't Viable

 

 

 

Thank you, another quote from Farley in the same paragraph,

 

Quote

Retail customers have shown that they will not pay any premium for these large EVs, making them a really tough business case given the expense in the batteries."

 

 

[morgan20]

8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Thank you, another quote from Farley in the same paragraph,

Retail customers have shown that they will not pay any premium for these large EVs, making them a really tough business case given the expense in the batteries."

 

Yea, the business case may be tough, but that doesn't mean that Large Retail Oriented EVs Aren't Viable. The solution for Ford is to get the price of those large EVs down so that retail customers don't have to pay any premium. My 2022 F-150 Lightning was priced around $40k. An equivalent 2025 model is closer to $50k. There's no reason that improved production processes and supply chain management combined with the declining prices for lithium ion batteries can't make the $40k price point a reality again. Ford's skunkworks has already been workin' on this.

 

An engineering magazine mentioned this:

 

 

 

[akirby]

16 minutes ago, morgan20 said:

There's no reason that improved production processes and supply chain management combined with the declining prices for lithium ion batteries can't make the $40k price point a reality again. Ford's skunkworks has already been workin' on this.

My point exactly and why I think T3 is viable with the CE1 improvements.

[rmc523]

15 hours ago, Texasota said:

Jim Farley more or less did tell us last February:

 

 

Ford CEO Jim Farley Says Large Retail Oriented EVs Aren't Viable

 

 

 

 

Most things aren't viable until they are.

 

I don't see why learnings can't be applied to bring costs down.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

 

Most things aren't viable until they are.

 

I don't see why learnings can't be applied to bring costs down.

They can and are but he’s talking about today.

[jpd80]

ok, let’s look at business case issues,
Even if Ford could launch T3 tomorrow with all of CE1’s manufacturing improvements,

there’s still the the problem of the mandatory big battery, it’s higher cost and the

affect the added weight has on the expected range when either carrying or towing loads. There’s no getting around the difference in cost and capability between the

ice F150/Expedition and the T3 pickup and Utility.

 

All of those issues are interlinked and exactly why there’s still not enough buyers,

Ford is hoping that changes in three years time, Ford has already taken three

years to watch Lightning perform in the market so they know the temperature

of today’s market and what’s coming next year….

Edited November 11, 2025 by jpd80

[rmc523]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

They can and are but he’s talking about today.

 

Sure.

 

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

ok, let’s look at business case issues,
Even if Ford could launch T3 tomorrow with all of CE1’s manufacturing improvements,

there’s still the the problem of the mandatory big battery, it’s higher cost and the

affect the added weight has on the expected range when either carrying or towing loads. There’s no getting around the difference in cost and capability between the

ice F150/Expedition and the T3 pickup and Utility.

 

All of those issues are interlinked and exactly why there’s still not enough buyers,

Ford is hoping that changes in three years time, Ford has already taken three

years to watch Lightning perform in the market so they know the temperature

of today’s market and what’s coming next year….

 

It's an oversimplification, but I look at it as a chicken or the egg situation.  I think many potential EV truck buyers haven't been impressed by what's been put on the market, but companies won't go "full throttle" on the product without those customers being there.  Couple that with (temporarily) relaxed regulations, and I get why Ford is pushing T3 back....but I think it's a long-term mistake to push it back too far, as those regulations could be reinstated down the road.

Also, a big new factory being empty doesn't seem like the best use of resources?

[Sherminator98]

IMO it all boils down to affordability with EVs

 

If Ford can make the T3 and sell it for lets say $50-60K decently equipped with about 300 miles of range, I think a lot of the concerns that people have about EVs will go away or not have as much pressure with people buying them. 

 

That is going to be the issue with EV adaption-pricing and being able to charge easily. Ford is providing chargers or what providing them with the Mach E and Lightning and I think they might have been subsidizing the installation costs to a point.

As for the BOC plant, I'm sure that plan B or C is to add some sort of EREV production if needed to keep it busy

[jpd80]

Both valid points RMC523 and Sherminator,

Whats happened this year with other external forces on all domestic

auto manufacturers is probably weighing heavily, the need to keep

strong profits coming from ICE sales but also  with Ford, aluminum 

land impending chip shortages to name a few….a lot of noise with

the mainstream business.

 

CE1 offers a new BEV with a more economic build process and an 

opportunity to show buyers something more affordable that isn’t

too gigantic in statue or price. Maybe  this new pickup is the perfect

counterpoint for Tesla Y and 3, something completely different that

hits the mark with more North American buyers?

Edited November 12, 2025 by jpd80