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theoldwizard

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Posts posted by theoldwizard

  1. On 3/2/2020 at 2:21 PM, 7Mary3 said:

     Ford has stated they are not interested in offering 'factory' CNG vehicles, but work with many upfitters like Landi-Renzo under their QVM program. 

    I worked in the CNG industry a few years back (when it looked like CNG was going to have a BIG impact on the light duty market).  I was somewhat familiar with ALL of he suppliers ("Know they enemy/competition") and Landi-Renzo was one of the lower tier supplier (not a QVM at that time) !

     

    Most of the other upfitters bailed out of light duty once the oil industry figured out how to frack for oil and not just gas.

  2. 14 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

     

    I was under the impression why the E-150 went away was it was stuck in the no mans land when it came to CAFE due to its footprint. 

    E150/E250 and the "van" versions of the E350/E450 were dropped because they did not meet, at the time, future crash standards.  Transit was scheduled for a major freshening at that time so the decision was to do only one of them.  (Few people know this, but EU could not figure out how to meet US crash standards.  A team from the US was sent over to show them "how to do it", but the new version was at least 1 year late from the original plan.)  IMHO, it was a major mistake to let EU make all of the decisions. 

    • No "Titanium" edition for the US passenger van and the 2-passenger seat will only fit 2 occupants is they weigh less than 50 kg (110 lbs).  (Still no "Quad Captain's Chair" version like on the old Club Wagon Chateau.)
    • The rear air conditioning intrudes into the luggage area.  (Not available on cargo van versions.)
    • Tire size/selection is limited by the wheel openings. (Heavily loaded T350 vans experience short tire life.)
    • 4600 lbs tow limit on the passenger van is very low.
    • No integrated trailer brake control.
    • I never understood why it took so long to make AWD available in the US.  (Anyone thinking of "off roading" a Transit should look at how low the rear shock mounts are !)
    • How many customers have had their driveline flex joint ("giubo") replaced MORE THAN ONCE !

    A lot of these could be excused for the first year or so.  Adding factory AWD is the only one they "fixed".  (Did they finally go to a proper "Hooke's joint" in 2020 ?) And where is the diesel option !

  3. On 3/2/2020 at 11:06 AM, akirby said:

    Honestly it's no different than relying on one factory here in NA and having that factory burn down

    That same middle-level management guy was charge of that recovery process !  They recovered most (all?) of the dies.  Some where shipped over-night to that same company's manufacturing facility in EU (production was shifted to make F150 parts first).  While the manufacturer had declared that the plant and machinery were well over 50% loss, Ford employees assessed the equipment and were able to direct operation to get some of it back online within about two weeks.

    • Like 1
  4. IMHO, Ford is missing a "golden opportunity" in Medium Duty.  They could become the first OEM to offer a factory CNG option. !

     

    At the moment, CNG prices (at least in some states) are BELOW $2.00 GGE !  Ford could do a "factory" CNG F650/750 in less than a year.  Some minor changes to the intake manifold (mounting bosses for the CNG injectors), fuel line, brackets, tank, pressure regulator, "over lay" wiring harness, a couple of extra sensor and actuators (fuel related) and some simple software changes and they would be done.

     

    If they really want companies beating down the door to put orders in, add a tall deck (8.0+L) to the Godzilla to make up for any power loss and WOW !

     

    A CNG version of a Transit would be a bit more challenging (mounting location for the tank), but the Amazon "bean counter" would put an order in so fast, they would have to add another shift !

  5. On 2/27/2020 at 12:26 PM, rmc523 said:

     

    I think he's implying they're diverting resources from Bronco launch to other things (non Bronco related) to offset Chinese parts shortages.

    His statement was, "We need to make new tooling and find new supplier to keep production going on existing vehicle, but have been told to not let anything slip !"

  6. On 2/27/2020 at 11:24 AM, akirby said:

     

    I assume most of his insider friends are on the older end of the spectrum.   In my experience older workers are less receptive to change and more worried about layoffs if they're not quite retirement ready.    You'd probably get a slightly different view from younger/newer hires.

    The first person I referenced is set to retire around the end of the year.  They already talked to him about a possible promotion (which would likely make him an LL3) and he said, "Not interested."  He is in a very critical job, and does it very well.  Sadly, that has meant them "piling on" more and more responsibility.  He was quite happy when Ford decided to cut back in India.  One less sub-continent to visit !

     

    I do know someone at the opposite end of the "spectrum".  Hired into engineering about 2 years ago with a Master in Mechanical Engineering.  This kids has shown flashes of BRILLIANCE in some of his summer intern assignments (not at Ford) but, classic Ford, they have him stuck "in a corner" doing fairly menial work.  He will likely languish there because of the old adage "Be careful what you get good at.  You may be there for a LONG time !"  (One of his jobs is to collect parts/pieces of vehicles that have come off AFTER they have been crashed and catalog them and write reports.)

    • Like 1
  7. On 2/27/2020 at 11:16 AM, silvrsvt said:

    So the Bronco (or even other products) are that dependent on Chinese parts?!

    I am certain that every single product that Ford manufactures is dependent upon SOME part from China !

     

    The day I spoke with my "friend of a friend", he happened to put his hand in his pocket and pull out a couple of plastic clips.  He said, "These used to be mad in Wuhan.  It took about 5 weeks to get new dies made and line up a different supplier.  These are the first production samples."  He also said, "Many of the factories will be starting up soon, but they are 4-6 weeks behind on deliveries."

    • Like 1
  8. Recent comments from middle level engineering management

    • Poor mood in general through out all of engineering
    • Managers are hoping not to get another "haircut" (10% off the top) while being told not to let anything slip
    • Bronco launch is in jeopardy because resources shifted to get new tooling and vendors online to support loss of Chinese supply chain (most Chinese factories will be running by March 1st, but they have missed 4-6 weeks of production)
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  9. On 2/21/2020 at 9:32 AM, fordmantpw said:

    I have often wondered where the power was going to come from, but having some inside knowledge has helped calm those fears.  BEVs aren't magically going to start selling in tremendous numbers.  It will be a gradual adoption, and the increase in efficiency of all things electrical (LEDs, more efficient appliances, etc.) along with the upgrades to the distribution and generation of power, the electricity will be there (outside of CA :)).

    I agree 100% !  Too many "experts" are predicting the "end" of internal combustion engines in the next 10 years.

     

    If BEV hit 30% of the worldwide light vehicle production by 2030, I will be very surprised.

    • Like 1
  10. NASCAR already missed an opportunity several years ago.  They should have gone to 5.0L V8 as a step toward 3L V6.

     

    OHC would mean WOT RPM would go through the roof.  Even the current, super-durable,  metal valve springs are not going to survive 500+ miles at 10,000+ (more likely 11,000 or even 12,000) RPM.  Do we really want air-springs like F1 ?

     

    I see no advantage of going DI.  DI does NOT result in more HP or durability.  Just another mechanical thing (high pressure pump) to fail.  (A lot of the Ford EcoBoost engines have fallen back to a combination of PFI and DI.  They actuall run on PFI most of the time.)

     

    I also think the future of NASCAR is more road courses and big city street racing.  The Detroit/Belle Isle circuit is a great venue.  Setup and tear down do not affect commuter traffic as it is an island park.

  11. 12 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

    No-but if true that suggests a completely new cab.  Can't believe they would mess with doors on existing cab- unless of course composite doors then go on all SD cabs-which might be the case. 

    Disagree.  They could easily outsource the doors or build them at one of the plants already stamping aluminum.  Forget any kind of FRP.

     

    Actually, for the small weight savings, why would the do it at all ?

  12. 16 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

    "Assuming that Ford delivers strong products (likely), and that new-vehicle demand in the U.S. remains robust (less certain), auto investors should expect the new Broncos to make a nice positive contribution to Ford's margins next year."

     

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/17/revealed-fords-plan-to-go-big-with-the-bronco.aspx

    WOW !  Talk about "blowing sunshine up a hole in the nether regions" !

     

    Based on the past couple of launches, I don't expect this launch (Bronco) to be "flawless".  It IS within Ford's control, but ...  Neither Farley or Hackett have a good track record as leaders !  If something does go bad, it is a short drive for hundreds of engineers in Dearborn to get to the Wayne plant.

     

    The one thing Ford does NOT have any control over and is making the worldwide economy very nervous is the novel coronavirus (NoCOVID-19).  Ford is already scrambling trying make new tooling and line up suppliers outside of China for some parts (likely for F150 and Explorer).  This worked when one their key supplier had a factory fire a couple of years ago, but this would be bigger.  (After the fire, some dies were recovered and shipped to other plants.)  If the economy tanks or there are launch problems, you can bet the dividend will be cut !

     

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    I certainly would NOT be investing in F at the moment.  MO would be a better bet for a good dividend stock. 

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