kris_norway

I agree that Volvo in current state is not good. But the brand. The patents. The R&D. But anyways - to totally restruct volvo would probably cost billions. So easier to make Lincoln the luxury. Not Volvo. As far as I understood, the last decade, Volvo has generated alot of profits for Ford. Really alot - which Ford has taken back to the US. But I might be wrong. I just remember to have read that somwhere....

I just checked the anual report from 2001. Volvo has 2500 dealers world wide. Lincoln has 1560 worldwide. Lincoln sold 159 000 cars that year. Volvo sold 406 000 cars. In my eyes, as I know Volvo from Europe. They should have kept Volvo. Used Volvo as basis for the premier lincolns. Move Volvo in instead of the mercury lineup. Kill mercury. Move Lincoln higher up - above audi or bmw in quality. Anyways 1.8 billion shares was outstanding in 2001. At at stockprice of around 30-35 = $60 billion. As we are at $44, it is awfully close to a sell. But at the same time - the dollar has depreciated quite substantially. 30-40% since that time. meaning that Ford might return to $80 billion marketcap. Aprox twice today? If everything goes right. I will sell out on Q1 after Volvo sale is confirmed and we get some earnings numbers for Q1 which should be good after the Toyota failure.. When does usually Ford release quarterly Q1 earnings? K

I agree with many of the last comments. Also regarding the thing that Fiesta and Focus can fail. It is important to sell when everyone is optimistic. But the question is - when is maximum optimism? It is clear when looking at analyst meaning, that they are starting to become happy. The Ford stock might correct in not to long also? Its gone far, fast... I think I will wait until Q1 numbers. Se the finalized sale of Volvo and the cash it brings. Se if analysts , which average the stock as OVERWEIGHT, put it up another ticker - to BUY rating. Then I think I will sell.... I have been in this stock for 3 years now. K

Volvo might be a better fit than Lincoln. It also has this very nice brand equity. Ford at low-cost platform Mercury above Volvo above mercury and Lincoln as premimum luxury? - based on Volvo platforms? volvo car platforms are great. if you ask me. Let mercury die. Put Volvo in its place...... Ford low cost - Volvo above Ford. Lincoln as premimum luxury. Volvo is considerd a 'premium' workhorse, not ultra luxury. Especially, if the US goes down the drain - europe and asia will be the next growth countries to focus on. Volvo is very widely known in the rest of the world. It might be a mistake? K

That is why i started this post. To get a debate, if Ford could reach the marketcap price of Honda / Toyota? There is no such thing called 'stable stock prices'. But I agree. Optimism is starting to set in, so we should all maybe think of selling it. Atleast as a foreigner. As an American, i would be very afraid of what happens to the dollar after the US Federal Reserve dollar printing. Your pruchasing power as americans is going to be halved the next 3-5years. So maybe stay in stocks? Ford debt is going to be inflated away with high inflation. K

NOT MARKETSHARE!! MARKETCAP! Marketcap is the total value of a company noted on the stock exchange. Ford was priced at $4 billion in 2008. Now it is priced at $40 billion. And question is - could Ford be worth $80 billion marketcap? in that case, the stock could double from here. Toyota on the other hand has a marketcap of $127 billion today. Meaning - Toyota can never go 10x from todays stock valuation.

Well, in my eyes marketcap is a big deal. No way Toyota could go 10 time from todays valuation. But Ford went 1200% from bottom in 2008. K

So guys - how far do you think Ford can go? Of course there is no really limit. Depends on the weakening of the dollar also.. I think this will go to $20 at start of 2011. Then marketcap is ca 80billion + debt. That will of course then not be a cheap stock. Jim Cramer - says he thinks Ford will become the worlds biggest automaker. That he is on to it - might mean that everybody else should sell now ?. K

Right. How could I forget. Honda is a much wider company.. So if we want to compare prices - which company is the best to compare? FORD vs NISSAN ?? or maybe actually Ford vs Toyota. Toyota is 3 x marketcap of Ford - so we could atleast expet a $20 Ford if they keep up???

God point. But they could have integrated Volvo into Ford, closing down swedish factories etc. But a debt ridden Ford coudlnt take this risk as it would be the highest cost in the first run. You guys are probably right... great replies. Now I can sleep good at night

OK. it seems partly justied then. I know mercury, lincoln, ford is a old union, but Volvo really seems as the better brand? And it really reflects everything Ford is trying to make around the blue oval image today. But MKX is nice. The Lincoln MKT and the Flex seems like a disaster invention.... wonder how the Flex failed like this. 2000 sold in February? Thats like 22 000 anually, about 80k below Fords own forcast. But I guess, its not like they dont know this ...

So its investor psychology? Because regarding the facts(yahoo finance): Honda: Total Cash (mrq): 11.96B Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 3.296 Total Debt (mrq): 47.32B Ford: Total Cash (mrq): 32.74B Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 9.901 Total Debt (mrq): 132.02B Of course.. Ford has this debt, but this is included the 95 billion which is under the Ford Credit part. Which is not directly tied to the company. The credit could fail and Ford Motor is on its own. If you remove that, Ford Motor co actually has less debt than Honda. Hondas historic returns makes its 3 x marketcap price of Ford justified? hmm... somebody should have a look at this. I dont know how the Honda Finance arm works, if it is integrated or owned by somebody else.

Fords marketcap is $40 billion. Honda Motor Co marketcap is $126 billion. According to yahoo finance, Honda is not at all debt free. Ford got $25 billion in debt. Ford is a bigger worldwide producer than Honda? Margins are coming up to Honda levels.... should Ford atleast not be priced as much as Honda marketcap minus the debt? $126b - $25b = aprox $100 billion marketcap..... which translates to a 120% higher stock valuation. Any thoughts on this valuation dilemma of Ford? What does Honda have that Ford does not? K

Hi guys My first post. I have been a Ford stock owner for the last 3 years. I just wonder, why did Ford not just kill Lincoln and use the famous Volvo brand as their flagship/premiums? Does Lincoln outsell Volvo on a global basis? Volvo is allready a global brand. Volvo has all the things that Ford brand is trying to create for itself. Attributes like SAFETY, HIGH TECH, SMART. And their new cars are very nice. I do not understand - why not kill Lincoln and make Volvo the premier brand?? Instead of trying to rebuild Lincoln which seems to fail. Any inputs on this? Thanks Kris