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bzcat

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Posts posted by bzcat

  1. 4 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

     

    Isn't Toyota/Hino  a big player in trucks on the world scene?

     

    Hino the company is a fully owned subsidiary of Toyota and most of its factory in Japan are actually building other Toyotas (e.g. 4Runner, Prado, Dyna, Coaster etc). It is too fully integrated with the mothership so I don't see how it can be spun off. Toyota would have to somehow backfill all those production capacity or reach some sort of contract manufacturing agreement with an independent Hino after spin off. Not sure there is a lot of economic sense for Toyota to do this. It's not facing a lot of shareholder pressure to increase profit margin like Daimler or VW, which was the main reason they spun off the heavy truck operation.

     

    Hino the brand has significant market share in medium and heavy duty trucks and buses in Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa. But in most markets, it operates under the local Toyota management - i.e. Hino is just like Lexus or Daihatsu in most places - just another Toyota brand without separate management. The US market is actually kind of unique for Hino.  

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  2. 6 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

    The Cougar was basically a 2 door Contour....

     

    My sister had a Probe and then a Cougar. She killed both those products off LOL

     

     

     

    I owned a 1999 Cougar too... my first new car in fact. 2.5 V6 170hp and one of my friend had a Contour SE with 2.5 V6 too. We ran those cars hard and did a lot of stupid things with it... ? It's a miracle they survived our ownership.

     

  3. 1 hour ago, spudz64 said:

    I hit 109mph in mine back in the day lol The rear passive steering really helped the car tuck in on corners and you could really feel it. 

    Yeah too bad Ford killed all many coupes around ‘97…it wasn’t an airbag thing, if I recall they moved to more trucks, and the market was dying? The Cougar was an interesting addition and gave Mercury a unique coupe.

     

    Cougar was initially conceived as a replacement for Probe. It was a direct replacement for Probe in Europe. The name changed to Mercury Cougar fairly late in the development.

     

    The heritage lineage: 

    Capri --> Sierra coupe (XR4Ti) --> Probe --> Cougar

     

    3 of those were sold in the Mercury showroom in North America but all 4 were Ford outside North America.

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  4. US pickup trucks (US vehicles in general) enjoys a small but robust market in the Nordic countries. Unlike much of Europe, Nordic countries tends to have wide roads and ample parking in its urban centers which is why historically, US imports have had a foothold there. For example, Ford sold Taurus wagon in the Nordic region for many years after the Granada wagon was discontinued. I spent a couple of weeks in Sweden for work a few years ago and US imports were very common. Not as common as Volvo obviously but enough that after the 3rd or 4th Ram or Mustang, I stopped counting.

     

    For many year, Ford was actually a top 3 selling brand in the Nordic countries offering a combination of German and US models. Things kind of fell apart when VW and Toyota made a strong push in the region and Ford retreated. 

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  5. On 4/14/2023 at 7:22 PM, 2005Explorer said:

    That was the vans before the Previa and I think it was mainly the mid engined Nissan vans that suffered from fire problems.

     

    All three (Toyota Townace, Nissan Vanette, Mitsubishi Delica) suffered from heat problems in the US market because they put big engines in them that were not designed to handle. But only the Nissan was fire prone and subsequently recalled and crushed.

     

    A good condition US spec Toyota or Mitsubishi vans actually fetch good money now. And the JDM imports of 4WD versions that were never offered here are going for crazy money.

     

     

  6. Ford is probably looking at the new Chevy Trax and Buick Envista and thinking that there is a missed opportunity here with Ford Territory or Equator Sport. Territory and Escort are both past the sell-by date in China and in desperate need of replacement. Also with Focus going out of production in Europe this year, China will carry on as the main market for Ford's ICE cars - I would be shocked if Ford doesn't have something already line up in the pipeline to replace them (Territory, Escort, Focus)

     

    Ford cannot import them from China to sell in the US because of the 25% Trump Tariff - it will eat up all the margin on cheap cars (it's probably barely breaking even on Nautilus). So will they assemble these low costs models in Mexico for sale throughout the Americas? There is probably a business case there but it depends on whether Farley is interested in shoring up the low end of the market.

  7. On 4/28/2023 at 6:24 PM, GearheadGrrrl said:

    Dumb marketing- Potential buyer will think it's vaporware from another incredible disappearing EV maker. Unless maybe Daimler expects it to fail and doesn't want to spoil their Freightliner or Mercedes brands good(?) name by associating with it?

     

    I guess the unique distribution deal is the reason why it couldn't be sold as Freightliner. 

     

    But I agree with you that the name is pretty horrible. Makes me think this is a fly by night Chinese brand with no track record.

  8. On 3/31/2023 at 8:52 AM, Rick73 said:


    Because 2 hours worth of storage seems pointless unless it’s there to handle power fluctuations and to provide time to bring other equipment online when solar output drops off.

     

    When solar is a very small part of total, it’s easier to essentially ignore its contribution to the total, but as it becomes a greater percentage of total grid capacity, you can’t just suddenly reduce its contribution without adverse consequences.  The more solar you have, the more critical it becomes.

     

    If you are counting on solar power output and suddenly it drops off due to weather changes (clouds, storms, etc.) then battery storage can pick up the slack until conditions return to normal, or managers bring other equipment online.  In my opinion renewables are great at some things, but making the grid and its operation simple isn’t one of them.

     

    Some states have codified their short duration (2 to 4 hours) storage requirements which is why most of the projects are in this time span. Almost all of this market is batteries. Short duration is designed by default to provide operational reserve like you said.

     

    Long duration (4 to 8 hours) storage are still in its infancy and is dominated by pumped hydro. But several alternatives like gravity have emerged. Time shift on renewable is in the long duration market and most states are finalizing their regulatory targets. We should see lots of developments in this area in the next couple of years.

     

    Ultra long duration (8 hours to days/weeks/months) are focused on hydrogen. This segment is actually more advanced than long duration because the needs are clear. For example, to provide power during fire season/wind advisory events in California when the powerlines are de-energized to prevent wildfire. We may need to hold this energy reserve in standby for weeks or months at a time. Hydrogen is the ideal medium. 

     

     

  9. Grid level storage will be required to provide resiliency to enable better utilization of renewable sources. That's where states that have forward looking regulatory agencies are looking and a few have legislated required storage as a % of generating capacity. 

     

    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/infographic-q4-21-us-battery-storage-by-the-numbers#:~:text=Currently%2C nine states have specific,New York%2C Oregon and Virginia.

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  10. 43 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


    You know, it would be nice if we could get that thorough of a lineup here and really stick it up Tacoma’s ass. Alas, it will never happen. 

     

    Well, we know we are getting Raptor and we already have Tremor as a package not a trim level. And Wildtrak seems to approximate Lariat. So I suppose Platinum is really the only one missing in the US. 

     

    I think Ford could try harder to sell Ranger in the US but then they have to deal with reducing Bronco output and give up that profit margin... it's a balancing act. 

  11. The RoW Ranger line up is heavily skewing towards the private buyers which is an interesting development. 

     

    When Wildtrak first got added to T6 about 2 years after the debut of global Ranger, I remember reading either Car or Top Gear and the writer was very skeptical that a market exists for non-farm use pickup truck in the UK. I have to see if I can find that article... 

    UK-Ranger-line-up.jpg

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  12. 8 hours ago, AM222 said:

    A compact SUV is for sure more expensive, less aerodynamic, heavier and less efficient than a similar size compact car. This applies to both BEVs and ICE vehicles.
    This is why I think Ford needs to continue offering cars, probably something like a new gen Fiesta & Focus with EV versions.

     

    Calling Explorer EV a compact SUV is really stretching the term. The size and ground clearance seems to be almost the same as existing Focus. Basically, if everything is marketed as SUV or CUV, does the term even mean anything anymore?

     

    Puma has mostly replaced Fiesta and Explorer EV is replacing Focus, at least in Europe where these models are sold. 

     

    Ford probably will sell a EV sedan in China at some point but there won't be EV versions of Fiesta or Focus per se. 

  13. 4 hours ago, fordmantpw said:

     

    Yes, that is true, currently.  Most electricity generation is done by base load plants that need to run at a constant rate 24 hours/day.  You can't just crank a 1200MW generator up and down based on load, it needs to generate the same power around the clock.  We had to turn our nuke plant down ~10% for a few days in some extremely cold weather in December in order to keep grid voltage in check, and that was a HUGE deal.  That's why, today, nighttime power is less expensive.  The same (relatively) amount is being generated, but less is being consumed. 


    However, with the transition to renewables, that isn't the case any more.  Solar is a huge part of renewables, and it doesn't generate any electricity at night, so there goes a huge chunk of your generation when the sun goes down.  You don't have all that base load running 24/7 anymore.  As more coal plants get shut down in favor of green energy, I expect to see a parity of prices between night and day power usage.  Nighttime power will be more sparse, and base loads will need to be supplemented by energy stored in batteries.  Those batteries take on all shapes and forms, including water stored in big reservoirs on top of a hill.

     

    I came to post this pretty much verbatim. 

     

    Night time charging now is generally considered green because we are just wasting that output to keep the base load on conventional power plants.

     

    Night time charging in the future will be less green because it will be disproportionally fossil fuel generated. While day time electricity will more likely be renewable.

     

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  14. 18 hours ago, T-dubz said:

    ford-electric-vehicles-based-on-meb-plat
    we know the explorer ev is pretty small. You could probably call it a hatchback if you really wanted to. The capri (on the right) appears to be even smaller and is described as a sporty coupe like crossover. Why don’t we call it what it really is….a sedan ???

     

    Explorer and Capri are replacing Focus so think of one as a new Focus wagon and the other as new Focus hatch. It's silly marketing to call these CUV but when everything is a CUV, does that even mean anything anymore? ?

  15. Hydrogen will make sense for some fleet operators but it won't for private buyers or any fleet that will depend on public fueling facilities which doesn't exist and too cost prohibitive to even contemplate on a scale comparable to current public EV charging infrastructure. 

     

    But Ford is the leading provider of trucks to the kind of fleet operators that has the means to invest in localized hydrogen storage facility so Ford is probably the only OEM that has enough economy of scale to invest in hydrogen pickup trucks. The article basically fail to point out this obvious reality. Stellantis and GM doesn't sell as medium duty trucks to fleets as Ford so they can't make any serious investment in hydrogen (which will remain a niche market no matter what people wish). But noticed Ford's partnership is with natural gas companies and the fossil fuel industry... there is really no one out there seriously putting a lot of money in producing non-fossil fuel derived hydrogen, which is the problem. The math inevitably fails because hydrogen is grossly inefficient at energy storage so the money is better spent at improving other storage mediums with better upside. Hydrogen only makes sense economically if you are using natural gas as a feedstock. So all the money in promoting hydrogen is coming fossil fuel industry looking for a way to greenwash its product.

     

     

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  16. 41 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

     

    Ford's current breakdown may shed some light on this......currently they group ALL F-series together.  On the sales charts, "F-series" = F-150 + Lightning + Super Duty.

     

    F-150 Lightning, while it appears on the chart, is just broken out as notation, and not a separate line item.  In other words, the Lightning line item is not in addition to the F-series line item, Lightning's figure is included in F-series.  They just call out Lightning to show the sales performance of it.  Same with Transit/E-Transit.

     

    I'd imagine down the road, they'd do the same thing with any new version of Lightning, at least until they even out.

     

     

    I can definitely see them retaining the current Lightning for some time as a "Lightning classic" if you will - but with improved tech over the years - to appeal to more traditional buyers, while the T3 version will be more pure lifestyle/futuristic.

     

    I see it more as Lightning will continue to be EV version of ICE F-150, whereas T3 project is on a different clean sheet BEV platform that is not related to ICE F-150.

     

    I think Ford will continue update Lightning with each new ICE F-150 update. And T3, which retaining the F-series branding, will probably be on its own separate model timeline. Like how Super Duty is basically its own model but still part of the F-series sub-brand. 

     

    And I don't think "lifestyle" is the right word to describe T3. It's probably aimed at retail buyers but so are ICE F-150 once fleet sales switches mostly to EV. 

  17. 2 hours ago, blksn8k2 said:

    It is kind of odd that here Ford markets both the Maverick and Ranger as "lifestyle" trucks. I guess they're just giving us options. LOL

     

    If you want a "work" truck in North America you're supposed to buy an F-series. Or a Tacoma...:stirpot:

     

    Most trucks are sold as lifestyle accessories. I'm not sure what is the point of your comment. Ford markets F-series as lifestyle truck too. What kind of "work" do you think Raptor or F-450 Platinum is doing beside social signaling for the owner?

     

     

    • Like 2
  18. 6 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

     

    Farley stated inferentially in the 'Fireside Chat' that the purpose of the additional production capacity for EVs is not to maintain market share, but to grow market share. He's also indicated previously and again here that the product(s) from BOC will be quite different from the current Lightning. It all sounds like Farley intends to continue 'classic' Lightning production in Michigan (perhaps for Ford Pro) and plans to grow sales and market share with BOC. Ford will build ICE F Series as long as the market exists and the government allows. It follows that the added Lightning capacity coming later this year isn't planned for short term manufacturing, but planned for continued future output.

     

    Farley has also given hints about T3 styling with comments in the Fireside Chat about what Ford have learned about improving range with better aero, etc.. It's there to be read... and dovetails with ExplorerDude's comments.

     

    Yep... sounds like Lightning will stay beyond the launch of T3. Farley has hinted that several times now.

     

    I have no doubt the new one (Thunder?) will push the envelope on aero and efficiency. 

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