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bzcat

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bzcat last won the day on January 15

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  1. Exactly... the interpretation of the tax credit likely means every EV from now on will have 3 rows of seat to qualify it as a "truck", no matter the size.
  2. Storage, storage, storage. I can't repeat that often enough. We don't have problem generating renewable energy. It is the cheapest form of energy. The grid needs more storage to enable time shift to consumption, and Govt needs to provide financial incentives for power producers to shift to renewables early before the existing useful life of coal and gas plants expire. Our problem right now is not that we can't build new infrastructure. The problem is existing asset owners doesn't want to impair their assets on their balance sheet (it has financial implications). In order to rebalance that, we have to change the economic incentives and related accounting practice. This is why the fossil fuel industry to launching all out fake news assault on ESG financial reporting guidelines like they did with global warming.
  3. Lincoln Star is a preview for a production car due in 2025. L100 doesn't have any production relevance but more of a brand building exercise.
  4. The new Transit Courier was spotted: https://www.motor1.com/news/631301/ford-transit-courier-spied-production-body/ Looks bigger which means Ford is likely positioning it as a replacement for both the existing Transit Courier and the Transit Connect in Europe. The rebadged VW Caddy may stay only as a passenger van Tourneo Connect.
  5. Lincoln has show two concept vehicles last year: Star and L100 Star is a preview of production 2025 EV CUV which could slot in between Aviator and Corsair. The few articles I've read suggested it is basically Lincoln version of gen 2 Mach E so that could be the Nautilus replacement. L100 is a sedan but it's hard to imagine Lincoln trying to do another Continental. But it does suggest that they have more products planned for Lincoln than what they are willing to tell us.
  6. I don't think Ford will do LWB and SWB Explorer. But there will definitely be multiple sizes of GE2 models for sale. Gen 2 Mach E could have a long roof companion that could be called Edge. And I'm sure Lincoln will get a version of gen 2 Mach E too.
  7. You are asking the right question but drawing the wrong inference. Renewable is cheapest on per KW basis but there is fixed costs for power producers to switch. It's a question of capital investment. US Govt policy hasn't favor renewable until fairly recently. For most of the 21st century, the US govt encouraged fracking and discouraged investment in wind and solar so gas generation predictably increased. Those newly installed gas capacity over the last 20 years has useful life of 30 years on average so they are not going to be phased out overnight. The Govt policy is now more balanced rather than lopsided in favor of gas so solar and wind capacity are growing much faster than other sources. And as I mentioned before, coal is basically regulated out of existence now so it will decline every year as old plants retire. So would gas's share of the total power generation as the plants retire.
  8. It's unclear for sure. Mach E sales in Europe is constrained by how many Ford can ship over so I have to think that Farley is looking at building it in Europe. I suspect at the end, Ford will have the option to build any GE2 vehicles in Spain and they will all be on the table. And don't forget that Ford's arrangement with VW to supply Transit Connect in Europe is at best a temporary thing. I think Ford will want to produce its own vans in Europe again ASAP because they are key profit drivers for Ford Europe. So Transit Connect EV (GE2 based?) should land in Valencia.
  9. The second Ford-SK battery plant in Georgia should be open in 2023. Perhaps that is why Ford is scheduling a 3rd shift for Maverick. They think they get now get enough batteries for some high in demand builds. Plant 1 opened in 2022 and supplies F-150 Lightning Plant 2 opens in 2023 and supplies ??? Plant 3 (Blueoval TN) opens in 2024 and supplies Explorer (that's a guess) Plant 4 (Blueoval KY) opens in 2025 and should have enough to supply 2nd gen Lightning, and perhaps Escape too Ford has separate investment planned with CATL to build batteries for 2nd gen Mach E for 2026. Was supposed to be in VA but who know where it will land. Current Mach E and Transit battery is supplied by LG Chem which doesn't figure into Ford's strategic plan but Ford will probably continue to buy battery from it as needed. If you are doing the math... Ford US should have 21.5 GWh of in-house battery capacity by end of 2023. Triple that to about 65 GWh by end of 2024, and more than double again by end of 2025 to 150.5 GWh. The CATL investment will add even more to the 150.5 GWh. These numbers seem abstract so here are some comparison... From January 2021 to September 2022 (so 21 months total), Tesla delivered 1.85 million EV equal to 133 GWh of battery worldwide. So if you are trying to put into context what Ford is thinking, basically it is scaling up to compete with Tesla.
  10. Nothing official but we can probably read the tea leaf just like we did before with MEB. Ford said it will end ICE sales in Europe by 2030 so no new ICE model likely in the works given the development timeline. It's doubtful that Ford will renew the ICE Kuga without ICE Escape and vice versa. And we know no new ICE Escape is planned for North America. Kuga is build in Valencia which is switching to Ford's own (unspecified) EV platform, but it is most likely GE2 because the other one is TE1 and that ain't going to be build in Europe. The MEB CUV in Cologne is roughly the same size as ID.4 which as you noted, is almost identical to Escape in size. So my guess is MEB EV will go on sale in 2024 but Ford will keep Kuga in parallel for a few years because Valencia is not quite ready to switch to EV yet. Also Kuga is currently one of the top selling PHEV in Europe so might as well cash in while they still can. The question is what is Ford building in Valencia in a few years time... is it Explorer EV or gen 2 Mach E? Also keep in mind that Cologne MEB is actually two models... the conventional CUV is replacing (or in addition to) Kuga. The Sport Crossover is replacing Focus completely which is ending production in 2024.
  11. The original Hackett plan was to make Oakville the MEB center for North America so this model would have been sold here to replace Escape so I'm not surprised by the strong Explorer influence. Remember the talk a while back that Ford was going to make Explorer a "family" like Mustang, Bronco, Transit, and F-Series? This could have been Explorer Sport. The revised Farley plan is to limit use of MEB to just Europe and only in 1 plant (Cologne). The rest of Ford Europe plants are aligned with GE2 products (Valencia) or modified B2 platform EV (Craiova). Saarlouis is on the chopping block... rumor is BYD is going to buy it from Ford. Ford hasn't said much about smaller EV other than Puma, which will debut later this year. I think the price point for that China requires means we probably will see some creative engineering. If Puma is a guide (using existing B2 platform), maybe we will see some C2 EV to compliment the more premium GE2 EV by 2025 or 2026.
  12. For sure no vehicle import from China makes sense with 25% tariff still in place. Remember when Trump imposed the tariff and torpedoed Ford's plan to import Focus from China? Biden didn't lift those 25% tariff so that likely also ended any thought of Ford importing Mondeo, Evo, Edge or Nautilus from China. The biggest importer of vehicle from China was Geely which was selling Volvo S90 and XC60 from China in significant volume back then. They quickly pivoted and started building XC60 in the US. Say what you will about Trump's tariff with China... but it did basically to an end to any possibility of further imports of vehicles from China. And of course the Biden Admin is pretty much sticking with the same trade policy which favors EV made in North America. You can say that protecting the US auto industry is a bipartisan effort. One of the only few industrial policy that both parties agree on... hence the Chicken Tax is still on the books 50 years after the Chicken war with West Germany. I guess we'll be still talking about the Trump tax on cars 50 years from now... The other Trump tariff on Chinese imports will probably eventually go away but I don't see it getting repealed on vehicles.
  13. The US has basically outlawed coal power plant so we will be free of coal in the power grid largely by 2050. There may be a few exceptions but that is the rule. Also, we already have excess of renewable power generation capacity in North America... meaning we are able to produce more solar, wind, and hydro power at peak generation than we can distribute and consume. So the idea that we cannot replace coal power with renewable is false. The grid needs more storage capacity to enable time shift to consumption but generating capacity is not the bottleneck. The US has huge untapped potential for more solar and wind power. GHG reduction is good no matter where it come from. And all things equal, it is much better to have a few dozen large thermal power plants that several million tiny thermal power plants (i.e. ICE cars). The thermal efficiency of power plant is simple concept and I don't think it needs further explaining. We will see significant GHG reduction by gradual replacement of ICE with EV even if we don't retire coal or gas power plants. But since we are, the GHG reduction from phasing out of ICE cars is going to snowball once the grid becomes less carbon intensive.
  14. Its a good article to explain why regulators don't like PHEV... it is the ultimate green-wash vehicle. Most owners do not plug it in so they become gross polluters. Another point that people often miss is that CARB and EU have raised the EV miles requirements to certify PHEV to as many as 50 miles by 2030. This is leading many car companies to conclude it is a pointless endeavor because you have to make the battery so big to hit that 50 miles EV range, you might as well just make it all electric. Basically, the only PHEV that will make sense is large vehicles (like pickup trucks) that can accommodate enough batteries and still keep ICE and have enough room and payload leftover to be useful. The math doesn't work on smaller PHEV where cost and packaging constraints mean it's either a hybrid (which won't have minimum EV range hurdle) or EV.
  15. I don't get the black paint and rear bumper
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