bzcat
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Posts posted by bzcat
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40 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:
That is what I'm thinking-its a way of saying, you need to change and the change is going to be huge. I'm not sure how large dealership like Automall or Lithia are going to survive
Most of large dealers will just morph into real estate developers since they generally are sitting on a lot of valuable urban and suburban land.
The small rural dealers that don't own any valuable land... I think they are the one really fighting this.
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3 hours ago, silvrsvt said:
What is the point of even that-Ford isn’t investing money into ICE because it’s a technological “dead end”.
There will be more improvements in range and recharging in the next 10-15 years that will make whatever issues people are complaining about or expecting a BEV to operate just like a gas powered car that will be eliminated by those improvements.
Reminds me of all the predictions 30 years ago about how mobile phones was hopeless because 25% of the calls are dropped while you hardly ever get disconnected on a landline.
Turns out people don't really want to use mobile phones to call other people. The benefit of mobile phones were not clear to people that failed to understand the paradigm shift in how we use that technology. The same is happening now with EV. The people complaining about range or time to charge because they are locked in on the mindset of how they use ICE. These are the same types that were hot and bothered by the inferior call quality of early mobile phone, never imagining that they actually will almost never make a voice call on the so call "phone". And plus the dropped calls became less of a problem once the network became more robust and local WiFi became ubiquitous and calling via VoIP apps became the norm.
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On 6/6/2022 at 11:22 AM, bzcat said:
The article you posted mentioned the prototype was from China, which is of course LHD. I think they buried the lead in this article... this maybe the first confirmation that Ford is going to build the Ranger in China and this is probably a test build that is in Australia for test/evaluation since Ranger engineering center in there. The crewcab/long bed configuration is the most popular one for pickup trucks in China.
And of course it may also come to the US... I don't think there is anything inherently difficult about making long bed available on Ranger. Ford is the only midsize trucks in North America without this configuration as you mentioned.
So anyway... bumping this old thread because I just read that China State Council just released a new regulation that will repeal the ban on pickup trucks entering urban area in 2023.
Yes, in case you didn't know, pickup trucks are not allowed in urban areas in China. The repeal was widely expected which lead to a rush of new pickup truck models being launched by Chinese car companies in 2022.
I expect that with this repeal, Jianling Ford will begin local assembly and sales of Ranger in 2023. Jiangling Ford is already a major pickup truck seller in China with JMC Boadian and Yuhu pickup trucks so it was always just a matter of when not if Ranger will enter the market.
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4 hours ago, Trader 10 said:
BEVs aren’t rocket science. No reason a company with Toyotas resources can’t be matching the competitions 2nd generation models by 2027.
You are assuming Toyota has the resources to finance an all-out race to catch up. This is the problem for Toyota... they are starting so late and so far behind. They can, and they must spend a lot of money just to catch up but they won't have the luxury of using ICE profit to pay for the development of EV. It takes 5+ years to bring a new car to market but in that time, Toyota's ICE sales would have collapsed. It is already happening - sales of EV are now close to 20% in Europe and California and almost 30% in China... there is not going back. There is basically very little time left for Toyota to pivot and some auto industry analysis are starting to see the problem. Toyota literally have to spend double the money and do it in half of the time to have any hope of catching up.
The wheels on Toyota first EV bz4X is literally falling off and Toyota just said it doesn't plan to build it in volume until 2025. Let that sink in a bit... Toyota is not even going to attempt to compete in the EV market with their first gen EV until 2025 at the earliest when Ford will be about 2 years into the 2nd gen of F-150 Lightning. This means very little Toyota EV products will hit the market between now and 2027. Think about how many EV models Ford, GM, VW, Hyundai, Stellantis will push out between now and 2027?
How is Toyota going to compete with Tesla or BYD? If the US market is 30-40% EV by 2027 that means Toyota's profit for the ICE business is probably headed to the toilets (too much supply for the demand). Replicate this in Europe and China where EV could by 60-70% of the sales by 2027.
Basically, Toyoda's risk averse thinking has place his company at huge risks. Waiting until 2027 to compete is not a safe bet. It is actually very very risky.
It's not too late to pivot but the clock is ticking.
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In the auto industry, being a late comer is a normal and generally profitable strategy. For example, Ford followed Jeep Cherokee with Explorer and it turned out just fine. Ford also followed Toyota RAV4 with Escape and it has done reasonably well.
The question is how late... you don't want to be irrelevant. You can make an argument that the latest Lincoln Continental came too late... after the luxury sedan market had already peaked and entered the sales freefall stage. It's a great product but maybe 5 years too late.
For Toyota and the EV question, they are not too late yet but there is a real risk they become irrelevant if they don't act fast. It takes 5 years to develop a new car from scratch give or take. Given how comically uncompetitive bz4X is, it clearly shows that Toyota is maybe a decade behind Tesla, and at least 5 years behind Hyundai, Ford, VW, and GM, the legacy OEM that are best prepared. You can probably bridge that 5 year gap with lots of money but it will be a tall order for Toyota to start from zero and catch up with Tesla by 2032. It seems unlikely.
Some of you may question my characterization of Toyota as at "zero". I challenge you to take a closer look at bz4X and compare that with Ioniq5 or Mach E. Toyota's mindset is still at building "compliance" EV. They obviously didn't think this is a viable product otherwise they would not call it bz4X which is a complete disaster of a name. A properly designed and engineered Toyota EV should be called Prius... the fact that Toyota wasn't prepared to do that says a lot about where they are at. Hyundai and Ford are almost 3 years into the first generation of "real" EV... cars designed to sell on merit not to satisfy some Govt mandate. It will take a complete sea-change in organization and leadership for Toyota to deliver something different in 5 years. The besy case scenario for Toyota is to bring out a Prius EV by 2027 to replace the pathetic bz4X. But by 2027, Hyundai and Ford would be well onto the 2nd generation of Ioniq 5 and Mach E, plus all the other EVs they've been working on. This is an existential crisis for Toyota and a direct result of insulate leadership that clearly was out of touch with where the market was headed.
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The midsize EV has traveled long and dramatic journey. At one point or another, it was supposed to be build in Mexico, then Flat Rock, then back to Mexico, then Ohio, and BOC, and now finally confirmed in Oakville.
The MEB at Oakville plan fizzled. Originally, Corsair EV was going to be the first model in Oakville. About a year ago, I mentioned the lack of news about MEB in Oakville probably means Ford is not going thru with MEB in North America and this is the final confirmation.
I think two take aways here...
1. Ford is growing much more confident about its EV plans. Originally, they were going to parallel build Escape/Corsair in Oakville (EV) and Louisville (ICE). Now it looks like they will go cold turkey and pull the plug (bad metaphor ? ) on ICE Escape/Corsair in 2025 or so.
2. As some people rightly pointed out already, Chicago doesn't have any product other than keep building Police Interceptor beyond 2025. What we don't know is if there are any new EV CUV Ford has in the product pipeline... I guess we won't know until UAW contract negotiation is done but I think long term, Ford must have more EV CUV planned beyond Escape, Mach E, and Explorer. Ford needs an EV below Escape and an alternative to Mach E that leans more utility than sport.
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I'm sure Tesla had modeled the crash test extensively. And I'm sure it went back to the design team repeatedly.
We still haven't seen the production version of the Cyber Truck so we don't know what the final form looks like.
One of the reason VW cancelled several bus revival projects over the last 20 years was that the short hood with ICE shoved in there will not pass crash test. They were able to achieve this form factor with ID Buzz because there is no ICE in front of the front axle so in the event of a crash, there is no giant mass of metal object trying to kill the passengers.
You can think of Cyber Truck the same way... it doesn't need as much crumple zone as F-150. But the shape of the cab and the underlying safety cage design still matters.
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On 10/26/2022 at 6:05 PM, silvrsvt said:
Self driving cars are pie in the sky at this point-IMO it was just tech companies overselling what they could actually do.
There needs to be a huge infrastructure upgrade and a way of tracking everything without infringing on privacy. Both are really expensive to figures out short term.
Self-driving car is the new hydrogen... perpetually "5 years away" from commercialization. It will never happen the way it has been hyped to do. We will eventually achieve Level 4 in geofenced area but Level 5 is basically impossible. Most car companies, including Tesla's nonsensically named FSD is at Level 2. For non-geofenced application, the best we will ever do is Level 3.
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On 10/27/2022 at 9:00 AM, silvrsvt said:
Is that what they are going to call the Capri?
That's the rumor. The Sport Crossover or "coupe" version is like a bigger Puma or smaller Mach E depending on your perspective.
And the standard MEB Crossover with longer roof will probably keep the Focus name.
Personally, I think if they are going to bring back Capri for the coupe version, then the longer version should be Cortina... but that's just me.
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Replacement for Fiesta is Puma and has been that way for the last several years. Ford offered both for the last 4 years and buyers in Europe have voted with their wallets for Puma and now it is time to say goodbye to Fiesta.
Ford will build its MEB Sport Crossover (which will replace the Focus) at Cologne plant where Fiesta is manufactured now.
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On 10/19/2022 at 2:19 AM, Joe771476 said:
Interesting info, but will the electric grid be able to handle it?
That is a question we should be asking of crypto currency mining. Not electric car. This has been asked and answered a million times already. If you are still asking, it's obvious that you don't want to hear the answer.
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On 10/12/2022 at 2:52 PM, silvrsvt said:
It says its bigger then the Trailerblazer, which is roughly the size of the outgoing Ecosport.
The Trailblazer with a white top is prob the best looking Chevy product out there IMO.
Trailblazer is the size of Bronco Sport... EcoSport is substantially smaller than both Trailblazer and the outgoing original Trax ?
The new US market Trax is actually a renamed version of Chevy Seeker which replaced Trailblazer in China (3 year model cycle is the norm in China). In the US, GM is selling Trax (Seeker) with FWD only and priced below Trailblazer. Forget the SUV marketing and the faux cladding and suspension lift and focus on the MSRP which tells the whole story: It is really a replacement for Cruze in terms of size and price point.
Trax: compete with Toyota Corolla, Mazda3, Kia Forte
Trailblazer: compete with Toyota Corolla Cross, Mazda CX-30, Kia Seltos
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I really like the way this car looks (but I also own a Porsche Panamera so I'm biased towards this shape in general I guess). The blue interior is pretty awesome... blue interior in general really needs to make a comeback. It used to be quite common until beige and gray became acceptable interior colors.
There is no mistaken this thing for the anonymous EV blob that Mercedes is selling that is for sure.
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On 10/15/2022 at 4:00 AM, twintornados said:
They should create the Transit Chateau Trail...
With two-tone paint!
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Ford doesn't use any Chinese sourced battery in its PHEV or EV sold in North America.
Mach E and Escpae PHEV made in China use BYD batteries.
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Generally speaking, you don't sell your stored power back to the grid. You only sell excessive power generation from your solar panels back to the grid.
Stored power are for you to use later (time shift). You can either use it to drive to dinner, or you can use it to microwave your dinner - but you get dinner either way.
Smart metering is required to switch from grid power to stored power. 2-way metering is required for you to sell excess power back to the utility. Smart 2-way meter can do both.
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1 hour ago, akirby said:
The wall is available 100% of the time for both discharging and charging.BEV are only available some of the time based on how the owner drives and their personal preference on charging.
It's a question of investments. Not every household will invest in localized storage like Tesla wall (unless of course building code changes in the future, which it might). But almost every household in the US has at least 1 vehicle.
If you are a utility and your goal is to increase grid resiliency, you'd be crazy to not want to utilized the portable battery that is already installed at all of your residential customer meter. You do that by offering free 2-way smart meters and structure rate schemes that encourages EV to charge at only certain time of the day. Smart metering will take care of the rest.
You as a customer and decide (perhaps on your phone app that controls your home) when or if you want to use your "reserve" power.
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3 hours ago, Captainp4 said:
The Tesla roof and powerwall seem to be the way to go (or similar from other suppliers). I don't like the idea of relying on people's cars to power the grid. I'd bet there's a lot of resistance from a lot of people on it unless emergency situations. I don't like the idea of paying for a BEV for the grid to use more of my limited number of charge/discharge cycles before battery needs replaced or using up all my juice and I NEED to go somewhere immediately.That's not the idea, you are not using the car to power the grid. You are using the car to add resiliency to your house and insulate it. If you have an EV, you have a 100 kwh battery at your house. You can time shift the power consumption and draw power from it during peak demand so the grid is not overtaxed. It's exactly the same concept as grid scale storage - you charge your battery (EV) during off peak (at early afternoon or late at night) and you draw from it when needed during peak (at evening or mid morning).
But of course the ability to sell excess power back to the grid is just bonus. But generally speaking, you need solar panels to generate enough to sell back. Having battery (EV) doesn't give you enough power to sell to the grid.
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Explorer Timberline style lights in the grille
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Having 2-way meters and using all the EVs as storage is really going to add a huge amount of storage capacity to the grid for relatively little cost for the utility. They would be smart to all jump on similar programs.
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On 10/6/2022 at 9:41 AM, blwnsmoke said:
I doubt it. The Explorer Platinum and KR have the same engine too. This is a Ford Performance tune which the ST is the only Ford Performance variant.
There are many tuning option out there that will give you more safe performance then this tune if one wants.
Bronco is not a Ford Performance vehicle but it is getting the calibration tune too.
I think in theory the tune can apply to any 3.0 EB equipped Explorer and Aviator but Ford for sure will not sell it like that.
Also before anyone asks... this is not a factory option like "performance package" on the ST because Ford will have to do update the fuel consumption number of the window sticker and could impact CAFE. Easier to sell it as aftermarket add on which doesn't have any effect on the MPG on the window sticker nor the CAFE.
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Tesla opened its network to other brands in Europe because it fears EU antitrust enforecement and lawsuit. The US Govt by comparison thinks consumer protection is a nuisance so Tesla has no fear.
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Where is Ford hiding all these EcoSport? ? Production ended 6 months ago and I can't believe they are still shipping them from India. Somewhere there must be a huge stockpile of these little turds.
Maverick is such an amazing success story. And Bronco Sport too... don't forget some people here were very skeptical about that vehicle.
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22 hours ago, sullynd said:
These exist now.
Virtually all BEV/PHEV can use the same L2 connector.
There are three standards in the US for fast charging, CHAdeMO, CCS, and Tesla. CHAdeMO is deadman walking. Even Nissan, who holds the patents for it, has abandoned it. Electrify America has a CHAdeMO handle at most of their locations (the rest being CCS). Tesla has said they will eventually add CCS. EvGo already has chargers that support all three.
The “OMG Different Standards” BS is really just FUD spread by people who don’t know the first thing about EVs.
The different charger thing is FUD for sure. You can charge Tesla with CCS Type 1 charger - you just need an adopter, which comes with the car. If you have a home charger, you can charge any kind of EV without issue. The problem is usually with the public charging network because they are trying to charge you money for using it (I will explain some more below).
To put it in terms that people can understand, Tesla charger is like Apple Lightning and CCS is like USB C (I guess CHAdeMo would be USB A in this scenario). You can still charge your phone with either charger as long as you have a lightning to USB adapter. In fact, outside the US, Tesla just like Apple generally doesn't use its own charger because local laws usually require compliance with standard charger (e.g. Tesla use CCS Type 2 in Europe and most of Asia, and in China it uses the Chinese standard). Apple and Tesla only impose a different charger to the American consumer because our general weak consumer protection laws and regulatory indifference. Apple's Lightning plugs imposes a hurdle to prevent people from switching brands (you have to re-purchase all the chargers). Tesla's non-standard charger is the same thing.
Also important to understand the difference between Tesla's charger and Tesla's charging network. They are not tied together as I already mentioned - in other countries, Tesla's network doesn't use its charger. Tesla's charging network is closed to other brands by choice both in the US and in other countries, it's not because the charger is different. They just don't want to deal with the software integration work required by SAE CCS standards. A lot of the unreliability in non-Tesla charging networks are software related because the network is trying to charge you for using it. It's hard to make everything work when there are 15 brands and all of them are constantly updating the firmware. Tesla network's seeming reliablity is due to its simplicity - only 1 brand to interface and the firmware for the car, the phone app, and charging network always match. If Tesla opens its network to other brands, it will suffer the same kind of unreliable service when firmware version have mismatch. But this is why Tesla will never open its network despite Elon saying otherwise. It's too much of a competitive advantage.
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Rivian Amazon EV Delivery Van Shown
in Competing Products
Posted · Edited by bzcat
Rivian Amazon van and Brightdrop FedEx vans are both familiar sights now in my neighborhood. I've also seen a few Transit EV as well.