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GearheadGrrrl

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Posts posted by GearheadGrrrl

  1. What we're seeing is Ford retreating to a high volume North American product, and a case can be made that Ford could survive at half it's current size on the F series alone. But that leaves the problem of half of Ford and it's employees with nothing to do with only F series around. 

     

    It gets worse... What happens when the trend to smaller garages and high prices cuts F series sales in half and Ford hasn't kept the Ranger competitive with Tacoma et al...

  2. But surely the Ecoboost isn't competitive in motorsports?

     

    Actually in amateur motorsports like autocross, track days, etc. the Ecoboost slots into a "slower" class so it's just as competitive, and for track days nobody's racing anyway. The Ecoboost driver saves $10-20K in initial purchase price, needs a third less gas to get to the track, work, etc.. and the lighter "less" powerful Ecoboost is easier on tires. Throw in the Ecoboost's trailer towing ability and Ford's willingness to warranty it as long as you keep the engine stock and it's a worthy competitor for the Miata, Toyburu "twins", and GTI!

  3. Your data is near useless, as for the vast majority of electric vehicles we don't have even 10 years of failure history. Nor does it necessarily apply to my tougher than normal use case, which would require a lot of battery abusing fast charging to above 80% of capacity and draining below 20%. Given that the failure rates and repair costs of IC vehicles are well established but EV's are still largely unknown, it would be foolish of me to bet $30K or more on an EV when IC cars that do a better job are available for less.

     

    There is also the issue of parts availability- For example Focus EV batteries are NLA and Volt parts are becoming NLA.

  4. I've done the numbers and for me the price of a new EV would have to come down to about $10K after rebates to match the costs of my IC cars. Battery replacement is a big issue- I keep my vehicles 20+ years while many EVs will be junk at half that due to the cost of battery replacement. No surprise that the fleets are agreeing with me- The costs of relying on Tesla's captive service operation would sour any fleet on EVs and the resale is a potential bankruptcy for a rental/leasing fleet.

  5. As long as EVs remain a niche market, North American demand for dedicated EVs alone is too small to turn a profit. That means future Ford EVs will have to be competitive in Worldwide markets where the best selling vehicles are 4 to 5 meters long. Thus the business case for Explorer and larger EVs is a weak one, and a shorter more aero front end will allow 3 row seating in a less than 5 meter "world size" EV and save a couple thousand dollars, euros, or whatever in battery costs. 

  6. 26 minutes ago, akirby said:


    But from a factory perspective and a corporate resource perspective - Bronco and Ranger did replace Focus just like Mav and BS replaced Fusion.  It’s all about budgets and projects not the products themselves.

     

    Think of it as having a fixed amount of shelf space in the grocery store.  You have room for 10 products.  If you want to add a new product you have to get rid of an existing one or you have to expand the store.  They didn’t want to build a new factory so they replaced existing products.  

    Thanks for the bread analogy, Hostess/Wonder AKA Continental Baking tried many of Ford's current strategies- Closing bakeries, pushing higher priced breads, and selling private label breads at a loss in hopes the volume would save them. The super markets and convenience stores were their "dealers" and in the old days they nurtured good relationships with them. While the products weren't the tastiest, they had predictable quality that consumers could depend on until management took the smaller retailers for granted and romanced Walmart. After turning profits all through the depression and for decades beyond, they used the 1st bankruptcy in 2004 to gut union contracts and letting Walmart get away with several months of unpaid bills for bread and cake delivered forced their final bankruptcy in 2012.

     

    Ford and to be fair, GM too have been exhibiting similar maladaptive behavior the last few years- Betting too much on electrification with no hedging, pushing high profit but short lived products like Bronco, and raising prices beyond customer's affordability. Meanwhile, reliably profitable lower priced products like sedans/wagons/hatches have been dropped despite having excess plant capacity to build them.

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