mackinaw
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Posts posted by mackinaw
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"ICE Elongation Thesis." Only a Wall Street analyst could come up with something like that. And talk about Adam Jonas pivoting 180. Five years ago, he was the guy who was predicting that EV adoption would happen quickly and dramatically, like dominos falling over. Marketplace reality, as usual, had other ideas.
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1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:
So the limit for the e-cvt is around 300 lb ft and 400 hp, interesting.
From memory, the Ford Five Hundred (circa 2005) had a CVT transmission mated to the 3.0L V6 in the AWD models. I remember reading that it was a "high torque" CVT. It was expensive to produce, so was dropped in favor of a more conventional auto tranny at some point.
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31 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:
It would be like Ford using the Philco (which was a name for Ford branded electronics and appliances from the 1960s) name on its EVs
We had an old Philco tube TV in our attic until a few years ago.
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2 hours ago, Rick73 said:
Reports indicate R2 won’t be available until first half of 2026, which is two years away. R3 will likely follow by another year. If Rivian only has 18 months of money left, they will be hurting unless they secure additional funding.
I was reading elsewhere this afternoon that one reason Rivian delayed their planned Georgia plant was because it save them 2.25 billion dollars, which will buy them one more year.
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1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:
Quite a few brands have followed Ford's lead of killing off their passenger cars all together, or reducing investment in them in favor of developing more utilities. Ford beat most of their rivals to the punch, but years on, we're beginning to see a greater number of lifestyle oriented utilities going on sale.......
You have to give Sergio credit for that. Fiat Chrysler stopped selling compact and mid-size sedans back in 2016. Ford followed suit in 2019.
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19 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said:
But getting married and having kids is rapidly becoming a thing of the past, at least among American youth. Marriage and child birth rates are dropping like a stone, especially amongst younger people. So there's becoming less and less of a need for something with more utility. When you don't need the space of an SUV, and prefer the looks of a sedan or coupe, many people will stick with sedans or coupes....
But there were still over 3,600,00 births in the US last year. That's a lot of babies.
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Anybody know how many of Borg's predictions over the past five years have actually come true?
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Not surprised. Look for Ford, and others, to hire some of the engineers who were working on this car.
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2 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:
It seems like they're pushing for a 25-30k price point on those EVs. That's insane, I don't know how they're gonna pull it off.
A $25,000 BEV is now the price of admission into the EV game. There was an excellent article in the Detroit News on this topic that , unfortunately, is behind a paywall. Luckily, I subscribe. Some quotes: "As a result, a profitable $25,000 EV has become a golden egg in the industry. Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk says the Texas-based company will have an EV at that price point soon. Tavares points to the slim-margin Citroën ë-C3, a hatchback built in Slovakia from the French brand not sold in the United States whose mid trim is about $25,000 (23,300 euro), as an achievement. And Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Farley says the Dearborn automaker is working as quickly as possible to bring a new low-cost EV platform to market that could support a vehicle priced as low as $25,000."
"To get mainstream customers interested, the $25,000 price tag is a good target, experts say, and it can be attainable. “The question is for a first-generation $25,000 EV for the U.S. market: What compromises will they have to make?” said Sam Abuelsamid, principal e-mobility analyst at market research firm Guidehouse Inc. “How much range will they have to give up to get to that $25,000, or what features will they have to give up?"
"Given such few $25,000 options even among traditional vehicles, the question then arises if there is a market for affordable EVs. Colin Langan, analyst at Wells Fargo & Co., recently questioned whether one exists beyond an alternative for buyers in the used market. “New car buyers usually buy for the status of it,” he said last month during the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Automotive Insights Symposium. “To get the price point low, you need a really small battery and less weight, and I just don't know that the market is there. It doesn't mean there's not a huge market in China, or there's not a market in Europe. But to do a $25,000 vehicle, it needs to be right now very small." As a result, executives and experts say to have a slate of desirable and affordable EVs, there need to be changes in the supply chain, advances in manufacturing processes and developments in battery technology such as with cheaper materials."
Much more here, if you subscribe: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2024/02/21/affordability-auto-industry-25000-dollar-ev/72574561007/
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35 minutes ago, akirby said:
Has the 2024 F150 not reached ok to buy yet?
All this Detroit News article says is that they are now being shipped to dealers.
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1 hour ago, Deanh said:
heres the kicker....they havent produced anything barring ONE vehicle yet , and not gung ho by any account...so, by my books thats a potential loss savings of approx 30k per unit....at least right now. If I was them Id definitely be apprehensive...and I think the very reason they DID invest in that plant was pressure from Stockholders no? ( correct me if Im wrong ) ....the stockholders most likely read all the hype as well and bought into it....thank GOD Ford still has their ICE vehcles as a foundation....
The pressure came from the investment community. Five years ago, influential Wall Street analysts, like Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley), predicted the EV wave would be like a tsunami. He was predicting mass adoption of EV's in a matter of a few years. If your company wasn't seen as investing in EV's, then it had no future. So, fearful that they would lose investors, every manufacturer fell in line and developed EV's. Fast forward to 2024, and the mass adoption of EV's is moving at a much slower rate than anyone expected (outside of Akio Toyoda). As is always the case, the marketplace has the final word.
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15 minutes ago, Deanh said:
...potential losses at Lease end and apparently a $30000 loss per unit.....
Misery loves company? Rivian just announced they've lost $43,000/vehicle from October-December of last year.
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That was a very interesting read. Sounds like batteries are very difficult to manufacture, especially in volume. And GM kind of shot themselves in the foot by not hiring new engineers who understand this new technology. I see GM just hired a Tesla battery engineer to right the ship. He's got his work cut out for him.
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2 hours ago, Dequindre said:
Stellantis is looking pretty good right now for developing a vehicle architecture that can accommodate EV, PHEV, and ICE powertrains,......
Which will end up being one gigantic compromise. EV's and ICE are just too different to think that one generic platform can do each drivetrain justice.
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1 hour ago, Bob Rosadini said:
Ok, hopefully that is what he ment..although Fuzzy isnt so sure of that...
Ford went from 202,000 employees in 2017 to 173,000 employees in 2022. They added 4,000 employees in 2023.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/number-of-employees
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49 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:
" It’s not just getting rid of people – we’ve got rid of 20,000 people "–
What does Farley mean by this?
I took it to mean they've eliminated layers of useless bureaucracy.
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From the Detroit News:
Bill Ford Jr., executive chairman of Ford Motor Co., will be inducted into the Automotive Hall of Fame in September alongside six other industry veterans, the Dearborn nonprofit said Friday. Ford is the great-grandson of Henry Ford, who founded the Dearborn automaker 120 years ago. Since becoming executive chairman a quarter of a century ago, Ford has overseen the company through tumultuous periods in the industry from when it staved off bankruptcy during the Great Recession to the ongoing historic transformation toward zero-tailpipe-emission vehicles. Ford offers a "values-driven approach that demonstrates corporate responsibility and success can go hand in hand," according to a news release. "He was an early and influential advocate for sustainability and environmental responsibility, a driving force behind mobility innovation, and continues to be a champion for the revitalization of the Motor City."
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And now we have this: "UAW threatens new strike at Ford's Kentucky Truck Plant if local contract isn't resolved"
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I thought stainless steel didn't rust. Apparently I'm wrong.
https://jalopnik.com/why-tesla-cybertrucks-are-rusting-despite-being-made-of-1851257091
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Shawn Fain's response:
"UAW President Shawn Fain slams Ford CEO's comments on 'manufacturing footprint"
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From today's Detroit News. The recent UAW strike has changed things.
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Very interesting article in the Detroit News. Ford Model E COO, Marin Gjaja, recently spoke at a panel discussing disruptive technology. He also mentions that the target price for the new Ford low cost EV line to be about $25,000-$30,000.
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Suicide and gullwing doors? Yeah, right. Very little of what you see in this concept will see production. It's a nice design exercise though.
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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:
.....What it boils down to is they are talking out of both sides of their mouth and anti EV people are playing up their actions. Check the agendas....
Sure they're talking out both sides of their mouth, but Toyota Board Chair, Akio Toyoda, remains quite skeptical about EV's. He sees EV adoption rate peaking at 30% with the remainder being split between hybrids and hydrogen powered vehicles.
Wells Fargo analyst: "Tesla is a now a growth company with no growth"
in E.V. Central
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Nope, I don't cut Wall Street any slack over their over-optimistic EV predictions. There's no way a bunch of NYC-based eggheads have any clue about what is actually happening in the world. And Jonas was the worst of them. I'm really enjoying seeing him backtrack now.