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I don't think manufacturing ~600K cars WW is cheerleading when Tesla has stated they have more demand than they can produce. Tesla runs the Freemont factory 6 weeks out the quarter for Europe and 6 weeks for North America. Tesla sold 95K+ Model 3's in Europe in 2019 and has sold out of Model 3s in both Germany and the UK in Q1 2020. Tesla will produce 25K more cars in Fremont in Q12020 than they did in Q12019 and since China is now producing (reopened after Coronavirus) ~12K Model 3s per Q, Tesla will not be shipping 10K model 3s to China in Q12020. Those 3's will go to Europe. The Berlin gigafactory will not start delivering cars until, at the earliest, July 2021. Tesla grew sales by 50% in 2019 and selling 500K in 2020 would only be a growth of 36% over 2019 which should be a lot higher since the Model 3 is ramping up in China and the Model Y will be introduced in March 2020.

Now that the Model Y is being launched this month lets take a look at the SUV market. Between 2017-2018 7 out of the top 10 selling SUVs in the US gained sales. From 2018-2019 only 5 gained sales. During that time period, 9 out of the top-selling sedans lost market share most likely due toTesla selling over 250K Model 3's. Is this a predictor of things to come with the Model Y? Most of Model 3 owners are never buying an ICE vehicle ever again. Today the number of people who have experienced a Tesla is not 250K+ but their family members, friends, relatives work associates so probably between 1-2MM people are familiar with a Tesla. Every Tesla Model Y reservation holder and those who know that the Model Y will be their next vehicle takes away from a sale that would have been an ICE SUV. So here is a forecast for 2020 with Tesla all out of the Fremont factory. Keep in mind that Fremont is building for Europe until the Berlin gigafactory opens, so regardless of the demand Fremont is limited beyond a certain point. Best guess is 600-650K total out of Fremont. Model X and S - Sales USA and Europe between 65K and 75K Model 3 - Sales US and Europe 365K to 400K Model Y - 50K-150K 90% USA sales Semi - 175-500 units

With 500K+ reservations for the Cybertruck, IMO, it would be a tremendous, no disastrous risk to any pick-up manufacturer to think all those reservations for the Cybertruck are from people who have never owned a pick-up truck and will be buying one for the first time.

The model x is a luxury SUV and costs ~$100K. The Model Y is the SUV Tesla is using to declare war on the mid-size SUV segment.

I hope Ford shares your opinion.

Ford is out of the sedan market, so they had nothing to lose with the Model 3 sales, however, with the Model Y launching this month, Ford stands to lose sales in the mid-size SUV market. Too early to forecast anything regarding the truck market other than to say every sale of an EV truck will be at the expense of an ICE truck.

Tesla has declared war on the SUV market and if the Model Y (scheduled to launch mid-March 2020) does as well as the Model 3, the entire mid-size SUV market will have a new dominant player. I do not see anything on the near horizon that will compete with the Model Y in 2020. There is no doubt that Tesla will sell more Model Y's in the 12 months from the launch date than they sold Model 3's in 2019. That should shake up the mid-size SUV market. We will address the EV truck market in 2021, but just from the 500K+ reservations, Tesla will be successful with the Cybertruck and each Cybertruck sale will cannibalize an ICE truck sale.

The actual sales of just the Tesla Model 3 in CA in 2019 were greater than any other car/truck except the Honda Civic and the Toyota Camry. More than the Honda Accord, more than the Ford F-150 and more than the Toyota Corolla. CA is the largest vehicle market in the USA. 2020 buyers of Teslas whether S, X, 3 or the Y will doing so without a federal tax credit.

CA tends to be quicker than most other states for several reasons. Geographically CA is close to innovation and innovation centers as in Silicon Valley where you have lots of tech companies and innovators. In CA there is more openness toward technology and more optimism toward what technology has to offer not only personally but society at large. Looking at CA can give you a look at what kind of trends might spread to other regions of the US and globally.

In CA, the largest vehicle market in the US, in 2019 the Model 3 outsold the Ford F-150 and outsold the Ford Explorer by a factor of 3.5 (59514 to 16159). The Model 3 was the third best selling vehicle in CA in 2019. This is just a sign of what is happening ultimately in the bigger picture. We are witnessing a transitioning from ICE to electric and while it is not going to happen overnight, it is happening.

With the launch of the Model Y, Tesla has declared war on the ICE SUV market. I do not expect a rapid and equal response from the current ICE SUV manufacturers because who wants to declare war against themselves or who wants to decimate their most profitable products.

The Model 3 outsold both the Toyota Corolla and Honda Accord and every truck model in CA in 2019. https://www.youtube.com/redirect?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cncda.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FCal-Covering-4Q-19.pdf&event=video_description&v=jCVfxxXWPH8&redir_token=JywPbkmiuOkO7favufTD-LVyTK18MTU4MzA5ODE3NEAxNTgzMDExNzc0

IMO, if you do not build your own, you will be dependent on a supply chain that you do not control. MB had to delay their EV.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-y-delivery-range-features-price/ First to market in an 8MM SUV crossover market. http://carsalesbase.com/category/car-sales-us/ Will the Model Y do to the crossover market what the Model 3 did to the sedan market?

Each of those 20+MM EV sold in 2030 will be a direct replacement for and ICE vehicle. Ford is out of the sedan business. Currently, Tesla has over 500,000 reservations (pay $100) just for the Cybertruck and it is not scheduled to be released until 2021. Pre-orders for the Model Y are unknown or untracked. Ford plans to build 50K Mustang Mach E's by the end of 2021. Either Ford is consciously deciding not to be a major player in the EV market, they are just going to dip their toe in the market and take a wait and see position or they do not believe the future of EVs is as bright as being reported. I suspect the reason Ford did not go with an EV pick-up first is they did not want to cannibalize their existing market. With 3+MM pick-ups sold in the US alone Ford could have increased their hold on the pick-up market by being first with an EV like the Cybertruck. https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/how-to-tell-your-place-in-line-based-on-cybertruck-preorder-reservation-number.251/

The global unit sales market for EVs in 2030 is forecasted to be at least 20 million vehicles per year and most if not all those sales are going to cannibalize the ICE vehicles. To scale up production to meet that demand requires billions in new investments and billions in write-downs of existing ICE manufacturing. If Ford decides to be a player in this market, they will be losing revenue with decreased ICE vehicles and parts sales at the same time they are making the huge investments required to retool and scale-up the production to produce mass-market volumes of EVs. IMO, this will be a one-two knock-out punch for Ford if they decide to manufacture truly competitive EVs on a mass-market scale. If the analysts believed in Hackett after 2+ years at the helm the stock would not be under $8.

The global unit sales market for EVs in 2030 is forecasted to be at least 20 million vehicles per year and most if not all those sales are going to cannibalize the ICE vehicles. To scale up production to meet that demand requires billions in new investments and billions in write-downs of existing ICE manufacturing. If Ford decides to be a player in this market they will be losing revenue with decreased ICE and parts sales at the same time they are making huge investments required to retool and scale-up the production to produce mass-market volumes of EVs. IMO, this will be a one-two knock-out punch for Ford if they decide to manufacture truly competitive EVs on a mass-market scale. If the analysts believed in Hackett after 2+ years at the helm the stock would not be under $8.

The market has more confidence in Musk than Hackett So, are you confident that a retired CEO from an office furniture manufacturer where he spent 30 years understands the disruptive innovation taking place in the auto industry and is positioning F to be a winner? There are some doubters out there. 2.24.2020 - Detroit Free Press "Ford is facing tremendous downside market and financial risk on so many fronts," he said. "Its restructuring plans have not yielded the benefits as soon as promised and expected, and may never do so. Its European and South American operations are perennial losers and have not improved. And its China business has gone from too late of an entry with too little market share, to less than half of that. The only strong business that Ford has is North America, and even then it is only in the U.S. and Canada since its Mexico presence has fallen to near irrelevancy."

Are you confident that a retired CEO from an office furniture manufacturer where he spent 30 years understands the disruptive innovation taking place in the auto industry and is positioning F to be a winner? There are some doubters out there. 2.24.2020 - Detroit Free Press "Ford is facing tremendous downside market and financial risk on so many fronts," he said. "Its restructuring plans have not yielded the benefits as soon as promised and expected, and may never do so. Its European and South American operations are perennial losers and have not improved. And its China business has gone from too late of an entry with too little market share, to less than half of that. The only strong business that Ford has is North America, and even then it is only in the U.S. and Canada since its Mexico presence has fallen to near irrelevancy." https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2020/02/24/ford-stock-ceo-jim-hackett/4821205002/

"Ford is facing tremendous downside market and financial risk on so many fronts," he said. "Its restructuring plans have not yielded the benefits as soon as promised and expected, and may never do so. Its European and South American operations are perennial losers and have not improved. And its China business has gone from too late of an entry with too little market share, to less than half of that. The only strong business that Ford has is North America, and even then it is only in U.S. and Canada since its Mexico presence has fallen to near irrelevancy." 2.24.2020 - DFP https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2020/02/24/ford-stock-ceo-jim-hackett/4821205002/

This is from the PR in Dec 2019. "In 2020, Ford will debut the all-new F-150 and F-150 hybrid. The fully electric Ford F-150 is coming soon after and will be part of the company’s more than $11.5 billion global electrified vehicle investment. Dearborn Truck Plant will build these Ford F-150s, part of Ford F-Series, America’s best-selling truck for 42 straight years." Is there another PR that states the BEV will be available in 2021?

The global unit sales market for EVs in 2030 is estimated to be at least 20 million vehicles per year. By the end of 2021, Tesla will have 5 gigafactories open expressly for the manufacture of EVs and batteries. Going forward from today, IMO, what is best for Ford in the EV market is not what is best for their dealerships and it is obvious. By 2030 EVs not only will have made gas cars partially obsolete but also dealer sales, and service to a large extent. Ford knows this and is probably wrestling with this issue as well as write-offs of their existing ICE car manufacturing equipment while at the same time incurring huge investment costs required to retool and scale-up the production to produce mass-market EVs.

Wonder whatever/will happened/happen to Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson, Blackberry, PDAs, MP3 players, regular wristwatches, handheld video games, and point and shoot cameras after the introduction of the iPhone/iWatch? I am an observer of disruptive innovation and Tesla is the iPhone in the legacy automaker market. By the end of 2021, Tesla will have 5 gigafactories ( #1 opened in July of 2016) in operation around the world. Ford is building its Mustang Mach E in a 56-year-old factory in Mexico and plans to produce 50K Mustang Mach E's by the end of 2021.

I wonder if that will be the case in 2025?

By the time Ford manufactures its 50,000th Mustang Mach E, Tesla will have opened two more Gigafactories. One in Texas and one in Germany, both capable of manufacturing hundreds of thousands of cars a year. Tesla is building the Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and Model S in the USA. Ford is building the Mustang Mach E in a 56-year-old plant in Mexico which sure takes the American out of American made.