Some Political Guts in Ottawa

[30 OTT 6]

In Canada, our Finance Minister recently anounced that earlier anounced budget deficit projections are low. Minister Jim Flaherty issued updated figures and I applaud him for it. This is true transparency and he is being raked over the coals for it by the opposition parties. This is not a Liberal vs. Conservative issue because I know that it doesn't matter who is in opposition, the same b.s. occurs. This is a case study in the stupidity of polictics.

 

The opposition parties are flying off the handle saying that the $50 Billion deficit is the worst in Canadian history. In magnitude, they are correct. In reality, a $50 Billion in Canada today is not even close to being the worst. The worst occurred in the 1990's under the previous Conservative government after years of deficit spending by Liberal and Conservitive controllers. Canada's economy has grown so much that the 50 Billion dollar deficit represents approximately 30% of our GDP. In the early 1990's, it was over 70% of GDP. Compared to the rest of the world, Canada is in decent financial condition.

[suv_guy_19]

I'm glad we're doing so good overall (though I hope we can get out of deficit within the 5 - 6 year period), but I hope this experience was humbling for the Conservatives. In the past, they always talked about the inability of the Liberal party to predict the size of the surplus. Now that they have been having so much trouble predicing the end of year figures, both surplus and deficit, maybe they see that predicting the economy isn't easy.

[matthewq4b]

I'm glad we're doing so good overall (though I hope we can get out of deficit within the 5 - 6 year period), but I hope this experience was humbling for the Conservatives. In the past, they always talked about the inability of the Liberal party to predict the size of the surplus. Now that they have been having so much trouble predicing the end of year figures, both surplus and deficit, maybe they see that predicting the economy isn't easy.

 

 

Just rember SUV it was Dion and layton that were pushing for the stimulous packages Harper and and his conservaties were not going to introduce one until it was relaized that failure to do so would have proboly meant the Libs NDP and the Bloc would have toppled him. And done the same damn thing plus tacked on more taxes.

 

The bulk of the deficit lays directly at the feet of the opposition parties.

 

Matthew

[Trimdingman]

If the Liberals were in power, they would be in lock step with Obama. We would be looking at a 9 figure deficit. Mulroney ran deficits of over 40 billion, if I remember correctly. They were necessary to turn the ship back in the right direction after Trudeau steered it way off course. I remember a speech Trudeau made about steering us to a different port, or something. He was obviously talking about socialism. He was ahead of his time all right. We are headed for socialism now, and the Conservatives are the only ones who will fight against it.

[suv_guy_19]

The bulk of the deficit lays directly at the feet of the opposition parties.

 

In January, there would have been no coalition, so the Conservatives really could have put whatever they wanted in the budget, and the Liberals would have passed it, but that's beside the point.

 

What I was talking about was the January prediction of a $34B deficit that grew to $50B. I'm talking about the difficulty in predicting end of year results that the Conservatives are having. It's the same difficulty that the Liberals used to have and that the Conservatives used to attack them for. In those years, the economy's quick growth was unpredictable, while now, it's quick decline is unpredictable.

 

In Q1, our economy actually shrunk faster than the US economy because we're facing a perfect storm outside of two, maybe three provinces. I hope that trend doesn't last long.

[matthewq4b]

In January, there would have been no coalition, so the Conservatives really could have put whatever they wanted in the budget, and the Liberals would have passed it, but that's beside the point.

 

Not quite. It was made perfectly clear that if Harpers Conservaties did not come up with a big dollars stimulous package then they would be toppled. How quickly we forget.

 

 

What I was talking about was the January prediction of a $34B deficit that grew to $50B. I'm talking about the difficulty in predicting end of year results that the Conservatives are having. It's the same difficulty that the Liberals used to have and that the Conservatives used to attack them for. In those years, the economy's quick growth was unpredictable, while now, it's quick decline is unpredictable.

 

Well no kidding there would be unpredictabilty in the deficit as things were changing faster than any one could do the calculations.

 

 

In Q1, our economy actually shrunk faster than the US economy because we're facing a perfect storm outside of two, maybe three provinces. I hope that trend doesn't last long.

 

Not really. Western Canada B.C Alberta Sask Manitoba The Yukon NWT and Nunavit is and has stabilized. Some places like Sask never even slowed. Alberta is already rebounding. We are calling it the 90 day ressesion. The Oil Sands are back on track Esso Annouced that the 8 billion dollar Kearl project is moving forward. And a host of other stuff is remping back up. We are seeing things step back up. For us it was a market correction more than anything else companys were able to shed the warm bodies they had hired just to fill a space and we sent back almost all the forgein and temp workers plus Construction prices fell back to rates that were more realistic. Heck the big guys halted projects to drive the rates down this was being done even before the resession official started.

B.C is going strong as is Sask and Manitoba is slowly getting back in step. The territories did not slow at all.

 

It is Ontario that got hit the worst. And since they are the center of universe as far as Canada is concerned the Canadian Economic barometer for the media tends reflect that. But they were in a mess before this Economic slump happened, it just compounded the exsisting problem. Ontario is not going to be in kind of stable economic shape for the foreseeable future. The province is in a state of change and it is going to be long road to recovery.

 

All oin all most of Canada is doing just fine. Now if we can get the banks to free up some capital lending things will be right back where they were 18 months ago in a couple short months.

 

 

Matthew

[suv_guy_19]

Not quite. It was made perfectly clear that if Harpers Conservaties did not come up with a big dollars stimulous package then they would be toppled. How quickly we forget.

 

Toppled, yes, but Ignatieff had no intention of forming a coalition....he had no where to go but up in any election. They had also agreed to come up with stimulus at the G20 in November, but it seemed they weren't going to follow though. Either way, we would have had a deficit. It would have been smaller without stimulus, but economists estimate that we would have been about $25B without the package.

 

Well no kidding there would be unpredictability in the deficit as things were changing faster than any one could do the calculations.

 

Yes, and before, the same thing was happening in reverse. I'm not saying that anyone else could have predicted it better, but I think this may be a lesson...I hope.

 

Manitoba is slowly getting back in step.

 

We actually never got out of step. Some mining shut down in the north, but Winnipeg was barely affected.

[suv_guy_19]

I take that back about the economic shrinking. Revised figures show we actually shrunk by a hair less than the US, at 5.4%.

[matthewq4b]

Yes, and before, the same thing was happening in reverse. I'm not saying that anyone else could have predicted it better, but I think this may be a lesson...I hope.

 

 

Not quite the growth was steady and consistant it did not just got from zero to full speed over night. The slowdown was very gradual for about 5 months then it fell off a cliff.

 

Prior to that the only provioce that was ramaping up at full speed was Alberta and we account for about 10% of the nations population. And when the Libs were in power the price of oil and other base respourses was very gradually increasing not like what happend after Harper took power.

 

The Liberals either purposly understated the surpluses or had no clue to what was really going on.

 

Matthew

[suv_guy_19]

Prior to that the only provioce that was ramaping up at full speed was Alberta and we account for about 10% of the nations population.

 

 

Yeah, it's funny, until 2006, Ontario was the fastest growing economy by a long shot (over 7% a year) and Alberta was second at about 4.5% a year (according to Statistics Canada). Quebec and British Columbia were also growing (at about 3% and 4% a year). When the american economy slowed, the groth in Ontario simply died. The effect was delayed in the other 3 large provinces, but eventually they ended up feeling it to. The slowdown was someone tempered by the fact that during the downturn n Ontario, the economies in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador were jsut starting to speed up to about 4 - 5% growth.

 

Right now, Sasktachewan has not slowed much, and Manitoba has slowed a bit, but is now starting to resume growth (though we never felt anything at all in Winnipeg, it was the north that got hit), and Alberta and BC should soon turn around. Newfoundland also felt a bit of a blip, but is doing better now.

 

I compiled the numbers of the provincial GDPs per capita, and the results were interesing. In 2008, Alberta had a per capita GDP of over 81,000 per person, Saskatchewan 64,000 and N + L was at 63,000. What was really interesting was the fact that Ontario, though the still put out a great deal of money because of theri size (about 22B this year in taxes over federal services...Alberta will put out about 18B...those number according to the Ontario and Alberta governments), is only at 43,500, about the same range as BC (slightly higher) and Manitoba (slightly lower). As usual, the 3 maritime provinces and Quebec (though, despite this, it still only gets half as much equalization per capita as Manitoba) are left with GDPs of less than 40,000. Perhaps the most amazing fact that I discovered though, was how large the economy in NWT is. At almost 130,000 per person, it has the largest per capita economy of any jusridiction in the world. The other territores are in the 50 - 80,000 range.

 

Just some interesting things that I discovered.

[suv_guy_19]

The Liberals either purposly understated the surpluses or had no clue to what was really going on.

 

 

I think it was partly because they wanted to understate it, but part of it was as a result of the fact that the economy kept gorwing so much faster than any economists could have imagined.

[417strokers]

Maybe you should get your figures straight When Paul Marten turned over power to the useless that is spending money like he is Santa clause! Canada was in better shape than it had been in 100 years . Canada would have been in a lot worse shape if it wasn't for Paul Marten having a surplus for harper to waste .lying Brian Milroney put us in worse financial shape than any Prime Minister in the history of Canada.

Edited June 8, 2009 by 417strokers

[suv_guy_19]

Well, Brian and Mulroney both had a hand in the debt, but if not for Chretien and Martin, we might have been growing that debt for the last 10 years rather than shrinking it.

Edited June 8, 2009 by suv_guy_19

[Monkey]

Not really. Western Canada B.C Alberta Sask Manitoba The Yukon NWT and Nunavit is and has stabilized. Some places like Sask never even slowed. Alberta is already rebounding. We are calling it the 90 day ressesion. The Oil Sands are back on track Esso Annouced that the 8 billion dollar Kearl project is moving forward. And a host of other stuff is remping back up. We are seeing things step back up. For us it was a market correction more than anything else companys were able to shed the warm bodies they had hired just to fill a space and we sent back almost all the forgein and temp workers plus Construction prices fell back to rates that were more realistic. Heck the big guys halted projects to drive the rates down this was being done even before the resession official started.

B.C is going strong as is Sask and Manitoba is slowly getting back in step. The territories did not slow at all.

 

It is Ontario that got hit the worst. And since they are the center of universe as far as Canada is concerned the Canadian Economic barometer for the media tends reflect that. But they were in a mess before this Economic slump happened, it just compounded the exsisting problem. Ontario is not going to be in kind of stable economic shape for the foreseeable future. The province is in a state of change and it is going to be long road to recovery.

 

All oin all most of Canada is doing just fine. Now if we can get the banks to free up some capital lending things will be right back where they were 18 months ago in a couple short months.

 

 

Matthew

Before you start saying Kearl lake is a good thing for Alberta you should read this report from the AFL, there will not be any upgrading of the bitumen done here. That means lost jobs lost royalties and with trade agreements lost control of our resources. U.S refineries are making plans to upgrade and refine our resources and control the distribution and pricing of the finished product, and Premier Stelmach went down there to thank them for it, if we don't do something now to limit the export of our raw resources us and future generations are screwed!!!!! Check out the report here

www.afl.org/upload/LostDownPipelineRevised.pdf and then sign the online petition here

www.afl.org/subscribe2.html

Steve

[matthewq4b]

Before you start saying Kearl lake is a good thing for Alberta you should read this report from the AFL, there will not be any upgrading of the bitumen done here. That means lost jobs lost royalties and with trade agreements lost control of our resources. U.S refineries are making plans to upgrade and refine our resources and control the distribution and pricing of the finished product, and Premier Stelmach went down there to thank them for it, if we don't do something now to limit the export of our raw resources us and future generations are screwed!!!!! Check out the report here

www.afl.org/upload/LostDownPipelineRevised.pdf and then sign the online petition here

www.afl.org/subscribe2.html

Steve

 

 

Oh get real already.

 

The AFL is looking out for Union Construction jobs while selling it's members down the river.

Trust me I know I have been a IBEW LU 424 member for almost 20 years now.

The unions screwed themselves well more specifically the pipe fitters screwed everybody in 98.

Nor did the Unions or the AFL put heat on the province when it was needed. They were too busy squabbling amoungst themselves.

 

 

Any investment is good investment. And Alberta is already getting big heat over the CO2 produced from the upgrading process. We emit more CO2 than any other province in the country in fact we are responsible for nearly half of Canada's CO2 Emissions alone.

 

 

I do not agree with shipping raw bitumen south. But We do not have the refining capacity to match our bitumen production. We are becoming an oil producing nation. The UAE Saudi Norway or any of the north Sea producers do not insist on refining and upgrading their product before shipping.

 

The oil sands have not collapsed NO PLANED MAJOR PROJECTS HAVE BEEN CANCELED they have been postponed. The Husky expansion was moved to the recently purchased lima refinery in the states to expedite it's updating the lloyd expansion is still a go just for the next decade. The heartland facility is waiting for other projects to complete and for better clarification on our CO2 program. It is in fact ground breaking ground as we speak but on a much slower construction schedule. The Peace blue sky project was questionable to it's economic viability from day one. we have lost less than 10% of the planned upgrading capacity due to this economic slowdown. The bigger question is what are the feds going to do in regards to CO2 emissions that is what will kill it. Not weather we will ship raw bitumen south.

And to be quite frank the Americans do not have the experience nor the technology to compete with us on cost throughput basis.

 

The AFL is worried that construction prices will fall which they have and needed to it was not sustainable at the previous level and they will not wield the clout. Which is unfortunate but they screwed themselves the dumb asses.

 

Things have slowed for several reasons.

 

Reason one,is waiting for construction prices to drop from the stratosphere construction prices for many segments have dropped by 75%. Reason 2 to better plan the construction schedules so we are not importing off shore labour. 3 waiting to see what the out come of the planned cap and trade or CO2 limit program is.

 

We are also shipping more bitumen south to appease the dirty crude crowd currently in Washington.

The U.S will not be able to expand it's refining capacity drastically due to strong NIMBY back lash. The are adjusting their facilities from light middle east crude to handle heavy oil and bitumen.

And bottom line is we have proven we cannot build the facilities fast enough to handle the proposed switch from middle east crude. Also the U.S's stimulus package had to be spent in the U.S so of course U.S refinery's were going to be upgraded. In anticipation of the loss of middle east crude.

 

And the added capacity is not just for Canadian heavy crude but for central and south American heavy crude.

 

And we already proved that we can not build the facilities fast enough to satisfy the proposed increase in demand for Canadian heavy crude and bitumen. In the last 5 years of flat out construction we barely broke an increase of 200,000 BPD upgrading capacity. yet we are expected to double the current million plus over the next 10 or 12 years. I can tell ya this not going to happen . We just physically can not do it. We do not have the manpower. The oil companies realized this and shifted a chunk of it south.

 

You wanna blame someone drop it on Ottawa and the proposed capping of CO2 emissions, that has done more damage than anything. As it will increase the cost of upgrading and refining here drastically. Where as no such restrictions exist state side.

 

 

We are still building upgraders here and increasing capacity in fact the proposed expansions will more than double all the capacity currently in the province that has taken 40 years to achieve . Hardly the doom and gloom the AFL is predicting .

 

As stands we will have the Alberta trades workforce 100% employed for most of the next decade.

Plus there are some massive projects planned that have not been made public ,one proposed bitumen mine with a capacity of 2.5Mil BPD and a sistered upgrader witha capacity of 1.4mill BPD.

Total investment of these facilities will be just shy of 40 billion and will constitute one of the largest construction projects the planet has ever seen.

The stake holders are waiting for a definitive answer on our CO2 policy so cost calculations can be finalized.

 

Also we are still moving forward with the Peace Nuke Plant. That will be an 8 year job employing 4000 constriction personal.

 

Yes keeping our upgrading capacity here is important but on the same hand we have to rope the Americans in to becoming reliant on Canadian crude to the tune of 30 to 40% of total daily consumption before we put the screws to them and start insisting on having all the upgrader plants here. Until that happens doing any thing different is just stupid.

 

Also maybe we should raising a stink with Ottawa on why Eastern Canada is still importing over 85% of it's crude oil and why it is not using upgraded Alberta and Sask heavy crude. That do more to boost expansions here than any thing. Why is that not mentioned by the AFL? That is a far more pressing issue.

 

Do not believe every thing the AFL drafts as it is completely biased organization that is looking out for nothing more than organized labour and primarly organized trades labour.

 

Do not get me wrong I'm pro union ad support the AFL but they have thier head up their ass with this one and has been their mode operandi over the decade and half they do more harm than good.

 

Case in point instead of going to the gov't when we were screaming for trades people and "saying hey we have a work pool of millions union brother and sisters available south of the border for these construction projects, instead they supported the Canadian trade unions position of NOT allowing them to work here cause there were Canadian members in the east out of work who refused to come here for work. Absolute f%$ing brilliant.

So what do we get instead a bunch of imported off shore workers and individuals crammed through schools with just enough knowledge to challenge our Journeyman certifications who do know a freaking marrett from their ass.

 

 

The AFL is as much responsible for the current situation as any one else.

 

 

 

Matthew

[J-150]

Maybe you should get your figures straight When Paul Marten turned over power to the useless that is spending money like he is Santa clause! Canada was in better shape than it had been in 100 years . Canada would have been in a lot worse shape if it wasn't for Paul Marten having a surplus for harper to waste .lying Brian Milroney put us in worse financial shape than any Prime Minister in the history of Canada.

 

 

BS.

 

All Martin did was have Dodge drop the central rate (saved billions in debt interest) and downloaded to the provinces.

 

Maybe Federally there was a surplus, but a number of provinces sawy deficits as a result of downloading/transfer cuts

[suv_guy_19]

Martin had Dodge drop the rate? That would mean that the Bank wasn't doing it's job relating to inflation if it was giving in to political interference.

 

Paul Martin and Jean Chretien balanced the budget (though Mulroney helped with the GST and his many tax increases). The fact that the provinces decided to cut taxes and services at the same time isn't their fault. The provinces recovered, Ottawa recovered, most services recovered or are recovering...we may have to rinse and repeat in a few years, but such is the business of running a country and balancing budgets.

 

Trudeau started the deficit, Mulroney laid the foundation to eliminate it (but didn't try all that hard), Chretien had it eliminated (and no matter how he did it, he got rid of it), and Martin and Harper both spent too much while cutting taxes...and then a recession came along.

[Trimdingman]

Maybe you should get your figures straight When Paul Marten turned over power to the useless that is spending money like he is Santa clause! Canada was in better shape than it had been in 100 years . Canada would have been in a lot worse shape if it wasn't for Paul Marten having a surplus for harper to waste .lying Brian Milroney put us in worse financial shape than any Prime Minister in the history of Canada.

 

It was Trudeau who left Mulroney with a mess to clean up. He had to continue the deficits for a few years to turn the ship around.

Harper is being forced to copy Obama on a smaller scale, or face US protectionism and the destruction of our economy. Our $50 billion deficit, while a record without adjusting for inflation, pales in comparison to what the US is doing. We had $40 billion plus deficits in the past, which would be over $100 billion in to-day's dollars.