Ford's product drought hampers recovery efforts

[DCK]

Let's look at this from a different point of view: GM's new Lambdas will move--what? maybe 250k volume--that's assuming that the Acadia, Outlook, and Enclave are all immediately the top selling vehicles in the segment (averaging 83k units a piece). You've got new pickups, that's 900k units of volume. Then there's the trickling launch of the new Epsilon, with the Aura, then the Malibu. Call that 350k units of volume we know about (again, being optimistic about volume). We also have the CTS at 50k, and the new Pontiac G5 (100k) We have no ETA for Zeta, we have no ETA for a new Delta, the only things we know are coming in the next year are these new crossovers, new Epsilons, the CTS, and the G5

 

Ford is launching an all new Super Duty (360k units), an all new Mazda6 (100k units), an all new S80 (50k units), an all new Escape/Mariner/Tribute (250k units), the Edge/MKX (150k units), LR2 (45k), C70 (30k), CX-9 (35k). That gives us a total of 1M units, with total annual Ford/Mazda volume of about 3.5M, that means Ford is replacing only about 29% of its lineup outright. However, when you factor in the vehicles that are getting 'face-lifts', including the Expy/Navi (150k), Focus (200k), D3s (200k), you get a further 16% of Ford's lineup that is getting some attention, giving a total of 45% for Ford volume that will be recognizably different by this time next year. By this time next year, GM will have at most 37% of its volume looking 'new'.

 

So yes, it is true that over the next year GM is launching a rather sizable percentage of new volume. However if you remove fullsize trucks from the equation, GM is replacing only 20% of its passenger car/SUV/CUV lineup. Ford, on the other hand (removing fullsize trucks), is replacing 26% of its passenger car lineup, and refreshing a further 21%.

 

Once you remove the outsize impact of the Silverado/Sierra, it becomes a different comparison altogether.

 

Also, please note that I excluded the Expy and Navi from the 'all new' category. Including them with the other all-new vehicles brings the total percentage of new Ford product to 36%. Further, note that Epsilon and Lambda volume was most optimistically estimated. I find it incredibly unlikely that combined Aura and Malibu volume will reach 350k units, or that Lambda volume will reach 250k.

1. 250k is about right, the enclave doesn't launch till next year. 250k is a very big numb er in this market for full size cuv's. I see the edge being the leader in sales in the small cuv market with around 200k but ford is only predicting 120k a year which i think they did it because it is easily ahievable.

 

2. The CTS will probably get a boost to 80k units, the spy photos shows GM best interior they ever designed and the current cts peaked at almost 70k units last year.

 

3. The epsilon 2 platform will be capable of all wheel drive, you will have the aura, g6, malibu, saab 9-3, saab 9-5. The next malibu i think will take over the sales of the impala while the impala moves up to being a real full size and the malibu moves up to real mid size. Overall i see the epsilon platforms producing 400k a year once the new malibu, saabs and g6 are launched. Also Buick may get an entry level vehicle off of the epsilon platform.......but that is just speculation.

 

4. The g5 will get no where near 100k. The g5 is simply a stop gap because dealers are complaining they had no small car GM only predicts 20k a year until they can get pontiac its own compact car.

 

5. The completely new vue launches next year.

 

6. The problem i have with Ford is the products like the escape trio, the full size suv's and mid size suv's need more sheetetal work than what they are receiving or in the focus's and ranger case need to be 100% all new by now. Even the super duty will be carry over sheetmetal while the GM Heavy Duty are completely new. Old sheetmetal is a turn off when your advertising a vehicle as all new.

Edited August 7, 2006 by DCK

[RichardJensen]

1. 250k is about right, the enclave doesn't launch till next year. 250k is a very big numb er in this market for full size cuv's. I see the edge being the leader in sales in the small cuv market with around 200k but ford is only predicting 120k a year which i think they did it because it is easily ahievable.

 

2. The CTS will probably get a boost to 80k units, the spy photos shows GM best interior they ever designed and the current cts peaked at almost 70k units last year.

 

3. The epsilon 2 platform will be capable of all wheel drive, you will have the aura, g6, malibu, saab 9-3, saab 9-5. The next malibu i think will take over the sales of the impala while the impala moves up to being a real full size and the malibu moves up to real mid size. Overall i see the epsilon platforms producing 400k a year once the new malibu, saabs and g6 are launched. Also Buick may get an entry level vehicle off of the epsilon platform.......but that is just speculation.

 

4. The g5 will get no where near 100k. The g5 is simply a stop gap because dealers are complaining they had no small car GM only predicts 20k a year until they can get pontiac its own compact car.

 

5. The completely new vue launches next year.

 

6. The problem i have with Ford is the products like the escape trio, the full size suv's and mid size suv's need more sheetetal work than what they are receiving or in the focus's and ranger case need to be 100% all new by now. Even the super duty will be carry over sheetmetal while the GM Heavy Duty are completely new. Old sheetmetal is a turn off when your advertising a vehicle as all new.

2) CTS sold 60k last year, numbers are off for this year, and against a new 3-Series, the CTS will struggle to get a 33% increase over 2005 sales (which is what 80k represents, and an even more impressive c.50% gain over 2006 levels)

 

4) Estimated a 50% reduction in Cobalt volume, based on Chevy passenger car volume about 2x Pontiac's.

 

6) Escape gets all new sheetmetal. All new everything for the Canyon/Colorado did nothing. SuperDuty sales are almost exclusively business, where carrying over the doors and some of the bed stamping is not as important as improving class-leading payload and trailering.

 

In reality, GM is just benefiting from a lot of hype right now. In terms of actual volume replacement over the next year, their numbers are quite similar to Ford's, and in terms of substantial midcycle updates, they're actually lagging behind.

Edited August 7, 2006 by RichardJensen

[630land]

The ones who demand new sheetmetal are car fantics, who just like to lok at pics, or trendoid who worship Paris Hilton. Trucks and SUV's don't have to be all new every year, and even the imports don't change trucks often.

 

The F series is not old at all. Only 3 years, and plans are set for new versions in time.

Edited August 7, 2006 by 630land

[Biker16]

I love Ford, I really Do.

 

and like any other beloved family member, it is our duty to tell them the truth.

 

Even when it hurts.

 

Ford brand needs to launch not the 2 trucks in 2007 but more like 2 trucks and 2-3 cars per year. Ford brand, not FLM, but Ford brand. for 2006 there was the Fusion and Explorer, for 2007 there is the Expy, Sport-trac and Edge. this aint enoguh, where are the cars. gas >$3.00 and no cars.

 

LM need 2-3 trucks and 2-3cars per year.

 

This trickle of product will continue to allow for an erosion of market share.

 

 

Now 2008 looks to be better with a new Focus, escape, F-SD. posible REFresshed 500, Freestyle. 3 cars, 2 trucks. this good, but you have to maintain this pace of 2-3 car 2-3 trucks. to keep the linup fresh and competitive. We can't continue this feast to Famine that has plaqued this company.

 

 

Ford is Off balance they react instead acting. Thier entire C-B cars are completely out of position. they are not what We want them to be, and there is no harm in saying that. The important thing is HOW they fix this problem. right now the B-cars have not been green lighted. neither has the next C-car so we have a known problem and peole still trying to figure WTF to do. the answer is obvious.

 

this is the answer

http://home.att.net/~biker16/Ford_Goal_To_500k.htm

 

a diverse lineup of cars and trucks on a shared archtechtures.

 

It simple, effective, and proven.

 

This is the Truth bold moves mean decisive leadership.

 

You need to make a decsion and be willing to stake you career on it.

[Edgey]

I think it's worth noting that we are witnessing two Detroit companies that are finally demonstrating remarkable progress. I think Ricard has pointed out very well that GM and Ford are basically moving at the same rate to turn around their products. GM has made astounding progress with its products and they deserve all the credit they are getting right now. I never imagined I would be test driving GMs for my next car; after 20 years of driving Fords (right now it's a Zephyr or CTS). Ford is a little behind GM, mostly because Ford's lineup is running really stale for 2007 and there will be no evidence of a product turnaround for 6 more months. By 2008, GM and Ford will be running neck and neck, one will be ahead on some products, the other will be ahead on others. Richard does agreat job convincing us all that Ford is playing their cards more strategically, while GM does a good job exciting the shopper looking for fresh choices. In either case, I think Detroit is looking much stronger and GM has come along the farthest in the shortest amount of time. Ford has always been a strong company while GM languished for decades. Ford lost it within the last decade so I don't think many are as easily impressed by Ford because better is expected of them, while GM had set the bar low.

[RichardJensen]

right now the B-cars have not been green lighted. neither has the next C-car

That can't be stated for certain.

[bri719]

I agree..Boring models...boring colors..

 

 

you cannot be serious

 

btw, I would gladly buy a Freestyle as well (in addition to a Mustang or SUV I would easily buy from them today, if there were no Edge in my near future). then again, I'm only one guy so I gotta stick to one more!

 

btw with 4+ flavors of Mustang about to be pumped out by Ford, the old and young looking for a domestic sports coupe, fun/sporty car, and mainstream performance car have gotta be going nuts (in a good way)

[bri719]

this is the answer

http://home.att.net/~biker16/Ford_Goal_To_500k.htm

 

a diverse lineup of cars and trucks on a shared archtechtures.

 

It simple, effective, and proven.

 

This is the Truth bold moves mean decisive leadership.

 

You need to make a decsion and be willing to stake you career on it.

 

 

you make some good points -- but from your very own webpage:

 

"The small car market is becoming dominated by the hatchback/CUV. "

 

 

Edge = sporty/midsize/upmarket CUV - if this is not one thing the market desires as much as anything, I don't know what is. you said it yourself

 

they need to work on the small cars true, but what, you act like the Fusion isn't destined for runaway success and a kickass car to drive, to boot

[bri719]

2007 is going to be a short model year for the following cars:

 

Five Hundred

Freestyle

Montego

Escape

Mariner

Tribute

SuperDuty

Focus

 

All are slated for significant changes in a 2008 model year that begins in January.

 

 

I'm a little confused by this statement, but I take it to mean the '08s start to go on sale in only 5 months?? well that's pretty cool... didn't think most of these were coming until 2007.5. I honestly don't know what these reporters are complaining about then. based on this info it almost makes no sense at all

 

Ford is doing a good job in most categories, just need to relentlessly pump out more vehicles the caliber of the Mustang, Fusion, and Edge and people will be flocking in droves. sure there are other problems (health care and suppliers mainly) but changing the product lineup to convince people how serious they are about putting out good, reliable, appealing product will do wonders

[RichardJensen]

I honestly don't know what these reporters are complaining about then.

They are complaining because Ford treats them like dirt. Or, refuses to cater to them the way GM and Chrysler do.

 

If you step into the wayback machine and go back to about this time last year, you'll find that paid scribes were making similarly dire predictions about GM's failure to launch new product.

 

What happened?

 

Folks at the General got all worked up and gave a special behind-the-scenes sneak preview of upcoming product to writers and so-forth.

 

And it wasn't everybody, it was a select group of journalists, and I'm sure that they got plenty of face time with Bob Lutz and other bigwigs, and I'm sure they were continually reminded how hush-hush it all was, and how they were being let in on a big secret, etc. etc. The kind of crap that really shouldn't work, but really does work.

 

Ford (in somewhat typical me-too fashion) invited a huge number of journalists to a reception where (in early December) they showed off concepts that were going to be seen at the 2006 NAIAS. That's right. Instead of showing off the whole shootin' match, they just gave some reporters about a 4 week lead on the NAIAS.

 

And the reporters have been griping ever since.

 

Sure, you'll find quality coverage from Amy Wilson, but dagnabbit, she's the only one outside the Detroit papers that can be relied on for anything.

Edited August 10, 2006 by RichardJensen

[bri719]

And the reporters have been griping ever since.

 

Sure, you'll find quality coverage from Amy Wilson, but dagnabbit, she's the only one outside the Detroit papers that can be relied on for anything.

 

 

yeah "journalists"... can't live with 'em, I forgot the rest.

 

I forgot to mention the F150 by the way, among the hugely successful best-in-class vehicles of which we need more. Freestyle is up there too though it is easily overlooked