bzcat

Some states have codified their short duration (2 to 4 hours) storage requirements which is why most of the projects are in this time span. Almost all of this market is batteries. Short duration is designed by default to provide operational reserve like you said. Long duration (4 to 8 hours) storage are still in its infancy and is dominated by pumped hydro. But several alternatives like gravity have emerged. Time shift on renewable is in the long duration market and most states are finalizing their regulatory targets. We should see lots of developments in this area in the next couple of years. Ultra long duration (8 hours to days/weeks/months) are focused on hydrogen. This segment is actually more advanced than long duration because the needs are clear. For example, to provide power during fire season/wind advisory events in California when the powerlines are de-energized to prevent wildfire. We may need to hold this energy reserve in standby for weeks or months at a time. Hydrogen is the ideal medium.

Grid level storage will be required to provide resiliency to enable better utilization of renewable sources. That's where states that have forward looking regulatory agencies are looking and a few have legislated required storage as a % of generating capacity. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/infographic-q4-21-us-battery-storage-by-the-numbers#:~:text=Currently%2C nine states have specific,New York%2C Oregon and Virginia.

Well, we know we are getting Raptor and we already have Tremor as a package not a trim level. And Wildtrak seems to approximate Lariat. So I suppose Platinum is really the only one missing in the US. I think Ford could try harder to sell Ranger in the US but then they have to deal with reducing Bronco output and give up that profit margin... it's a balancing act.

The RoW Ranger line up is heavily skewing towards the private buyers which is an interesting development. When Wildtrak first got added to T6 about 2 years after the debut of global Ranger, I remember reading either Car or Top Gear and the writer was very skeptical that a market exists for non-farm use pickup truck in the UK. I have to see if I can find that article...

Calling Explorer EV a compact SUV is really stretching the term. The size and ground clearance seems to be almost the same as existing Focus. Basically, if everything is marketed as SUV or CUV, does the term even mean anything anymore? Puma has mostly replaced Fiesta and Explorer EV is replacing Focus, at least in Europe where these models are sold. Ford probably will sell a EV sedan in China at some point but there won't be EV versions of Fiesta or Focus per se.

I came to post this pretty much verbatim. Night time charging now is generally considered green because we are just wasting that output to keep the base load on conventional power plants. Night time charging in the future will be less green because it will be disproportionally fossil fuel generated. While day time electricity will more likely be renewable.

Explorer and Capri are replacing Focus so think of one as a new Focus wagon and the other as new Focus hatch. It's silly marketing to call these CUV but when everything is a CUV, does that even mean anything anymore? ?

Hydrogen will make sense for some fleet operators but it won't for private buyers or any fleet that will depend on public fueling facilities which doesn't exist and too cost prohibitive to even contemplate on a scale comparable to current public EV charging infrastructure. But Ford is the leading provider of trucks to the kind of fleet operators that has the means to invest in localized hydrogen storage facility so Ford is probably the only OEM that has enough economy of scale to invest in hydrogen pickup trucks. The article basically fail to point out this obvious reality. Stellantis and GM doesn't sell as medium duty trucks to fleets as Ford so they can't make any serious investment in hydrogen (which will remain a niche market no matter what people wish). But noticed Ford's partnership is with natural gas companies and the fossil fuel industry... there is really no one out there seriously putting a lot of money in producing non-fossil fuel derived hydrogen, which is the problem. The math inevitably fails because hydrogen is grossly inefficient at energy storage so the money is better spent at improving other storage mediums with better upside. Hydrogen only makes sense economically if you are using natural gas as a feedstock. So all the money in promoting hydrogen is coming fossil fuel industry looking for a way to greenwash its product.

I see it more as Lightning will continue to be EV version of ICE F-150, whereas T3 project is on a different clean sheet BEV platform that is not related to ICE F-150. I think Ford will continue update Lightning with each new ICE F-150 update. And T3, which retaining the F-series branding, will probably be on its own separate model timeline. Like how Super Duty is basically its own model but still part of the F-series sub-brand. And I don't think "lifestyle" is the right word to describe T3. It's probably aimed at retail buyers but so are ICE F-150 once fleet sales switches mostly to EV.

Most trucks are sold as lifestyle accessories. I'm not sure what is the point of your comment. Ford markets F-series as lifestyle truck too. What kind of "work" do you think Raptor or F-450 Platinum is doing beside social signaling for the owner?

Yep... sounds like Lightning will stay beyond the launch of T3. Farley has hinted that several times now. I have no doubt the new one (Thunder?) will push the envelope on aero and efficiency.

Y competes with Mach E. They are both D-segment vehicles in Europe. This Explorer EV is C-segment. Tesla 2 will compete with it but it is still at least a year away. Probably more.

600k annualized rate by end of this year. Which means that Ford expects to produce or sell 50k EV a month by end of this year. And that number is global not US. Ford is expecting a ramp up of Mach E and Transit Custom EV sales this year. Plus the EU Explorer should hit the road in Q3.

This should be a very good and successful replacement for Focus. You can see how Ford has really made this its own despite using the MEB platfrom. Remember last year Farley said more Ford nameplates will become sub-brands? We thought it was a trial balloon to see if Escape EV will be named Explorer Sport (or something like that) but he really actually mean he will use the Explorer name on a bunch of different models.

MEB is the hardware platform and it is staying. SSP is the software platform which will have 3 versions (Trinity, Apollo, Artemis) with different features depending on price point. This is what all the car companies are doing as well. In the future, the hardware platform is not going to be as important (you can even outsource it - e.g. buy turnkey VW MEB or Foxconn platform) but the software is where the differentiation happens.

MQB is VW's transverse ICE platform. It's like Ford's C2 platform. MLB is VW's longitude ICE platform. It is like Ford's CD6 platform. MEB is VW's small to midsize EV platform, it is intended to replace MQB vehicles as they transition to EV. PPE is VW's large size EV platform, it is intended to replace MLB vehicles as they transition to EV. MEB and PPE are the hardware. They will be using the same same software platform (SSP) by 2024, starting with the Porsche Macan EV and Audi A6 eTron.

Ford tests all kinds of Chinese models here too doesn't mean they are coming here. Previous gen Transit Custom launched with FWD only 2 wheelbase and 2 roof height. You had to step up to the big Transit to get AWD. E-Transit Custom is indeed RWD. I wonder if it is the same basic drivetrain package as E-Transit.

Maybe fullsize in Japan but not anywhere else. Hiace has always been about the same size as other midsize vans like VW Transporter and Transit Custom. Toyota doesn't sell a Euro/US fullsize van. The two commercial vans it offers outside North America and Europe: Liteace/Townace ~ Transit Connect Hiace ~ Transit Custom The "Toyota Van" from the 1980s that was sold in the US was an earlier generation of Townace. In Europe, Toyota now sell rebadged Stellantis van and no longer offers its own vans Proace City (Citroen Berlingo) ~ Transit Connect Proace (Peugeot Expert) ~ Transit Custom

European van markets are not distorted by CAFE footprint and EPA emission cutoff at 8500 lbs GVWR. This is why Ford can offer 4 vans in different sizes. (it is distorted in other ways - e.g. CO2 emission targets and displacement based taxes that favors diesel over gas) I have explained the problem with Transit Custom before... it is in no-man's land in terms of GVWR. It is about 80% size of Transit but it is under 8500 lbs cutoff so it is subject to light duty vehicle emission. Ford would rather just sell you a Transit T150 (which at 8505 lbs is actually a class 2b like F-250) which places it in less stringent emission class and weighted impact to CAFE. And chances are if you want a van in Transit Custom size, you can easily make do with a Transit so Ford doesn't want to bother. And this is reflected in how fleet managers make the decision... midsize vans have never sold well in the US because you can "abuse" a full size to do the job without much cost penalty. This is why VW and Toyota don't want to sell Transporter and Hiace (the two best selling work vans outside the US)... it just doesn't make sense in the US given the emission and CAFE regulations. Transit Connect made sense because it is physically small, which means there is actually a big demand in urban area for such a small van. You can't "abuse" a full size Transit to do the job of Transit Connect if you don't have the physical room (e.g. tight parking, low garage roof etc). The business case for Transit Connect is fundamentally sound. Ford went as far as sending out RFP for Tier 1 suppliers for a new generation based on Maverick only to cancel it because it can't keep up with demand as is. https://nhcleancities.org/2016/04/various-vehicle-weight-classes-matter/

Transit Connect is still on sale in Europe. Ford extended the production in Spain until next year. Tourneo Connect is the passenger version and it did switch over to become rebadged Caddy. It's part of the Ford-VW commercial vehicle alliance in Europe. Ford will start supplying VW with Amarok pickup truck later this year. Ford will replace Transit Connect with the new Transit Courier which will be bigger than the current one. Sales didn't evaporate. Supply did. The three vans in the market all had supply circumstance change related to corporate decisions and nothing to do with actual demand. Ford pulled back when it lost the Chicken Tax court case. It was going to make a new one based on Maverick in Mexico but cancelled it because Hermosillo cannot keep up with demand on Bronco Sport and Maverick. And Nissan withdrew from fleet sales so it ended production of NV200 in Mexico (and the fullsize NV2500/3500). Ram PromasterCity's days are also numbered because Stellantis has replaced Fiat Doblo with a rebadged Citrone Berlingo which is not Federalized - the CKD operation in Mexico will end once they run out of stock.

1 in 5 vehicles sold in California last year was EV (in the 4th quarter, EV+PHEV was 1 in 4 sales) so we are already passed the early adopter stage. in 2017, EV sales was about 3% of total sales in California so basically California is 5 years ahead of the rest of the country. So I can see Ford comfortably selling 1/3 BEV and 2/3 ICE/hybrids by 2030. Perhaps even 1/2... but to say 2030 Ford will reach 100% EV sales in the US is bit aggressive. A lot will depend on how good the Explorer and next gen Lightning are... I hope that 24 months delay on Explorer is worth it. https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/zero-emission-vehicle-and-infrastructure-statistics/new-zev-sales https://insideevs.com/news/651899/california-plugin-car-sales-2022q4/

Fairly certain Ford just doesn't want Toyota to know the final specs for US Ranger so they have less time to react and tweak the new Tacoma.

Well... Ford sold 624 last month and has 1300 in stock so roughly 2 months worth of sales. It will functionally be sold out by start of summer but I'm sure we will see a couple of random registrations throughout the rest of the year. Huge jump in Transit delivery this month! Edge just keeps on trucking despite one foot in the coffin. Keep waiting for that Mach E production bump to take over from Edge... so far not happening. Escape sales have fallen off the cliff. I thought it was due to the facelift and lack of inventory but seems like Ford is just choosing not to build any. Bronco Sport inventory level is actually higher than Escape now thanks to that extra shift at Hermosillo. Ranger sales probably hit rock bottom due to end of production and shifting of volume over to Bronco. 2024 launch is right around the corner.

Flex fuel got a CAFE bonus that ended after 2019 model year so no one is making new flex fuel vehicle anymore. We just have hold over from cars that were engineered from the time when the CAFE bonus was in effect.

USPS also buys lots of ICE Transit but just not on this particular tender.