Ford in 2020

[CPManx]

My last postings vanished mysteriously during the board redesign (hmmm...).

 

So let me pose the question that eats at me, the question I hope eats at Bill & his management team as well: Can Ford survive as an independent company?

 

We've all heard plenty of chatter about how Ford (like GM) cannot thrive simply by shrinking and shrinking again, which seems crashingly obvious. Yet that has been to be Ford's direction for more than a decade. Careening strategy from country to country and market to market has led to some truly weird decisions--effectivley abandoning the midsize car and compact pickup segments for years in the U.S., letting Lincoln slide into near-oblivion, edging belatedly into China, taking forever to build a strategy around the Ka in Europe. Given Ford's downward market-share trend, high health-care costs, and still-sluggish pace of R&D, it's hard to see that the trend is going to stop.

 

What next then? I see four scenarios:

 

- The company rights itself, streamlines, starts to grow, remains independent

- The company enters a friendly merger (hard to imagine, but maybe with Honda, or even VW?)

- The company is bought out

- The company goes bankrupt

 

I find it tough to believe that bankruptcy is really looming, or that the federal govt would allow it to happen. But a friendly merger seems more likely than not. I'd give less than 50-50 odds of seeing an independent Ford in the year 2020.

 

What do other people think? More important, what does Ford management imagine the company will look 15 years from now?

[MyBlueOval]

My last postings vanished mysteriously during the board redesign (hmmm...).

 

So let me pose the question that eats at me, the question I hope eats at Bill & his management team as well: Can Ford survive as an independent company?

 

We've all heard plenty of chatter about how Ford (like GM) cannot thrive simply by shrinking and shrinking again, which seems crashingly obvious. Yet that has been to be Ford's direction for more than a decade. Careening strategy from country to country and market to market has led to some truly weird decisions--effectivley abandoning the midsize car and compact pickup segments for years in the U.S., letting Lincoln slide into near-oblivion, edging belatedly into China, taking forever to build a strategy around the Ka in Europe. Given Ford's downward market-share trend, high health-care costs, and still-sluggish pace of R&D, it's hard to see that the trend is going to stop.

 

What next then? I see four scenarios:

 

- The company rights itself, streamlines, starts to grow, remains independent

- The company enters a friendly merger (hard to imagine, but maybe with Honda, or even VW?)

- The company is bought out

- The company goes bankrupt

 

 

Don't rely on federal help! Didn't you hear Pres. Bush's remark on the problems of GM?

"They should build cars that the public wants" or something along those lines. Bush is for

pure globalization, no borders, North America all one, why he doesn't care about putting

more border guards in the southwest. Imagine no countries.

I find it tough to believe that bankruptcy is really looming, or that the federal govt would allow it to happen. But a friendly merger seems more likely than not. I'd give less than 50-50 odds of seeing an independent Ford in the year 2020.

 

What do other people think? More important, what does Ford management imagine the company will look 15 years from now?

[2005Explorer]

First of all a lot can happen in 15 years so it is hard to predict where Ford Motor Company will be in the year 2020. They could become a very strong company again. We can't write them off yet. I do think however GM is on the crash course right to bankruptcy. Ford has many of the same issues, but less of them and it is a smaller company. GM is just a huge brute that has so many issues I don't see how they will ever get better before they file. Of course, I am one that believes bankruptcy would be the final nail in the coffin for GM. Who wants to buy a car from a company that you are not sure will be around in a year or two? If GM goes down there would be some backlash that might help Ford over the imports, but there are so many people in the US now cheering for Ford and GM to both go broke who knows? Everyone is so in love with Toyota that it might not matter anymore.

 

A possible merger? Maybe, but I can promise the Ford family won't let that happen easily. Bill will do about everything before that. You can't tell me that there is not a lot of pride in having your name on millions of vehicles. I don't see where a merger would benefit any of the Japanese brands except for Honda. They would love to get the F-series and rebrand it the H-series. My guess if there was a merger the combined companies would go by Honda because everyone wants a Honda anymore. If it was a Honda H-150 it would probably sell better even if it was the same pickup. That is how sad people have became. Toyota does not want anything to do with Ford or GM. The only paring that I could see is Honda-Ford, but I don't know if Honda really wants to try and beat Toyota or not. A Ford buyout would give them a huge dealer network and a good line of trucks and BOF SUV's. They and Toyota would then be in battle for number 1 and 2.

 

Last, one thing that is never discussed is GM trying to merge with Ford. I know it sounds crazy and Ford would never accept that deal because it would only make them a weaker company, but I could see them come to them in a year or two and hope that with a combined company they would have more resources to tackle Toyota.

 

I think whatever happens in 15 years it is safe to assume that Toyota will be far and away the largest builder of vehicles. I will be positive and say that there is a 60% chance that FoMoCo will still be independent in 15 years. I think Bill Ford is very passionate about his company. Watch Bill speak about Ford Motor Company and then watch Rick Wagoner speak about GM. I can promise there are not a lot of CEO's out there with the exception of Steve Jobs with Apple that would come on stage and say, "I love this Company" and really mean it.

Edited November 29, 2005 by 2005Explorer

[fllcobra]

There is no doubt that Ford is going to hold its ground. William Clay Ford, Jr. is on the right track by pressing Congress to deal with the issue of health care. It is simply too expensive and is burdoning not only Ford but almost every sector in business.

 

Unfortunately, it may take the bankrupsy or near doom of GM before politicians finally get it.

[RichardJensen]

I would like to see Ford organically grow the Ford Credit side of the business, so that the overall company is not as dependent on the manufacturing side for profit. They should always be a car company, but they shouldn't shy away from other lucrative businesses; the automotive sector is far to cyclical in nature for any company to be healthy carrying the fixed costs that Ford carries in the U.S., and in Europe.

 

...

[Serpent]

Toyota does not want anything to do with Ford or GM.

 

Thats not true. Toyota has had a partnership with GM since the late '80s. Theres a plant in California that Toyota and GM jointly own called, "New United Motor Manufacturing" (NUMMI).

Every hear of a Geo/Chevy Prizm? Its a rebadged Toyota Corolla. Pontiac Vibe? At its core its a Toyota Matrix.

I think Ford will be OK. They are cutting back production to suit demand and coming out with some very nice cars (500, Fusion, Zephyr, ect) that should compete very well with the Japanese and Korean makes.

Toyota has issues that they need to work out if they are going to maintain their current position. They need to overhaul and improve their dealer network.

People are already questioning if Toyota's quality is slipping, what are they going to say when Toyota is selling 4 times as many vehicles as they are currently selling (and when they have 4 times as many defects).

[68Cougar]

Last, one thing that is never discussed is GM trying to merge with Ford. I know it sounds crazy and Ford would never accept that deal because it would only make them a weaker company, but I could see them come to them in a year or two and hope that with a combined company they would have more resources to tackle Toyota.

Nobody wants GM's problems, so I don't see them merging with anyone. If the justice dept would get out of the way, I don't see why Ford and GM could not work on some projects together, like small cars or safety tech.

[thirdmust]

I see Ford reinventing what constitutes the dealer network. I believe a big chunk of their problems are on the dealer side. I have purchased 5 new Fords. None of the dealers were anything near stellar. Because of this my wife defected to Subaru on her last purchase. I would have preferred to see an Escape parked next to my Mustang believe me. Oh and that so called Made in Japan quality must have been an option that we missed. The Forester had to have new pistons installed on the right side of its Boxer Engine at 14K. Sounded like a diesel it was so loud. All service was done at 3K intervals at the dealer. If it was not for that I bet we would have had a fight on our hands to have it fixed.

 

Bill will prevail IMHO.

Edited December 7, 2005 by thirdmust

[voncoon]

My last postings vanished mysteriously during the board redesign (hmmm...).

 

So let me pose the question that eats at me, the question I hope eats at Bill & his management team as well: Can Ford survive as an independent company?

 

We've all heard plenty of chatter about how Ford (like GM) cannot thrive simply by shrinking and shrinking again, which seems crashingly obvious. Yet that has been to be Ford's direction for more than a decade. Careening strategy from country to country and market to market has led to some truly weird decisions--effectivley abandoning the midsize car and compact pickup segments for years in the U.S., letting Lincoln slide into near-oblivion, edging belatedly into China, taking forever to build a strategy around the Ka in Europe. Given Ford's downward market-share trend, high health-care costs, and still-sluggish pace of R&D, it's hard to see that the trend is going to stop.

 

What next then? I see four scenarios:

 

- The company rights itself, streamlines, starts to grow, remains independent

- The company enters a friendly merger (hard to imagine, but maybe with Honda, or even VW?)

- The company is bought out

- The company goes bankrupt

 

I find it tough to believe that bankruptcy is really looming, or that the federal govt would allow it to happen. But a friendly merger seems more likely than not. I'd give less than 50-50 odds of seeing an independent Ford in the year 2020.

 

What do other people think? More important, what does Ford management imagine the company will look 15 years from now?

 

I dunno about Ford, but for sure I don't believe the United States of Americas will still be here in 2020l

[sept68]

Sure it will. It will be a third world country.

 

Or we won't be the lone superpower.

[Harry Bennet]

Great Topic!

I think the worst years are now through 2015

Getting the Baby Boomers into retirement and supporting them unitl death will be very hard on the USA

Decisions are being made: Do not upgrade the parts plant so we can keep the pension fund solvent

IMHO I expect some improved from of governement health care (every one can get MediCaid/MediCare)

Then some real price controls can come in

Right now GM is a health care provider that makes cars (not my quote, heard it from Auto Insider)

Employer Provided health care will continue to stifle the private sector

I truly believe there will be Ford Trucks well past 2103

At very worst Ford's future will be very similar to John Deere and Harley Davidson

Provide good products to a very loyal base

I dream that Ford porvides Hydrogen at all its dealserships and then goes into the Hydrogen distribution business

Its hard to imagine that Ford market share could get below 12%, but it will be a damn hard road to decline

[CPManx]

Health care is certainly one of the biggest challenges facing American companies (Ford is far from alone!) with aging workforces and a shrinking overall business. I like to think that the federal govt will take on a significantly more aggressive role toward health care, but so far there's no political will to do so.

 

The other problems are also looming ominously and obviously, but the solutions are far from clear. Chinese imports are probably no more than a year or two away, which will lead to cutthroat competition at the bottom and a move upscale by the Koreans, following in the tradition of the Japanese. Will Ford begin outsourcing some of its cars? If not, it's hard to see how it can hold onto market share.

 

Meanwhile, Ford's product-development plans, while improving, still fall well behind the foreign competition in both pace and innovation. I look at the Ranger, the Focus...then at the Tacoma and the Civic. It breaks my heart.