Which Will It Be?

[johnnysakko]

Anyone hear anything new about the shift cuts??

[fantasyfrank]

Anyone hear anything new about the shift cuts??

I haven't heard anything so I guess I shouldn't be replying to this thread but I will anyway. I think it will be both plants, the price of gas is not going to ever go down to what is was in the "good ol' days". Ford's sales are sinking by the minute and to think all plants won't be seeing any kind of cutbacks or layoffs is insane. There is no other option, sales suck, with no end in sight.

[S.Knight]

I haven't heard anything so I guess I shouldn't be replying to this thread but I will anyway. I think it will be both plants, the price of gas is not going to ever go down to what is was in the "good ol' days". Ford's sales are sinking by the minute and to think all plants won't be seeing any kind of cutbacks or layoffs is insane. There is no other option, sales suck, with no end in sight.

Why would you think gas prices won't come down? I bet you thought internet stocks and home prices had reached a "permanently high plateau"(one of the greatest quotes of all time by Irving Fisher) as well. Here is an article which may add a little light as to why you shouldn't always buy into the fear that is being peddled to you...

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

[Hotlanta]

Why would you think gas prices won't come down? I bet you thought internet stocks and home prices had reached a "permanently high plateau"(one of the greatest quotes of all time by Irving Fisher) as well. Here is an article which may add a little light as to why you shouldn't always buy into the fear that is being peddled to you...

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

 

And here's another article that will shed light as to why oil prices won't come down. It just depends on who you ask - no one really knows what is going to happen.

 

Link

 

Personally, I don't believe we'll see lower gas prices again. There's too much demand globally, and it's just continuing to rise. Of course, just my opinion. There's nothing I'd like better than to see gas prices lowered, and hopefully the food prices would follow; but I'm not counting on it.

[S.Knight]

And here's another article that will shed light as to why oil prices won't come down. It just depends on who you ask - no one really knows what is going to happen.

 

Link

 

Personally, I don't believe we'll see lower gas prices again. There's too much demand globally, and it's just continuing to rise. Of course, just my opinion. There's nothing I'd like better than to see gas prices lowered, and hopefully the food prices would follow; but I'm not counting on it.

Do you always use federal government propaganda generating news organizations for your news stories? You have to at least try to balance your argument a little. I mean their web site touts a section to teach "american english" to its users. I did a search on their web site to find an article that talked about the decrease of consumer consumption of oil in the last few months and there wasn't one. In every main stream publication I have read recently there are tons of stories about how americans are adapting to high prices by changing consumption patterns. I mean this thread is devoted to one.

 

And just for the sake of argument...do you know of any other commodities which have escalated in price to a degree like this and haven't come down in time? People always change their consumption and prices always come down.

Edited June 9, 2008 by S.Knight

[Hotlanta]

Do you always use federal government propaganda generating news organizations for your news stories? You have to at least try to balance your argument a little. I mean their web site touts a section to teach "american english" to its users. I did a search on their web site to find an article that talked about the decrease of consumer consumption of oil in the last few months and there wasn't one. In every main stream publication I have read recently there are tons of stories about how americans are adapting to high prices by changing consumption patterns. I mean this thread is devoted to one.

 

And just for the sake of argument...do you know of any other commodities which have escalated in price to a degree like this and haven't come down in time? People always change their consumption and prices always come down.

 

No, I don't use 'propaganda' generating news organizations for my news stories. Feel free to google it yourself, take your pick; there are numerous stories, numerous 'experts' who take both sides of the argument.

 

Even at the meeting of the Group of Eight industrialized nations that was held just today, energy ministers heard statements from leading experts that the world is in an era where oil is not going to be cheap, and energy security will be a top concern to all governments.

 

But I guess that isn't 'balanced' enough for you, either?

 

And as far as commodities prices falling - this is a market unlike no other - I am surprised that commodities haven't fallen already, and so are most experts. But that still doesn't change the fact that there is a huge global demand for oil, and supply is not keeping up with demand.

 

I don't know why you want to make an argument out of it - like I stated before, there are differing opinions from both laypeople AND experts. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, as am I.

[S.Knight]

No, I don't use 'propaganda' generating news organizations for my news stories. Feel free to google it yourself, take your pick; there are numerous stories, numerous 'experts' who take both sides of the argument.

 

Even at the meeting of the Group of Eight industrialized nations that was held just today, energy ministers heard statements from leading experts that the world is in an era where oil is not going to be cheap, and energy security will be a top concern to all governments.

 

But I guess that isn't 'balanced' enough for you, either?

 

And as far as commodities prices falling - this is a market unlike no other - I am surprised that commodities haven't fallen already, and so are most experts. But that still doesn't change the fact that there is a huge global demand for oil, and supply is not keeping up with demand.

 

I don't know why you want to make an argument out of it - like I stated before, there are differing opinions from both laypeople AND experts. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, as am I.

On further review I guess my response was a little harsh. I realize that there are two sides of the argument and of course you are entitled to your opinion(as wrong as it is... ) Its just the side you were addressing has no historic president and the people perpetuating those fears are undoubtedly the ones profiting from its spread.

[sailorjohn1]

And just for the sake of argument...do you know of any other commodities which have escalated in price to a degree like this and haven't come down in time? People always change their consumption and prices always come down.

 

 

Big difference between most commodities and crude oil, crude oil doesn't grow on a farm, it is an absolutely finite resource. You're seeing the effect of increased demand from places like India and China AND the depletion of known reserves.

[fantasyfrank]

Why would you think gas prices won't come down? I bet you thought internet stocks and home prices had reached a "permanently high plateau"(one of the greatest quotes of all time by Irving Fisher) as well. Here is an article which may add a little light as to why you shouldn't always buy into the fear that is being peddled to you...

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

I don't have to buy into any fear.....just a dixie cup of common sense. I hope you and your article are correct though......I hope for everybody's sake.

[S.Knight]

Big difference between most commodities and crude oil, crude oil doesn't grow on a farm, it is an absolutely finite resource. You're seeing the effect of increased demand from places like India and China AND the depletion of known reserves.

You are missing the real effect this high price of crude will have on demand. As we plainly see people are moving in droves away from inefficient vehicles, reducing the distance they drive, carpooling, looking for alternatives to oil products.

 

The high price also creates incentive for alternatives to oil use to be produced. What people really miss in this argument is that the only reason that oil is used to fill our needs in the first place... is because of its low cost. It's not that the technology to produce alternatives isn't possible to develop... it's just, at low oil prices not efficient(profitable) to develop them. Each day oil trades at these elevated levels gives reason(profits for producers) for the development of the alternatives.

 

While oil doesn't grow on farms...I think farmers will argue their corn crops are doing a mighty job lowering our dependance on it.(ethanol)

Edited June 10, 2008 by S.Knight

[CSMJ]

Both will get cut

[Bigcountry]

I haven't heard anything so I guess I shouldn't be replying to this thread but I will anyway. I think it will be both plants, the price of gas is not going to ever go down to what is was in the "good ol' days". Ford's sales are sinking by the minute and to think all plants won't be seeing any kind of cutbacks or layoffs is insane. There is no other option, sales suck, with no end in sight.

 

 

I agree. I hate to say it but before its all over with DTP will be the only plant building the f150, 2 shifts, 4-10s, room for overtime if needed!

[napbob]

It's no telling what's going to happen. If I had to guess, I would have to agree with Big. We stopped and looked at a Flex yesterday. I like then but at 17/24 I hope they aren't building a lot of them.

[speedy gonzales]

It's no telling what's going to happen. If I had to guess, I would have to agree with Big. We stopped and looked at a Flex yesterday. I like then but at 17/24 I hope they aren't building a lot of them.

 

At this point, I don't think the F Series is the best product to have under roof. If DTP does get all the F-Series production, new product (likely cars) will be coming to KCAP, which right now wouldn't be a bad thing!

[fantasyfrank]

At this point, I don't think the F Series is the best product to have under roof. If DTP does get all the F-Series production, new product (likely cars) will be coming to KCAP, which right now wouldn't be a bad thing!

You wish a new product would be coming to KCAP.....try HAP. (hermosillio assembly plant)

[kcsuperduty]

There is only a small group of people that know what the outcome is going to be and that will be announced shortly in Dearborn. I think Ford will start by eliminating 1 shift at DTP then have some down weeks for both plants then if things are not better one of the plants will get all of the F150's and the other plant will get a new product (car).

But I do know that Ford better be prepared to bring out some better vehicles ( hydrogen, plug in electrics) and soon because we are getting beat up on by the media. And that adds to the problems we already have wtih the american car buyer. They believe we are lazy and overpaid and our vehicles are not as well built and more reliable.Toyota and Honda are getting alot of good (free) press with announcements of vehicles being ready for buyers in 2010. Alot of magazines or papers that show hybrids usually have a picture of a foriegn car not one of the Big Three of Detroit. A majority of UAW workers will be spared but others will be released. I still believe that the UAW needs to improve their image, with union workers in this country down to 11% the masses in this country are not in favor of joining unions that is a fact. We are in for a rough road ahead.

[Dadzee]

You wish a new product would be coming to KCAP.....try HAP. (hermosillio assembly plant)

 

 

I would worry more about closing announcements.

 

I know some are saying bargaining committees are being summoned to Dearborne. Does this mean the opening of the contract and closings will soon be upon us.

 

I would not see it as something far-fetched, and would also not throw it around lightly, as I understand the catastrophic effect it would have for some people and communities.

 

Best to all in those plants that kept us afloat as Ford decided to go for the short term big profit of SUVs and let the small and midsize sedan market go to #$%^.

[kcsuperduty]

One thing people are forgetting is that when you have or start a business the first thought is what am I going to produce,build or service you are going to offer. If you ask consumers what type of vehicle they would like to drive most of them say SUV's, Trucks, and performance vehicles. But fuel prices are causing them to change their minds. Take a look at Toyota and Honda they never used to build SUV's and Trucks but they seen how many consumers were willing to buy them which brought big profits for the companies. Ford, GM and Chrysler did nothing wrong they were just building what the consumers were wanting. Even though the media beats up the Big 3 for producing Suv's and Trucks but given a pass to Toyota and Honda for building them. If fuel prices were $1.50 to $1.90 a gallon the Suv and Truck plants would be working overtime.

[fantasyfrank]

One thing people are forgetting is that when you have or start a business the first thought is what am I going to produce,build or service you are going to offer. If you ask consumers what type of vehicle they would like to drive most of them say SUV's, Trucks, and performance vehicles. But fuel prices are causing them to change their minds. Take a look at Toyota and Honda they never used to build SUV's and Trucks but they seen how many consumers were willing to buy them which brought big profits for the companies. Ford, GM and Chrysler did nothing wrong they were just building what the consumers were wanting. Even though the media beats up the Big 3 for producing Suv's and Trucks but given a pass to Toyota and Honda for building them. If fuel prices were $1.50 to $1.90 a gallon the Suv and Truck plants would be working overtime.

Yes, if gas was $1.50 a gallon, Ford wouldn't be in this critical shape they are in....the price of gas is the only reason we are in this mess.

[WXM69]

Nothing will be done till most likely after the first of the year. Ford's launching the '09's and they won't be on sale till Sept/Oct. and sales results for the 3month quarter after that. A shift will be cut the question is when.

[S.Knight]

Look for Ford to make a move which will allow them to temporarily reduce production of the 150. This has been the #1 selling vehicle and the backbone of our company for years. The sales of this vehicle are very recession sensitive(used by contractors). If Ford makes a move which permanently reduces the ability to make these truck instantaneously when the economy inevitably rebounds... we have given up the core of this company and its over.

[kcsuperduty]

I agree S.Knight we cannot give up every truck plant that is why I believe that they will slow down the lines and go to mass relief as well as down weeks. Because Ford has the #1 Truck and when the construction business fires back up you will see consumers buying the F150 again. You do not want to be caught by not having the capacity to meet the demands. If they used plug ins and hydrogen for cars and cross overs as well as small Suvs they could use oil for trucks. Because they use more energy and I am not sure in the immediate future they can find a alternative to gas for trucks with the demand for power the need.

[S.Knight]

I agree S.Knight we cannot give up every truck plant that is why I believe that they will slow down the lines and go to mass relief as well as down weeks. Because Ford has the #1 Truck and when the construction business fires back up you will see consumers buying the F150 again. You do not want to be caught by not having the capacity to meet the demands. If they used plug ins and hydrogen for cars and cross overs as well as small Suvs they could use oil for trucks. Because they use more energy and I am not sure in the immediate future they can find a alternative to gas for trucks with the demand for power the need.

I wouldn't rule out taking shifts away(temporarily). In KC particularly, it makes sense to lose a shift on the 150 side and move it to Escape production. When the economy, and thus sales for the 150, responds the shift could be returned. What could be better to Ford and the employees of KC, is that if Escape sales remain strong responding to the return of 150 sales with the hiring of a new shift of lower tier wage employees to fill it. Thus running a three shift operation of Escapes and two 150 shifts.

Edited June 11, 2008 by S.Knight

[Hallmark]

I wouldn't rule out taking shifts away(temporarily). In KC particularly, it makes sense to lose a shift on the 150 side and move it to Escape production. When the economy, and thus sales for the 150, responds the shift could be returned. What could be better to Ford and the employees of KC, is that if Escape sales remain strong responding to the return of 150 sales with the hiring of a new shift of lower tier wage employees to fill it. Thus running a three shift operation of Escapes and two 150 shifts.

 

 

Hey S.Knight or Sir Nose....LoL keep ur head up you know we had some good times back in the shop @EAP awe the good old days with ...Paulie/Sanders/Marcus/DaFoe/Bronco/Teddy and even Rocco! When you heading out or are you still on hold!! You know if the gas prices dont pick up we all might be looking for a job!! There's still talking bout losing a shift around here!

 

hey why is it that we are always behind when it comes to what is happening in the marketplace.... hum i'm just asking? Dont we pay guys good money to know when the marketplace will change..ie when we went from cars to trucks and now back to cars!!

[S.Knight]

Hey S.Knight or Sir Nose....LoL keep ur head up you know we had some good times back in the shop @EAP awe the good old days with ...Paulie/Sanders/Marcus/DaFoe/Bronco/Teddy and even Rocco! When you heading out or are you still on hold!! You know if the gas prices dont pick up we all might be looking for a job!! There's still talking bout losing a shift around here!

 

hey why is it that we are always behind when it comes to what is happening in the marketplace.... hum i'm just asking? Dont we pay guys good money to know when the marketplace will change..ie when we went from cars to trucks and now back to cars!!

 

Log in...I sent you a PM.

 

As for adaptation to marketplace conditions... Who could have expected a continued downturn like this? I mean sure the big three are at fault for the original non adaptation to market conditions(first round of plant closure pain...in which the lives of us EAP personnel were sent into turmoil). They can't be blamed for this run-up of fuel prices and the mortgage fiasco led recession. They are adapting to the currently changing market conditions... but are totally dependent on the end of this economic downturn to right this ship. Hopefully it will end quickly and we can settle into a nice long bull cycle where we will get to tell all those youngbloods our tales of woe...