True car forecast of Ford June sales

[weiweishen]

Link

http://www.fiercefinance.com/press-releases/truecar-forecasts-june-auto-sales-and-incentives-spending

 

 

TrueCar Forecasts June Auto Sales and Incentives Spending

Recaps Sales and Incentive Spending for the First Half of 2010

June 24-- TrueCar.com forecasted today that June 2010 light vehicle sales (including fleet) in the U.S. is expected to be 985,266 units, an increase of 14.8% from this time last year but a drop of 10.5% from May 2010 (on an unadjusted basis). June's forecast translates into a SAAR level of 11.1 million new car sales.

 

The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,870 in June, which represents a 1.1% increase from May and a 6.2% jump from this time last year.

With June marking the midpoint of the year, TrueCar is also offering a snapshot of the first half of 2010. Based on the first five months of actual sales and TrueCar's forecast for June, total industry sales will be up 17% compared to the first half of 2009. Meanwhile, the industry average incentive spending per unit will be down 5% for the same time period.

"In light of what we have observed to this point in 2010, we are now downgrading our annual forecast from 11.9 million to 11.6," said Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insight for TrueCar.com. "The negative impact on consumer confidence caused by the volatility in the financial markets limited what otherwise would have been a more robust recovery so far this year."

Toprak added: "However, higher sales and lower incentive spending levels compared to the first half of 2009 clearly indicate that consumer demand is getting stronger. We were able to jumpstart the car, we just don't seem to be able to get it going over 25 mph."

TrueCar.com is reporting the following about sales and incentive spending in June:

All of GM's individual brands showed tremendous growth in the last month, when compared to a lackluster last June for the company. GMC (42.9%) led the way with Buick (42.5%), Chevrolet (40.3%) and Cadillac (34.5%) following closely behind.

Sales of American cars are up nearly 19%, which is tops among the identified manufacturing regions of the world. South Korea is up 13%, Japan is up 12.3% and Europe follows at 6.2%.

Highest per vehicle incentives were offered by Lincoln ($5,395), Volvo ($5,141) and Infiniti ($4,720). Scion offered the lowest incentives per unit at $794, preceded on the list by Subaru at $1,521 and smart at $1,525.

Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for June:

Unit Sales Forecast

Manufacturer June 2010 Forecast Change vs. May 2010 Change vs. June 2009

Chrysler 90,481 -13.7% 32.5%

Ford 172,880 -10.0% 16.9%

GM 199,149 -10.3% 15.2%

Honda 104,952 -10.4% 4.5%

Nissan 74,675 -10.9% 28.1%

Toyota 142,241 -12.6% 8.0%

Hyundai/Kia 73,184 -9.1% 13.0%

 

Market Share Forecast

Manufacturer June 2010 Forecast May 2010 June 2009

Chrysler 9.2% 9.5% 8.0%

Ford 17.6% 17.4% 17.2%

GM 20.2% 20.2% 20.1%

Honda 10.7% 10.6% 11.7%

Nissan 7.6% 7.6% 6.8%

Toyota 14.4% 14.8% 15.3%

Hyundai/Kia 7.4% 7.3% 7.6%

Incentive Spending Forecast

Manufacturer June 2010 Incentives Change vs. May 2010/2009 Total Incentive Spending

Chrysler $3,676 0.2%/-5.3% $332,622,411

Ford $3,034 -0.7%/11.1% $524,559,596

GM $3,404 -8.7%/-4.8% $677,943,914

Honda $1,993 -6.4%/25.8% $209,191,343

Nissan $3,137 0.5%/8.4% $234,249,013

Toyota $2,236 16.3%/33.2% $318,077,531

Hyundai/Kia $2,384 15.3%/5.5% $174,473,376

Industry $2,870 1.1%/6.2% $2,828,086,963

When looking at total sales for the first half 2010 versus 2009, Ford overtook the number 2 spot from Toyota and narrowed the gap with GM. The only other ranking change was Nissan reclaiming the number 6 spot from Hyundai/Kia. Additionally, Toyota will have the smallest year-over-year increase of any major manufacturer.

First Half 2010 Sales*

Manufacturer 1H 2010 1H 2009 Change 1H 2010 vs 1H 2009

GM 1,078,800 935,941 15.3%

Ford 955,331 743,496 28.5%

Toyota 848,925 770,449 10.2%

Honda 592,234 530,778 11.6%

Chrysler 525,218 471,197 11.5%

Nissan 450,437 347,744 29.5%

Hyundai/Kia 415,925 352,090 18.1%

Industry 5,611,612 4,800,389 16.9%

First Half 2010 Per Unit Incentives Spending*

Manufacturer 1H 2010 1H 2009 Change 1H 2010 vs 1H 2009

Chrysler $3,611 $4,349 -17.0%

GM $3,378 $3,401 -0.7%

Nissan $3,094 $2,880 7.4%

Ford $2,961 $2,951 0.3%

Hyundai/Kia $2,132 $3,549 -39.9%

Toyota $2,001 $1,606 24.6%

Honda $1,953 $1,696 15.2%

Industry $2,757 $2,905 -5.1%

Edited June 24, 2010 by weiweishen

[akirby]

A little early to be making June sales predictions. I wonder if the Lincoln figure includes the Town Car? I assume it does and probably accounts for almost half of that average.

[Ford Jellymoulds]

Link

http://www.fiercefin...ntives-spending

 

 

First Half 2010 Per Unit Incentives Spending*

Manufacturer 1H 2010 1H 2009 Change 1H 2010 vs 1H 2009

Chrysler $3,611 $4,349 -17.0%

GM $3,378 $3,401 -0.7%

Nissan $3,094 $2,880 7.4%

Ford $2,961 $2,951 0.3%

Hyundai/Kia $2,132 $3,549 -39.9%

Toyota $2,001 $1,606 24.6%

Honda $1,953 $1,696 15.2%

Industry $2,757 $2,905 -5.1%

 

 

 

Ford are giving you $12,111 (£8100) off on a Ford Focus Coupe Cabriolet at Drivethedeal.com. in the UK at a time when convertible cars attract top $$$ in the British summertime. .

LINK

[weiweishen]

Edmunds forecast

http://www.autoobserver.com/2010/06/june-car-sales-remain-weak-edmundscom-forecasts.html

June car sales will show the auto industry still has not hit high gear due a continued hesitance by consumers to make a long-term commitment to a heft purchase like that of a new vehicle.

 

Edmunds.com forecasts June's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 11.2 million, down from 11.6 million in May, which was a weak month. June sales will total 992,500 vehicles, a 16.6-percent increase from June 2009 but a 9.5 percent decrease from May.

 

"The industry is still recovering from the pull-ahead sales generated in March and over Memorial Day weekend, when automakers - led by Toyota - offered unseasonably high incentives and drew out a lot of bargain-hunters who may otherwise have waited to buy their cars during the summer," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds.com's director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com.

 

June has no special holiday weekend 'sales event,' whereas May has Memorial Day and July has Fourth of July.

 

It also appears some new car shoppers are shifting to lightly used cars, seeking value, which hurts automakers but helps dealers who generally make more money on used cars than new.

 

All of the Big Six automakers -- General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Chrysler and Nissan - will post gains over anemic June 2009 and all will post declines from May.

 

June numbers will show that Toyota continues to struggle. It is the only automaker of the Big Six to post market share declines from a year ago June as well as from May this year. Ford outsold Toyota again this year, making it increasingly likely that Ford will outsell Toyota for the full year, taking back the No. 2 sales spot.

 

Honda's market share is down from a year ago but improved from May. Honda continues to outsell Chrysler.

 

By the Numbers

 

The combined market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors in June is forecasted at 47.3 percent, up from 46.1 percent in June 2009 but down from 47.4 percent in May.

 

Edmunds.com forecasts the following sales and market share by automaker:

 

GM will sell 204,700 vehicles, up 17.2 percent from June 2009 but down 8.4 percent from May for a market share of 20.6 percent, up from 20.5 percent in June 2009 and up from 20.4 percent in May.

 

Ford will sell 174,700 vehicles, up 16.8 percent from June 2009 but down 8.8 percent from May for a market share of 17.6 percent, the same as in June 2009 and up from 17.5 percent in May.

 

Toyota will sell 143,200 vehicles, up 8.9 percent from June 2009 but down 12.0 percent from May for a market share of 14.4 percent, down from 15.4 percent in June 2009 and down from 14.8 percent in May.

 

Honda will sell 108,400 vehicles, up 9.7 percent from June 2009 but down 7.5 percent from May for a market share of 10.9 percent, down from 11.6 percent in June 2009 but up from 10.7 percent in May.

 

Chrysler will sell 90,500 vehicles, up 33.2 percent compared to June 2009 but down 13.5 percent from May for a market share of 9.1 percent, up from 8.0 percent in June 2009 but down from 9.5 percent in May.

 

Nissan will sell 72,800 vehicles, up 24.9 percent from June 2009 but down 13.1 percent from May for a market share of 7.3 percent, up from 6.8 percent in June 2009 but down from 7.6 percent in May.

 

 

Change from June 2009

Change from May 2010

 

Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep)

33.2%

-13.5%

 

Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo)

16.8%

-8.8%

 

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

17.2%

-8.4%

 

Honda (Acura, Honda)

9.7%

-7.5%

 

Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan)

24.9%

-13.1%

 

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

8.9%

-12.0%

 

Industry Total

16.6%

-9.5%

Edited June 28, 2010 by weiweishen

[ANTAUS]

I know Nissan has been catering to high risk, bad credit buyers lately, so their sales should rise quite a bit. Supposedly GM is also wanting to go that route by a recent article I just read....