NickF1011 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Just for the sake of "what ifs" and possibly how volumes could have looked different, I thought I'd throw together some numbers for what things "might be" come 2010 for Ford, or more accurately, what "would have been" had Ford been on the ball with its current offerings. Here's my guestimates on year-to-date volume on what shoulda been....and hopefully will be soon. Cars Crown Victoria: 41,551 On its last legs, but somewhat steady. No significant change to volume. Modified sales: 0 Five Hundred: 55,982 Refreshed with Duratec 35 and bolder sheetmetal. Conservative gain. Modified sales: +15,000 Taurus: 111,922 Would be, should be gone. Modified sales: -111,922 Fusion: 84,701 Will keep steady. Should increase gradually once Taurus is gone and it catches on some. Added coupe?? Modified sales: +15,000 Focus: 111,108 If it were C1 or C2 based or if C170 is significantly revised, slight uptick. Modified sales: +20,000 Mustang: 100,995 Steady as she goes. This one's Ford's baby. Always will be. Modified sales: 0 GT: 1222 Will be gone soon enough. Sure was a beauty while it lasted though. Modified sales: -1222 Added Models (with VERY conservative estimates on sales) B-Car #1 Something similar to the Reflex is likely. Modified sales: +40,000 B-Car #2 More traditional-looking Fiesta-type vehicle Modified sales: +60,000 Total Current Ford Cars: 507,950 Total Modified sales: 544,000 (est) Increase of 7% Trucks Freestyle: 41,417 Slight rise in sales with fresher appearance and D35 Modified sales: +10,000 Escape: 101,509 Possible rebound in sales with refresh, but I'll leave it flat to be on the conservative side. Modified sales: 0 Explorer: 111,493 Likely to see continued declines. Modified sales: -20,000 Expedition: 47,938 Extended wheelbase version should hold sales pretty even, but I still predict softness. Modified sales: -5000 Freestar: 39,883 Good night. Good riddance. Modified sales: -39,883 Econoline/Club Wagon: 104,640 No big changes in store for this one. Modified sales: 0 Ranger: 57,136 What could have been. With a fresh Ranger, it would be rocking still. Modified sales: +30,000 F-Series: 469,159 May shrink some, but not a ton. Another of Ford's babies it won't let rot away. Modified sales: -20,000 Low Cab Forward: 2191 Same ol, same ol. Modified sales: 0 Heavy Trucks: 8083 See above. Modified sales: 0 New Models (Again, estimates are conservative) B-Truck Bronco-type mini-ute Modified sales: +40,000 Edge Should enter the market with a pretty strong and immediate impact. Modified sales: +90,000 People Mover Whatever the Fairlane comes out as, it can't be worse than the Freestar. Modified sales: +60,000 Total Current Ford Trucks: 984,414 Total Modified Sales: 1,100,000 (est) Increase of 11.7% Total Current Ford Brand: 1,492,364 Total Modified Brand Sales: 1,644,000 Total Sales Increase: 10.1% That would put Ford within spitting distance of 2005's YTD sales through July of 1,657,977. Sigh. If only....okay...enough blabbering.... :blah: Any opinions on where my estimates might be under or over-optimistic for the years to come? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 (edited) I think the fusion has the potental to sell at least 120K units alone per year,esp if Ford is looking to keep fleet sales around 15% or so, in comparision to now where 97% of sales are to retail market. Edited August 2, 2006 by silvrsvt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aqeel Mahesri Posted August 7, 2006 Share Posted August 7, 2006 I think the fusion has the potental to sell at least 120K units alone per year,esp if Ford is looking to keep fleet sales around 15% or so, in comparision to now where 97% of sales are to retail market. This is per 7 months. Anyway, I doubt that truck sales will outgrow car sales. That is just very unlikely, even with new crossovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted August 7, 2006 Author Share Posted August 7, 2006 Anyway, I doubt that truck sales will outgrow car sales. That is just very unlikely, even with new crossovers. Well, I was a lot more conservative with my estimates on the B-cars and Fusion than I was with the new trucks. That would probably explain most of the growth gap in my numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadrunner Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 If I read this right, these are 2010 sales. Why is the Taurus poking around still? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wallflower Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Throw a V6 diesel in the Explorer and watch sales zoom to over 300,000 again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 If I read this right, these are 2010 sales. Why is the Taurus poking around still? Taurus: 111,922 Would be, should be gone. Modified sales: -111,922 Reading is fundamental Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Throw a V6 diesel in the Explorer and watch sales zoom to over 300,000 again. Contrary to what you may have read on this board, Ford's executives are not stupid, and they are not trying to bankrupt the company in order to 'fix' the UAW. Ford's management want the company to succeed as much as any dyed in the wool Ford hourly employee on the line. If it were that simple to put an affordable emissions compliant V6 Diesel in the Explorer, Ford would be on it like stink on a monkey. It's just not feasible now. It may be within the next few years, but it is not feasible now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadrunner Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Taurus: 111,922Would be, should be gone. Modified sales: -111,922 Reading is fundamental Oops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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