Why McCain would be a mediocre president

[RaZor]

OK Ranger, you don't see any problem with $15k/mo payments to someone's business for doing absolutely nothing for close to two years (we all know that he wouldn't draw any of that money that his been sitting in company's accounts AFTER the election, right?) under these circumstances. <sometimes it's just better to not try to put a spin on something>

 

Put a spin on this one for us:

Sarah Palin told a customer at a Philadelphia restaurant on Saturday that the United States should "absolutely" launch cross-border attacks from Afghanistan into Pakistan in the event that it becomes necessary to "stop the terrorists from coming any further in," a comment similar to the one John McCain condemned Barack Obama for making during last night's presidential debate.

SOURCE

With all that is happening these days, sometimes we all need a little humor (spins) to offset things, doncha kno'?

[RangerM]

OK Ranger, you don't see any problem with $15k/mo payments to someone's business for doing absolutely nothing for close to two years (we all know that he wouldn't draw any of that money that his been sitting in company's accounts AFTER the election, right?) under these circumstances. <sometimes it's just better to not try to put a spin on something>

 

Excuse me, but....

 

YOU said Davis (himself) received payments in Post #459. This is false.

 

I countered that he did not receive any personal payments, but that the company he worked for (past tense), and does NOT now currently work for, did.

 

And you accuse me of putting a spin on things?

 

I own shares of ExxonMobil. Does that mean I am holding America hostage with high gas prices?

My 401K is through AIG Valic. Does that mean I got a government bailout earlier this week?

(BTW, the answer is no in both cases)

 

I won't attempt to spin what you posted from CBS news.

 

UPDATE: I searched for other sources of this story, and the most credible I found was from a CNN story of a response from the McCain campaign itself, retracting Palin's statement. This was supported by this video of the encounter.

 

What you have here is what is known as a gaffe.

Edited September 28, 2008 by RangerM

[RangerM]

<sometimes it's just better to not try to put a spin on something>

 

Put a spin on this one for us:

 

Now that I've answered you, and while we're focusing on the Vice-Presidential candidates, perhaps you'd like to address:

 

Newsweek: Biden Fires Up the Gaffe-o-Matic

 

On the stump, Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden likes to say that John McCain is disconnected from ordinary Americans. But lately it seems like Biden is the one who's "out of touch"--at least with his own campaign.

 

......But so far, Biden's bloopers have been eclipsed by the planet-sized celebrity phenomenon known to us earthlings as Sarah Palin--a good thing for the body politic, given that most of his mistakes to date have been of the "totally irrelevant but typically distracting" variety.

 

Not anymore. In the past few days--just as Palinsanity has begun to die down--Biden has made a series of strange public statements that suggest he's either at odds with Obama on key policy issues or that he isn't aware of what Obama believes. Individually, they've served to cloud Obama's message on matters of substance; taken together, they suggest that someone in Chicago should give the guy a good talking to. If he or she can get a word in edgewise, that is.

 

Biden's string of slip-ups started last Monday. Asked by NBC's Meredith Vieira whether the Fed should bail out insurance giant AIG, the senator said no: "I don't think they should be bailed out by the federal government." Unfortunately, the remark had more in common with McCain's initial position on the bailout (instinctive opposition) than Obama's carefully cultivated claim that he would not "second-guess" the government. When the bailout went through, both Biden and McCain bowed to reality. But the shift left Obama in a tricky position--as Matt Lauer pointed out this morning on "Today." Noting that Obama had been hitting McCain for flip-flopping on the AIG bailout, Lauer asked the Illinois senator how he could criticize his Republican rival when his own running mate had made the same mistake. His answer? "I think Joe should have waited, as well." Awkward.

 

The past few days have been even worse. Speaking Thursday on ABC's "Good Morning America," Biden not only acknowledged that the wealthy would pay higher taxes if if he and Obama won the White House but said that doing so would be "patriotic." "It's time to be patriotic," he said. "Time to jump in, time to be part of the deal, time to help get America out of the rut." Whether or not you agree with that sentiment, emphasizing that Obama would raise rates on rich folks (instead of saying that he'd lower them on the middle-classes) was clearly off-message--and the "patriotism" sound bite gave the GOP something catchy to hang its "redistribution of wealth" hat on.

 

Feel free to read further, it you wish.

Edited September 28, 2008 by RangerM

[Mark B. Morrow]

Excuse me, but....

 

YOU said Davis (himself) received payments in Post #459. This is false.

 

I countered that he did not receive any personal payments, but that the company he worked for (past tense), and does NOT now currently work for, did.

 

And you accuse me of putting a spin on things?

 

You do seem to be putting a bit more distance than really exists. Davis negotiated the retainer. He doesn't just work for Davis Manifort he owns it.The deal was made because of his connection with McCain. While I wouldn't go so far as to say they were buying influence they certainly expected to get some benefit for their money even if it was just access.

 

I own shares of ExxonMobil. Does that mean I am holding America hostage with high gas prices?

My 401K is through AIG Valic. Does that mean I got a government bailout earlier this week?

(BTW, the answer is no in both cases)

 

There is no comparison to owning stock in a publicly traded corporation and a private firm. If it was RangerMobil the example might be more reasonable.

 

I won't attempt to spin what you posted from CBS news.

 

UPDATE: I searched for other sources of this story, and the most credible I found was from a CNN story of a response from the McCain campaign itself, retracting Palin's statement. This was supported by this video of the encounter.

 

What you have here is what is known as a gaffe.

 

BTW with regard to the Raines issue:

Obama campaign consultant on housing issues, Franklin D Raines, was also a chief executive of Fannie Mae.

Both Raines and the Obama campaign have denied that Ranies was in any way an advisor to the campaign. This was initially reported in the Washington Post but has been denied by both parties. McCain used the Wash Post report as his evidence this morning on Stephanopoulis' Show. I certainly don't think the McCain campaign wants to have disputed newspaper articles serve as a reliable source. Certainly not with all the stories the McCain campaign has denied.

Edited September 29, 2008 by Mark B. Morrow

[RangerM]

You do seem to be putting a bit more distance than really exists. Davis negotiated the retainer. He doesn't just work for Davis Manifort he owns it.The deal was made because of his connection with McCain. While I wouldn't go so far as to say they were buying influence they certainly expected to get some benefit for their money even if it was just access.

I understand where you are coming from, but doesn't separating yourself from your firm to prevent a conflict of interest count for something?

 

Say what you will about McCain (the man), but I think he wants to do the right thing. When presented with evidence of impropriety in the past, he has responded accordingly. I have found McCain trustworthy enough to believe him on this one.

BTW with regard to the Raines issue:

Obama campaign consultant on housing issues, Franklin D Raines, was also a chief executive of Fannie Mae.

Both Raines and the Obama campaign have denied that Ranies was in any way an advisor to the campaign. This was initially reported in the Washington Post but has been denied by both parties. McCain used the Wash Post report as his evidence this morning on Stephanopoulis' Show. I certainly don't think the McCain campaign wants to have disputed newspaper articles serve as a reliable source. Certainly not with all the stories the McCain campaign has denied.

Did some investigating, and the association (with Raines) seems tenuous at best.

 

Given current events, any connection that the opposition can make between a candidate and Freddie/Fannie seems to be the order of the day.

 

Unfortunate, given that it completely ignores the root causes of the problem, and the solution to fixing it, as well as the other issues facing the country in the near- and long-term.

 

But it is we, the electorate, that allows such things to distract us.

[fmccap]

Paulson led bailout of AIG; saved $20 billion for Goldman Sachs

1. Only one Wall Street executive was in the war room, and he was from Goldman Sachs (GS), the firm Paulson headed up before becoming Treasury Secretary.

2. Lehman, with whom GS did not have an overly large trading position, was allowed to go under.

3. AIG, with whom GS did have a large position, was handed an $85 billion handout.

 

At this point I think we're going to have to admit that, at times like these, the revolving door between Wall Street and the Treasury Department is too laden with conflicts of interest to be considered a good idea.

[fmccap]

At the same time, I can say I'm thankful for those that are hesitant to ask every American to write a $2,300 check for this whole deal.

 

I'd really like to know that a government- (ie citizen-) financed deal is the only, or at least the best, option.

Why would they be still going for the bailout if they are taking these actions?

 

Fed takes fresh steps to battle credit crisis

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve and other countries' central banks announced new steps Monday that makes billions of dollars available to squeezed banks here and abroad to battle a worsening credit crisis that threatens to unhinge the U.S. economy.

ADVERTISEMENT

 

 

The Fed said the action is intended to "expand significantly" the cash available to financial institutions in an effort to relieve to the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression. In taking the action, the Fed cited "continued strains" in the demand for short-term funding.

 

Central banks will continue to work closely and are prepared to take "appropriate steps as needed" to ease the crisis and get banks lending again, the Fed said.

[sprinter]

Here is a little something McCain and Bush have in common. The both have aspirations to become dictators. Hey John, wake up. The real conservatives voted against the bailout. And you want to be another Hitler/Mussolini/Sadam/Stalin/Pol Pot/ and cram it up our butts?Watch the video http://www.infowars.com/?p=5005

 

During an interview with the Des Moines Register editorial board yesterday, John McCain - presumably making an attempt at humor - said with a completely straight face that he aspired to be a dictator, while decrying the Congressional rejection of the bailout bill.

 

“I just want to make a comment about the obvious issue and that is the failure of Congress to act yesterday. Its just not acceptable,” said McCain. “This is just a not acceptable situation. I’m not saying this is the perfect answer. If I were dictator, which I always aspire to be, I would write it a little bit differently.”

 

McCain has urged the Bush administration to bypass the will of Congress and invoke executive orders to pass the bailout bill, along with a further $1 trillion dollar spend on buying up bad mortgage debt.

 

McCain’s senior economic advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin has also called on the executive branch to ignore Congress and force through the bailout legislation, which was voted down on Monday.

 

Another senior economic advisor to McCain, Phil Gramm, vice chairman of UBS’s US division and a lobbyist for UBS, successfully pushed for foreign banks to be included in the bailout plan after they were initially excluded.

 

 

 

The fact that McCain said he yearned to be a dictator without so much as cracking a smile makes the comment all the more disturbing especially in comparison to similar sentiments expressed at least three times by George W. Bush.

 

Bush infamously said, “If this were a dictatorship, it would be a heck of a lot easier, just so long as I’m the dictator,” during a December 2000 speech.

 

He also remarked, “A dictatorship would be a heck of a lot easier, there’s no question about it,” in a July 2001 Business Week interview.

 

When Bush was Governor of Texas in 1998 he stated, “You don’t get everything you want. A dictatorship would be a lot easier.”

[RaZor]

I don't equate the two things (gambling and the credit market) outright.

 

Gambling itself, is not the evil, but a gambling addiction is.

 

Credit itself, is not the evil. The misuse and abuse of credit is.

 

I'll say it again. Were it not for the rampant misuse of credit, by unqualified borrowers (enabled by irresponsible mortgage brokers further enabled by Freddie/Fannie), we would not be having this problem.

 

Problems can have many contributing (aggravating) factors, but ultimately there is often one 'root' cause.

Sorry for taking so long to respond. . . .been rather busy.

 

IF you care to see why the analogy of the "gamble" used previously in Post 489, GO HERE for a pretty good (and scary) explanation and, by the way, credit derivatives are not only an American problem. It is really a time bomb that has been ticking for a number of years. Worldwide, in June of this year there were over $680 trillion derivatives traded worldwide.

 

Here is another really good explanation of the problem here using the AIG fiasco

LINK

 

And if you dare, to see the extent of some peeps greed, check this out

 

Gee, I wonder why all of this greed could have gotten out of hand?

[fmccap]

What happened to the anti pork McCain?????????????????

 

He voted for this bill that is full of pork.

[Ron W.]

What happened to the anti pork McCain?????????????????

 

He voted for this bill that is full of pork.

 

Yea the sign of a real Maverick alright, no sence listening to the majority of the people he represents.

 

I'm writing in Ron Paul and so is my mom, she's 82 and fed-up with the status-quo.

[fmccap]

Yea the sign of a real Maverick alright, no sence listening to the majority of the people he represents.

 

I'm writing in Ron Paul and so is my mom, she's 82 and fed-up with the status-quo.

How could Mr. no pork, no earmark McCain vote for this bill????????????????????

 

Tax Earmarks, Pork and Other Bailout Bill Horrors

[RangerM]

How could Mr. no pork, no earmark McCain vote for this bill????????????????????

 

Tax Earmarks, Pork and Other Bailout Bill Horrors

 

Because he believed that the cost of doing nothing was greater than the cost of the pork.

 

In the House (with the pork added), 26 more Republicans voted for it, 32 more Democrats voted for it.

 

Final vote totals in the House:

Democrat 172(y) 63(n)

Republican 91 (y) 108(n)

Edited October 4, 2008 by RangerM

[RangerM]

Yea the sign of a real Maverick alright, no sence listening to the majority of the people he represents.

 

I'm writing in Ron Paul and so is my mom, she's 82 and fed-up with the status-quo.

 

One thing is for sure, with the Obama/Pelosi/Reid triumvirate, you are definitely NOT going to get the status-quo.

 

You should also probably get used to the word malaise.

[fmccap]

Because he believed that the cost of doing nothing was greater than the cost of the pork.

 

In the House (with the pork added), 26 more Republicans voted for it, 32 more Democrats voted for it.

 

Final vote totals in the House:

Democrat 172(y) 63(n)

Republican 91 (y) 108(n)

It didn't mean do nothing, just do something better.

 

Given the spotlight he recieves now what happened to him saying "I will make them famous" about the people who pack pork into these bills? Where was the calling out of this pork and the names of the people who put it into the bill? We didn't hear a peep.

[RangerM]

It didn't mean do nothing, just do something better.

 

Given the spotlight he recieves now what happened to him saying "I will make them famous" about the people who pack pork into these bills? Where was the calling out of this pork and the names of the people who put it into the bill? We didn't hear a peep.

McCain decries bailout earmarks

 

Asked why he voted for the bill, which passed 74-25, if it was “insanity,” McCain said he did it because the country is on the “brink of economic disaster.”

[retro-man]

One thing is for sure, with the Obama/Pelosi/Reid triumvirate, you are definitely NOT going to get the status-quo.

 

You should also probably get used to the word malaise.

Oh, what we're heading into now is going to make the Carter years look like .... well, the Clinton years. In 1979, the last year of the Carter Administration, the unemployment rate was at 5.8%. Can't wait to see what it is by the end of next week. The Architecture firm I used to work for laid off 80 people last week.

 

A few years ago - under my previous handle "niteflight" I think - on a thread where I was arguing the virtues of buy American - with others pointing out to me how ... retro ... I am - that I need to get with the new global economy, and how we were going to prosper in the information age, I said something to the effect that "if we don't protect and promote American manufacturing, someday we'll wake up and discover that we're buying and selling a shitload of jack diddly squat". Well, here we are. Pretty much describes last week's news,, right? Is common sense so hard to come by?

 

A couple of worthy quotes I have heard lately from economists:

- "You can't stop making stuff and expect to maintain your standard of living."

- "If a company (referring to AIG) is so big that it can't be allowed to fail, then it should have been broken up."

 

I also want - in response to the valid criticism that liberal goals of promoting home ownership (to some who may not have been able to afford it) are partly responsible for this crisis - I want to post this link, which was embedded in a different link in some thread: link . This was published in February of 2008. Less than a month later, Eliot Spitzer's prostitution scandal broke in the NYT, marking the end of his political career.

Edited October 5, 2008 by retro-man

[RangerM]

Oh, what we're heading into now is going to make the Carter years look like .... well, the Clinton years. In 1979, the last year of the Carter Administration, the unemployment rate was at 5.8%. Can't wait to see what it is by the end of next week. The Architecture firm I used to work for laid off 80 people last week.

Not to get picky, but.....

 

The last year of the Carter Administration was 1980. Reagan wasn't inaugurated until Jan, 1981.

 

The unemployment rate was 7.0%. Inflation was 13.5%.

Edited October 5, 2008 by RangerM

[fmccap]

Not to get picky, but.....

 

The last year of the Carter Administration was 1980. Reagan wasn't inaugurated until Jan, 1981.

 

The unemployment rate was 7.0%. Inflation was 13.5%.

I'm not getting picky either but, measure those two things using the formula they used back then and see what you come up with. We are already past the Carter years.

[retro-man]

I'm not getting picky either but, measure those two things using the formula they used back then and see what you come up with. We are already past the Carter years.

Thank you for pointing that out.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Lies, Damned Lies, and the Unemployment Rate

The unexpected jump in the unemployment rate to 6.1% was obviously big news. But what is the real unemployment rate?

 

The devil is in the details, or in the case, the definition of "unemployed". And that definition has changed over time, usually for convenient political reasons, with the result that anyone with a historical memory who might compare today's 6.1% rate to historical recessions (such as 1980-81) and find some small comfort that the current unemployment picture still is better by comparison with past recessions would unknowingly be fooling themselves.

 

Better measures of unemployment are available, and they don't paint a comforting picture. The broadest measure of unemployment -- U6 -- now stands at 10.7%, having increased sharply from 9.2% in April of this year.

 

Both the level and rate of increase in real unemployment must be troubling for the McCain campaign, but to judge from the Republican Convention -- which largely ignored economic issues -- they intend to take a "hear no evil / see no evil" approach. Republicans' continued insistence that the economy is fine, based on GDP growth rather the economy as experienced as real people (unemployment, wage growth, etc), only exacerbates the perception that McCain & Co just don't get it. They appear determined to march with Phil Gramm into political oblivion this Fall.

 

Links:

Kevin Phillips on the history of changes to the unemployment rate:

http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2008/Polly...onomy1may08.htm

 

Brad DeLong's post on U6:

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/09/u6.html

 

Official unemployment data from BLS:

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm

 

Another good article by Kevin Phillips: link

Edited October 5, 2008 by retro-man

[fmccap]

Thank you for pointing that out.

No problem. I laugh when people like to look at figures compared to past ones as this example. They like to compare the end results without taking into consideration the differences in calculating it. From what I have seen as an example, SS checks would be 70% larger if they used the same formula they used then. It's all about the politicians getting what they want anyway they can.

[TStag]

Ha ha ha, I can't believe you guy's are seriously contemplating voting in Sarah Palin as VP for your country. Now she's pratically calling Obama a terrorist. Maybe because in her little brain Obama rhymes with Osama! She claims to be about "change" but such tactics are very old school. So old school I doubt anyone else would get that dirty nowadays. Just think if Mcain get's elected and has a heart attack in all the excitement. Sarah Palin (one time Alsaka independance supporter) could be president. Maybe the Whitehouse will be moved to Alaska. That way she could look out the window and check the Russians aren't invading!!!! Is she George Bush's sister?

[RangerM]

Thank you for pointing that out.

 

Per your last link, the unemployment rate (U6) was worse in January, 1994 (12.4% vs. a current 10.6%).

 

U6 peaked during the Carter years at about 10%. Around 1982, it peaked at 13.5%. (numbers are approximated from a table from the following link.)

[RangerM]

Ha ha ha, I can't believe you guy's are seriously contemplating voting in Sarah Palin as VP for your country.

 

And I can't believe you'd vote for a guy who thought lending to people who couldn't afford it was a good idea, and sued to force Citibank to lend to them under the charge of racism, and here's another link from a non-partisan source, if it makes you feel better..

Edited October 5, 2008 by RangerM

[retro-man]

Per your last link, the unemployment rate (U6) was worse in January, 1994 (12.4% vs. a current 10.6%).

 

U6 peaked during the Carter years at about 10%. Around 1982, it peaked at 13.5%. (numbers are approximated from a table from the following link.)

Yeah - but I've never seen the kind of truly apocalyptic discussion around one of these incidents that I'm seeing this time - and I've been through a few of them. Nor have I ever been concerned about losing my own livelihood as I am this time. Even my wife, who has been management level at her company for 27 years, is worried about layoff. If we both lose our jobs, we can keep the house for maaaaybe a year. If this turns out to be the magnitude of the Great Depression, that may not be enough.

 

The fundamental issues underlying this: our lack of real productivity, our deficits (trade and spending), the exploding paper economy and manipulation of data that masked this - out of the desire to acquire and cling to power - still stand.