jpd80

Total US domestic Mach E inventory is now over 24, 000 with 16,500 already at dealers… https://fortune.com/2023/12/07/electric-vehicle-sales-growth-slows-rapidly-2023-ford-gm-white-house-goals/ So you see that behind the curtain, things are going off course, they’re either building a lot of dealer stock or a lot of customer orders have fallen over….

Ford goes silent on sales when things don’t go to plan……. There’s a reason why Ford doesn’t mention European Mach E sales this year… It’s a great vehicle but it’s not selling well against the Tesla Y……. Ford has also given up on Mach E in China as the monthly sales are in the hundreds,

And that was the thing Ford maintained with the launch of the 2.7 Ecoboost in F150 - the take rate on that engine option alone was close to 15,000 sales a month while the diesel was always well under 3,000 a month. I suspect the reason Ford didn’t advertise it was that it simply cut into existing sales instead of growing new ones. The diesel option in Transit was something like $6,000 and I don’t think many buyers saw the need for the diesel, not with that kind of premium anyway. It’s just easier to maintain a gasoline fleet with things like lighter vans.

Currently, there’s over 6,700 Lightnings at dealerships nationwide and if sales don’t keep climbing above 4,400, they’re going to start piling up with more chance of incentives being needed to move them..

Mach E national dealer stock is now just under 16,000. vehicles, it’s gaining about a thousand a month. Incentives are the next step and if that doesn’t work, Ford will have to think hard about Mach E’s future.

At the moment, Ford is making some mighty big assumptions with truck buyer likes and dislikes regarding T3 BEV, so I’m left wondering if Ford is still trying to work two sides of the street, attracting both ICE truck buyers but also people who are maybe first time truck buyers. So the T3 design and styling may be more about enticing a different group of buyers without ruining gas truck sales prematurely. i don’t know the answer but maybe Ford doesn’t either but they have to try to find out and maybe T3 gives them good enough sales to gauge the mood and preferences of those buyers.

The strike at Kentucky Truck Plant meant that F Series sales were down about 13,000 sales which hurts profit

T150 & T250 effectively replaced E150 & E250 which is why Ford felt the E Series was in no man’s land especially after customers eagerly embraced Transit. T150 up exceed upper weight limit for CAFE but the was also a significant upgrade to heavy duty fuel efficiency improvement (10%?) which the E150 would struggle to get…it was something along those lines - the Transit was more efficient. The issue with Transit Custom was that it fell in CAFE Territory and had higher pricing that TC, North American competition for it was scarce on the ground because no one wanted the ‘tweeter.

Of course but my point was the amazingly low price of Maverick compared to Bronco Sport and Escape, the EB is replaces larger atmo engine like a V6 /V8 that’s impractical under CAFE /C2 design/ just don’t want to do. Not apologising for Ford here - I’m shocked that it took them so long to figure out an affordable compact pickup, that everything doesn’t have to be an either/or choice, they forgot all about how to make affordable derivatives……

The reason Ford was testing the smallest Transit Custom was as a replacement for Transit Connect, it makes sense to offer a roomy van that’s not much bigger than the LWB TC, things that buyers want? If that’s so, then North America May just import ones that don’t compete with RWD Transit.

I wonder if some sort of turbo CNG set up is possible with the 6.7 Powerstroke, or whether that is even viable now? It may be easier to pursue forced induction with the 7.3, just a thought…. Remember that dual fuel high boost set up Ford was developing with MIT, used E85 through the DI for detonation suppression and regular ULP through the PFI

Even though NOX limits are higher with Euro VI, diesels are now compelled to use Adblue and SCR, so the level of NOX is most likely way under that. We can thank VW ‘dieselgate’ for proving that the alternative NOX trap and software they used was ineffective. I guess a one door closes on technology, another opens……

At that is moment, national dealer stock of Mach E has risen to just over 15,400, pits been bumping up about 1,000 a month for the last three months or so… Seriously, if buyers were interested, dealers would be moving a lot more vehicles than they are.. I think it’s everything and not just one thing, prices, bad press on Mach E problems, interest rates, talk of reducing tax credits, prices and dealer mark ups - all have contributed to the current apathy? maybe it’s just easier for folks to go buy a Tesla Y and avoid all the ‘pain’ that comes with owning a Ford.

Maybe Ford is trying to push the 2.0 EB, it still has a big price advantage over BS and Escape which start up near $30,000

Valve body defects (Chinese castings)…….similar to some of the 10-speed auto issues.

Higher lithium costs have given manufacturers a hard time over the past couple of years but recently, prices are returning to previous lower levels. Hopefully that has a flow on effect with easing price pressure into 2024. The hybrid Maverick was a great entry level product that buyers embraced, it worked but Ford now knows that buyers regard fuel efficiency as a basic standard of vehicles, not a premium option. Could this also be contributing to the resistance with BEVs, buyers don’t like paying up front for future fuel savings? Whatever, there’s a bit of complex psychology going on here, the key is unlocking the answer…

The new Ranger hybrid will ultimately replace the V6 diesel in Row Markets, the prices that Ford is getting for Ranger and Everest in places like Australia make it a night profit vehicle, they’re asking similar to F150 4x4 crew cab prices. In ROW markets, Toyota sells Hilux which is really showing its age against Ranger and I wonder if Toyota can afford to replace it with a global Tacoma, the new hybrid engine is interesting but I suspect it’s a no show until Toyota wants to leave Hilux behind… Remembering that the real reason that Ford is trying to push affordable hybrids is to stay in front of CAFE so it can continue building whatever model range that buyers want. Something like the 2.3 EB hybrid while sounding like it’s all for the customer is more about offering a guilt free experience without having to put a coyote V8 in it, you get to have your cake and eat it too. Yes, done properly, all of them can exist side by side on the showroom. There’s a kind of new era cohesion in that plan…

I’ve mentioned before but perhaps a short wheelbase Transit Custom makes more sense to Ford now that Ford Europe’s Transit Connect is being supplied by VW (Caddy based). Whatever Ford decides, it’s great to have options with the vans, something that flies under the radar?

Just following on from the above thoughts, I wonder if Ford builds a new BEV Transit Custom as well as a new, larger E-Transit that covers larger Transit and E Series. Between Them, those two designs would cover just about every sized van required in North America.

A bit of knowledge helps here, most of the lost sales are Super Duty and due to strike at Kentucky Truck. Roughly, down about 13,000 SDs. By my estimate, there’s about 46,000 F150 sales so a quarter of that is about 11,500, so less 4,400 Lightning is about 7,000 hybrids. A rough thumbnail of figures but enough info to give some idea…..

https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North America/US/2021/12/02/ford-sales-21-november.pdf So glad that Mach E sales recovered to 4,294 F Series total sales down to 53,069, a consequence of the strike action?

Absolutely agree Ford was all over the place, increasing the base price by up to 50% and then taking off $10,000 earlier this year followed by improved tax credits….You're right, anyone new to F Trucks hoping to get a cheap $40k BEV has gone. Interestingly, Tesla has done similar with its original $39,990 base CT, that’s now a $57k RWD coming in 2025. While Lightning has lost 200k of reservations, I have a feeling that Cybertruck’s 1.3 million reservations might be about to evaporate even quicker now that orders are open…It’s put up or shut up time and we’ve seen this all before with the Tesla 3 launch. Back then, buyers wanting the bas $36k RWD that Tesla just didn’t want to build were pushed down the queue until they ordered a higher spec or quit the program. The golden rule of sales is, don’t disappoint your buyers by misleading them with undeliverable prices.

4,400 sales is great news for the Lightning, I’m happy that sales continue increasing even if at a slower rate. Perhaps Ford’s original projections on sales was truly accurate before it was distracted by the 200k reservations… Maybe by the time BOC opens, sales of BEV F150 will be up to 12,000-15,000/ month…. Currently, there’s just over 6,700 Lightnings available at Ford dealers, so great opportunity for walk in sales..

Yeah, Ford tends to be lazy ass and usually avoids what it sees as multiple options to buyers, just offer one and take the win form doing less - something picked up from Mulally. What is being missed is that adding variety is not necessarily added complexity, it’s easy additional sales in a well thought out plan.

Now that Lithium price is falling, Ford should reduce price, yes? This all tracks back to Hackett thinking battery supply wasn’t a big issue for Ford its taking them years to get even the basics right….