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jpd80

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jpd80 last won the day on December 26 2020

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About jpd80

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  1. JMC heavy trucks was selling rebranded Cargos
  2. Regardless of battery range, the rules assume the worst case, that PHEV owners drive with a discharged battery or in charge sustain mode, both of which jack up fuel consumption and emissions. No amount of battery range will overcome the assumption embedded in the rules.
  3. jpd80

    Ford Inventory Discussion

    That’s not surprising considering that the chip shortage has been going on most of this year, people trying to buy new cars this year have been living with the reality that a specific order may be months away and grabbing something close in dealer inventory is really their best choice for now. How weird is this, dealers asking full price for almost anything they have yet seeing sales evaporate as supply of vehicles dries up, some would be wondering what next.....
  4. jpd80

    Ford Inventory Discussion

    Correct, for roughly seven years now Sync 3 has been based on BlackBerry QNX. Our friend does not understand the huge transformation going on at Ford, let alone the $3 billion profit in Q1, we all know why Q2 will be dreadful for most players but at least Ford is trying to contain losses by selling down its inventory......if all those inventory builds were as bad as our friend implies, Ford wouldn’t be staring at a quickly emptying cupboard.
  5. Precisely, hybrids and PHEVs are the perfect outlet for amortising battery development costs while rolling out cutting edge tech in BEVs. Tesla is dedicated BEV, so there’s no opportunity to write down those development costs as quickly as Ford or GM. I actually look forward to how Ford balances progress on technology, bringing ICE/hybrids and their profits along at the same time as all the new BEVs in the latter half of this decade.
  6. jpd80

    Ford Inventory Discussion

    Sorry, I missed your post from a while back but here’s my thoughts, Ford and it’s dealers have a pretty good idea on what vehicles make for good fast moving inventory that doesn’t sit on lots for very long, they know by research and dealer feedback which are popular trim and options combinations that they can move. Dealers love people to come see products at showrooms because they know that the chance of buy right now impulse sale depends on an emotional connection forming between buyer and vehicle, you don’t get that as much with an online sale but more importantly, sales staff talking to buyers means an opportunity to explore buyer’s desires and if another trim or another vehicle would work better. With regards to customer orders vs building to dealer stock, I think it was Jim Hackett that tried to get faster delivery times for customer orders only to run into problems with production line scheduling due to longer lead times on supplier parts - Ford gets big reduction by signing up for years with a defined ordering profile that’s not supposed to vary in short lead times, some change is possible but I hear that Prioritising customer orders outside of certain build profiles is a real headache. Your Transit Connect dilemma is one shared by many other Ford buyers wanting certain vehicle types and frustrated by the price. I think that you and others are fighting against a well established wall of premium pricing that’s prepared to forgo easy sales of lower trims or even heavy discounts of higher trim levels, a stance driven no by more sales -more revenue but by a set return expectation on revenue. Thats a hard wall to penetrate.
  7. Battery makers also have a vested interest in milking the Max out of existing lithium battery tech, they learned a valuable lesson after NiMH tech was launched early and displaces NiCad batteries causing many battery suppliers to take a hit on development costs. In saying that, it only takes one supplier to switch to solid state / new chemistry and all the others would be forced to follow. GM and Tesla will probably force through solid state in a few years time or maybe a half step between..... Better batteries are needed, lighter, cheaper, faster charging, enough range.
  8. jpd80

    Ford Inventory Discussion

    At the moment, you’re probably going to get bypassed by other people who are prepared to pay close to MSRP, Transit Connect is sourced from outside USA and those areas are also experiencing chip shortages so the same squeeze on supply, inventory and pricing but is that really the case? May 1 inventory of Transit Connect was 6,200 (50 days supply) that’s dealers and Ford holding yards so there was plenty of them.
  9. The cost of producing ICE powered vehicles that remain CAFE and emissions compliant is now dependent upon manufacturers like Ford producing and selling sufficient numbers of hybrids and BEVs. Their plan is to keep ICE trucks and large Utilities for as long as possible to milk as much profit as possible. To that end, the hybrids and BEVs we’ll see this decade will move the needle just enough to prepare everyone for a second major shift early next decade when battery density and charge rates will finally make ICEs and hybrids redundant.
  10. jpd80

    Ford Inventory Discussion

    I’m surprised that some dealers haven’t started charging over the MSRP.....
  11. Most of us are smart enough to know that battery evolution will go in leaps and bounds as battery producers see more returns from increased volume, that is essential to the majority of the market taking BEV seriously as a Nona fide replacement for ICE across all the major vehicle types. When they get the mix of deliverables right, the customers will come, I just don’t see that as yet and the premium pricing backs that up.
  12. jpd80

    Ford Inventory Discussion

    Yep and at the moment national dealer stock on hand is F Series.........................27,000 Chevrolet Silverado.......18,000 GMC Sierra..".."................8,000 Ram trucks...................36,000 none of them have anywhere near enough
  13. On topic, I’m skeptical about BEV sales rising as quickly as expected, we may well see gasoline and diesel power survive on the back of the lower cost, more practical hybrid an PHEV option that keeps the cost of fuel under control while also cutting emissions from ICEs in the least efficient parts of the driving cycle.
  14. Some facts not immediately apparent with those charts is the massive growth in manufacturing that has taken place in China over the past 30 years that mirrors a decline in manufacturing in the US and Europe. Sure, it’s by no means a zero sum game as China now does massive amounts of production for itself as well as the rest of the world. China also has built up the wealth and size of its middle class to roughly 707 million people or more than double the USA’s entire population.
  15. jpd80

    Ford Inventory Discussion

    Ford inventory May 1 2021 F Series.....................84,900 Anyone following F Series inventory will know that in normal times it’s roughly 230k-250k. Given how many are stored without ECUs, this is looking pretty ugly as far as May sales are looking. Hopefully, more chips are inbound soon as plant ramps up production.
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