June 2007 Large Car Sales

[suv_guy_19]

Really? Which ones do you think they actually do something different in? Maybe the Edge "bastard" of a Chrysler Pacifica?

 

How'd that work out for DCX(?)... and hows it working out for Ford? Then look at the 500/Taurus. A brilliant move if you consider losing 250K unit sales ( and pouring $Billions into multiple sales duds ) to be good management.

 

whats wrong with the edge....and what are you trying to say different....

[Hemiman]

As oil climbs higher, the very durable and dependable Crown Victoria will be seen as a bygone relic.

Ford have already said the will only keep it around as long as fleets want it so what has changed in the past 6 months?

The coming CAFE regulations.

 

We're starting to see the shift with Taxis in New York, the dependable CNG Crown Victorias are being replaced by

Hybrids which excel at traffic crawl paces. Although Ford could build a hybrid panther, no such notion is entertained.

 

I seriously doubt that governmnet departments will want to be seen as duplicitous in so far as

legislating for much tighter fuel efficiency and then buying the largest V8 sedan Ford builds.

Once Chrysler or GM come forward with a much more fuel efficient police package, it's all over for the Crown Victoria.

 

It's ironic that the very thing that made the Crown Victoria a survivor will now be seen as it's

main undoing, The last of the giant cars will make way for a more efficient package.

 

Of course the fact that it's the only Ford car that can accept the 3.6/4.4 V-8 Diesel with nothing more than motor mount changes may give it an advantage in this environment.

[Edstock]

Once Chrysler or GM come forward with a much more fuel efficient police package, it's all over for the Crown Victoria.

 

And why can't Ford build a more fuel efficient CV if Chrysler or GM come forward with a much more fuel efficient police package?

 

Just upgrading to the 3-v engine and 6-speed transmission will help considerably. Then there's the Twin Force 3.5, with its fuel efficiency.

 

Chances are it might be possible to shave some weight off the body as well.

 

Then, in 2010-11, or so, they could also use the new small diesel that debuts in the next F-150.

[Traveler]

Ford needs to be able to address several shortcomings of the Panther platform to extend its life:

 

1. They need to figure out a way to keep these vehicles from depreciating so rapidly.

2. They need to an engine/tranny combo that can rival the Chrysler LX cars.

3. They need more efficiency with that horsepower...or at least about the same.

4. They need to update the exterior/interiors of the cars.

5. They need to address the fuel tank issue.

 

All of those are real problems with the Panthers...or are perceived troublesome issues. There's a problem when a car that has a MSRP of $30,000 loses $8,000 when you drive it off the lot. There's a problem when your closest competitor can produce 100 more horsepower and 100 lb.ft. of torque more than your car...while being rated with the same fuel mileage. There's a problem when your styling is not well received by anyone outside of enthusiasts, old people, or cops. There's a problem when the fuel tanks have been given a tremendous amount of negative press.

 

I, for one, likes these cars. The newer Panthers are very well designed cars. Everything tucked underneath the sheetmetal is a fine example of Ford engineering. Its the outside and the interior that is partially responsible for putting more buyers off. Next, fix the fuel tank issue. How much would it cost to do a Kelvar lining around a urethane tank instead of an exposed metal tank. The cops get the tank shields but is that even enough and where are the shields for the civilian cars?

 

I feel that Ford can keep their base buyers happy if they could address these issues and figure out a way to get a sliver of full size buyers to look at these cars. However, Ford's apparent direction lies on a different path. I firmly believe it is Ford's intent to keep polishing the Taurus, Sable and MKS until the Panther buyers are either convinced to buy one, moved on to Chrysler or simply die. Perhaps they are not even interested in law enforcement any longer or maybe they think the Taurus will suffice. We shall see, but I can say that I don't think the Panther will be around in 5 years.

 

Its similar in way to what they tried to do with the Mustang. Mustang sales were spiraling downward and the Probe was to be the next Mustang. Ford wanted to ditch a legendary RWD platform for a new Mazda FWD platform. Lo and behold, here they are now trying to kill off another RWD platform and this time for a Volvo platform. I will not be surprised to see the Mustang's head on the chopping block in the future, if sales slow. Ford will be all to ready with a FWD Mazda platform yet again to assume the position of coupe. Simply said, I really don't think Ford likes building RWD cars.

[matthewq4b]

There is no fuel tank issue on the Panthers.

Wish every one would get that already.

 

They have always met and now exceed the govt standards for this. The only reason it became an issue is cause these cars are subject to more high speed rear end collision's than any other car out there.

 

No car currently made is tested to 75 MPH in rear end collisions with out fuel tank rupture except the panthers.

 

Also test have proven that the CV was less septable to rupture and fire than all other cars used by PD agency's.

 

The big question is, is not weather the Panthers are relevant. But weather the full size rwd market is viable period.

 

The short answer to that question is yes.

 

LX cars are selling near 10K units a month retail . So there is obviously a market.

 

Want to get around CAFE then test the cars to truck durability standards and classify them as light trucks. Hey worked for the Magnum. And no one will say the Panthers are not more durable than the LX Cars.

This may fly if Ford keeps them BOF as the only other other vehicles out there that are BOF are trucks.

 

The Panthers will be around for a few years yet, they did not move the TC to STAP to get just one or 2 more model years out of it just to recover the costs of the move. As long as they are turning a profit they will be made. And with STAP at just one shift and with all the R&D and equipment to make them long paid for and no advertising budget to speak of, numbers are going to have to get really low befor they become a non money making venture.

The CV is basically guaranteed 40K PI sales a year for the foreseeable future. And anouther 15K or so fleet sales for at least the next 4 years. Ford has forcibly cut the production of the TC to almost half of the actual demand. Those numbers alone are still well in the profit making range. and does not include the GM even.

 

The Panthers have the Sword of Damocles hanging over them. If profits drop they are gone that fast.

 

The big question is will Ford even replace them? And if so with what? If it is a Unit car Ford will have just lost any edge they had over the others with the Panthers. And if it is with a BOF car will they even be able to build it light enough to meet CAFE and be durable in severe service ? The CAFE issue can be addressed with classifying them as trucks or offering a diesel. Most all PD"s would jump at the diesels. As they would more than recover the additional cost in fuel savings.

 

Every one here has been say the Panthers will be cut soon. In 2004 it was 2006 in 2006 it was 2008 Instead we ended up with a consolidation of the lines. Now the it is 2010. It will more than likely be 2012 when they are gone. I predict by that time sales will be low enough that it will not be a money maker. And stranger things have happened. Maybe the CV will carry on as a PD vehicle only not available to the public at all. STAP could be flexed to to handle both the CV and a Unit RWD. Some of the existing equipment in STAP can be retained for a unit car.

 

With Jag gone Ford is-will be able to concentrate more efforts in to Lincoln and most likely move it up scale. If that is the case (which is likely) Lincoln will need to have a Full size RWD car simple as that.

 

STAP is a big facility and is not nearly utilized to the fullest. It has operational cost advantages over it's U.S counter parts as well in regards to labour costs. Also the Canadian Govt's are more willing to cough up cash to insure plants remain open. We seen that most recently with Oakville.

 

No one knows for sure when the Panthers will be gone, Including Ford. As they are running them year to year. As soon as numbers drop below profitability the sword will drop.

 

No sense in making predictions now as the panthers retirement has been discussed here for years and years and we are still doing it now. Long ofter every thing else has been retired or replaced.

 

If some one told ya in 98 that the Panthers would still be being made in 2008 as is you would have told them they were nuts. Who knows may be we will discussing this still in 2018

 

 

Matthew

[jpd80]

Matthew,

Maybe we can switch one to Hydrogen.

You want I should bring over a case or two of beer and a hose.

[Traveler]

There is no fuel tank issue on the Panthers.

Wish every one would get that already.

 

 

My point was does the general public have that understanding? Now, I don't think that the fuel tank stories really hurt the Panther sales that much, however I would imagine that some buyers were put off by the negative publicity.

 

The news media certainly didn't put any positive spin on the issue. Plus, the thing is the shields come standard on the Interceptor but remain off the record for any civilian to add it as an option. Does the shield truly make a difference on the Interceptor? If the stringent testing is done with the shields in place, then the civilan Panthers results are not necessarily the same as the Interceptor, even if it has the same frame. The shield is now offered on limos, but not made available to private buyers.

[NickF1011]

I think it's all moot at this point anyway. The Taurus outsold the Crown Vic in June. I doubt we'll ever see a reversal of that. Taurus is going to be a good seller to the retail market, a place where the Panthers can no longer compete. Sure, a few blue-hairs still pick up a Grand Marquis and Town Car now and then, but those markets are shrinking. Grand Marquis will falter when Sable volume gets ramped up and the MKS will undoubtedly be the death knoll of the Town Car.

[matthewq4b]

I think it's all moot at this point anyway. The Taurus outsold the Crown Vic in June. I doubt we'll ever see a reversal of that. Taurus is going to be a good seller to the retail market, a place where the Panthers can no longer compete. Sure, a few blue-hairs still pick up a Grand Marquis and Town Car now and then, but those markets are shrinking. Grand Marquis will falter when Sable volume gets ramped up and the MKS will undoubtedly be the death knoll of the Town Car.

 

 

I do not doubt what you are saying Nick but it maybe wise to wait a bit befor making these kind of statements. As I recall there was a whole host of similar claims made about the 500 by several here.

And they ended up with egg on their face in the end.

 

The Gas tank shield used in the CV's is primarily for protection of the gas tank from pointy objects in the trunk of the car. And to surpass a 75 MPH rear end collision. Things like warning triangles and the such have a tendency to pierce the trunk then fuel tank when these cars are hit from behind at hwy speeds. The PI's have an optional stowage tray for the trunk to keep the numerous items most highway patrol cars carry in the truck in place.

 

I hear more about the panther gas tanks here than any where else. Ford proved that they are safe. And the public is aware of this. You have to remember most consumers have the attention span of a gnat. This now old news and been forgotten about by the public at large. and those that are in the market for these cars know better any way.

 

Every one seems to under estimate the market for full size RWD cars. Chryco came out with the first new one in well over a decade and sales took off like a rocket and and are still strong. If Ford had pulled this off every one would cheering the return of the Full size rwd segment. But some how it is over looked here cause Chryco did it

 

In all reality it never disappeared it was just ignored.

 

 

Full size rwd cars will always have had have high fleet numbers and always will.

This is a double edged sword.

 

It means the cars have a lower resale value compared to other segments.

But they also do not need ground up redesigns every 5 years. But solider on for years with the same basic structure as the fleet buyers are not really concerned about have the latest and newest trends.

The current panthers are proof positive of that.

 

This does allow the manufacture that much longer to amortize the cost of the initial R&D and production set up of these vehicles .

 

Will they be number one sellers ? Never again will the full size sedan be the number one cars of choice for the NA consumer. And has not been since the introduction of decent mid sized FWD's

But to say that there is no market or such and such vehicle will out them is rather short sighted and just rather stupid.

 

The question that has to be asked is there enough market to support new ones profitably.

 

The market is there no question but can the cars be built to turn a decent profit

This is a guessing game right now and Ford knows this plus they have more pressing concerns. The segment is no with out risks and that is some thing they can not chance on right now so the panthers solider on.

 

The only way a new full size RWD is going to be really profitable is it has to have a minimum of ten years plus longevity in the basic structure drive-line and green house with out major over hauls.

But this also means a massive investment. As you are going to have build a car that is going to attract new customers be expandable to handle new tech and be extremely durable to retain the current 150K sales. That is not going to be a cheap investment by any stretch of the imagination.

Making sure the cars can be a decade long or longer production will allow ample time to recover the initial investment and show some really decent $ numbers.

 

You can not build a flash in the pan.

 

Ford will need anouther RWD car . They will get the bulk of the current panthers sales by default with a new car. Lincoln is going to need a flag ship and the MKS will not do it. I liken the new MKS to the FWD Conti both cars appeal to different buyers even if they are close in size. FWD still has not totally shaken that econobox image. RWD cars are still linked to performance and luxury.

 

 

There is market still for these cars and will be for the foreseeable future.

 

Matthew

[mettech]

Reality:

 

The current Ford car line-up is reason Ford is losing market share.

 

Producing new world class products with little or no rebates will the the only solution that will save Ford. Until then, expect to continue to lose market shares.

 

If BMW, M-B, Cadillac is able to produce RWD cars that don't go mostly to fleet sales, so can Ford/Lincoln/Mercury.

Edited July 11, 2007 by mettech

[NickF1011]

Reality:

 

The current Ford car line-up is reason Ford is losing market share.

 

Producing new world class products with little or no rebates will the the only solution that will save Ford. Until then, expect to continue to lose market shares.

 

If BMW, M-B, Cadillac is able to produce RWD cars that don't go mostly to fleet sales, so can Ford/Lincoln/Mercury.

 

90% of Ford's market share woes are now due almost solely to limiting fleet sales. Ford actually GREW its retail market share in June for the first time in who knows how long. So the product really isn't that far off now. It's just going to look awful for the remainder of this year while we compare sales to last year's monthly numbers that had a glut of fleet sales in the mix (20,000 Tauruses anyone?). If Ford can hold the line on retail sales through the rest of the year, or heaven forbid, even see a slight rise, I think their long term outlook seems a lot better.

[Ford Jellymoulds]

Lincoln is the hero, Jaguar is the zero for Ford, despite having investing over 12 billions in Jaguar only 1410 sales, l don't no how many billions profit will be put back in the Ford piggy bank from Jaguar sales last month?

 

Junes sales figure for every manufacurer in the US says it all, what more is there to say.

Ford should start turn around next year, l just wish it was a bit more product let like Fiats massive improvement which was not done by shutting down car plants.

 

http://www.autoblog.com/2007/07/03/by-the-numbers-june-2007/