Oil=$100 dollars a barrel by the end of 2008

[silvrsvt]

This should do wonders for the economy and everything else...

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/100_oil_outlook.html?.v=1

[Pioneer]

http://www.blueovalforums.com/forums/index...showtopic=16966

[Stentgraft95]

This should do wonders for the economy and everything else...

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/100_oil_outlook.html?.v=1

 

I agree it will do wonders for the economy.

 

This whole oil game has played havic to the economy and it's just a game. A game of fear and intimidation. We (the U.S.) capped perfectly fine oil wells starting in the late 70's and we're playing the game of "hey let's use the the rest of the worlds oil first" and it's nothing more than greed. Greed of the U.S. oil companies and the wonderful world of capitalism taking money from our pockets and putting it in theirs and all in the name of fear.

 

The reality is that this will wreck our economy as the focus continues to shift to Asia as they become the worlds consumers replacing the good ole U.S. of A. We will look like old Europe within our life time.

[UltimateX]

Lets not forget that the dollar seems to be in free fall, and oil for the most part is an import. Seems the dollar is barely worst the paper it is written on these days. This is at least true on the international markets.

[ShockFX]

This should do wonders for the economy and everything else...

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/100_oil_outlook.html?.v=1

 

Yeah, and other analysts say $50 oil in 2008, if it was guaranteed to be $100 in 2008 it would already be at $100 a barrel.

[Stentgraft95]

Lets not forget that the dollar seems to be in free fall, and oil for the most part is an import. Seems the dollar is barely worst the paper it is written on these days. This is at least true on the international markets.

 

 

Good point

 

Another way we're getting the old ram-rod thrown to us.

[Admiral]

^^^ We've essentially reached parity with the Canadian dollar. Sad indeed.

[suv_guy_19]

^^^ We've essentially reached parity with the Canadian dollar. Sad indeed.

 

 

well, its not all because of the fall of your dollar, ours has been on the rise lately. Why is that sad, because your down to our level.....

 

A land of vast distances and rich natural resources, Canada became a self-governing dominion in 1867 while retaining ties to the British crown. Economically and technologically the nation has developed in parallel with the US, its neighbor to the south across an unfortified border.

 

As an affluent, high-tech industrial society in the trillion-dollar class, Canada resembles the US in its market-oriented economic system, pattern of production, and affluent living standards. Since World War II, the impressive growth of the manufacturing, mining, and service sectors has transformed the nation from a largely rural economy into one primarily industrial and urban. The 1989 US-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (which includes Mexico) touched off a dramatic increase in trade and economic integration with the US. Given its great natural resources, skilled labor force, and modern capital plant, Canada enjoys solid economic prospects. Top-notch fiscal management has produced consecutive balanced budgets since 1997, although public debate continues over how to manage the rising cost of the publicly funded healthcare system. Exports account for roughly a third of GDP. Canada enjoys a substantial trade surplus with its principal trading partner, the US, which absorbs about 85% of Canadian exports. Canada is the US' largest foreign supplier of energy, including oil, gas, uranium, and electric power.

 

...thats from The World Factbook, so why is it sad....

Edited October 3, 2007 by suv_guy_19

[suv_guy_19]

^^^ We've essentially reached parity with the Canadian dollar. Sad indeed.

 

 

Besides, a low dollar will do the US some good. So what if our dollar is worth more than yours? It doesn't change all that much for you, and in the long run it will help your economy.

[LincolnFan]

Holy light, oil is about to hit $100 and I am not seeing anything different around here...

 

WHERE DOES THE MONEY FROM THESE BARRELS GO TO?!

[matthewq4b]

Besides, a low dollar will do the US some good. So what if our dollar is worth more than yours? It doesn't change all that much for you, and in the long run it will help your economy.

 

 

Not sure how a lower U.S dollar is going to help them to be honest, the U.S is a net consumer. Weather it is manufactured goods or raw resources. It will mean the cost of said items will rise in the U.S. But it may have a flip side. It also means that the profit spread of said imported items is much narrower. It may spur some manufacturing states side. The only thing that kept Canada from going completely tits up after the Free trade agreements were signed was our low dollar. As it just decimated the manufacturing sector in Central Canada the low dollar saved what little was left.

 

Our dollar has been under valued for years if not the better part of a decade. It is only recently that it is being traded on the market near it's correct actual value. I still think it is under valued as is. We have a strong economy that is still ramping up. Most provinces are running Budget surpluses a couple are net debt free. And Canada it's self is the only large First nation that is not running national budget deficits.

We are also the only large First nation that is paying down our national debt and not increasing it.

 

I mean come on, no one actually believed the U.S was going to be able to continue on with the massive budget short falls that they have been with out consequences.

 

 

 

Matthew

[matthewq4b]

Holy light, oil is about to hit $100 and I am not seeing anything different around here...

 

WHERE DOES THE MONEY FROM THESE BARRELS GO TO?!

 

I think what is happing is OPEC is and is going to scale back production to keep prices high.

They know their days are numbered of being able to have the last say on world oil prices. The amount of Oil they are providing NA falls every year. But they are maintaining the same dollars of revenue. They are going to drive the price of oil as high as they can while they can, till they lose absolute control of world oil pricing. Cause when they do lose absolute control of it their Oil revenues are going to bottom right out.

 

Canada is gearing up big time for major Oil Production when the CNRL facility goes fully on line it alone will have a Million barrel a day capacity. And there are several more similar projects in the works.

 

There are over 140,000 square miles (An area twice the size of the state of Florida) of Oil Sands in Alberta Alone. (There is even more Oil Sand in Sask). And there is Oil sand in Manitoba B.C the Yukon and the NWT.

 

OPEC Knows in not to distant Future we (Canada) will be a major driving Force behind World Oil prices.

 

The latest Oil Sand tech is proving to yield over Twice the expected Oil than was predicted. A temporary Pilot Project has turned in to long term Full use facility cause of this. And it costs sevral times less than current in use practices.

 

In the interm OPEC is going to Milk the U.S and the rest of the western civilization for all it can while it can.

 

Their days are numbered and they know it. And doing what they can while they can.

 

 

 

Matthew

 

 

Copyied from "Oil Prices Set to Hit $100 by End of '08, and Will Likely Stay at Triple-Digit Level " Topic

Edited October 3, 2007 by matthewq4b

[Ford Jellymoulds]

Bp, Esso, and Shell have all said the same thing, that the easy to find oil that’s easy to extract has peaked worldwide, the UK’s North Sea oil peaked a few years ago. Future oil finds are going to be harder to find and extract all though it will be helped and aided with modern technology.

 

$100 a barrel will stay the normal price, political parties within the UK already have the policy that future oil prices will be allowed to rise, but not come back down again on the agenda.

 

Supplies are not going to match demand in the not to distant future, as billions of Chinese & India want a more western style of living. Car sales are rocketing in China at the moment, they have just got a gas guzzling Toyota Camry production line up and running there.

When billions of Chinese folk start driving their cheap and cheerful Camry’s, $100 will change to $200 a barrel as supplies can’t match demand worldwide, that when we will all be buggered.

 

What’s the answer, well it won’t be build more refineries that won’t be much help when its going to be harder to extract the black liquid gold, and cost more to do in the first place. We would all be better off conserving what we have by driving more fuel-efficient cars, we are all going to be forced into small ecoboxes in the end anyway.

 

President Bush has already said the US needs cut its dependence on Arab oil supplies even though the US does not buy a lot oil from them. You could cut the dependence on Arab oils over night if Ford fitted all its vehicles with hybrid technology and upped the MPG by building smaller more fuel efficient vehicles or engines, moves like this would make alternative fuels like plant based bio fuels & shale oils, which the US has an abundance of, a more viable proposition which would benefit the US economy enormously.

 

Alan Mullaly has already started to make big changes at Ford and is doing a great job, most Fords will soon be capable of running on alternate fuels, and hybrids like the Escape are going to give the SUV a viable future with rising sales, when sales of other pick-ups & the SUV are in a bit of a nose dive at the moment. Ford need to be more dynamic with the superb F-Series, poor MPG is letting sales slip at the moment, the Ranger has a very good fuel consumption.

[ShockFX]

OPEC has actually been increasing production (supply) in the last few years. The reason oil is more expensive is threefold:

1) Increased demand from China and India (10%+ growth per year in oil demand)

2) Oil is valued in dollars, as the dollar falls relative to the currency of other oil buying nations/entities (the Euro for example) they (Euro nations) can buy more oil for the same total cost. This increases demand.

3) Speculation and fear premium. People are buying oil futures to make a potential profit, and investment in commodities by investment/pension funds is at record levels.

 

I did like the tar sands comment. Tar sands projects are breakeven at $35/barrel prices (i'll find the research later if someone wants it). At expected oil prices of $50+, tar sands oil drilling/processing should be underway soon (3 years until they start?).

[630land]

And gas was supposed to be $5 a gallon by 1985, as predicted during oil crisis of 1979-81.

[matthewq4b]

Bp, Esso, and Shell have all said the same thing, that the easy to find oil that’s easy to extract has peaked worldwide, the UK’s North Sea oil peaked a few years ago. Future oil finds are going to be harder to find and extract all though it will be helped and aided with modern technology.

 

$100 a barrel will stay the normal price, political parties within the UK already have the policy that future oil prices will be allowed to rise, but not come back down again on the agenda.

 

Supplies are not going to match demand in the not to distant future, as billions of Chinese & India want a more western style of living. Car sales are rocketing in China at the moment, they have just got a gas guzzling Toyota Camry production line up and running there.

When billions of Chinese folk start driving their cheap and cheerful Camry’s, $100 will change to $200 a barrel as supplies can’t match demand worldwide, that when we will all be buggered.

 

What’s the answer, well it won’t be build more refineries that won’t be much help when its going to be harder to extract the black liquid gold, and cost more to do in the first place. We would all be better off conserving what we have by driving more fuel-efficient cars, we are all going to be forced into small ecoboxes in the end anyway.

 

President Bush has already said the US needs cut its dependence on Arab oil supplies even though the US does not buy a lot oil from them. You could cut the dependence on Arab oils over night if Ford fitted all its vehicles with hybrid technology and upped the MPG by building smaller more fuel efficient vehicles or engines, moves like this would make alternative fuels like plant based bio fuels & shale oils, which the US has an abundance of, a more viable proposition which would benefit the US economy enormously.

 

Alan Mullaly has already started to make big changes at Ford and is doing a great job, most Fords will soon be capable of running on alternate fuels, and hybrids like the Escape are going to give the SUV a viable future with rising sales, when sales of other pick-ups & the SUV are in a bit of a nose dive at the moment. Ford need to be more dynamic with the superb F-Series, poor MPG is letting sales slip at the moment, the Ranger has a very good fuel consumption.

 

 

 

The U.S does buy a lot of Oil from the middle east. The bulk of the oil the U.S imports comes from the middle east region. The single largest supplier is Canada. But we are not the largest supplier regionally, not by a long shot.

 

The price of Oil is going to stay high until the Arabs lose absolute control over world pricing. When Canada gets production to the point that we can replace all the Middle eastern crude coming in to NA then prices will fall. But that is going to take years and tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

 

Possibly with the THAI process that figure both with dollars and time can be cut considerably.

We have known for decades that we could replace the middle east crude supplies. It just required the commitment from the U.S owned oil company's and the U.S Gov't. Now they finally have woken up and realized what we have been telling them for decades. Problem is now so has every other Oil company on the planet. Most all the all of available the Oil Leases are spoken for by foreign company's Petro China Shell ETC. A anouther example of the U.S doing to little too late.

 

And we do need to build more refinery's. Like right now. We are quickly reaching the point of supply out stripping refining capacity in Canada and the U.S. 18 months to 2 years and we will have out stripped the Available refining capacity in NA. We have already out stripped our own refining capacity. And we have half a dozen planed for the next few years. And 2 of those are mega sized. And that still will not meet the need.

 

And when projects like CNRL go fully on stream the gap is going to widen significantly. If we can not sell the stuff here due to lack of refining capacity it will end up being shipped to Asia.

 

There is some speculation that some may be freed up when Oil Imports from the Middle east is cut. But most of these facility's are in locations that can not help to refine the crude coming from the Oil Sands not with out major pipeline construction happening.

 

Currently in NA the pressing issue is not supply but the refining capacity to process the stuff.

That is why the price of Gasoline has fallen in NA as refining capacity has increased recently. A couple of major expansions to existing facility's here and a bunch of upgrades States Side have finally come on line and eased some of the the shortage on refined product.

 

 

Matthew

[ShockFX]

The price of Oil is going to stay high until the Arabs lose absolute control over world pricing. When Canada gets production to the point that we can replace all the Middle eastern crude coming in to NA then prices will fall. But that is going to take years and tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

 

Matthew

 

They are producing more oil now at $80/barrel than they did at $10/barrel. The Arabs don't control world pricing, they control their supply. Read my post about why oil is actually priced high.

 

The other points you made were valid though, you just don't understand pricing.

[suv_guy_19]

They are producing more oil now at $80/barrel than they did at $10/barrel. The Arabs don't control world pricing, they control their supply. Read my post about why oil is actually priced high.

 

The other points you made were valid though, you just don't understand pricing.

 

 

Actually oil prices are set on futures markets that are fueled by fear and speculation.

[ShockFX]

Actually oil prices are set on futures markets that are fueled by fear and speculation.

 

Read my post above with the 3 points.

[suv_guy_19]

Read my post above with the 3 points.

 

 

Oh I know you said that, but that is THE #1 reason, that it goes up, down.

[ShockFX]

Oh I know you said that, but that is THE #1 reason, that it goes up, down.

 

Actually, it's the main reason it DEVIATES from the supply/demand curve. If demand wasn't outpacing supply there wouldn't be speculation and fear around not producing enough oil and the price spiking as a result.

[matthewq4b]

[quote name='ShockFX' date='Oct 3 2007, 10:50 AM' post='230079'

 

I did like the tar sands comment. Tar sands projects are breakeven at $35/barrel prices (i'll find the research later if someone wants it). At expected oil prices of $50+, tar sands oil drilling/processing should be underway soon (3 years until they start?).

 

 

Wrong very wrong the current cost of producing a barrel of Oil from the Oil Sands ranges from just under $8 to just over $11 dollars a barrel depending on the facility. That is the break even point.

 

The Higher break even you see was the cost per barrel until the facility's construction costs are paid for. For eg the 40 billion dollar CNRL facility will be paid for in 2 years once they go fully on line.

 

The cost of production per barrel has come down a lot in the last 20 years. 20 years ago is was about $20 a barrel. The profit margins were very slim at that time, And Alberta since the late 60's has supplemented a lot of the Oil sands company's with tax breaks Oil royalty breaks (we even told them they had to pay nothing for a while) and grants to insure their survivability. If it cost them $35 a barrel they all would have gone tits up years ago. As oil was below that price point for decades and decades until just recently. (2000 or so)

 

And the cost of producing a barrel of Oil Sands crude is far cheaper now than it was in the mid 80's and late 70's.

 

Absolutely do not believe %99 of the stuff you read on the Internet about the Oil Sands as most all of is wrong. I work in the industry and work intimately with company's like Syncrde Suncor CNRL Shell PetroBank etc.

 

Do not believe any thing about the Oil Sands you hear on the news or the Internet. Unless you can verify it from at least 4 different core sources. And that means 4 sources that are using the same paper of figures for their findings. Even the Oil Sands company's them selves and the Provincial and Federal Gov'ts here publish and release incorrect information on cost's and known deposit sizes on purpose.

 

Almost no one knows the exact cost to produce a Barrel of Synthetic crude for the Oil Sands Even in the investor reports only estimates are given never exacts. These figures are as guarded as tightly as state secrets. And only the people at the very top know the actual cost.

 

 

Matthew

[matthewq4b]

They are producing more oil now at $80/barrel than they did at $10/barrel. The Arabs don't control world pricing, they control their supply. Read my post about why oil is actually priced high.

 

The other points you made were valid though, you just don't understand pricing.

 

 

THey do control pricing by controlling supply. Yes they are production more now. But there is also a higher demand now. When Oil was at 10 bucks a barrel 10 years ago China was an emerging market their oil consumption has increased exponentially in the last 10 years. Most all the other large Oil producing nations (expect Canada) have scaled back production significantly. For example the Oil crude bubble burst in Russia and their production is almost half of what it was in the 90-'s .

 

The Arabs control their production figures very closely. If they wanted to the open the taps wide open they could cut the price of oil by 50% in 6 months.

 

This is a simple Supply and demand situation. Nothing more. Every one seems to Forget that a few months back that OPEC said it was cutting Supply by a couple million barrels a day. Well here it is cut back and look at the price of oil.

 

Speculators do play a part. But if the supply was greatly exceeding demand their would be nothing for them to speculate about would there.

But Keep the supply marginally meeting demand and they can speculate till the cows come home and drive Oil Prices what ever direction they want. And of course that will be 9 times out of 10 up

 

Not rocket science folks

 

 

Matthew

Edited October 3, 2007 by matthewq4b

[ShockFX]

Wrong very wrong the current cost of producing a barrel of Oil from the Oil Sands ranges from just under $8 to just over $11 dollars a barrel depending on the facility. That is the break even point.

 

The Higher break even you see was the cost per barrel until the facility's construction costs are paid for. For eg the 40 billion dollar CNRL facility will be paid for in 2 years once they go fully on line.

 

The cost of production per barrel has come down a lot in the last 20 years. 20 years ago is was about $20 a barrel. The profit margins were very slim at that time, And Alberta since the late 60's has supplemented a lot of the Oil sands company's with tax breaks Oil royalty breaks (we even told them they had to pay nothing for a while) and grants to insure their survivability. If it cost them $35 a barrel they all would have gone tits up years ago. As oil was below that price point for decades and decades until just recently. (2000 or so)

 

And the cost of producing a barrel of Oil Sands crude is far cheaper now than it was in the mid 80's and late 70's.

 

Absolutely do not believe %99 of the stuff you read on the Internet about the Oil Sands as most all of is wrong. I work in the industry and work intimately with company's like Syncrde Suncor CNRL Shell PetroBank etc.

 

Do not believe any thing about the Oil Sands you hear on the news or the Internet. Unless you can verify it from at least 4 different core sources. And that means 4 sources that are using the same paper of figures for their findings. Even the Oil Sands company's them selves and the Provincial and Federal Gov'ts here publish and release incorrect information on cost's and known deposit sizes on purpose.

 

Almost no one knows the exact cost to produce a Barrel of Synthetic crude for the Oil Sands Even in the investor reports only estimates are given never exacts. These figures are as guarded as tightly as state secrets. And only the people at the very top know the actual cost.

Matthew

 

I just did some brief research and you are correct. I was going off a Bank of America commodities investment group report on oil prices I read 2 years ago. I don't have it offhand now, but I believe the $35/barrel number was the number that made the entire project viable within a certain time period. Oil prices would plummet if fusion power and fuel cells were viable tomorrow.

 

/shrug, good to know I was wrong.

[Ford Jellymoulds]

The U.S does buy a lot of Oil from the middle east. The bulk of the oil the U.S imports comes from the middle east region. The single largest supplier is Canada. But we are not the largest supplier regionally, not by a long shot.

 

The price of Oil is going to stay high until the Arabs lose absolute control over world pricing. When Canada gets production to the point that we can replace all the Middle eastern crude coming in to NA then prices will fall. But that is going to take years and tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

 

Possibly with the THAI process that figure both with dollars and time can be cut considerably.

We have known for decades that we could replace the middle east crude supplies. It just required the commitment from the U.S owned oil company's and the U.S Gov't. Now they finally have woken up and realized what we have been telling them for decades. Problem is now so has every other Oil company on the planet. Most all the all of available the Oil Leases are spoken for by foreign company's Petro China Shell ETC. A anouther example of the U.S doing to little too late.

 

And we do need to build more refinery's. Like right now. We are quickly reaching the point of supply out stripping refining capacity in Canada and the U.S. 18 months to 2 years and we will have out stripped the Available refining capacity in NA. We have already out stripped our own refining capacity. And we have half a dozen planed for the next few years. And 2 of those are mega sized. And that still will not meet the need.

 

And when projects like CNRL go fully on stream the gap is going to widen significantly. If we can not sell the stuff here due to lack of refining capacity it will end up being shipped to Asia.

 

There is some speculation that some may be freed up when Oil Imports from the Middle east is cut. But most of these facility's are in locations that can not help to refine the crude coming from the Oil Sands not with out major pipeline construction happening.

 

Currently in NA the pressing issue is not supply but the refining capacity to process the stuff.

That is why the price of Gasoline has fallen in NA as refining capacity has increased recently. A couple of major expansions to existing facility's here and a bunch of upgrades States Side have finally come on line and eased some of the the shortage on refined product.

Matthew

 

Thank you for taking the time to give a long and comprehensive answer Matthew. But when l read items like this below from experts who spend all their lifetime in the industry l do wonder who is telling us the truth?

 

 

Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil - the cheap and easy to extract stuff - has already come and gone in 2005........

 

http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece