Oil=$100 dollars a barrel by the end of 2008

[matthewq4b]

Thank you for taking the time to give a long and comprehensive answer Matthew. But when l read items like this below from experts who spend all their lifetime in the industry l do wonder who is telling us the truth?

Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil - the cheap and easy to extract stuff - has already come and gone in 2005........

 

http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece

 

 

See problem with stuff like is this he is not schooled or educated in-on the Oil Sands an is using selective figures to suit his position.

 

Their is more known oil in the Oil Sands of Alberta than THE WHOLE OF THE MIDDLE EAST PERIOD. Plus their are Oil sands in 5 other provinces and territory's that are not counted. There is more Oil in Sask than in Alberta trapped in Oil Sands.

 

In the Worlds Known oil reserves Canada's Oil sands was not even included in the count until 2001.

And then when it was Only the Oil sands that could be extracted with conventional strip mining and long term proven upgrading tech was used as the calculator. We went from 26 th to 2 nd over night in known worlds oil reserves.

 

Also the tech used to calculate the Volume of Crude was at that time obsolete even.

 

Old tech yielded 2/3'ds of a barrel of crude from a Barrel of raw Oil sands bitumen. For several year now since 1999 the yields had been 1 and 1/3 barrel of crude form a barrel of bitumen. There is tech in the works that will increase this 1.5 barrels of final crude from a barrel of bitumen.

 

The reason the BP'schief economist Peter Davies said it was bunk is cause he knows better. He knows that the figures the oil company's release are far from actual.

 

I mean think about it if the Oil company's say Ya we got such and such reserves it will last for the next 300 hundred years or what ever what do think is going to happen to Oil prices and their profits ?

Both are going to nose dive.

 

It is in their best interest to keep every body in the dark to actual reserves.

 

Their is tech that is currently being used that will allow access to all of Canada's Oil Sands all Trillion plus barrels of it.

 

No one knows the actual amount of Oil in the Oil sands here. Estimates run from 20 billion barrels ,ridiculously low and the figure most Peak Oil theorists like use. To a trillion. Most in the industry acknowledge the figure is some around 700 Billion barrels for sure and possibly as high as 2 trillion.

 

All the oil in the sands are a result of seeps. The search for the main sources of the seeps is still under way. There is speculation that there could be a multy billion (like tens or hundreds) barrel liquid reserve some where in Canada's north. The whole extent of Canada's Oil sands have not been explored or mapped currently less than 40% of it has been. Remember Alberta's Oil sands Alone cover an area twice the size of the state of Florida.

 

To put this in terms you can relate to Jellymoulds. The Isle of Great Britan covers just under 81,000 square miles. Alberta's Oil Sands deposits cover over 140,000 square miles. That is just Alberta. It does not count Sask Manitoba the NWT B.C or the Yukon. And their is more oil in Sask than in Alberta.

 

Try to find figures on the estimates on the number of barrels of oil in the Oil sands in Sask. They do not exist. They are not published any where............... estimates from what I have heard put the volume at 3 or 4 times more Oil than what is in Alberta in the Oil Sands.

 

The Peak Oil theorists are correct about Light Crude supplies no question we are running out.

Their time line is way off thought, we will be seeing serious light crude supply issues in about 2020 to 2030 not 2011. And that is only if heavy oil is not developed any further and is also dependant on the rate of development. No development we are looking at 2020 on going current rate of development light crude will be nearly exhausted by 2030. But heavy oil will be able to make up the short fall. Especially if we can get the U.S on board in our Oil Sands and quit spending billions in the middle east on pointless escapades.

 

The reserves of Heavy Oil on the planet are exponentially higher than the reserves of light crude

Alberta and Canada are leading the charge to develop the tech to utilize this resource.

 

 

Matthew

[NickF1011]

As my mother would always say when anybody made some silly claim about when something was going to happen...

 

"And Christmas is coming too!"

 

Haven't they been talking about $100 oil for over 2 years now?

[ShockFX]

THey do control pricing by controlling supply. Yes they are production more now. But there is also a higher demand now. When Oil was at 10 bucks a barrel 10 years ago China was an emerging market their oil consumption has increased exponentially in the last 10 years. Most all the other large Oil producing nations (expect Canada) have scaled back production significantly. For example the Oil crude bubble burst in Russia and their production is almost half of what it was in the 90-'s .

 

The Arabs control their production figures very closely. If they wanted to the open the taps wide open they could cut the price of oil by 50% in 6 months.

 

This is a simple Supply and demand situation. Nothing more. Every one seems to Forget that a few months back that OPEC said it was cutting Supply by a couple million barrels a day. Well here it is cut back and look at the price of oil.

 

Speculators do play a part. But if the supply was greatly exceeding demand their would be nothing for them to speculate about would there.

But Keep the supply marginally meeting demand and they can speculate till the cows come home and drive Oil Prices what ever direction they want. And of course that will be 9 times out of 10 up

 

Not rocket science folks

Matthew

 

I appreciate the effort and research you back posts with, rather that just saying "this is how it is". However, if Saudi Arabia opened the taps today the prices would decline instantly. Only the front month contract would suffer a smaller decline and that would depend on how far out it was. I'm also pretty sure the Saudis and OPEC don't determine supply just so rich investors and hedge funds can speculate.

 

http://www.mees.com/Energy_Tables/crude-oil.htm

 

These are estimates, of course, but you can see total oil production is up in the last 8 years and that OPEC production is nearly unchanged. Changing Saudi output by 2 million barrels a day means nothing.

 

I personally think that the reserves under those nations are greatly overestimated. We're talking about some of the most dishonest nations in the world and the fact that these estimates are nearly impossible to make accurate. Russia used to trumpet insane production numbers during the cold war, look where that got them. Oil prices stayed low for a long time since OPEC members would jump onto any price increase and produce more oil (supply and demand). Now, though, they are not producing more. Maybe they have finally hit capacity.

 

The question really is this: We take so much stored energy out of the Earth in the form coal, natural gas, and oil (fossil fuels in general), at what point does the Earth have no more non-renewable energy left for us to use? All we do is turn mass into energy and heat. We cannot recapture this energy and heat after use though. This is the basis for a hydrogen economy. Some fuel cells turn hydrogen into energy and water, some fuel cells turn water into hydrogen and energy.

[matthewq4b]

I appreciate the effort and research you back posts with, rather that just saying "this is how it is". However, if Saudi Arabia opened the taps today the prices would decline instantly. Only the front month contract would suffer a smaller decline and that would depend on how far out it was. I'm also pretty sure the Saudis and OPEC don't determine supply just so rich investors and hedge funds can speculate.

 

http://www.mees.com/Energy_Tables/crude-oil.htm

 

These are estimates, of course, but you can see total oil production is up in the last 8 years and that OPEC production is nearly unchanged. Changing Saudi output by 2 million barrels a day means nothing.

 

I personally think that the reserves under those nations are greatly overestimated. We're talking about some of the most dishonest nations in the world and the fact that these estimates are nearly impossible to make accurate. Russia used to trumpet insane production numbers during the cold war, look where that got them. Oil prices stayed low for a long time since OPEC members would jump onto any price increase and produce more oil (supply and demand). Now, though, they are not producing more. Maybe they have finally hit capacity.

 

The question really is this: We take so much stored energy out of the Earth in the form coal, natural gas, and oil (fossil fuels in general), at what point does the Earth have no more non-renewable energy left for us to use? All we do is turn mass into energy and heat. We cannot recapture this energy and heat after use though. This is the basis for a hydrogen economy. Some fuel cells turn hydrogen into energy and water, some fuel cells turn water into hydrogen and energy.

 

 

OPEC has never released their actual reserves. All the peak Oil theorists say they have to be about exhausted. But OPEC continually states that is not the case. And keeps production up at current levals They do not nor have ever confirmed or contradicted Oil shortage theorists. But these same clown stated in the 70's the middle east would be dry by 2000 and then the Arabs said nothign as well.

 

 

Currently the issue with the middle east is the infrastructure they have about peaked out their ability to build and maintain any more.

 

They will not allow foreign company's to operate with out strict controls so the U.S or the EU can not go in there on a massive scale to pick up the slack.

 

Do not under estimate their reserves. the Arabs have stopped publically publishing large oil Field finds and yes their have been a few in the last couple years. We have a new Engineer that worked contract to the Saudis, And let me tell you you have no idea of the subterfuge they are pulling on the rest of the planet.

 

Also 2 million BB per day makes a big impact right now as we running the razors edge of supply and demand.

 

 

Matthew

Edited October 3, 2007 by matthewq4b

[ShockFX]

Do not under estimate their reserves. the Arabs have stopped publically publishing large oil Field finds and yes their have been a few in the last couple years. We have a new Engineer that worked contract to the Saudis, And let me tell you you have no idea of the subterfuge they are pulling on the rest of the planet.

 

Also 2 million BB per day makes a big impact right now as we running the razors edge of supply and demand.

Matthew

 

I do know the subterfuge they are pulling, that country is full of it. Too bad all that country really has to offer is oil, once we no longer need oil they will be pretty much useless like they were before oil mattered.

 

And look at production, Saudi restored that 2million BB per day or at least most of it.

[ibinubu12]

OPEC has never released their actual reserves. All the peak Oil theorists say they have to be about exhausted. But OPEC continually states that is not the case. And keeps production up at current levals They do not nor have ever confirmed or contradicted Oil shortage theorists. But these same clown stated in the 70's the middle east would be dry by 2000 and then the Arabs said nothign as well.

Currently the issue with the middle east is the infrastructure they have about peaked out their ability to build and maintain any more.

 

They will not allow foreign company's to operate with out strict controls so the U.S or the EU can not go in there on a massive scale to pick up the slack.

 

Do not under estimate their reserves. the Arabs have stopped publically publishing large oil Field finds and yes their have been a few in the last couple years. We have a new Engineer that worked contract to the Saudis, And let me tell you you have no idea of the subterfuge they are pulling on the rest of the planet.

 

Also 2 million BB per day makes a big impact right now as we running the razors edge of supply and demand.

Matthew

Oil is not a proper noun.

Field is not a proper noun.

Engineer is not a proper noun.

 

Stop capitalizing in the middle of sentences, it is highly annoying.

[silvrsvt]

Oil is not a proper noun.

Field is not a proper noun.

Engineer is not a proper noun.

 

Stop capitalizing in the middle of sentences, it is highly annoying.

 

 

Grammar police on the patrol!

[matthewq4b]

Oil is not a proper noun.

Field is not a proper noun.

Engineer is not a proper noun.

 

Stop capitalizing in the middle of sentences, it is highly annoying.

 

 

Don't like my 3 finger typing then don't read it simple as that.

 

 

Matthew

[LincolnFan]

Do not under estimate their reserves. the Arabs have stopped publically publishing large oil Field finds and yes their have been a few in the last couple years. We have a new Engineer that worked contract to the Saudis, And let me tell you you have no idea of the subterfuge they are pulling on the rest of the planet.

 

The secrets about oil wells are extremely well guarded, I have relatives who work in Aramco, one of them is a high ranked employee, all what you can know about oil future is "Oil wells are still found in a yearly basis", Aramco is a state owned firm %100.

 

Personally I think oil is becoming hard to find, Aramco lately have been investing in other projects which they have never done. You can say that they're "expanding" and trying to become more profitable, but why would the Government want it to do other than extracting and refining oil? They can easily get money from different methods which are more easier.

[630land]

I do know that many of the 'theys' who predict oil crisises are ones who want to 'eliminate the automobile', force people to live in 'high density cities' and 'only take public transit'. I.E, be like old USSR.

[Ford Jellymoulds]

I do know that many of the 'theys' who predict oil crisises are ones who want to 'eliminate the automobile', force people to live in 'high density cities' and 'only take public transit'. I.E, be like old USSR.

 

Trouble is though THEY might be right, l don't agree with global warming though.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/