Savetheplanet Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 No incumbent president has ever been re-elected with unemployment over 8% Although current polls show President Obama ahead in many categories, I don't think the numbers will hold and he will drop in some of the polls. the election is a long ways off and anything could happen between now and then, Greece could falter, war with Iran etc. so progressives (in my opinion) should not be celebrating yet as some are. With all that said, assuming Romney is the GOP candidate, can he beat Obama? What do you think? He has a lot of money and with the "citizens united" ruling his superpac will almost certainly raise more money than the Dems. Support for the GOP among Hispanics and women are a problem though for now. Will he pick Mark Rubbio for a running mate to help win the Hispanic vote? Did he cut a deal with Ron Paul to name Rand Paul as VP.? And if so will it energize the young people enough for him to win? What about Romneys op-ed in USA three years ago calling for the rest of the nation to implement his Mass. health care plan? Will he still be able to prosecute and repeal the affordable health care act? My number one question though is--If Romney does not sew it up soon, is there any chance that another candidate could get nominated at the GOP convention? Like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Haley Barbor etc. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprinter Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 It's a farce to get Jeb Bush in. You have Paul on one hand that has thousands of people that show up for his rallies and who never has won a state. But then you have Newt winning a couple of primaries who canceled a rally because not enough people showed up to a small hotel meeting room. At the end, the Republicans will pretend to be divided and all will bow to Bush as the savor. Paul is the 'White Knight' but the elite establishment will not let him succeed. As I see it, after another term of Bush or Obama, and the middle class will be destroyed. Doesn't matter which one because in the end the policy is the same. And if you don't like it, they have a new home for you in a "re-education camp". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Greene Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 (edited) It probably comes down to how far right the GOP candidate has to go to win the nimination. It will be difficult to win over the independents if the nomimee has to pander a lot more to the ultra conservatives over social issues. Romney's fomer position on health care is not a problem with many of us independents who see our current system as a mess and overly expensive. Edited March 7, 2012 by Ralph Greene Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savetheplanet Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 It probably comes down to how far right the GOP candidate has to go to win the nimination. It will be difficult to win over the independents if the nomimee has to pander a lot more to the ultra conservatives over social issues. Romney's fomer position on health care is not a problem with many of us independents who see our current system as a mess and overly expensive. Looks like the GOP base is still having trouble warming up to Romney. If he is nominated. in the end, I think the base will have no choice but to vote for him, I have no doubt about that. they certainly are not going to vote for Obama. But what will the independents do? Is the GOP loosing independents during this ugly slugfest of a primary? More importantly, even though the base will vote for Romney (IF he gets the nomination) will they rally for him in a meaningful way ? As in, will they make phone calls, go door to door for him? I can't believe that the GOP establishment did not put forth better candidates, Haley Barbar seems like a better choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Greene Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Looks like the GOP base is still having trouble warming up to Romney. If he is nominated. in the end, I think the base will have no choice but to vote for him, I have no doubt about that. they certainly are not going to vote for Obama. But what will the independents do? Is the GOP loosing independents during this ugly slugfest of a primary? More importantly, even though the base will vote for Romney (IF he gets the nomination) will they rally for him in a meaningful way ? As in, will they make phone calls, go door to door for him? I can't believe that the GOP establishment did not put forth better candidates, Haley Barbar seems like a better choice. Well.....I'm an independent. I don't think Obama has got the job done. Not necessarily because of his philosophy, but more because he hasn't turned out to be the leader many hoped for. I think a big problem for Romney is his religion.....and no one wants to talk about that. My family Doc told me recemtly he likes Romney, but didn't know if he could vote for a Mormon. Unbelievable. But that's out there. I think Romney looks and sounds Presidential....whatever that's worth. I liked John Huntsman the best.....but he had no support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savetheplanet Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Well.....I'm an independent. I don't think Obama has got the job done. Not necessarily because of his philosophy, but more because he hasn't turned out to be the leader many hoped for. I think a big problem for Romney is his religion.....and no one wants to talk about that. My family Doc told me recemtly he likes Romney, but didn't know if he could vote for a Mormon. Unbelievable. But that's out there. I think Romney looks and sounds Presidential....whatever that's worth. I liked John Huntsman the best.....but he had no support. So as a independent would you vote for Romney? Well I have never cited aRasmussen (sp?) pole but since they were the only ones that I saw that asked the question. --- 43% say that a new candidate should enter the GOP race. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_e So maybe thier is a chance for a different nominee at the convention. I think it's a shame the way our elections are conducted, it's bad for all of us, conservatives and progressives, if the were more parties and more candidates and we all voted our conscience, Obama, Romney, MCcain etc. none of them would be elected. Even though I disagree with a lot of the tea parties platform, I respect them and think their views and their voice are important for democracy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retro-man Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 It almost appears as if Gingrich is running interference for Romney at this point, since most of his votes would probably go to Santorum. Be interesting to see which way the delegates fall in the end, or if they recognize that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Greene Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 (edited) So as a independent would you vote for Romney? Probably. Not sure about wife. She keeps reminding me second year of dem president usually good for stock market. And first year of Romney he would just be running for second term. And her main rant to me is "we made our retirement money under Clinton". Edited March 7, 2012 by Ralph Greene Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xr7g428 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 She keeps reminding me second year of dem president usually good for stock market. And her main rant to me is "we made our retirement money under Clinton". And you accept this as being reasonable criteria for investment decisions? LOL! Good luck! (I have been married to the same woman for over 30 years so I am laughing with you, not at you) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savetheplanet Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 It almost appears as if Gingrich is running interference for Romney at this point, since most of his votes would probably go to Santorum. Be interesting to see which way the delegates fall in the end, or if they recognize that. hmm, not sure if I buy that one, (I know, you said--appears) It is an intriguing question though. Why he won't drop out? Does he dislike Romney or Santoum that much? Does he think it will improve his book sales? Does he hope to get a cabinet position from the winner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron W. Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 It is an intriguing question though. Why he won't drop out? Does he dislike Romney or Santoum that much? Does he think it will improve his book sales? Does he hope to get a cabinet position from the winner? All of the above ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 No incumbent president has ever been re-elected with unemployment over 8% Although current polls show President Obama ahead in many categories, I don't think the numbers will hold and he will drop in some of the polls. the election is a long ways off and anything could happen between now and then, Greece could falter, war with Iran etc. so progressives (in my opinion) should not be celebrating yet as some are. With all that said, assuming Romney is the GOP candidate, can he beat Obama? What do you think? He has a lot of money and with the "citizens united" ruling his superpac will almost certainly raise more money than the Dems. Support for the GOP among Hispanics and women are a problem though for now. Will he pick Mark Rubbio for a running mate to help win the Hispanic vote? Did he cut a deal with Ron Paul to name Rand Paul as VP.? And if so will it energize the young people enough for him to win? What about Romneys op-ed in USA three years ago calling for the rest of the nation to implement his Mass. health care plan? Will he still be able to prosecute and repeal the affordable health care act? My number one question though is--If Romney does not sew it up soon, is there any chance that another candidate could get nominated at the GOP convention? Like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Haley Barbor etc. ? That's just it Top Republican candidates that have never lost an election don't want to go against an incumbent President. So you get Romney that couldn't beat McCain in 2008, Santorum who lost his Senator position to Casey in 2006, and Gingrich who lost his speaker of the house post. All losers. Things are really going to have to get bad for Romney to beat a sitting President who has been tested Overseas and at home. And if things are bad Overseas in November, I would think American would be even less inclined to put untested rookie into power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retro-man Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 hmm, not sure if I buy that one, (I know, you said--appears) It is an intriguing question though. Why he won't drop out? Does he dislike Romney or Santoum that much? Does he think it will improve his book sales? Does he hope to get a cabinet position from the winner? To be honest, I think his ..... belief in his heroic destiny is such that he may actually be still thinking he can get the nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Probably. Not sure about wife. She keeps reminding me second year of dem president usually good for stock market. And first year of Romney he would just be running for second term. And her main rant to me is "we made our retirement money under Clinton". I can't remember the last American President who has had a "good" second term. Even Eisenhower had a pretty deep recession in 1958 to deal with. Nixon resigned in his second term. LBJ never made it to second term. Carter never made it also along with H.W. Bush. Clinton's second term was not so hot with Dot Com bubble bursting, Enron, and impeachment hearings. Reagan had to deal with Iran Contra scandal in second term and seemed out of it after he got shot. We all know what happened to W. Bush. I believe Obama will win re-election, but I also believe the race will tighten up just before first Tuesday in November, that Obama will beat Romney in squeaker, not landslide, and Congress will stay Republican to check Obama's spending. And the odds are not particularly good that Obama will have a good second term if you look at his predecessors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savetheplanet Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 That's just it Top Republican candidates that have never lost an election don't want to go against an incumbent President. So you get Romney that couldn't beat McCain in 2008, Santorum who lost his Senator position to Casey in 2006, and Gingrich who lost his speaker of the house post. All losers. Things are really going to have to get bad for Romney to beat a sitting President who has been tested Overseas and at home. And if things are bad Overseas in November, I would think American would be even less inclined to put untested rookie into power. History is important, it does repeat itself from time to time. But I feel we are in uncharted territory right now, so many variables. Like I said earlier, no incumbent president has ever been reelected with unemployment over 8% Then there is the possibility of war with Iran, the economy faltering in late summer, the Republicans raising way more $$ than the Dems etc. Obama won some of the southern states in 08 Virgina, florida , N.C. If Romney losses the south in the primary and still wins the overall primary, can he hope to beat obama in the general election? I just read somewhere that 10 senators and 20+ house members are not running for re election, seems to me they get sick of spending most of their time trying to raise $ (dialing for $) Is it any wonder that Americas best and brightest don't want to run for office? George Will just wrote an op-ed stating that the GOP should give up on the 2112 presidential race and focus on the house and senate races. The 2112 election is really interesting though, I have never seen anything just like it.. It would be fascinating if there were a brokered convention. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imawhosure Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 If Mitt Romney is the GOP standard bearer, the only debate point he has is going to be the price of fuel to come off believable as far as domestic policy for growth. He will not have Obamacare to banter about because of Romneycare. The outcome of this election resides in the Middle East at this point in time. The actions they take will determine where fuel prices will be in November, along with the effect they have on the economy. If gas prices are over 4 bucks, Obama loses as the GOP pushes the point that he screwed the pooch. At around 4 bucks, it is very, very, close. Get them in the 3.50 range, and Obama gets re-elected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprinter Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 If Mitt Romney is the GOP standard bearer, the only debate point he has is going to be the price of fuel to come off believable as far as domestic policy for growth. He will not have Obamacare to banter about because of Romneycare. The outcome of this election resides in the Middle East at this point in time. The actions they take will determine where fuel prices will be in November, along with the effect they have on the economy. If gas prices are over 4 bucks, Obama loses as the GOP pushes the point that he screwed the pooch. At around 4 bucks, it is very, very, close. Get them in the 3.50 range, and Obama gets re-elected. That is why Obama wants to stay clear of a war in Iran until after the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Greene Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 If Mitt Romney is the GOP standard bearer, the only debate point he has is going to be the price of fuel to come off believable as far as domestic policy for growth. He will not have Obamacare to banter about because of Romneycare. The outcome of this election resides in the Middle East at this point in time. The actions they take will determine where fuel prices will be in November, along with the effect they have on the economy. If gas prices are over 4 bucks, Obama loses as the GOP pushes the point that he screwed the pooch. At around 4 bucks, it is very, very, close. Get them in the 3.50 range, and Obama gets re-elected. I don't think the American people are this stupid. Presidents have no control over gasoline prices. Bush said he couldn't control them, and Obama can't either. Our refineries can't process the crude they can get now...more crude would solve nothing. More drilling would solve nothing. More pipelines would not solve current gasoline problem, but would carry some crude from Dakota and Canada to the refineries. Where it can be stored until used. I agree Obama should hurry and approve this new pipeline, although short term it will solve nothing. You can blame supply and demand inequality, but that doesn't seem to be the whole answer either. We're using less gasoline every year. You can blame speculators on commodity exchanges for running up price for future delivery, but they can just as easily be short sellers, driving prices abnormally low, so blaming speculators doesn't seem to be the answer. The only answer that makes any sense to me is fear of war in mid east, causing hoarding by some nations. Another reason for us to be energy independent from mid east. But we mostly are now anyway. So even though I have some experience in trading oil futures, I can't explain these prices either. Maybe this is where they need to be. RBOB gas closed at $3.34 per gallon today. (RBOB is before blending, taxes, and profit). Big oil companies says the gasoline business is unprofitable....they have sold most of their retail outlets. Best advice I an give is when you trade.....get something with great fuel economy. BTW....When everyone (especially experts) gives up and assums gasoline prices can only go up from here......they'll come down. That's how markets work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xr7g428 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 (edited) Our refineries can't process the crude they can get now...more crude would solve nothing. More drilling would solve nothing. This part is simply not true. Refinery utilization has been dropping for months. US refinery capacity EIA link Edited March 9, 2012 by xr7g428 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmccap Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 If Mitt Romney is the GOP standard bearer, the only debate point he has is going to be the price of fuel to come off believable as far as domestic policy for growth. He will not have Obamacare to banter about because of Romneycare. The outcome of this election resides in the Middle East at this point in time. The actions they take will determine where fuel prices will be in November, along with the effect they have on the economy. If gas prices are over 4 bucks, Obama loses as the GOP pushes the point that he screwed the pooch. At around 4 bucks, it is very, very, close. Get them in the 3.50 range, and Obama gets re-elected. Then what's this about? Top Romney Adviser Wants $2.00 Plus Hike in Gas Tax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chevys Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 I like Newt myself but he cant be elected. I dont care for Santorum at all. Romney can beat Obama imo. Ron Paul has some good ideas but he is a nut in certain cases. So that leaves us with Romney. He can win. I normally dont get in these conversations but I have had enough of Obama and his big spending Chicago liberal style mafia politics to last me a lifetime. He is the WORST president I can remember in my lifetimedegree. Yes, I was old enough to remember Jimmy Carter and would love to have him back right now. If BHO is not bad enough all you have to do is look at his cabinet. Its full of thugs and nut jobs like Eric HOlder and Energy Secretary Chu who wants gas to go up to 8 bucks a gallon. He just got caught admitting he loved the Volt and the sorry ass does not even own a car. These nuts jobs are way way out of touch. Spending is out of control and both parties are to be blamed and I tell you I am fed of with both of them. The GOP allowed us to get here and the DEms just keep printing money like there is no limit. I have had it. I think Obama is done and what is with the BS I read about bribing Isreal to hold off bombing IrAN TILL after the election?? BHO is a pussy when you get right down to it. Yeah, we got Bin Laden but a monkey would have made that call. He was the most wanted man on the planet. We have to turn our spending around now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
napfirst Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 Latest polling has obama trailing Romney...... The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19 For the third consecutive day, Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. It is still, however, too early to tell if these results reflect a lasting change in the race or are merely statistical noise. Today's numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 42%. That matches the largest lead Romney has ever enjoyed over the president. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
partsisparts Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 (edited) Latest polling has obama trailing Romney...... Here is a link to a list of polls.The only one showing Romney in the lead is Rasmussen. All the others have Obama in the lead and Politico has him in the lead by 10 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html Edited March 11, 2012 by partsisparts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Greene Posted March 11, 2012 Share Posted March 11, 2012 (edited) Here is a link to a list of polls.The only one showing Romney in the lead is Rasmussen. All the others have Obama in the lead and Politico has him in the lead by 10 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html As a registered voter with no party affiliation, my understanding is the person who is to be the next president has to win my vote (or the vote of single white women). The Republican base is so far to the right, they can't elect a president. Don't think there are enough Dems to do it either. I was hoping for a choice of someone a tad more conservative than Obama, but not so far right as the republican base. Romney could do it, but he's being dragged way off to the right. He could lose me if he keeps this up to beat Santorum. I would have difficulty voting for someone who totally changes his message from the primaries to the general election. And to answer the original question....a white knight would not have the time (or money) to put an organization together to win. And a 3rd party won't work either. Looks like Obama wins to me....by a landslide.....probably carrying a lot of Dems back to the house with him. The Republicans have worked hard to reelect Obama. Other independents I know think generally the same. I think John Huntsman would have made a winning contender against Obama, he was my choice and I thought the most sensible, but the republican base couldn't stand him. He was too liberal, too experienced in the real world....Being Utah Governor a couple times and Chinese Ambassador, etc.. Edited March 11, 2012 by Ralph Greene 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
napfirst Posted March 12, 2012 Share Posted March 12, 2012 . The Republican base is so far to the right, they can't elect a president. Don't think there are enough Yeah Ralph, the republicans had such a hard time attracting voters in the 2010 elections....... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.