Cruze Diesel Rated Dead Last

[matthewq4b]

This should be no surpise to any one. When was the last time GMC offered a diesel car in the NA market? I think Regan was president last time that happend..

This is thier first effort it will take some tweeking to be comparible to the other contenders in the market. Diesel done right in a car is superior to gasoline in may aspects. Lower mait costs,oil change intervals in most auto diesels are at 10,000 miles. No plugs,no coil wires etc. Engine life exctancy is nearly double gasoline , Transmissions are generally heavier and longer lasting, Fule pump life is about 4 times compared to gasoline units. Todays' auto diesels bear no resembelance to diesels fo just a few years ago.

 

Look to Mercedes to see how Diesel in cars are done right.

[RichardJensen]

Meh, few of those benefits are meaningful to vehicle owners who will trade a vehicle off before stuff like fuel pumps wear out.

 

I mean, shoot, gas engines are basically sealed units for the first 100k miles these days.

 

Also, are you guys having an equally crappy winter up in Alberta? This is like the worst winter we've had in 16 or 17 years.

[jpd80]

I think the lack of support for a highly publicized diesel Cruze that was supposed to be all things to all people underlines one very important point.

While outstanding fuel economy is respected by many people, it is seen by many as something automakers should be including at no cost,

not a costly premium that buyers shouls be expected to pay - that's the tide uber-efficient vehicles with a premium price are rowing against.

 

Hybrid Focus or Diesel Focus or 1.0 EB Focus?

All would probably deliver similar savings in fuel consumption but only one has no real premium cost, I'm betting that the 1.0 EB Focus

would reach many more American consumers than any fancy pants hybrid or diesel combination, a sub $20K commuter that sips gas and

does all an owner wants as basic to and fro transport at 40-60 mph.

 

IMO, 1.0 EB in Fiesta, Focus and Ecosport is that segment's sweet spot and completely within Ford's reach in the next year or so.

Edited January 23, 2014 by jpd80

[Fgts]

So far GM moved 3080 D Cruzes from May (on sale that month) to December. Vw moved 26000 D Jettas all of 2013 (remember Vw been doing Diesel for years). Diesel buyers wont buy hybrids or any alternative fuel car.

 

As i pointed the flaws of the current D Cruze GM will be really foolish if they just give up on a Diesel car.

[NickF1011]

Diesel buyers wont buy hybrids or any alternative fuel car.

 

 

Diesels ARE an alternative fuel car. And I wouldn't say no diesel owners would go for hybrids. More likely is that VW owners won't buy non-VW's, and VW's hybrid offerings are limited.

[akirby]

Vw moved 26000 D Jettas all of 2013 (remember Vw been doing Diesel for years). Diesel buyers wont buy hybrids or any alternative fuel car.

 

Do you really think Audi/VW diesel buyers are going to buy a non Audi/VW diesel anything?

[jpd80]

GM picked the most diesel friendly areas to roll out diesel cruze and scores roughly 500/mth, I think the best it can hope for is 1,000/mth in sales.

I'm not saying GM shouldn''t persist but the worst thing it could do now is offer a fuel efficient gasoline version as internal competition.

And that's the rub here - the broader market wants efficient gasoline either via smaller efficient gas engines or some degree of hybriding.

 

 

It's not that there aren't buyers out there willing to purchase diesel cars, there's just not enough of them for car makers to pursue

compared to the broader market more conducive to efficient gasoline - the easier path is efficient gasoline.

Edited January 23, 2014 by jpd80

[Fgts]

Take in the fact no other domestic or Asian make produced a diesel for around 30 years, Vw was the only game if you want a mainstream diesel.

 

I should be more clear, most diesel buyers wont buy any other fueled car.

 

Some of the Vw Diesel buyers will jump ship if anyone else offerd a diesel and avoid issues like $6000 fuel pumps. The Cruze D moved over 3000 retail diesels last year with a few ads during launch and with the Volt on the same lot, im pretty sure Chevy will sale more this year.

[jpd80]

I'm willing to accept that Diesel could be something that grows on American buyers with time but equally believe that diesel penetration

would be better if it was used in a utility rather than a car but hey, Cruze diesel could really take off this year once word gets around..

[NickF1011]

Take in the fact no other domestic or Asian make produced a diesel for around 30 years, Vw was the only game if you want a mainstream diesel.

 

I should be more clear, most diesel buyers wont buy any other fueled car.

 

Some of the Vw Diesel buyers will jump ship if anyone else offerd a diesel and avoid issues like $6000 fuel pumps. The Cruze D moved over 3000 retail diesels last year with a few ads during launch and with the Volt on the same lot, im pretty sure Chevy will sale more this year.

 

Would be interesting to see how many, if any, of those buyers were former VW diesel owners. Most VW diesel owners aren't just diesel snobs. They are also euro snobs. They'd probably be far more likely to pick up something like a BMW diesel (or even non-diesel) than anything built by an American brand.

[matthewq4b]

Meh, few of those benefits are meaningful to vehicle owners who will trade a vehicle off before stuff like fuel pumps wear out.

 

I mean, shoot, gas engines are basically sealed units for the first 100k miles these days.

 

Also, are you guys having an equally crappy winter up in Alberta? This is like the worst winter we've had in 16 or 17 years.

 

They are, but fuel pumps are still crapping within that 100K mark. And with the additives continually growing in gasoline it's not helping. One big plus for diesel vehicles is they have always had higher resale values, not sure about down south but the difference has been rather drastic in Canada, over 50% or higher in some cases. Also owners of diesel cars on average tend to keep their cars longer before trading them in. That may not have any thing to do with the vehicle it's self but may be more demographic related or due to the higher initial purchase price, but who its to say. Fuel costs at least here are wash as in winter diesel is higher priced than gasoline but lower priced than gasoline in the summer.

 

I do have a friend who has a Diesel Mercedes R Class, she moved out of a Torrent in to the Mercedes. Now the Mercedes is a considerably larger vehicle ,she is spending the same dollars on fuel in the R Class as she was in the Torrent possibly a little less, and she has been driving more miles over all. I do know she absolutely loves the R Class and said she "will keep it till the wheels fall off'.

 

The big question I have is GM utilizing the same kind of fuel saving strategies the Germans are in their Diesel cars. Stuff like regenerative charging. Mercedes in particular has been using AGM (Absorbed Glass Mat) type batteries for several years now. This allows the alternator sluff along when cruising just maintaining and then full output charge when the vehicle is braking to top the battery off. This is just a programming protocol within the vehicles management computer. This strategy can not be utilized with conventional wet lead acid batteries as you would cook them right now, AGM batteries can handle extremely high amp charging. AGM's are also well suited to diesel vehicles as they tend to deliver higher cranking amps at lower temps over conventional batteries.

 

Diesel tech remained pretty static until the mid 90's when it started to finally advance. Where as Gasoline engine tech has been getting progressively better since the early 80's, so there is still a fair amount of room for improvement, and with more players in the NA market diesel tech will advance faster. We all win in that instance.

 

With Diesels just starting to become more mainstream in NA , we hopefully will start to see small Diesel Hybrid cars, and that would be the best of both worlds. As it stands Hybrids offer great fuel economy in the city , but tend fall down on fuel economy on the highway with a Diesel as the IC power plant it would basically negate this shortcoming and hybrids would really see their full potential.

 

GM still has lots to learn about Diesel cars in the NA market. As the Cruze matures I'm sure it will improve. GM is relying on Fiat and it's subsidiary's for all it's auto diesel engine designs globally. Chryco now being owned by Fiat has their extensive experience to help them along. I think the first Chryco auto diesel offering in NA will be more refined than the Cruze. Provided the clowns at Chrysler NA don't goon it up on it's way to market.

 

Ford has extensive experience with auto diesel design in part due to it's partner ship with PSA, I think they are waiting to do the job right after the AVL designed Navistar supplied variant of their VT365 (the 6.0L Power Stroke) fiasco. The 6.7 was also designed by AVL but this time directly in conjunction with Ford and not using Navistar as a middle man that had the engine primarily designed around their own applications and not necessarily Ford's needs.

 

The first Ford offering in NA will likely be a proven engine that can meet NA stringent emissions. They currently do not have such an animal in the stable, in a couple years the updated DW10 or DW 12 tuned for NA will likely fit the bill. They played it safe and used the venerable ZSD 3.2L Duratorque Diesel as I predicted they would in the NA Transit, to insure there would be minimal to no issues. I doubt they are going to rush in with a diesel car and will likely be the last of the big 3 three to offer an auto Diesel in NA. Ford needs to play it safe and do it right and see the direction auto diesels are going to go in NA, as the 6.0L fiasco is still pretty fresh in peoples memories and they do not need a repeat of that, give that a few more years for those bad memories to fade ,and they will eventually join the club.

 

 

As for winter got a crap load snow early on this year. Temps have been average, until the last couple weeks that have been unseasonably warm.

Edited January 25, 2014 by matthewq4b

[RichardJensen]

re: fuel pumps.

 

That's quite odd. In twenty years of driving late model cars, I have only replaced one fuel pump. What are they doing to your gas up there?

 

re: resale

 

Diesel resale is a bit higher than gas here, but for, say, the VW Jetta, when you factor in the much worse than average reliability and much higher than average cost of repairs, I'm not sure that your money ahead of a gas powered product from a more dependable manufacturer, despite the higher resale.

 

And I think higher resale is better for the first buyer than the second. I think you're looking at a scenario where the resale is a lagging indicator of quality (as with Hondas, Toyotas), in other words, you're paying for a quality advantage that is not recovered, on average.

 

re: Ford diesel

 

I agree--I expect Ford will be the last of the domestics to field a diesel passenger car. And I don't think it's strictly because of the Powerstroke fiasco, as I doubt that your typical Focus/Fiesta customer even knows about the Powerstroke family. I think it's because Ford can hit their CAFE targets more effectively with PIHs and conventional hybrids--I think diesels are still a negative value-add--unless you're talking German vehicles--they cost more to provide than they add in perceived value to a vehicle.

 

With the German marques, I have no idea why these companies have such a loyal base of diesel customers, aside from a certain self-satisfied obscurantism---'look at me, I'm not just driving a VW, I'm driving a VW *diesel*'

 

re: winter

 

It's been miserable here, or what would pass for unseasonably warm up there. I haven't started any trucks on fire yet, but I did want to burn my electric bill in order to save on heating costs.

Edited January 26, 2014 by RichardJensen

[jpd80]

Diesel cars are very much a niche in North America and I can see why most domestic brands are focusing on efficient gasoline engines

to maximize sales and return on investment. the only areas I can see diesel making real inroads is in medium and large Utilities and maybe trucks.

I think most other products will evolve as either efficient DI turbo gasoline or hybrid and please the majority of the market.

 

Sorry to sound dismissive of diesel cars but without a heavy influence of high fuel prices and taxes driving it, I can't see diesel making much of a dent.

As Richard said above, Fod can hit its marks with CAFE without employing diesels in US sedans and Utilities.

 

Re weather,

Summer time here AUS with the temperature between 35-40C recently and the accompanying late afternoon thunderstorms every other day..

i feel for you guys buried in snow, the weather here is quite hot and unsettled.

 

1-26-14 is Australia Day, all my honorary Aussie mates on BON are allowed to take Monday off as the public holiday and relax..

Edited January 26, 2014 by jpd80

[matthewq4b]

re: fuel pumps.

 

That's quite odd. In twenty years of driving late model cars, I have only replaced one fuel pump. What are they doing to your gas up there?

 

re: resale

 

Diesel resale is a bit higher than gas here, but for, say, the VW Jetta, when you factor in the much worse than average reliability and much higher than average cost of repairs, I'm not sure that your money ahead of a gas powered product from a more dependable manufacturer, despite the higher resale.

 

And I think higher resale is better for the first buyer than the second. I think you're looking at a scenario where the resale is a lagging indicator of quality (as with Hondas, Toyotas), in other words, you're paying for a quality advantage that is not recovered, on average.

 

re: Ford diesel

 

I agree--I expect Ford will be the last of the domestics to field a diesel passenger car. And I don't think it's strictly because of the Powerstroke fiasco, as I doubt that your typical Focus/Fiesta customer even knows about the Powerstroke family. I think it's because Ford can hit their CAFE targets more effectively with PIHs and conventional hybrids--I think diesels are still a negative value-add--unless you're talking German vehicles--they cost more to provide than they add in perceived value to a vehicle.

 

With the German marques, I have no idea why these companies have such a loyal base of diesel customers, aside from a certain self-satisfied obscurantism---'look at me, I'm not just driving a VW, I'm driving a VW *diesel*'

 

re: winter

 

It's been miserable here, or what would pass for unseasonably warm up there. I haven't started any trucks on fire yet, but I did want to burn my electric bill in order to save on heating costs.

 

 

 

 

You have to compare apples to apples here. You have to compare the same models in Diesel and then gas to accurately gauge resale price difference.

You can't just compare a Jetta to a Toyota. But have to compare resale on a non diesel VW, Mercedes, Jeep etc. to the gas powered equivalent

Diesel engines typically are more heavily built and suffer far fewer internal engine failures, in most instances it's the body/interior that wears out before the driveline. (6.0L and 6.4L excepted)

The Jeep diesels tend to fetch any where from $5k to $8K more than their gasoline counterparts here. VW the spread is not so great. Mercedes show similar re-sales to the Jeeps.

Where diesel resale really takes hold is with the second owner. Here diesel cars 8 to10 years old typically fetch about 100% more than a similarly optioned model in gasoline. Just have a look at the auto ads here and compare like vehicles with diesels and with out.

 

 

Diesel repair and mait driveline bills over the life span of vehicle are lower than Gasoline engines, remember longer oil change intervals, no coil packs to burn out, no plugs etc and doing spark plugs is nothing like it used to be, now it can be a major PIA.

All the diesel vehicles I have owned I have never replaced an elec fuel pump, Mech ones yes usually after they hit 20 plus years of age.

 

The latest diesels are pretty much back to where they were in terms of reliability and longevity pre-emission and ULSD clamp down. Remember the first few years of emissions on Gasoline engines trashed reliability and longevity on them also, that is just part of the learning curve. You've been lucky with fuel pumps, remember the fuel cools and lubricates the in tank pumps and lets face it Gasoline is not a great lubricant even less so with the mandated ethanol content ,now the brushes and coms tend to get ate even faster. Cars that get lots of hours on them (city driving) eat them more frequently for the same driven mileage over vehicles that have lower hours but possibly higher mileage. For elec fuel pumps mileage means nothing it's the hours that dictate the life span.

 

 

 

We have to face reality there are far more options for diesel power than there were just a few years ago. The segment is expanding and is expanding faster than hybrids.

So define niche vehicles? I'd say they are not niche vehicles now, with GM, Jeep,VW, Mercedes (across most their model line up ), BMW, and soon Chrysler and the Fiat 500 offering Diesel options.

Not really niche any more but not quite full scale mainstream either but getting there.

 

I think we are past the point of Niche, they are no longer reserved for a select few niche vehicles but are appearing in the mainstream vehicles and Mercedes has a diesel option for most of their models. There are far more diesel options available than there are model options for Hybrids.

 

And do not dismiss the Powerstroke fiasco to quick, that hit Ford hard and has caused them to loose market segments they still have not recovered. You can see the extra care that was spent on the 6.7. Open the hood look underneath, you can see a lot time and money was spent on design and execution, making things tidier and easier to work on in vehicle , things are much much better laid out. This was not a just stuff it in any we can like the 6.0L and 6.4L were. Ford learned a hard lesson from the 6.0L. Any goodwill they earned with the 7.3 they burned with the 6.0L very much like GM did with the 5.7L diesel. Least to pull those you did not have to half disassemble the vehicle. Ford is not going to take any chances on a lower end Diesel car in NA until others have paved the way and learns from their mistakes. Ford is to close off the heels of the mess the last decade to do anything less.

 

As for the smartest place to start with a diesel, compacts are the best place to start. All the big 3 currently utilize Diesels of about 2.0L in other markets (Fiat in Chryco's case) but V6 engines of about to 3.0L they do not. Ford would need to design a whole new motor and transmission for say the Explorer and the likes, as would GMC and Chryco, Fiat has the 3.0L V6 in the Grand Cherokee but I do not think this engine is used in transverse applications so again a new tranny would be required. So the safest and easiest place to start is in the compacts. All the big three (Fiat in Chryco's case) have diesels of about 2.0L already in production that are currently being used in NA used platforms in other markets. That is the lowest risk, lowest investment place to start. GM is testing the waters with the Cruze for exactly that reason low investment costs and minimal risk as they are using a known quantity.

 

Jeep had good success with diesels in Canada when they were using the Mercedes 3.0L OM642 V6 in the Grand Cherokee and Commander and the 2.8 and 3.7 VM Motori (now Fiat) diesels in the Liberty.

Jeep has now put a diesel back in the GC and it out performs all others in the market segment in terms of fuel economy and cost of operation (Including exhaust treatment) and this is with the higher average costs of diesel, it even bested the Mercedes Diesel GLK , it way trashed the Ecoboost V6 in the Explorer to the tune of about $700 a year in savings and If you do lots of city driving that number only increases.

 

The fuel economy gap that narrowed in the diesels with the clamp down on emissions is gone now, and they are actually increasing the spread they had previously. On top of that Diesels have lower CO2 emissions over gas units and now lower particulate than gasoline DI. It is only a matter of time before DI gasoline engines get hit with particulate filters and then any advantage they have will completely evaporate. Diesel will never out sell gasoline in NA but it is going to be a larger chunk of the market in years to come it has pretty much busted the niche market thing now. In 08 the only light duty diesels available were in 3/4 and one ton trucks, the Jeep GC the E Class Mercedes, R class Mercedes, and the VW Jetta, at that time it was certainly a niche option. The availability for diesel optioned models has more than doubled since then and is only going to increase as time goes on.

 

 

Matthew

Edited January 26, 2014 by matthewq4b

[jpd80]

Something to remember with increasing fuel economy, going form 15 mpg to 20 mpg versus going from 40mpg to 45 mpg

seems the same until you look at it in terms of gallons saved per 10,000 miles. one becomes a 25% saving compared to an 11% saving

 

I think this is the problem with putting an ulra-efficient diesel engine into an already efficient gasoline vehicle, the savings are nowhere

as much as they would be in say, large SUVs like Expedition, Navigator Explorer ect.....in those vehicles, you have the ability to tow

decent loads and still achieve good fuel economy. There is a much more easily identified cost saving to the buyer.

Edited January 26, 2014 by jpd80

[RichardJensen]

 

 

You have to compare apples to apples here. You have to compare the same models in Diesel and then gas to accurately gauge resale price difference.

 

I never denied the price difference.

 

But I did point out that the price difference is probably unjustified on a Jetta. Paying a premium for a Diesel product that is unreliable, and then paying a premium for the fuel (in the US), and then bragging to your friends about how much higher your resale is is just silly, if you're paying more per mile anyway.

 

Regarding the cost of maintenance, well, let's just say that the average second owner of a vehicle might see lower maintenance costs, but I doubt very much that the average first owner will. Talking about plugs in particular---I'd love to know the percentage of new car buyers that *never* change plugs because they never keep cars that long. You, replacing a 20 year old fuel pump in a panther is a bit atypical. And you simply cannot talk up the increased reliability of today's diesel engines without acknowledging 100,000+ mile spark plugs, 10,000 mile oil changes, etc. Gas engines, over the first five to eight years of ownership are, for conventional use, probably as cheap to maintain as a diesel.

 

I mean, there's a *reason* that US commercial fleets are beginning to use more gas engines in medium duty---savings in TCO.

 

re: niche

Look at passenger cars: You have the German marques and the Chevy Cruze. If anything, diesel is still more of a niche in terms of absolute sales volume than hybrids are. If diesel is not a niche, than hybrids are even less of one.

 

re: powerstroke

 

I never asserted that FORD was not affected by the PS disaster, but your average Fiesta and Focus buyer knows *nothing* of this, and will not look at a Focus diesel and think, "Oh, wait, isn't this a diesel from that company that sold a very unreliable diesel in a 3/4 ton truck ten years ago?"

Edited January 26, 2014 by RichardJensen

[rscalzo]

u have the German marques and the Chevy Cruze.

 

That seems to mean little when sales across the line in VW is down 20 percent. The Cruize is in the top 20 in sales numbers. Diesals are never going to be big sellers here. The initial costs and the need to keep the vehicle longer than the average driver does makes them a bad sell.

 

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesC

[matthewq4b]

 

I never denied the price difference.

 

But I did point out that the price difference is probably unjustified on a Jetta. Paying a premium for a Diesel product that is unreliable, and then paying a premium for the fuel (in the US), and then bragging to your friends about how much higher your resale is is just silly, if you're paying more per mile anyway.

 

Regarding the cost of maintenance, well, let's just say that the average second owner of a vehicle might see lower maintenance costs, but I doubt very much that the average first owner will. Talking about plugs in particular---I'd love to know the percentage of new car buyers that *never* change plugs because they never keep cars that long. You, replacing a 20 year old fuel pump in a panther is a bit atypical. And you simply cannot talk up the increased reliability of today's diesel engines without acknowledging 100,000+ mile spark plugs, 10,000 mile oil changes, etc. Gas engines, over the first five to eight years of ownership are, for conventional use, probably as cheap to maintain as a diesel.

 

I mean, there's a *reason* that US commercial fleets are beginning to use more gas engines in medium duty---savings in TCO.

 

re: niche

Look at passenger cars: You have the German marques and the Chevy Cruze. If anything, diesel is still more of a niche in terms of absolute sales volume than hybrids are. If diesel is not a niche, than hybrids are even less of one.

 

re: powerstroke

 

I never asserted that FORD was not affected by the PS disaster, but your average Fiesta and Focus buyer knows *nothing* of this, and will not look at a Focus diesel and think, "Oh, wait, isn't this a diesel from that company that sold a very unreliable diesel in a 3/4 ton truck ten years ago?"

 

 

 

As for the Jetta and VW in general reliability has never been a strong point and believe me I know I owned a diesel Jetta 23 years ago the car was a complete POS the only good part of the car was the engine it was dead nuts reliable and bullet proof but the rest of the car was junk, So lets stick to comparing apples to apples. In a Diesel Jetta your costs per mile are going to be lower than gasoline one. Any jetta compared to just about anything your costs are going to be higher and reliability lower regardless of what engine is in it. To buy an unreliable vehicle because it offers a diesel is just shear stupidity and no one is going to argue that point. But given the option of the same or better power with lower operating costs over the life of the vehicle with equivalent chassis reliability most people are gonna choose the option that offers them cheaper operation and that is what a Diesel options allow. So lets stick to the same models when comparing resale. There are so many variables that affect resale on various models in the same class some times the higher resale is actually justified some times it is not. But diesels have consistently shown better resale and higher demand over the gasoline counterparts of the same model.

 

To sum it up Diesels offer lower operating costs, longer life span, less impact to the environment, higher reliability, better resale, and higher demand as used vehicles. That is fact.

Not necessarily the perception, even today a good chunk of people in NA still perceive diesels as smelly smoky, gutless, unreliable vehicles, all stuff that was true 20 plus years ago.

Regardless of fact that is the perception , but it is changing.

 

The 6.0L fiasco did not help Ford's plans for a diesels in NA, it was in the works, but the 6.0L fubar nixed it really quick. Remember it was all over the news, the multiple law suits Navistar threatening to stop shipping engines, Ford breaking ties and sourcing their own engine, the whole bit was widely publicised. The pinto fiasco was 40 years ago but is still is common knowledge, the Edsel 60 years ago and is still a butt of jokes. Ford has had some spectacular failures in the past, the public may have a short memory but Ford does not, for failures as they have cost Ford billions of dollars. You really think that the 6.0L fubar move did not influencing their direction? The care and detail spent on the 6.7L under hood was way above and beyond, the attention to detail was equivalent to what you see in Mercedes and the like. If they do an auto diesel it will when it can be guaranteed to sell and will be built proof.

 

Operating costs for the newest diesels are lower than equivalent gasoline units right from day one. The newer diesels have much longer service intervals. In light service oil change intervals in the newest diesels can be extended out to 15 or 18K miles. Almost ten years ago auto diesels were at 10K mile oil changes in some applications

 

Light Commercial fleets started the move to gasoline power when Diesel no longer offered a fuel cost advantage and mait costs and down time went through the roof this happened with the with the introduction of emission controls the 6.0L was designed cause of emission requirements the base engine structure was more than solid enough but it was the emission gear that caused the issues. Gasoline engines experienced the exact same issues in the mid 70's in cars and the early 80's in light trucks, the engines themselves were solid enough it was all emissions crap that caused the issues.

 

The Diesel reliability issue is now a non issue and the fuel economy advantage is moving back to where it was and even exceeding it. It will take a few years for fleets to move back to diesel's just as it took a few years for them to move away from them after the cost advantage was lost. It takes time for business's to gather enough empirical financial data to justify changes.

It will be 2016 or 2017 before we see fleets buyers move back in to light truck diesels in large numbers.

 

And I never mentioned a Panther now did I ? so lets stick to the matter at hand. The last fuel pump I did was in the 85 Chev 5/4 ton P/U with a 6.2, the original finally gave up the ghost this past summer. The one pervious was in a friends 09 Ford focus.

 

 

As for Niche, there are more models and market segments total available with a diesel option then there are models available with Hybrid options Yes Hybrid options are diverse in terms of manufactures but not model segments.. You want a compact with diesel you got it. You want a compact mid size or full size suv with a diesel you got it. midsize sedan available. CUV yup later this year, Full size sedan available. Cargo van available, Subcompact yup , really the only segments with out a diesel are compact trucks and 1/2 tons and sports or GT cars. Yes most of the diesel options are available in German cars but they have always led with diesel tech so it makes the most sense that they will be offering the options ahead of every one else. That is just logic and can be said about many pieces of automotive tech, those that develop or lead in it will be the ones that offer it across the model line up first.

 

And absolutely compacts are not the best place to be offering a diesel option first, the rate of return for operational cost savings is much lower than say Mid size SUV's or CUV's. They are the best place to offer them as they will offer the best return on cost of operation. But as noted before Ford, GM, Chryco etc do not have existing power plants or transmissions in production to fill most of those applications. But they do have engines and tranny's in production for the compact's, even though that segment is going to be the absolute toughest sell for diesel power, it is the cheapest to enter in to both terms of availably and emission compliance as you are using small displacement engines.

 

This makes it a double edged sword, even though it is the cheapest segment to move in to, it presents the highest risk of failure. GM really did pick the toughest segment in to which to launch their first auto diesel. But if it does manage to get a foot hold it will help justify the multiple millions required for developing a clean sheet design Diesel driveline for their CUV SUV market, as it will then have some solid justification behind it.

 

I think most of us here agree that the best place for a diesel power plant is in the CUV SUV segment, as it offers the greatest opportunity for operational cost savings and lowering CAFE. But I doubt many currently would think that it would be wise to spend multiple millions on a shot in the dark, would the American public embrace these power plants in numbers great enough to justify the expense I can't even hazard a guess at that, yes diesels are gaining traction in NA but has it advanced enough to currently justify the expense? And don't be too quick to say it will never happen ,as never is a very very long time.

 

I think GM is testing the waters with the Cruze, and hoping it will help answer some of these question. Is the expense is justified to place a Diesel in their mid size CUV's and SUV's ?. If that is what they are doing it is damn smart move on their part hit the toughest sell segment and if it succeeds you're pretty much guaranteed it is gonna pay off for the CUV's and SUV's. If it fails why risk it, wait a few years then try again. The pay off could potentially be very good for GM on many fronts for them if this does not blow up in their face. They are a bit stuck with advertising the benefits of the Diesel as it is free advertising for every one else offering them. And the advantage it offers in the Cruze is minimal at best.

 

Either way it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Matthew

[matthewq4b]

That seems to mean little when sales across the line in VW is down 20 percent. The Cruize is in the top 20 in sales numbers. Diesals are never going to be big sellers here. The initial costs and the need to keep the vehicle longer than the average driver does makes them a bad sell.

 

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesC

 

 

That could be read numerous ways.

 

Lets hit it this way

 

Mercedes has seen basically a 30% increase of car sales, they also offered in 2013 more Diesel options for cars than any one else.

They also have been showing consistent gains in market sare since expanding their diesel line up

 

So by that logic it must be because they are offering more diesel options.

 

Or maybe:

 

VW has nose dived due to abysmal reliability.

 

And Mercedes has increased due improved reliability.

 

Or:

 

VW's latest styling has turned off buyers

 

And Mercedes latest styling has attracted buyers.

 

 

 

Stats can be twisted any way you want, so really quoting stats with out the empirical data backing or making them up, is worse than saying nothing at all.

 

Matthew

Edited January 27, 2014 by matthewq4b

[RichardJensen]

Here's the bottom line, Matthew:

 

I've been hearing these arguments and the 'passenger diesels are right around the corner' line since 2008. Time has not been kind to those predictions.

 

Eventually, maybe, passenger diesels will become more than a niche (and there are more hybrid passenger cars sold per year than diesel passenger cars)-------more than a primarily German method of meeting CAFE in lieu of hybrid systems-------but I haven't seen it yet, and there is absolutely no indication that it is going to happen in the next two or three years.

Edited January 28, 2014 by RichardJensen

[matthewq4b]

OK lets roll back to this article how many Diesel options where there in light duty vehicles excluding Pick ups, in June of 08 for cars and light trucks? That's just over 5.5 years. Not quite the life cycle of a platform.

 

We can sum this up pretty quick 2 manufactures encompassing 3 divisions Mercedes-Jeep and VW with 5 models total. Mercedes E320 Mercedes R320, Jeep GC VW Jetta VW Beetle.

 

Today now all of the big 3 offer them GM with the Cruze Ford in the Transit, Chyco with the Jeep GC Mercedes in everything but the C Class B class and sports cars Mercedes also offers hybids. VW in everything except the Tiguan and Eos, and don't' forget VW also offers Hybrids BMW has them in the 3 series and their SUV's. BMW also has largest selection of hybrids of any manufacture, so the statement " primarily a German method of meeting CAFE in lieu of hybrid systems" is a bit of a stretch.

 

 

Diesels are gaining traction and doing so at a faster rate than most expected, there are more diesels models available in NA for 2014 than there ever has been in the past and the growth has been gathering speed. How many new hybrids hit the show rooms for 2013 and 2014? Every year that passes sees more diesels models introduced than the previous one, for 2104 there have been more Diesel models introduced than there were available total in 08 or 09. I'd say that is a pretty damn good increase in just 5.5 years.

 

And there is the actual bottom line.

 

The Asian manufactures were and are having issues getting their diesels to meet the stringent U.S Emission requirements and even back then Nissan was working with Renault, that is what killed Nissan's plans, the cost (and Nissan is bad example they can hardly get decent fuel mileage out of gas units let alone hi tech diesels ) , but no surprise there the Asians have always had issues meeting U.S emissions even with gasoline engines we seen this in the 70's in the 80's and again the 90's, on more than one occasion they got fined for not meeting emission requirements and doctoring testing, and they currently still build the dirtiest gasoline engines on the market, plus they are heavily invested in hybrid technology, more so than any one else. So no surprise we have no Diesels from the Asian manufactures, in fact they are the only ones not at the table.

 

One article about one model that never made it to market is reaching at best. And where did I say the next 2 or 3 years that is your time line not mine we will see more introductions over the next 5 years but the rate of new available diesel models is growing faster I think than any one predicted myself included.

 

We will need at least another full model cycle before they will be available in most all segments from most all manufactures. The Germans are just about at the end of life cycle of the current crop of diesels and will be due for new engines in a couple years. Mercedes diesels are on the short end of 10 year old designs..Ford is using an older engine as is GM. So they are close to due for new engines. Fiat has one Diesel specifically built to handle the emission standards and take advantage of the latest diesel tech and it has trashed the latest's gasoline V6's in terms of operational cost and emissions and I imagine as it is tweaked it will get better. Everybody is still using the first Gen of emission diesels with ULSD (excepting Fiat) ,the next generation of Diesel engines will be a quantum leap forward in terms of fuel mileage and emissions and those are the ones we are going to see in much wider spread use. As they will be the ones that will be able to take full advantage of the lessons learned in the first gen.

 

Like it or not Diesels are making substantial gains each and every year that goes by, we are just at the cusp of it and the next 2 years are going to tell us if takes right off or if it retreats like it did in the 80's

I feel this time around they are getting it right, and more importantly have the tech required to make them a more efficient, cost effective viable alternative to gasoline power in most segments.

 

Matthew

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RichardJensen]

So you're going to call the Transit a passenger car? You're going to play those kind of games?

 

You're going to do that to obscure this fact:

 

One manufacturer has entered the diesel passenger car market in the last six years, and they sold a whopping 3,000 diesels last year.

 

And in case you've forgotten, Bob Lutz was promising a diesel, almost seven years ago, even as he was dissing diesels and Honda was promising a diesel by 2009 eight years ago. Chrysler said they were going to put a diesel in the Ram 1500 six years ago, and they're only now finally--kind of--getting around to it. Then there were GM's promises of a Silverado half-ton diesel.

 

So, six to eight years after all that bluster, where are we?

 

One manufacturer has added one engine to one passenger car (Cruze), and one manufacturer has plans to add one engine to one truck (Ram), and one manufacturer has plans to add one engine to one commercial vehicle (Transit).

 

Are there more BMWs selling exactly the same diesel engine than there were in 2008? Yes. Does this volume, in sum, amount to a hill of beans? It does not. The Prius hybrid powertrain, all by itself, outsold every passenger car diesel engine combined.

[RichardJensen]

where did I say the next 2 or 3 years that is your time line not mine

 

the next 2 years are going to tell us

 

Looks like it's your timeline now too.

[matthewq4b]

So you're going to call the Transit a passenger car? You're going to play those kind of games?

 

You're going to do that to obscure this fact:

 

One manufacturer has entered the diesel passenger car market in the last six years, and they sold a whopping 3,000 diesels last year.

 

And in case you've forgotten, Bob Lutz was promising a diesel, almost seven years ago, even as he was dissing diesels and Honda was promising a diesel by 2009 eight years ago. Chrysler said they were going to put a diesel in the Ram 1500 six years ago, and they're only now finally--kind of--getting around to it. Then there were GM's promises of a Silverado half-ton diesel.

 

So, six to eight years after all that bluster, where are we?

 

One manufacturer has added one engine to one passenger car (Cruze), and one manufacturer has plans to add one engine to one truck (Ram), and one manufacturer has plans to add one engine to one commercial vehicle (Transit).

 

Are there more BMWs selling exactly the same diesel engine than there were in 2008? Yes. Does this volume, in sum, amount to a hill of beans? It does not. The Prius hybrid powertrain, all by itself, outsold every passenger car diesel engine combined.

 

 

The Transit is not just a dedicated cargo utility vehicle. It Will be available in passenger configurations. Sounds like a passenger vehicle, even if the bulk of the sales are going to be commercial it still going to be available in a light duty passenger wagon configuration.

And that is what Ford is calling it, a Passenger Wagon it is not just a dedicated commercial cargo hauler. I Imagine the Diesel will be a popular option for airport shuttles and the like and individuals with extremely large family's.

 

Also 7 to 8 years ago no one had a clue how difficult it would be to get the diesels to meet the new emission standards with the available tech at the time and do so cost effectively and reliably. Every single manufacture with out exception had issues, some major, with the new diesel emissions and ULSD, whether it be light duty auto and truck or medium and heavy truck all have had issues, in fact the hurdles were so great it caused Caterpillar to quit supplying engines to the on hyway medium and heavy truck segment all together. International had the benefit of a partnership with AVL in fact they just contracted them to do what needed done. Mack had the tech available from Volvo, Cummins had the advantage of already selling in the EU market for bus engines and the like so already had some experience. Then there is Cat, Caterpillar was not paired with an EU company nor was selling emission engines anywhere, and had already had experienced a crap load of issues with their first electronic diesels, they were so far behind they had no chance. They even tried to force with law suits a longer period of emission reductions to allow them the time needed to achieve the goals with their diesels. They failed in these endeavours and subsequently just exited the market all together. They now only build diesels for off hyway applications, they went from on hyway market leader to exiting it altogether.

 

I would say everyone was way overly optimistic that they would be able to get the diesels to meet the emissions and still be able to do so cost effectively and retain the efficiency and reliability advantage. Reliability suffered greatly with these new requirements in all diesels the only company that did not take a huge huge hit in reliability was Mercedes but they had been working on solutions to these issues since the late 90's early/2000's they had a 4 or 5 year jump on every one else hence the reason they have more diesel options today than any one else.

 

No one had any idea how great the hurdle's would be. This was a double whammy the crack down on emissions and the reduction of sulphur in the fuel a critical component needed for the lubrication and cooling of the high pressure fuel systems. International/AVL got around this by using the motor oil to hydraulically pressurize the fuel in the 6.0L/VT365, that at the time was seen as a more reliable option to a high pressure fuel pump, The Europeans worked at modifying their high pressure fuel pumps and injectors and even then they initially were experiencing premature failures cause of the ULSD, hence the reason International/AVL used the motor oil based hydraulic pressurization system. But that opened up a whole new can of worms with running 600PSI plus motor oil in parts of the engine. The HP oiling system in the 6.0L seen several revision during it's short tenure.

 

This Diesel emission clamp down would have been akin to cutting out lead and introducing emission standards of the mid nineties all in one shot for the 1975 model year for gasoline engines. The technical challenges in getting reliability and fuel economies back to previous levels where far greater than anyone predicted and some suffered greatly for it, if it had been a progressive clamp down like was done for gasoline and not just a hammer drop we potentially could have seen some of these promises made for diesel power already on the market.

 

This over optimism is not new in the auto industry and we have seen it time and time again you should know this by now. Cadillac / GM were predicting multiport fuel injection across the board by 82/83 after the first caddy's sported this in the mid 70's, then the reality sunk in and the tech advances required and the dollars needed to make it work reliably were out of reach. Did they get there, yup just took way longer than they promised. So given that kind of time line we are right on track from where the promises were made for the diesels. The plans just got delayed until the tech and cost of doing so be came viable. Just as it did with multiport fuel injection for gasoline. Again the Japanese were lagging and where still offering carbs on some vehicles long after (in to the 90's) the big 3 had fully moved to Electronic fuel injection. So it is no surprise they are not at the table once again.

 

It is easy to say oh well they promised this and they promised that 7 or 8 years ago and sure that is what they intended, but what they intended and what was realistic at the time did not match. This was not a failure of perceived marketability or even desire but a failure of realizing the tech to achieve this cost effectively and reliably was just not available, We should thankful that most of these plans were not followed through on as we would have had a repeat of the 1980's and the 6.0L, crappy unreliable diesel vehicles. Everyone with out exception underestimated the difficulty of maintaining the reliability and efficiency advantage of Diesel with the new emissions requirements and the ULSD fuel.

 

6 to 8 years later we are at the point where this stuff can now be done reliably and cost effectively and still maintain or exceed the efficiency advantage. We are now at the point where those promises in reality could actually be fulfilled, they are now starting to do the things that were talked about 7 and 8 years ago.

It easy to say they promised this and promised that and where are they. But they were making promises that in the real world could just not be followed through on. Not that the auto industry and auto exec's has ever done that before, heavens no.

 

And please do not quote our of context. "we are just at the cusp of it and the next 2 years are going to tell us if takes right off or if it retreats like it did in the 80's" The next 2 years are going to be the litmus test. No where did say in 2 years is the time line. In fact what I did say was "We will need at least another full model cycle before they will be available in most all segments from most all manufactures" so that sounds like 5 years minimum to me, not 2.

 

 

Also in the last 6 years GMC and Jeep re-entered the market (They dropped their GC diesel after the split with Mercedes) The GC Diesel also had the highest tow rating in the class even out stripping hemi powered units. So there are other diesel advantages beyond just fuel economy. I personally know 2 individuals that bought Diesel GC's for the available tow rating, they use them to pull 26 and 27 foot travel trailers. It saved them the purchase of a dedicated tow vehicle, but they are not slugging them through mountainous or really hilly terrain either. Ford for the first time since the 1980's has offered a diesel in something other than the E or F series, mind you the Transit is slated to replace the Econolines so in all reality that is a wash.

 

All those that were selling light auto Diesels prior to 08 and continued to do so have expanded their offerings many many times over, curiously they are also the ones that also had the tech advantage in the market. So to sum up, the segment availability for Diesels has not shrunk but expanded many times over and every year we are seeing more available options for diesel power than the year before. Yes they are still primarily limited to the manufactures that had diesels previously but they are also the ones that had the tech at hand, but that is the case with anything, and as stated, previously those that lead or develop tech will be the ones to offer it first, and that still has not changed.

 

 

 

 

Matthew

Edited January 29, 2014 by matthewq4b

[jpd80]

We're on the verge of a PHEV Focus that could be sold for $27,000 and give owners close to 27 miles on battery power

but let's dial that back to something simpler, a regular hybrid that gets Prius like 50/50 mpg for round $23,000.

 

It's easy to see why diesel has not rolled out anywhere as quick as some expected. hybrids and efficient gasoline engines

have been used to offer buyers an alternative to the expense of a diesel roll out. I'm betting that battery developments

will outstrip diesel technology in the next few years and gap it for use in medium-compact vehicles.

 

What happens in larger vehicles is anyone's guess, some people want/need diesels for specific applications

but I have a feeling that Ford and others will make a compelling case for continuing use of efficient gasoline engines.

Edited January 29, 2014 by jpd80