RichardJensen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) The Transit is not just a dedicated cargo utility vehicle. It Will be available in passenger configurations. Sounds like a passenger vehicle, even if the bulk of the sales are going to be commercial it still going to be available in a light duty passenger wagon configuration. And that is what Ford is calling it, a Passenger Wagon it is not just a dedicated commercial cargo hauler. I Imagine the Diesel will be a popular option for airport shuttles and the like and individuals with extremely large family's. segment availability for Diesels has not shrunk but expanded many times over and every year we are seeing more available options for diesel power than the year before. Yes they are still primarily limited to the manufactures that had diesels previously but they are also the ones that had the tech at hand, but that is the case with anything, and as stated, previously those that lead or develop tech will be the ones to offer it first, and that still has not changed. Well, come on Matthew, if the Transit is a passenger car, then *this* is a passenger car: And, in all fairness, there were similar predictions about hybrids: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2005-09-22/business/0509220184_1_mercury-mariner-hybrids-mercury-milan My opinion is that hybrids and diesel products are, at present, in similar situations: The customer base is a largely loyal group of early adopters that is growing, somewhat. As you state, the early adopters have an entrenched advantage (Ford and Toyota in hybrids, MB, VAG in diesel), and both products are far from mainstream. In both instances, people underestimated the cost of expanding availability. I don't think that either approach is going to hit some tipping point where suddenly, *everyone* will offer one--or where that powertrain option will suddenly become the most popular option. Edited January 30, 2014 by RichardJensen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) Given markets like California that expect volume auto makers to deliver increasing numbers of vehicles as ZEVs, maybe Ford and other manufacturers are wondering if that state based regulation begins to spread.. Edited January 30, 2014 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewq4b Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) We're on the verge of a PHEV Focus that could be sold for $27,000 and give owners close to 27 miles on battery power but let's dial that back to something simpler, a regular hybrid that gets Prius like 50/50 mpg for round $23,000. It's easy to see why diesel has not rolled out anywhere as quick as some expected. hybrids and efficient gasoline engines have been used to offer buyers an alternative to the expense of a diesel roll out. I'm betting that battery developments will outstrip diesel technology in the next few years and gap it for use in medium-compact vehicles. What happens in larger vehicles is anyone's guess, some people want/need diesels for specific applications but I have a feeling that Ford and others will make a compelling case for continuing use of efficient gasoline engines. I think we have just about hit the limit with current battery tech as long as batteries are based on Redox (oxidation/reduction) we are not going to see any major improvements. We have been messing with batteries (depending on the source) for centuries and possibly millennia but we have not moved away from Redox methodology. When we do get over that hurdle a practical electric vehicles will be viable. Currently that does not seem to happening any within the next decade or more, and we are hitting the limits with battery tech and are already getting in to some rather exotic and dangerous combinations not to mention exponentially more expensive to get the same AH out of a lighter package. But the basic fundamental principles we use have not changed since forever. Gasoline and Diesel advancements will continue to out pace battery tech for several more years yet as it has continued to do so. As for Hybrids the best alternative is to power them with diesel power plants, Besides the lower emissions there is a huge advantage in fuel efficiency over gasoline on the hyway cycle. You can achieve incredible fuel economies with a Diesel hybrid In fact a Prius type hybrid with a diesel IC would beat that 50/50 with existing tech but not at that price point. As you are doubling up costs a hybrid with an expensive IC engine would make for a cost prohibitive vehicle. But cost on the new diesels is falling as the tech gets standardized and more common place. And with the advent of DI Gas engines that cost advantage for gasoline is narrowing, stuff in the eventual DPF's they will be required to have and the advantage all but vanishes. I think eventually we will see diesel Hybrid's. But no idea when that will be. Matthew Edited January 30, 2014 by matthewq4b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewq4b Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well, come on Matthew, if the Transit is a passenger car, then *this* is a passenger car: And, in all fairness, there were similar predictions about hybrids: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2005-09-22/business/0509220184_1_mercury-mariner-hybrids-mercury-milan My opinion is that hybrids and diesel products are, at present, in similar situations: The customer base is a largely loyal group of early adopters that is growing, somewhat. As you state, the early adopters have an entrenched advantage (Ford and Toyota in hybrids, MB, VAG in diesel), and both products are far from mainstream. In both instances, people underestimated the cost of expanding availability. I don't think that either approach is going to hit some tipping point where suddenly, *everyone* will offer one--or where that powertrain option will suddenly become the most popular option. Nice try but I don't think to many if any families buy new school buses to move the brood. But they do buy things like Econolines, Sprinters and eventually the Transit. So nice try, but a but a bit of a fail on that one but it was cute none the less ;-). The Transit has marketability and a market (yes it is very small) for personal private non commercial sales as a people hauler. Yup Hybrids got caught in the same thing when the reality of the actual costs came to light, plans changed. With hybrids it is a pure technology cost thing and a rather big technical hurdle that currently has no realistic solution. To increase range or capacity they are moving in to more and more expensive battery packs with exotic materials and in turn are getting more dangerous, these things are are going to present disposal issues in the future. We already pay a $12 battery disposal tax on every auto battery you buy here. And many other jurisdiction are doing the same. It is only a matter of time before the Gov't starts hitting Hybrids, and I bet it will be more than $12. And yup I agree with ya every body underestimated the cost of expanding availability for diesel and hybrids. But diesel does offer one advantage over hybrids, lower costs to produce the only difference between diesel powered cars and their gasoline counterparts is the Engine/transmission all the other basic components are the same. Hybrids usually require extensive chassis modification accommodate the drive/storage systems and this invariably adds weight either with the battery pack or protection for the battery pack.. It is far cheaper for the manufacture to drop a diesel in place of a gasoline engine than it is convert a vehicle to Hybrid. I think this had a big impact on the availably of Hybrids, and think it still does today. Where I see things eventually ending up is smaller vehicles and some mid sized likely being Hybrids with some mid sized and larger vehicles being diesel. That would make the most sense, most smaller cars are not used extensively on the hyway and see more city cycle on average where hybrids excel, and diesel would have the advantage in some mid size and larger vehicles and especially SUV/CUV's for Hyway efficiency and towing capacity. I think that is how the market will eventually split. With gasoline available across the board. It really it is to early to tell for sure what is going to happen. But if the current trends continue diesels will be much more widely available in the not to far distant future. Hybrids are still a crap shoot if diesel can out strip or match Hybrids in fuel efficiency (in some segments they already do) they will displace them or if there is a some big break through in storage tech things could go the other way. The again who knows, maybe there will be a big advancement made with microbial fuel cells and we will all be powering our cars with poop. Matthew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) I think we have just about hit the limit with current battery tech as long as batteries are based on Redox (oxidation/reduction) we are not going to see any major improvements. We have been messing with batteries (depending on the source) for centuries and possibly millennia but we have not moved away from Redox methodology. When we do get over that hurdle a practical electric vehicles will be viable. Currently that does not seem to happening any within the next decade or more, and we are hitting the limits with battery tech and are already getting in to some rather exotic and dangerous combinations not to mention exponentially more expensive to get the same AH out of a lighter package. But the basic fundamental principles we use have not changed since forever. Gasoline and Diesel advancements will continue to out pace battery tech for several more years yet as it has continued to do so. Huge in roads being made with density of charge, mostly by change of substrate material and how it accepts charge. GM and Ford are about to commit billions more on Hybrid tech and a fair whack of that will be battery tech research. Gasoline and diesel ICEs have their place but unlike Europe with high fuel price and taxes, the pressure in th e USA is on manufacturers due to government legislation, buyers are not feeling the cost in their hip pocket like euros. As for Hybrids the best alternative is to power them with diesel power plants, Besides the lower emissions there is a huge advantage in fuel efficiency over gasoline on the hyway cycle. You can achieve incredible fuel economies with a Diesel hybrid In fact a Prius type hybrid with a diesel IC would beat that 50/50 with existing tech but not at that price point. As you are doubling up costs a hybrid with an expensive IC engine would make for a cost prohibitive vehicle. But cost on the new diesels is falling as the tech gets standardized and more common place. And with the advent of DI Gas engines that cost advantage for gasoline is narrowing, stuff in the eventual DPF's they will be required to have and the advantage all but vanishes. I think eventually we will see diesel Hybrid's. But no idea when that will be. Matthew There are issues with diesel on off emissions, apparently diesels go dirty on start up, I know that can be fixed but it's just another headache North American manufacturers are wanting to avoid. And that's what this si all about, how much economy is needed to satisfy X buyers. I put it too you Matthew that yes, diesel is efficient but without the added hurt of high fuel rices like Europe, the urgency and necessity to switch to ultra fuel economy vehicles across the board is just not there in nth America. Sure, you have a small percentage buying in but by and large, it's the same buyers who were seeking efficient vehicles before the crash but maybe presenting in a different way /segment. I'm not dismissing diesel outright, just seeing the US market in particular as preferential to better gasoline ICEs but still willing to give some alternatives a go - diesel, hybrids, EVs and whatever mix you'd care to dream up. The point is that diesel roll out is not happening as quick as the diesel advocates predicted - that's entirely due to the push back from pre efficient gasoline engines and 6-speed autos across a lot of current products - that easing of fuel costs along with stable gas prices is probably adding to the perception of minimizing diesel's perceived advantages. Ford has whole quiver of efficient diesel powered vehicles in Europe, the reason not one of them makes it to the USA is not because Ford is mean spirited irrational i- it's because Ford has chosen hybrid and Ecoboost as being more palatable to Nth American consumers, in other words, it's an easy sell and guaranteed to give Ford a return. It's easy to suggest that Ford/GM should try this or that diesel product without thinking of the impact on existing products that already have good sales, it's possible to simply trade one group of sales for another - that's the opportunity cost here, you could introduce diesel products with the very real possibility of seeing a loss due to internal competition and added costs, funding and resources ending up with a minus sum game... Matthew, with recent reports of very cold weather in the North America, I keep getting this vision of you all rugged up in oil skins and gloves, huddled around a single candle, trying to type on a keyboard... John Edited January 30, 2014 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-150 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ... The customer base is a largely loyal group of early adopters that is growing, somewhat. ... The definition of an early adopter is by their placement on the bell curve. That alone indicates that the growth is about to occur. Same for hybrids. Same for micro sized twin turbo engines. If people would seriously consider a 2.7L engine for a full sized pickup, regardless of what numbers say on paper, then anything is possible with powertrain purchases within the next 5 to 10 years. But that said, there are many that will not consider an undersized turbo engine anytime soon. This leads the door wide open for alternatives to achieve fuel economy, especially given that there is a price premium to all three (turbos, hybrids, diesels) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nice try but I don't think to many if any families buy new school buses to move the brood. But they do buy things like Econolines, Sprinters and eventually the Transit. So, you're saying that the Transit is a passenger car because a vanishingly small minority of families buy them for transportation? Then, by that logic, RVs are passenger cars because some retirees live in them and drive them everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) So, you're saying that the Transit is a passenger car because a vanishingly small minority of families buy them for transportation? Then, by that logic, RVs are passenger cars because some retirees live in them and drive them everywhere. And some people convert school buses to RV's, so by that logic, school buses are passenger cars. Edited January 30, 2014 by fordmantpw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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