bzcat

Next gen Escape based pickup truck is really going to be a Transit Connect with the back looped off (as both TC and Escape will be migrating to C2). It should have some global appeal besides the US. Ford will need a replacement for both the Courier (South America) and Bantom (South Africa). BTW, I never quite figure out why Ford has two completely different Fiesta based pickup truck... did the Ford Brasil guys never bother to check in with the Ford South Africa guys and say hey... you are working on the same thing we are!

Keep in mind that we are comparing a 3 year old car with a brand new model. Cruze went on sale in model year 2008 so by 2011 model year, it will be 3 years old... it's an aged and dated product by the time GM starts selling it in the US. The deck is stacked against the Cruze... GM doesn't have an existing pool of compact car buyers that will trade in for the new Cruze (Cobalt and Astra buyers are probably not coming back); plus it is a new name plate requiring a proper launch campaign, which GM is not good at. And besides Focus, it will also have to share the crowded marketing space with new Elantra and Jetta, which like the Focus, are existing car with strong name recognition. And not long after Cruze and Focus goes on sale, Honda will revamp the Civic... it's a tough and long road ahead for the Cruze.

Daily rental fleet is what really kills resale. Sales of mid trim or high trim models to large company or Govt agencies won't necessarily do any harm. All those Escape hybrids in fleets haven't exactly cratered the resale value on those cars.

Here would be the reply from Ford Basic crowd: You guys won't pay any real money for a truck so you are dead to us... and if you hang on long enough, we'll sell you a Transit cab/chassis pickup. Is that utilitarian enough? Extended cab 4x4 crowd [aka the Dude Bros]: Stop pretending you really like the Ranger and buy the F-150 you really want. We'll be selling the 3.7 v6 real soon... it will get better MPG than your Ranger and you won't need to justify your manhood at the next Dude Bros meeting. You can even swap out the grill with a Raptor grill. It will be a Dudette magnet. Sporttrac owners: D4 Explorer with the back loped off. We'll be calling it F-100 as to not conjure up images of Sporttrac but you'll know what it is when you see one... wink wink...

I don't see why this will be an issue. Mustang is already being assembled on the same line as CD3 (Flat Rock with Mazda6) despite having a completely platform. So I don't quite get your point... Going forward, most of Ford's plants in North America are/will be flexible and can handled a variety of build types. What you are describing is a purely manufacturing issue not a product development one. Ford can build very different vehicles in the same plant, even the same line. They have done it in lots of places and for many years. Whether Mustang stays on a dedicated platform or join forces with Falcon is really irrelevant (for the most part) to your point, which is where it can be assembled. That's a different question and one that is easy to answer... where ever Ford can find the capacity.

So what? It still means GM sold plenty of vehicles in China. If Ford had effective control of Chang'an's microvan division, I'm sure we all be counting it as part of Ford's sales. Just because Wuling is not an original GM brand doesn't mean it should be treated any differently than Buick or Chevy sales in China. GM has product development and marketing control of Wuling through its JV with SAIC (i.e. Wuling is majority owned by Shanghai GM JV). And if we decide not to count Wuling sales for GM, then we get into a much more complicated discussion about shareholding and effective control since SAIC now owns 51% of Shanghai GM (the JV entity that markets all GM brands in China, where GM used to own 50% but now only 49%)... technically, one can argue that GM has ZERO sales in China Wuling --> 50% owned by Shanghai GM --> 49% owned by GM

The "other 3" is probably Focus coupe/convertible (Capri?) Transit Connect (2nd generation) Mazda CX-5 (Escape/Mariner/Kuga clone) Or if we don't want to consider Mazda, maybe a Mercury version of Grand C-Max I think Lincoln versions of C car is all off the table for now.

Actually VW purchased Audi from Mercedes. NSU was added later. Autounion consisted of Audi, Horch, DKW, and Wanderer. NSU was never part of it until VW forced them to merge. In terms of production, Audi leads the pack. It sells more cars in Europe than Mercedes and BMW. Plus it is the dominant player in China, far outselling all other luxury car brands. Status depends on who you ask... Audi's customer profile in Europe and North America is pretty interesting. It is the only luxury car brands that is more preferred by people to the left of political spectrum than right, who generally buy most of the luxury cars.

With no plans to sell the 5 seat C-Max in the US, I don't see why Ford would need the "Grand" part of the name here. C-Max is ok name... I don't mind it. Especially if you think Ford will eventually sell the B-Max and S-Max here. Or they could just call it Focus ZXW... Which is fine too.

3.7's supposed "Lincoln exclusivity" was always going to be temporary (and truth be told, probably something fabricated on the internet forums :D ). The first 3.7 V6 model was actually Mazda CX-9. It beat the MKS by 2 whole model year (like almost 18 months). 3.7 gives Ford more flexibility and power at almost no sacrifice in MPG over 3.5. Since the US does not have displacement tax (not yet anyway!), I always figured that eventually the only 3.5 will be the Ecoboost version.

I can see that. Ford could always "split up" the European versions of C-car into Ford and Mercury models in the US. For example: Euro model --> US model Focus 4dr/5dr = Ford Focus 3dr = Mercury Lynx Focus coupe convertible = Mercury Capri Focus wagon = n/a (it won't fly in the US...) C-Max = Mercury Tracer Grand C-Max = Ford Kuga = Mercury Mariner n/a = Ford Escape (unique North America/Asia Pacific top hat based on Kuga)

3 door Focus is not a big seller even in Europe so I suspect it will be replaced by a Focus "coupe" (Capri maybe?). Think VW Scirocco or Renault Megane... I think it will be something similar to that.

I read that as the rest of the world will get Focus as 2012 model. We are getting 2011 Focus ahead of everyone else. By law, I don't think you can sell a "2012" model while still in calendar year 2010 so it's clear that the new Focus will be launched in the US as 2011 model.

Probably NYC in April

I think the race will be close, particularly as Ford has several new product launches and Toyota has only new (more like refreshed) Sienna and 4Runner. As far as individual models/segments, here is how I see the Ford vs. Toyota race play out in the US - 1. I can see Fiesta out selling Yaris and Scion xD combined right out of the gate. It's a much more compiling product and hits the demographic right (as opposed to Scion xD, which walked away from its original xA and xB target audience). Scion iQ is going to get lots of press but it is a niche car. 2. Focus will have a tough road as Toyota will surely up the incentive on the Corolla and Matrix. Also Hyundai has new Elantra and Chevy has the new Cobalt. But I would bet money that Ford will end up increasing its share in the C-segment with all new car. 3. C-Max will be an interesting test case for the minivan/tall wagon segment in the US. Mazda5 and Kia Rondo hasn't exactly set the sales chart on fire but both are niche brands in the US. Scion xB is probably C-Max's most important rival in the US follow by Chevy HHR. However, both are strictly 5 seaters so and it will be interesting to see how Ford position it in the market place. I think we'll likely see C-Max break this segment wide open. Particularly with Chevy Orlando and GMC version coming in 2011, it may become a very interesting segment with Ford having a head start and the only one with fresh product in 2010. 4. Fusion should maintain but capacity constrain in Mexico means Ford probably won't gain much market share here. 5. Taurus has only upside and really, Toyota Avalon is not going to put up a very difficult fight. 6. Escape will be hard to top after this year's near record run. It is also on its last model year so I don't think Ford will put in too much efforts to try to maintain the gains here. But it should still outsell RAV4 by a decent margin. CR-V vs. Equinox for the segment lead will be the story in 2010. Ford will have 2012 Escape ready in 2011 for battle royale. 7. Edge & Explorer is kind of an unknown. For sure Edge will continue to outsell Venza by a decent margin but I'm not sure how the new Explorer is going to do vs. the Highlander and 4Runner combo. Also, MKX vs. Lexus RX is probably looking to maintain rather than mount a serious challenge. 8. Flex and Mustang march to their own drum beat without out competition from Toyota but I think both should easily surpass 2009 sales. 9. Pickup trucks is going to be interesting. With Ranger winding down, Ford is going to take a market share hit but the truck is not that profitable (incentives) so it may be a wash. Will Toyota let lose the rebates on the Tundra? I think by the end of 2010, Toyota is going to be the new rebate king. 10. Supposedly, there will be a 2nd Prius model in late 2010 or early 2011... too early to tell sales impact but I would imagine there is starting to be some cannibalization of hybrid sales at Toyota if they keep duplicating. Ford's response (Focus hybrid) won't be ready in 2010 so it's a moot point that Toyota will continue to beat Ford in hybrid sales. However, Fusion and Escape hybrids should have another great year (but again, supply constrained by battery avails). I'm more interested to see the market reaction for BEV Transit Connet and Focus. Both will probably hit conventional retail channels (as oppose to Nissan Leaf's weird battery lease scheme) so Ford could potentially grab great PR and news headlines for being the first major OEM to sell volume BEV direct to customers (as opposed to hand picked "trial customers" like MINI).

Current EU Focus with powershift transmission is only limited to models with diesel engines. Gasoline models are still rowing along with CD4E... Fortunately, Ford can count on one hand the number of gasoline Focus with automatic transmission sold in Europe - it's like an unicorn... that build combination is rather unpopular there. Unfortunately, it makes for a rather uncompetitive product in Australia and Taiwan where automatic transmission is the mainstay, and almost all of Focus' Japanese gasoline powered competitor are sporting 5 speed autos. I fully expect the new Focus will have 6 speed powershift across the board since this is a "world" car and 4 speed auto in the US is a non-starter due to CAFE.

I see the Ford Ranger being replaced in the US market by 3 different vehicles: 1. Fleet buyers will probably end up with a Transit cab/chassis or Transit pickup. It just makes too much sense... more capable work vehicle, probably similar or better MPG, and ability to get fleet commonality with Transit vans (assuming Transit replaces E-150 as speculated). 2. Private buyers who currently are interested in Ranger I4 and probably wants a "small footprint" pickup will get the F-100, which I'm guess right now will be a D4 truck with Explorer front end and separate bed (i.e. like the Falcon) instead of integrated body like Ridgeline. It probably won't have the half chassis but the separate bed is just to preserve the "mental image" of a pickup truck. 2.0 Ecoboost base engine should return decent MPG. 3. Private buyers who currently are interested in Ranger V6 with occasional towing needs will be likely find the base F-150 with 3.7 V6 or mid-trim 3.5 Ecoboost to be a suitable substitute. They will get used to the bigger truck overtime. Ranger V6 and Explorer Sporttrac are not big sellers for a reason... this market is really small relative to the overall pickup truck market.

Just my guess... Detroit (January) 2011 Focus world debut 2011 C-Max North America debut 1.6 Ecoboost North America debut (Focus + C-Max) 2011 or 2012 Focus BEV "concept" 2011 Transit Connect BEV 2011 Edge 2011 Explorer 2011 MKX 2.0 Ecoboost North America debut (Edge + MKX) 2011 Super Duty 2011 Mustang V8 2011 F-150 5.0 2011 Police Interceptor Chicago (February) 2012 Focus hybrid/plug in hybrid "concept" 2012 Transit 2012 Mercury C-car concept 2012 F-150 3.5 Ecoboost 2011 or 2012 Mustang Cobra Geneva (March) 2012 Mondeo concept 2011 Focus European debut 2012 Capri/Focus coupe concept 2011 or 2012 B-Max New York (April) 2012 Fiesta 1.4 Ecoboost world debut 2012 Mustang "heritage" model (Bullitt, MACH 1 or Boss?) 2012 Mercury B-car (perhaps US-spec Ford B-Max) 2012 EcoSport 2012 Escape 2012 Mariner (Kuga) 2013 Fusion concept (also shown in Geneva) 2013 F-100 concept Paris (October) 2012 Kuga 2012 Mondeo production spec Los Angeles (November) 2012 Mercury C-car production spec 2013 Flex mid cycle update? 2013 Fusion production spec 2013 Milan?

3 shifts? Just guessing... but I'm sure Ford can crank them out if need be. Also, you may be misreading the situation here. There is no severe shortage of Taurus... just the SEL and SHO models. So the problem is the wrong build mix, not a capacity issue.

Same reason why there is 39 month lease... playing games with residual value. 39 and 27 month leases are typically offered early in the model year so that banks don't get stuck with an unreasonable residual value when the car is returned. To illustrate, take the 2010 Taurus for example. Let say you lease one for 24 months in mid July 2009, the first day it went on sale, the car will be returned to Ford by August 2011. But to the bank valuing the lease, it doesn't matter that Ford will have this car back during model/calendar year 2011. To them, it is 2 model years old and thus, is worth exactly what they think a 2010 Taurus will be worth in 2012... not August 2011 per se. To flip the case... think of a 2 years old use car NOW... say 2007 Fusion... does the value of that car change very much today whether it was sold in October 2006 or May 2007? Probably not right? The residual value of cars is determined mainly by model year. If your car is 2 model years old, it is worth precisely what that model year is worth plus or minus the other variations (mileage, equipment, option, condition, color etc). So as you can see, there is no incentive for Ford to take that 2010 Taurus in my example back early. So they add a couple of month to the lease term, which doesn't change residual very much (still a 2 model years old car in 2012, doesn't matter that it is actually 27 months old). But the extra months will allow them to spread the depreciation charge over 27 monthly as opposed to 24 months, which lowers your monthly lease payment. It's a WIN-WIN-WIN for Ford, the bank, and you. As the selling season gets later in the year, these leases are shortened into standard 24 or 36 months as the bank (i.e. Ford Credit) absorbs some of the minor difference in residual value. By the middle of the calender year, there is no problem with trying to sell a 2 years old used car as a 2 years old used car and more conventional 24 and 36 month leases works to everyone's advantage again.

That's why we'll get a new Explorer next year. The 2.0 turbo base engine in the Edge is very interesting idea. I had not expected it. Looks like it will be a very interesting comparison with the up coming Audi Q5 2.0T. I guess that also suggests the next Escape will probably go to an all 4 cylinder engine line up.

But we just spent the whole thread debunking this point! :D If your theory is correct, a large % of people buying B-cars only care about price, then "typically equipped" Fiesta will be the "S" sedan, which at around $14k costs about the same as the Hyundai Accent GLS sedan, Versa S sedan and Yaris sedan. And Fiesta will have more features than all these cars, as standard equipment. In another word, Fiesta is very competitive with what those buyers are looking for. The super stripper base Versa and Accent Blue are largely irrelevant in this discussion because those models are loss leaders... They have no power accessories, no AC, no radio; and they are virutally impossible to find because Nissan and Hyundai actually do not want to sell too many of them. If on the other hand, the SES/SEL ~$18k Fiesta is the "typically" equipped model, then your theory is wrong. If the typical customer wants the SES with leather and SYNC, then the competitive set for Fiesta is not Accent/Versa/Yaris. It is MINI and... perhaps Smart. And Fiesta is a screaming bargain compare to the MINI. 2010 Hyundai Accent Coupe Blue FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 31 mpg $9,970 Loss leader "penalty box" GS FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $11,995 Accent coupe only 2 door so not directly comparable to Fiesta GS FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 30 mpg $12,995 SE FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $16,195 ~Fiesta SE SE FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 30 mpg $16,995 2010 Hyundai Accent Sedan GLS FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $13,645 ~Fiesta S GLS FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 30 mpg $14,645 2010 Nissan Versa 1.6 Base FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 29 mpg $9,990penalty box 1.6 FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 29 mpg $10,990 1.6 FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 28 mpg $11,990 1.8 S FWD 1.8L I4 Manual 28 mpg $13,100 ~Fiesta S 1.8 S FWD 1.8L I4 Manual 28 mpg $13,150 1.8 S FWD 1.8L I4 Auto 27 mpg $14,100 1.8 S FWD 1.8L I4 Auto 27 mpg $14,150 1.8 SL FWD 1.8L I4 Auto 27 mpg $16,100 ~Fiesta SE 1.8 SL FWD 1.8L I4 CVT 30 mpg $16,530 2009 Kia Rio Sedan Base FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $11,495 LX FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $13,225 ~Fiesta S SX FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $14,025 LX FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 30 mpg $14,075 SX FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 30 mpg $14,875 2009 Kia Rio Wagon (5 Dr Hatchback) Rio5 LX FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $13,325 Rio5 LX FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 30 mpg $14,175 Rio5 SX FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 30 mpg $14,280 Rio5 SX FWD 1.6L I4 Auto 30 mpg $15,125 2010 Kia Soul Wagon Base FWD 1.6L I4 Manual 28 mpg $13,300 + FWD 2.0L I4 Manual 26 mpg $14,950 + FWD 2.0L I4 Auto 26 mpg $15,900 ! FWD 2.0L I4 Manual 26 mpg $16,950 ~Fiesta SE Sport FWD 2.0L I4 Manual 26 mpg $16,950 ! FWD 2.0L I4 Auto 26 mpg $17,900 ~Fiesta SES Sport FWD 2.0L I4 Auto 26 mpg $17,900 2010 Toyota Yaris Coupe (3 Dr Hatchback) Base FWD 1.5L I4 Manual 32 mpg $12,605 2 door hatch - no comparable model Base FWD 1.5L I4 Auto 31 mpg $13,405 2010 Toyota Yaris Sedan (5 Dr Hatchback) Base FWD 1.5L I4 Manual 32 mpg $12,905 Base FWD 1.5L I4 Auto 31 mpg $13,705 2010 Toyota Yaris Sedan Base FWD 1.5L I4 Manual 32 mpg $13,365 ~Fiesta S Base FWD 1.5L I4 Auto 31 mpg $14,165 2010 Scion xD Sedan Base FWD 1.8L I4 Manual 29 mpg $14,900 ~Fiesta SE Base FWD 1.8L I4 Auto 29 mpg $15,700 2010 Honda Fit Sedan (5 Dr Hatchback) Base FWD 1.5L I4 Manual 29 mpg $14,900 ~Fiesta S Base FWD 1.5L I4 Auto 31 mpg $15,700 Sport FWD 1.5L I4 Manual 29 mpg $16,410 ~Fiesta SE Sport FWD 1.5L I4 Auto 30 mpg $17,260 Sport w/Navigation FWD 1.5L I4 Auto 30 mpg $19,110 ~Fiesta SES 2010 MINI Cooper Coupe Base FWD 1.6L I4 Manual ~Fiesta SES Auto 32 mpg $18,800 S FWD 1.6L I4 T Manual Auto 29 mpg $22,300 John Cooper Works FWD 1.6L I4 T Manual 28 mpg $28,800 ~Fiesta ST :P In every case, Fiesta is price competitive with more standard features and better MPG. The only thing missing in the Fiesta line up is the "penalty box" super stripper model, and frankly Ford has no business chasing those bottom feeding money losing customers anyway.

Typically equipped how? Someone who wants to buy the $14k Versa or $13k Accent is not going to want a $18k Fiesta with 6 speed powershift, leather seats and SYNC. So either this is not really Fiesta's competitor set or more likely, $18k is not a "typically equipped" Fiesta, if you think this is the likely competition. We can't argue it both ways... I could totally skew the data points by adding a few more cars Scion xD Base price $14,900 Typically equipped $15,700 (with automatic) MINI Coupe Base price $18,800 Typically equipped $22,000 (per Edmunds, auto+convenience pack) Volvo C30 Base parice $24,100 Typically equipped $33,800 (per Edmunds, auto+preferred pack+sunroof+multi-media pack+auto climate control) $18k doesn't seem too bad now huh? :D

I think you have to wait until Detroit next month.

I thought there is also going to be a BEV version (i.e. pure electric only)? Ford is going to start selling BEV Transit Connect soon. Didn't Ford also said BEV Focus was part of the new model program when they announced BEV Transit Connect? So potentially, we will have a a BEV Focus, a hybrid Focus, and a plug in hybrid Focus, all using the same battery pack. This may even allow Ford to price the "green" Focus in ascending price depending on how much range you need.