jpd80 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 (edited) 4 hours ago, Rick73 said: Arguing against efficiency is arguing in favor of inefficiency, which makes no sense to me at all; but if you guys want to, by all means have fun with it. It makes sense if you understand the compromises required in a short vehicle to balance against maximum efficiency versus other features that most buyers want. 4 hours ago, Rick73 said: By the way, you don’t need to “explain” it to me. I understand exactly what you stated, but agreeing is a different matter. 😆 It’s not about making you agree, my point of view is based on observations of what the industry currently does and why they do it.If you have an issue with that fine but every mass produced vehicle on the road is a compromise and there are very good reasons why that’s done. The fact that you can’t come to grips with that says more about you than the rest of us. Edited March 10 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Someone’s real world experience with a Mach E on a roadtrip from MD to FL 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/10/2024 at 2:29 PM, jpd80 said: It makes sense if you understand the compromises required in a short vehicle to balance against maximum efficiency versus other features that most buyers want. I do understand, and also know that Mercedes already proved such a successful car can be built in ICE variant, so should be even easier as a BEV. Whether similar vehicles should be built or not in the future is a judgment call (matter of opinion), but the physical feasibility should not be questioned since it has already been accomplished. For what it’s worth, that was 6 years ago and technology has improved, making me more optimistic. On 3/10/2024 at 2:29 PM, jpd80 said: It’s not about making you agree, my point of view is based on observations of what the industry currently does and why they do it.If you have an issue with that fine but every mass produced vehicle on the road is a compromise and there are very good reasons why that’s done. The fact that you can’t come to grips with that says more about you than the rest of us. I agree that I think differently than most, but given how many mistakes the industry has made recently with electrification, and how many billions upon billions they wasted reading consumers wrong, bragging that you all think the same doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. I don’t mean this to be critical in any way because it’s not my nature, but rather that you keep an open mind that maybe, just maybe, the industry should look at electrification from a different perspective. For your information, I will gladly discuss pretty much any subject professionally, but not if made personal. It’s pointless to try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 9 minutes ago, Rick73 said: I don’t mean this to be critical in any way because it’s not my nature, but rather that you keep an open mind that maybe, just maybe, the industry should look at electrification from a different perspective. The thing is they can do that all they want, but if customers don't want to pay for it, they'll go out of business. EVs already are hitting head winds with customers and making them efficient above all else is going to be a disaster. Sometimes the 1/2 or 3/4 measure is better then nothing at all, which many people don't get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: The thing is they can do that all they want, but if customers don't want to pay for it, they'll go out of business. EVs already are hitting head winds with customers and making them efficient above all else is going to be a disaster. Sometimes the 1/2 or 3/4 measure is better then nothing at all, which many people don't get. Fair point, though I have never said efficiency should be placed above all else. I have stated efficiency helps drive costs down, and lower costs are better than higher costs in competitive markets. What else is read into my words is out of my control. Shifting gears — regarding “affordability” which is topic of this thread, I just read a few interesting articles which mentioned another subject which affects vehicle cost, and fortunately it has nothing to do with energy efficiency. After a recent tour of Tesla’s Texas factory where new affordable next-gen vehicle is under development, a group of Evercore analysts reported a “big debate” will be whether driver assistance hardware should be standard given its estimated added cost of $2,000~$3,000. From Fortune article: “The next-gen model’s bill of materials will decline from $28,000 to $20,000, and likely have around 250 miles of range and no glass roof, McNally wrote. A “big debate” will be whether Tesla’s driver-assistance hardware will be standard, he said, citing his team’s belief that the hardware could cost $2,000 to $3,000.” Assuming that hardware estimate is close to correct, it begs the question of how many buyers of “affordable” vehicles (presumably in sub-$30k price range) will upgrade to enhanced autopilot or full self driving? And if very few do, does it make sense to burden a vehicle with added hardware costs that will mostly go unused? By contrast, this thread’s OP linked Motor1 article mentioned: “To this end, Farley noted the new platform will be "a large install base for software and services." Specific services were not mentioned, but currently, Ford offers its hands-free driving system, BlueCruise, for $75 a month.” Just shows entire subject matter is not black and white, and even “experts” disagree on pretty much anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 42 minutes ago, Rick73 said: but rather that you keep an open mind that maybe, just maybe, the industry should look at electrification from a different perspective. This is no different than we’ve seen with smaller more fuel efficient ICE vehicles vs larger vehicles vs trucks vs sports cars vs luxury vehicles over the last 50 years. Vast majority of buyers have prioritized size, performance, utility, styling and features over fuel economy/range and there is zero reason to think that might change with EV vehicles. Low price will be a bigger factor but again that’s a small fraction of the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 minutes ago, akirby said: Vast majority of buyers have prioritized size, performance, utility, styling and features over fuel economy/range and there is zero reason to think that might change with EV vehicles. That is probably the core difference of why I disagree with most of you. I honestly believe that battery-electric versus ICE or hybrid changes the cost structure so much so (at least for now) that what works best for ICE making them more desirable to buyers for their given cost is not the same as what works best for BEVs. It’s not that I don’t like large vehicles, or think most buyers want small ones, that’s not the case at all. I just know that ICE leads to large vehicles offering value in a way that large BEV cannot for now. Hence why the best-selling ICE are very different than best-selling BEVs. ICE can get away with certain design attributes that BEV simply can’t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 11 minutes ago, Rick73 said: That is probably the core difference of why I disagree with most of you. I honestly believe that battery-electric versus ICE or hybrid changes the cost structure so much so (at least for now) that what works best for ICE making them more desirable to buyers for their given cost is not the same as what works best for BEVs. It’s not that I don’t like large vehicles, or think most buyers want small ones, that’s not the case at all. I just know that ICE leads to large vehicles offering value in a way that large BEV cannot for now. Hence why the best-selling ICE are very different than best-selling BEVs. ICE can get away with certain design attributes that BEV simply can’t. The biggest issue with EVs is charging-it doesn't really matter "that much" if you can recharge from a flat battery to 80% or so in 20 minutes or less with the same ease as going to gas station (well availability) as you do with an ICE. There has be a meeting in the middle between efficiency and performance, just like there is with any other car-if range is that big of a deal, maybe buy that compromised car that no one will build because people buy a swiss army knife that can do more then just one thing and live with the 250 mile or so range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, Rick73 said: That is probably the core difference of why I disagree with most of you. I honestly believe that battery-electric versus ICE or hybrid changes the cost structure so much so (at least for now) that what works best for ICE making them more desirable to buyers for their given cost is not the same as what works best for BEVs. It’s not that I don’t like large vehicles, or think most buyers want small ones, that’s not the case at all. I just know that ICE leads to large vehicles offering value in a way that large BEV cannot for now. Hence why the best-selling ICE are very different than best-selling BEVs. ICE can get away with certain design attributes that BEV simply can’t. The best selling EVs are made by Tesla and that fan base is not your typical mass market vehicle buyer. They’re willing to make all sorts of compromises that the average buyer won’t make. And what I’m talking about is sacrificing a little aerodynamics for more appealing styling, or going from a subcompact to a compact size not necessarily $100k hummers. I’m saying more people will pay $35K for a slightly larger vehicle with more appealing styling before they’ll pay $25K for a tiny blob with equal range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 7 hours ago, akirby said: And what I’m talking about is sacrificing a little aerodynamics for more appealing styling, or going from a subcompact to a compact size not necessarily $100k hummers. I’m saying more people will pay $35K for a slightly larger vehicle with more appealing styling before they’ll pay $25K for a tiny blob with equal range. Agreed. I think what Ford, and their competitors are gonna find, is that the sweet spot for EVs is in that 30-50k price range. Affordable enough so that they're not completely unobtainable, expensive enough to be profitable, and high quality. What Ford does better than literally every other car brand in the world is making affordable aspirational products. No-one even gets close to them there. Making products that people would describe as dream cars, but ones where they can say "I can actually afford to buy one of those". When Ford themes it's products around those principles, they're unbeatable. That's what their EVs should be, something that gives me an experience no other brand offers, at the price where I don't have to think twice. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 (edited) 16 hours ago, Rick73 said: I agree that I think differently than most, but given how many mistakes the industry has made recently with electrification, and how many billions upon billions they wasted reading consumers wrong, bragging that you all think the same doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. I don’t mean this to be critical in any way because it’s not my nature, but rather that you keep an open mind that maybe, just maybe, the industry should look at electrification from a different perspective. For your information, I will gladly discuss pretty much any subject professionally, but not if made personal. It’s pointless to try. Wow… By your own admission, your wants needs, desires are different to many other people and I’d put it to you that it’s those very thing that are exactly why there’s no car that fits the desired efficiency envelope that you crave so much. Will this change in the future? Possibly so but knowing the inherent greed of the automotive industry to upsell and convince buyers into things they really don’t need…I suspect the feature you want to see are actually way down the list on what will be offered to buyers.. Im trying to go easy here because it’s clear to me that you project passion in your thoughts and yeah, we all do that from time to time, it’s a great way to blow off some steam and get positive feedback so I’ve been dismissive of your suggestions and in hindsight I’d like to see a few super efficient vehicles if only to disrupt the rest of the industry….sometimes OEMs need a good kick in the ass LOL. Edited March 14 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Ford Authority reports Farley concerned about super-low-price Chinese BYD Seagull electric vehicle. It is very close in size to discontinued Chevy Spark, which was offered as an EV for a few years. The Spark EV only had 19 kWh battery with 82 miles of range, so not much chance of being successful. The BYD Seagull has 30 and 39 kWh battery options, with much greater range than Spark. I personally think Seagull is way too small for US, but that BYD can build a car at that low a cost should be concerning. I doubt Farley sees Seagull as a potential direct competitor to new platform, but it clearly shows where competition could be headed. https://fordauthority.com/2024/03/heres-an-overview-of-the-ev-ford-ceo-says-is-threat-video/ Ford Authority also reported today Puma EV testing once again, this time in winter conditions. https://fordauthority.com/2024/03/ford-puma-ev-spotted-testing-ahead-of-official-debut/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Rick73 said: Ford Authority reports Farley concerned about super-low-price Chinese BYD Seagull electric vehicle. It is very close in size to discontinued Chevy Spark, which was offered as an EV for a few years. The Spark EV only had 19 kWh battery with 82 miles of range, so not much chance of being successful. The BYD Seagull has 30 and 39 kWh battery options, with much greater range than Spark. I personally think Seagull is way too small for US, but that BYD can build a car at that low a cost should be concerning. I doubt Farley sees Seagull as a potential direct competitor to new platform, but it clearly shows where competition could be headed. https://fordauthority.com/2024/03/heres-an-overview-of-the-ev-ford-ceo-says-is-threat-video/ Ford Authority also reported today Puma EV testing once again, this time in winter conditions. https://fordauthority.com/2024/03/ford-puma-ev-spotted-testing-ahead-of-official-debut/ I wonder if the puma EV is the affordable EV utility ExplorerDude was describing. I highly doubt it, but we know a lot of people want the puma here. It would certainly be more appealing than the ecosport. As for the BYD Seagull and Dolphin, those low prices basically only apply to the Chinese market. I'm fairly certain those EVs are also being sold throughout several European nations, and they're in the mid 20s or low 30s after it's all said and done, for a car designed originally to be sold in the low five figures. There's no appeal to the BYD dolphin once I'm paying 30 grand for it. Edited March 16 by DeluxeStang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 30 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said: I wonder if the puma EV is the affordable EV utility ExplorerDude was describing. I highly doubt it, but we know a lot of people want the puma here. It would certainly be more appealing than the ecosport. Given the premium pricing of the ICE Puma models, I’d say no it’s not. 30 minutes ago, DeluxeStang said: As for the BYD Seagull and Dolphin, those low prices basically only apply to the Chinese market. I'm fairly certain those EVs are also being sold throughout several European nations, and they're in the mid 20s or low 30s after it's all said and done, for a car designed originally to be sold in the low five figures. There's no appeal to the BYD dolphin once I'm paying 30 grand for it. Europe and UK are railing at BYD literally dumping large volume of cars in those markets, watch for tariffs limiting the number to be sold as well as taxes to stop inundating those markets. The only way around that is to build in Europe. Puma BEV and companion BEV Tourneo Courier a nice looking vehicle but allow us to think of the possibilities of smaller electrics and batteries, basically returning to a better designed plan that the afterthought E Focus, this looks ot be well executed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 11 hours ago, DeluxeStang said: As for the BYD Seagull and Dolphin, those low prices basically only apply to the Chinese market. I'm fairly certain those EVs are also being sold throughout several European nations, and they're in the mid 20s or low 30s after it's all said and done, for a car designed originally to be sold in the low five figures. Apparently Seagull (Dolphin Mini) is being sold in Mexico and Brazil, and perhaps Uruguay. The reported price in Brazil is $20,100 for 30 kWh and $23,200 for 39 kWh battery. IMO the concern should not be for what it is, but what it represents — basic low-cost EV transportation. If BYD builds a factory in Mexico to circumvent tariffs/taxes, they could flood US market with cheap BEVs. BYD also has much nicer models on Mexican website that should be more appealing to US buyers than the Seagull. Another important difference is that Seagull doesn’t seem to add cost for self driving or autonomous hardware as far as I can tell. It has electric powertrain but otherwise is like normal entry-level ICE vehicles. I have no idea how US buyers would weigh cost savings versus self-driving capabilities at that price point. For companies like Ford and Tesla that charge extra for self driving assistance, that could affect profitability. https://electrek.co/2024/02/13/byd-launches-cheapest-ev-south-america-20k/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 5 hours ago, Rick73 said: Apparently Seagull (Dolphin Mini) is being sold in Mexico and Brazil, and perhaps Uruguay. The reported price in Brazil is $20,100 for 30 kWh and $23,200 for 39 kWh battery. IMO the concern should not be for what it is, but what it represents — basic low-cost EV transportation. If BYD builds a factory in Mexico to circumvent tariffs/taxes, they could flood US market with cheap BEVs. BYD also has much nicer models on Mexican website that should be more appealing to US buyers than the Seagull. Another important difference is that Seagull doesn’t seem to add cost for self driving or autonomous hardware as far as I can tell. It has electric powertrain but otherwise is like normal entry-level ICE vehicles. I have no idea how US buyers would weigh cost savings versus self-driving capabilities at that price point. For companies like Ford and Tesla that charge extra for self driving assistance, that could affect profitability. https://electrek.co/2024/02/13/byd-launches-cheapest-ev-south-america-20k/ They might flood the market with cheap EVs, cheap here means low 20s for an EV. But who's gonna look at that little shitbox for 23 grand, and an actually decent vehicle like a maverick for 26, and say "I'll take the shitbox please". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 hours ago, DeluxeStang said: They might flood the market with cheap EVs, cheap here means low 20s for an EV. But who's gonna look at that little shitbox for 23 grand, and an actually decent vehicle like a maverick for 26, and say "I'll take the shitbox please". Certainly, agree with you on that, but for now that will almost always be the case if comparing ICE versus BEV. Even when vehicles are similar, like F-150 versus Lightning, ICE has significant initial cost advantage; at least in North America. My take from Farley’s comment is that in the future, BYD will be tough to compete against on BEV price. Presently it’s not much of a factor. For what it’s worth, in China the 30 kWh Seagull is reported to sell for just under $10K. I expect price parity will first be achieved in smallest of vehicles. Comparing “shitbox” Seagull to ICE Maverick seems like Apples to Oranges in that a BEV Maverick would likely cost around $40k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 5 minutes ago, Rick73 said: Certainly, agree with you on that, but for now that will almost always be the case if comparing ICE versus BEV. Even when vehicles are similar, like F-150 versus Lightning, ICE has significant initial cost advantage; at least in North America. My take from Farley’s comment is that in the future, BYD will be tough to compete against on BEV price. Presently it’s not much of a factor. For what it’s worth, in China the 30 kWh Seagull is reported to sell for just under $10K. I expect price parity will first be achieved in smallest of vehicles. Comparing “shitbox” Seagull to ICE Maverick seems like Apples to Oranges in that a BEV Maverick would likely cost around $40k. Ford is targeting a price of 25-30k for their compact affordable CE1 evs according to people involved in their development. Ford hasn't come out and said what those EVs are, but we know from insiders one of them is an EV maverick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeluxeStang Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 (edited) https://fordauthority.com/2024/03/low-cost-ford-ev-arrives-in-late-2026-with-25k-msrp-report/ Small EV truck and crossover arriving in 2026 with a starting price of 25 grand. Edited March 18 by DeluxeStang 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.3943b43a09de17b750ed378b4704279c.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.