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Gurgeh

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  1. Well, if production of the Rivian SUVs start in March 2021, production of the Lincoln vehicles could begin anytime after that -- assuming it is as far along as claimed. So, could be a model year 2022 coming out as early as spring or summer of 2021, theoretically.
  2. We're getting a little more information on the upcoming Rivian-derived Ford product, most likely one of the Lincoln electric SUVs that has been mentioned. Looks like it will be a big one, likely a 3-row. Rivian says they will begin production of their own pickup in December this year and their SUV three months later. They have not said anything specific about the Lincoln product, including when its production will begin (though looks like it could be as early as next year), noting that such information is for Ford to announce, but this got my attention: ------------------- "Ford is designing its own so-called 'top hat'—an EV-specific term for the vehicle bodies that use the skateboard architecture—for its high-end electric SUV, but since it will ride on the common architecture, features such as the company's unique infotainment system must be designed to run on Rivian's electrical systems. Scaringe would not say when Ford production begins, but design and engineering are locked in and ready to roll. 'It's a very different product from our own SUV, but it's still in the SUV space,' Scaringe says. While Rivian is going after the adventure market, Ford will pursue luxury buyers, which leads us to deduce it will be sold as a Lincoln. Scaringe would not confirm this supposition, as it's Ford's announcement to make, he said. He did say the Ford SUV is 'an impressive product, to say the least.' " https://www.motortrend.com/news/rivian-readies-production-electric-trucks-suvs-ford-lincoln-amazon/
  3. Gurgeh

    Dont park your c8 in Detroit..

    There is more crime in Chicago, but the crime rate is much higher in Detroit because it has a smaller population. Currently, Detroit has the second highest violent crime rate (2,057 per 100,000) of U.S. cities, just behind St. Louis and just ahead of Baltimore. Chicago clocks in at #21 at 1,099 per 100,000.
  4. Tesla's S is a luxury car. Maybe the X. But not the 3 (though it is priced like one). "If you purchase a standard Tesla Model 3, the seats must be manually adjusted, as will the steering column. The side mirrors aren’t powered or heated, and there’s no auto dimming. There are no LED fog lamps, and if you want a covered storage area in the center console, you must pay extra. Unless you spend $5,000 for the Premium Upgrade, you’re essentially getting the interior of a base model Toyota Camry. (To be fair, the Camry comes standard with a covered center console.)" https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/31/16069960/tesla-model-3-not-luxury-car-options-model-s
  5. I live in the Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC, and like you see a fair number of Navigators. But I also see MKZs, a few Continentals, a goodly number of current generation (but pre-Nautilus) MKXs, a smattering of older MKXs and current Nautiluses, and a few MKCs. I haven't noticed any Aviators in the wild yet, though that is also my dealer's current top seller, nor any Corsairs (my dealer's #2 seller). Oh, and quite a few venerable Towncars as well, usually well-maintained. I see a more Acuras, Lexuses, MBs, BMWs, and Volvos than Lincolns or Cadillacs (and more Caddies than Lincolns), but I do see them out and about. The Washington metro area, with 6 of the top 10 wealthiest counties in the U.S. (a startling stat worthy of a different discussion), has an affinity for foreign brands. Just give it time. Corsairs have only been on sale a couple months, Aviators a few months longer (but with supplies restricted initially do the the rocky launch). The Nautilus has been selling for a little over a year, but is still much outnumbered by MKXs on the road.
  6. Gurgeh

    Tesla unintended acceleration

    Note that any naming of names in #5, in the absence of the suggested parenthetical, is itself a smear.
  7. Probowler, I don't see a lux bronc as fitting in with Lincoln these days. They are now about style, a very American (and very luxurious) interior, and a "quiet flight" (though powerful) driving experience. Personally, I'd love to see the return of a hot rod Lincoln or a lux bronc style serious off-road capable SUV (think Range Rover Sport), but I don't expect them.
  8. My dealer is about 12 miles away, which isn't bad. There are two Ford/Lincoln dealers closer, but not BL. The other two BL dealers in the Washington DC area are in Virginia (I live in the Maryland 'burbs). If I had to go over to Virginia to buy my Black Label Nautilus I still would probably have done it, as I was buying it for the higher quality interior and more comfortable seats (due to the much softer leather used in BLs), not so much the perks. It can still be serviced at any Lincoln dealership. But the nice thing about my dealer, East West Lincoln, is that they are Lincoln-only (the only one in the metro area) and have a excellent reputation. The purchase was a great experience and I'm happy so far with the servicing.
  9. Odd, coming from Nissan's Infinity brand your wife wouldn't want to even look at Ford's Lincoln brand. I follow the Lincoln boards pretty closely (I have a Nautilus) and while the Aviator also had a very rocky start I haven't seen anything near to the kind of continuing problems that I read about with the Explorer. The interiors of the new Lincolns are absolutely sumptuous and they come standard with the engine your wife wanted to upgrade to. Going for the ST on the Explorer would have put her up into Aviator pricing levels in any case.
  10. Gurgeh

    Rivian gets 1.3 Billion Investment

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau, from 2010 to 2019 Illinois had the second highest negative net domestic migration of any U.S. state (second only to Alaska, which is a small state with special circumstances). Illinois' net negative migration to other states was 865,873 or a loss of 6.75% of its population. The only other two states losing nearly as high a percentage of their population from people fleeing to other states were New Jersey and New York. California was an interesting case. They lost even more in absolute numbers (though from a higher population base) but more than made up from the loss by gaining over a million new inhabitants through immigration, many of them (possibly even most of them) legal.
  11. Gurgeh

    Tesla

    Yes, I noticed that as well. Must have been written some months ago but I've been following the article's installments as they become available for free reading.
  12. Gurgeh

    Tesla

    Here is the first half of a two-part conclusion to an excellent multi-article analysis of Tesla. It is the most balanced thing I've read about the company. I categorize it as somewhat positive overall (the author refers to himself as an enthusiastic, but not cultish, Model 3 owner), but starkly aware of the Tesla's shortcomings and high risks. Some exerpts: "Unlike internal-combustion-engine (ICE) car producers, Tesla is vertically integrated; thus it is not just a designer, assembler, and marketer of cars, it also manufactures most of the parts (including the battery and self-driving CPU) that go into its cars, and it also owns the retail stores that sell Tesla vehicles to consumers (unlike ICE carmakers, it doesn’t wholesale cars to dealerships). This path, though potentially more rewarding and maybe even necessary, is both difficult and risky. This business model creates very high fixed costs and thus requires a higher escape velocity (number of cars produced) to reach profitability. To make things more difficult, Tesla is still young for a car company, and excellence in car production comes from iteration. Tesla’s production techniques are still improving." ... "You don’t need to have a great imagination to see a future in which Tesla needs to raise a few billion dollars of capital. By that point its cash will be gone, and debt investors alarmed by nearly $15 billion of debt and unending losses will refuse to lend. Equity investors, exhausted by promises made but not kept, will punish the company with a valuation that will make the capital raised incredibly dilutive, thus basically impairing anyone who bought shares of Tesla at current prices. There is also a scenario where the company is down on its luck with financial markets, the stock price has fallen to, let’s say, $50; Tesla’s market capitalization is down to around $10 billion (to pick a nice round number); and an ICE car company or a Silicon Valley neighbor buys it. From today’s price that would result in a 75% permanent loss of capital. And then there is the scenario where Tesla achieves escape velocity, turns profitable, and starts minting money. At this point Tesla’s success will again depend not only on its own prowess but on the strength of its competitors. As I discuss in great detail in my previous Tesla articles, it is not a foregone conclusion that every ICE automaker will successfully transition to become a profitable EV maker." ... "Tesla’s stock is now around $200 (sticking with round numbers again), and I can see a scenario where it crashes to $50 over the next few years or skyrockets to $1,000 over the next decade. Which is a 75% downside and a 500% upside." ... "The reason I took you on this theoretical journey is to show you that at today’s price Tesla is worse than a casino gamble, because aside from highly suspect estimate of upside and downside, we have a hard time assessing our chances. Though I suspect some of my readers will have strong opinions on the probabilities involved, I don’t. If Tesla’s stock price declines to $50, then as long as you’re comfortable with my (highly hypothetical) best and especially worst-case scenarios, the best case at this point offers a 20x upside (from $50 to $1,000) and there is zero downside at the $50 price. At that price you really don’t have to have a brilliant insight into what lies ahead for Tesla." https://contrarianedge.com/why-we-dont-own-tesla-stock-and-no-were-not-bears/
  13. Interesting but not surprising that the MKC/Corsair and Aviator are now Lincoln's top two sellers, moving past the traditional leader, the MKX/Nautilus, which is now Lincoln's only remaining CUV/SUV with the previous generation's styling cues.
  14. I was referring to the original post about quarterly sales.
  15. Also, impressive that Lincoln sales cut Ford losses almost in half, from -2.2% for Ford alone to -1.3% for FMC overall.
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