Gurgeh

Look on the bright side. With the last couple of years of nearly 10% inflation and probably a couple more years of current elevated levels of around 5%, $80k+ in 2025 will be the equivalent of 2021's $65k+. Yeah, the bright side... ?

Maybe those words in their original forms have meaning in business. But my background is in energy/environmental policy in government and I assure you that in those worlds the words are particularly vacuous. In their verb sense they have meaning. To sustain something it must be viable and be able to be cost effective over time. One transforms older systems and approaches into things that works into the future. In enviro-speak, turned into adverbs like transformational or, even worse, into adverbs that are then turned further into nouns like sustainability they become increasingly leached of concrete meaning and become whatever policy or approach the speaker prefers but doesn't want to actually explain, define or justify (sometimes because it is pretty much impossible to do so).

Remember a few years ago when everything was "sustainable" or "transformational" (or both)?

In Maryland where I live there's a state law that says any deposits must be fully refundable for any reason (or no reason) up until the point that you physically go in and do the purchase and take possession of the vehicle. Before I decided to buy out the lease on my current 2019 Nautilus I did a factory order for a Mercedes GLE-450 and put down a $2,000 deposit. When I got the call from the dealership that my vehicle was built and would be arriving in a few days -- but, well, the factory made a few changes. Few? So many of the options that made me want the crossover in the first place were factory deleted that I said thanks, but no thanks. That same day they refunded the full deposit amount to my credit card. Then I went in and bought out my Lincoln lease, and I'm glad I did because to my surprise the all new 2024 Nautilus is something I think I'll like better and it is indeed going to be on sale in North America. I've already put in a factory order for the new Nautilus for a much smaller deposit. But if I change my mind I'll get that back. I gather that the vehicle deposit laws in your state are different, but there is no reason for the dealership to keep it. Not if they actually care about keeping customers. They won't lose any money as they'll be able to sell the vehicle you ordered when it arrives at full price.

Good article from Forbes on this issue. There's a paywall, but you get 4 free articles a month. The key conclusions are that while some of the cost differentials on repairs should come down, there are reasons that all-electrics will likely continue to be more expensive to repair. See below for key points. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2022/07/25/repairing-an-electric-vehicle-could-cost-more-than-gasoline-cars-a-new-kind-of-sticker-shock/?sh=d0d38945eee5 Repair facilities are making substantial investments in new equipment and training, to work on EVs — costs they will be looking to pass on to consumers. The novelty also means EV repairs can take longer, until technicians get accustomed to the new routines. While ICE vehicles also have more Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, like forward collision-avoidance, EVs are really loaded with ADAS features. ADAS sensors tend to be located in areas that are likely to be damaged in a collision, like the bumpers or exterior mirrors. They are expensive to replace. Battery packs make EVs heavier than similar-sized ICE vehicles. That means they collide with greater momentum. It also means EVs make greater use of expensive, lightweight, high-strength materials to try and offset the battery weight. Those materials are expensive to replace, too. Spray-painting after a repair may take longer for an EV, since often, the battery pack must be removed before painting, and reinstalled after. Time is money.

It wasn't a big deposit. Just a few hundred dollars. Most dealers do this in part to ensure that the person doing the order is serious, but it is totally refundable if you change your mind (according to state law). We even agreed on a price below MSRP, though not a lot below below MSRP. I do still have an issue, however, that might ultimately lead me to backing out of the deal. I really, really don't want the 22" wheels. They said Lincoln doesn't permit them to deliver a vehicle that is different in any way than the configuration on the sticker. But that isn't what I'm actually trying to do. I'm asking them to find another customer getting delivery about the same time with the smaller tires that would be interested in a free "upgrade." And then after delivery, switch, in an aftermarket agreement between two owners. I talked to the owner about this (he is the person who actually did the special order for me) and after talking to the folks in parts he said the he wasn't certain that it would be physically possible, that the bolt pattern that comes with the Reserve/BL might be different than what comes with base Premier (the former coming only with 21" or 22", the later only with 19" or 20" wheels). But this doesn't really make sense to me. For instance, I know people in the snow belt often get smaller wheels/higher profile snow tires that they put on their vehicles in the winter months. So it must be possible. Really annoyed by automakers trying to force people like me into low profile tires. Need to do a little more research on this. EDIT: One more thing. The owner continued to be very frustrated with supply. It is almost impossible for them to keep vehicles on the lot for folks who come by and just want to get into a car. He knows that FMC is trying to push their customers all -- or as nearly all as possible -- into special ordering, but while that works well for people like me who can wait it's not what everyone wants to do with shopping for a new car. He put in a special order for a neighbor of his last October for a Corsair (she currently has an Audi), but it is still not built. ...though Lincoln promises it will be, Real Soon Now.

Not crazy about the new 2024 Nautilus being built (at least for now) in China and imported to North America (even though I'm going in tomorrow to put down a deposit on one), but I'll take that over buying one built in the Chicago plant. It's risky enough buying a first year model -- I can do without the risk of the Chicago facility botching up the build, as they so often do.

Think you mean '23 Nautilus. The 2024's don't start shipping for another 8 months or so.

The new 2024 Nautilus actually has 3 screens. Two are the information screens that stretch across the entire dash. They are not meant to be touched. While driving I doubt you could even reach them. The third is a big input (and info) screen in the usual location that you use to control features of the car and to set up what is displayed on the info screens. The left half of the left top screen is for the usual driver information: speed, fuel, tach and such. It is so high and close to the windshield that no head-up display is needed. The right half of the left top screen you'll probably want to use for navigation. The left part of the right screen (I think it is broken into three sections for display purposes) you'll most likely want to set up for displaying audio. The other two portions, well as I understand it there are still a number of options for display. Clock, weather, etc. Honestly, it really is a nice set-up that answers well the question of recent years: how do I position the screen so that it is high enough to safely view while driving, while still being something that a driver can easily and safely reach? I expect we'll start to see in other Lincolns.

Because their products aren't what you are looking for, so it makes sense for you to look elsewhere. Some folks really want a car, but Lincoln doesn't make those anymore (and Ford barely does). Some folks want driving excitement in their high center-of-gravity crossovers, so best for them to go to BMW who really does try to tweak the laws of physics to deliver that, and does a reasonable job at it -- Lincoln products are oriented around driving comfort. Some folks want their their neighbors to be envious of their purchase, so they should go for Mercedes or Range Rover (in the latter case paying in part for the vehicle's serious off-road capabilities, as if more than .01% of Range Rover owners ever take their $100,000+ vehicles into the mud). And some folks just don't like the look of Lincoln's current external or internal designs -- there's nothing more subjective in a vehicle than what folks thinks looks good -- so they should go with a vehicle that looks more like what they want that vehicle to look like, whatever that is. Maybe a Genesis (I actually love the look of the GV80's front end, but many hate it) or Range Rover (love the clean exterior design which some find bland and their interiors are just as good as MB or Lincoln, in my view). Many don't want so many interior screens or want more physical buttons (I can agree on the latter, but good luck on finding that these days in any of the new models coming out). Some want BEVs, and sadly Lincoln doesn't have those yet -- really too bad about the Rivian-derived product -- but they are working on that. Some just want more variety, and I agree, 4 vehicles isn't much to choose from. ...and to be delicate, I assume you meant six figures income, not six figures net worth. If you are retired and all you have in savings and investments to live out the rest of your life is a few hundred thousand dollars to provide a modest annual income, you'd better be pinching those pennies at every opportunity.

As long as they will be bringing in the promised BEVs, it makes sense to stick with ICE based products as well and let the market decide. As mentioned elsewhere here, I'm heading into my Lincoln dealership on Friday to finalize as order for the 2024 Nautilus and to plop down my deposit. Lincoln has made mistakes over the years, and continues to in my view (don't think 4 products that almost became 3 is enough to sustain a modern luxury make), but honestly since the Continental they have been killing it with their interiors, and the design of the all-new 2024 Nautilus inside and out is just stunning. Though granted, style is very much an eye of the beholder thing. BlueCruise is probably the best system of its type in the world and I like the design where you see the drivers information above a lower-positioned and smaller steering wheel. That is exactly my preferred driving set-up. Also, being able to have the navigation map out along with audio information and one or two other things is great. My wife is always switching around satellite channels when I'm trying to follow the map and it drives me crazy. I'm hoping that the new Google-based infotainment system is a big step forward as well. I have never before done a factory order on a vehicle I hadn't been able to test drive yet, but that's what I'm doing with this one. Sure, it's always a risk buying a first-year model with systems never before seen in the wild, but I'm choosing to hope for the best.

Well, I decided to pull the trigger. Heading into my Lincoln dealer (East West Lincoln) on Friday to walk them through the build and plunk down my $1,500 deposit. Black Label with the redwood interior. I'm hoping for at least a little wiggle on price and for their agreement to swap out the oversized wheels/low-profile tires for 19" or 20" wheels. (They did this for me before.)

Largely agree, but a couple of comments. First, starting with the all-new 2024 Nautilus, Lincoln now calls it "Lincoln BlueCruise." They decided it had much better branding and was better known. And, well, BlueCruise just trips off the lips in the way that ActiveGlide never could. Second, while I agree that Lincoln has found a niche in focusing on a more quiet and disconnected drive experience (what Lexus once had in its early days), the one thing that bugs me about this is that like almost everyone else (significantly, excluding Mercedes), Lincoln also forces its customers into increasingly over-sized wheels with diminishing-profile tires the more expensive trims you get. Gone are the days when larger wheels were something that you could opt into or out of. Big wheels/low profile tires might look nifty, but they make the ride noticeably rougher and are prone to wheel and tire damage from potholes and curbs.

...and it's an all-new design, not a short-term refresh to get us to its imminent EV replacement. I'm sure that Lincoln will at some point fill this space with a 2-row mid-sized crossover, but the near-term demise of the ICE-based Nautilus is, indeed, no longer in the cards.

Seems to me that we'll be seeing MY25s arriving sometime next year. The retooling of the former Edge/Nautilus assembly plant in Canada starts early 2024. Not sure how many months the retooling will take, but once it is done the factory will start production of the new BEV Explorers and Aviators. Then we should be seeing a lot more Ford and Lincoln BEVs arriving as Louisville is completed and goes into production. And as a Lincoln customer, I too am disappointed that the Rivian-based big electric Lincoln SUV never happened. But if Lincoln were all electric right now I would no longer be able to remain a Lincoln customer as where I currently live I lack the ability to do overnight charging. As mentioned here earlier I'm now looking at getting the new hybrid Nautilus (because it is a traditional hybrid, not a plug-in). I'm expecting that will be my last ICE-based vehicle, as by 2028 or 2029 my overnight charging problem will have been resolved. It's coming. No need to force it faster than is feasible for a large portion of the population.

Thanks so much to both of you. And yes, I meant continuously variable transmission, not cathode ray tube or critical race theory!

For those who know Ford products better than I do, I have a few questions about the hybrid drive train upgrade option on the 2024 Nautilus. It is a 4-cylinder internal combustion engine paired with an electric motor that delivers 100 hp. The vehicle overall is set at 305. I heard one commentator say the vehicle's hp is "limited" to 305. The base IC engine delivers 250 hp. So, does that mean that the ICE in the hybrid is a different engine, or is the combined hp restrained due to some other limitation, such as with the CRT. I've never owned a hybrid or a vehicle with a CRT (which some folks dislike). Is there something about a hybrid that calls for a CRT? Has this combination been used in other FMC vehicles, and has it performed well? I find, counter to my initial expectations, that I am actually considering the '24. Yeah, it is not built in North America. I have owned foreign-built vehicles in the past and that hasn't bothered me, but China's a hard pill to swallow. Still, it would be buying a vehicle from an American company even if assembled overseas, instead of, say, a Range Rover (something else I'm considering), an Indian company that builds its vehicles in Europe. There are just so many good things about the new 2024. It looks great inside and out (though of course both are subjective). The interior is roomier, as are the seats. The Blue Cruise and new Google infotainment/navigation software seems like a real step forward. The screen set-up looks good -- I think the Nautilus still won't have a head-up display option, but with the vehicle information set up there on screens immediately below the windscreen it seems that it would be superfluous. Many don't like the lower steering wheel, but I much prefer to have my steering wheel as low as possible, which means that the upper part of it typically obscures important driver information. I like the fact that the new Nautilus will be set up for all of that information to be viewed entirely above the wheel. I'd like more physical buttons, but those seem to be going the way of the Dodo in all cars these days. But I worry I would regret giving up the extra power and performance of the wonderful 2.7 twin scroll V6 paired with a traditional automatic transmission that I have in my 2019. So this is a long-winded way of saying that I'd welcome any thoughts folks here might have on how this particular hybrid engine/motor/transmission pairing works in real-day driving. I don't drive with a lead foot but I do like to be able to get off to a quick start when needed and to have that extra power for passing. Pretty certain I wouldn't be satisfied with the base 4-cylinder 250 hp engine. Thanks! EDIT: Just to be clear, the hybrid in the 2024 Nautilus is a traditional hybrid system, not a plug-in. Since I have no at-home charging ability, the fact that it is a traditional hybrid is the only reason I'm considering it -- although as stated above I have no personal experience driving any sort of vehicle other than full-on ICE.

It really does. And you can't get a red exterior in the Black Label. If I were to go for a '24 BL, I'd probably opt for a dark grey exterior and the Redwood theme interior. That looks like a nice combination.

The thing that bugs me about these kind of comparisons is that (however the relevant carbon emissions shake out) it is comparing two very different vehicles being used for a purpose for which only one of them is optimized. Instead of assuming that we are using both vehicles entirely for daily commutes, let's assume that both vehicles are being used entirely by a local contractor for hauling stuff and job site use. The amount of running around the Prius would have to do every day to shuttle stuff back and forth to the job site, and the need to rent a job site generator makes the carbon emissions of the Prius much greater. These two different vehicles are each great for their own intended use. Just don't try to use the Prius as a pickup truck.

Do you have even one link from your research? I looked quite a bit online and couldn't find even one link saying that surface winds increase at night.

Actually, it is the opposite. While obviously not as pronounced a difference as with solar, surface winds generally die down at night. Just Google "does the wind blow more at night?" and you'll get tons of responses, all saying that, no, the wind does not blow more at night. It blows more during the day. This is part of the reason for the conclusions of the Stanford study. If you get rid of baseload power, which California and much of the west is busy doing, and depend increasingly on intermittent renewable energy that is more available (in less costly direct to grid form) during the day, you're going to have to restrict folks from charging their EVs at night once the EV transition passes a certain point unless you want to invest in massive amounts of expensive battery or kinetic storage facilities. Here's just one link: https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2013/11/18/why-does-the-wind-diminish-after-sunset/

Sure, the U.S. has vast reserves of many EV-related minerals and metals but, like silver (the U.S. has the 8th largest silver reserves in the world), will the environmentalist left allow those reserves to be mined? So far they are still being successful in impeding domestic mining operations.

U.S. lithium reserves are huge (as are our rare earth reserves). Yet we still only have a single domestic lithium mine (same with rare earth mining). While federal pro-EV folks talk a good game about having us exploit our abundant domestic reserves, they are timid about actually opening up federal lands for this purpose or making the necessary regulatory changes to allow them to be able to go forward in any reasonable time-frame or to be profitable. In the meantime, many environmental groups (yes, the same folks saying we need to almost immediately switch over to EVs) remain fiercely opposed to essentially any new mining activity, and they lobby just as fiercely to stop needed regulatory reform. And the thing is, they typically don't even need to be successful in their litigation against proposed new mines. They just need to keep them tied up in courts long enough that the projects no longer make economic sense.

Such a dramatic change from even one year ago, when both Lincoln and Ford rated above the industry average. Let's hope FMC can turn things around in a positive sense as quickly as they did toward the negative.

Why doesn't the government then limit the permissible size and overall energy use of houses? Or limit a household to only being able to own one vehicle, which must be BEV? Or limit the ability of successful businesses to expand and use more electricity? Or allocate a set amount of permissible use of electricity to every U.S. resident? I should probably just shut up; don't want to give the government any more ideas...