Well Here is the Official January Sales Report

[RichardJensen]

The only way to revitalize the company is to actually sell vehicles.

Yeah. 130k Fusions, 130k Edges, 100k Five Hundreds, 75k Freestyles, 30k Milans, 30k MKZs, 20k Montegos, 30k MKSes, 30k MKXs

 

INSTEAD OF

 

300k Tauruses, 50k Sables, 30k Continentals, and 100k Windstars, all to fleets.

[Paul Selby]

Quality perception? Match the best warranty that is currently offered by any other automaker, and advertise the awards you have won.

 

God, I shoiuld have taken a buyout. This company is being run into the ground.

 

Problem is many people can't get the dealers or Ford to honor the current warranty without a fight. I know a few people that will no longer by a Ford due to shit dealer service and the dumb asses at the Customer service hotline. A longer warranty just means a few more years of hearing "They all do that" , "Couldn't find anything wrong" or my favorite from the customer service line "Sorry we can't help but your dealer has the final say".

[bb62]

Another intangible factor that goes with lower vehicle sales is the health of the dealership bodies. Lower sales to fleets still means lower profits to dealers since every vehicle sold has to pass through a dealership first . Lower dealer profits will mean many dealers going out of business and a further drain on Ford sales as people will have to search harder to find a dealer.

[matthewq4b]

About what I expected really. Current problem is Ford is not seeing consecutive sucsses with it's cars. Mediocer and dismal sums it up. The Fusion is meeting targets which in it's self is alright. But factor in the absolute bomb of the D3 cars. The loss of the loss the taurus sales. and the loss of the focus sales. Ford in all pratical purposes has one car that they are trying to change the company with.

 

This is not going to cut it. My suspisions about the 500 twins was right. We are not going to see rising sales but the first year was flash in the pan.

 

To put it in perspective how bad things have gotton. Fords second best selling vehical this year is the E-series. How messed up is that?

 

What traditionaly amounted to a niche market is now almost the biggest income generating modle.

 

When the Mid sized sedan can out sell the utility-cargo vehical there is a big problem. Projected or expected sales or not.

 

If I lower my expectaions does it make every thign I do a success.

 

The Fusion is only selling twice as many as the CV think about this for a minuit it is only doubling the sales of America's cop car. By far from these numbers I can See the Panthers genrating more cash than the CD3's.

 

Currently the top income generators for Ford are the F seires the E seires and the Panthers.

 

That my friends is a damn scary thought.

 

 

matthew

 

 

 

 

 

A mistake on Fords part for building this thing. The edge is pretty much going to make the Freestyle obsolete. The stupid Panthers

[NickF1011]

Another intangible factor that goes with lower vehicle sales is the health of the dealership bodies. Lower sales to fleets still means lower profits to dealers since every vehicle sold has to pass through a dealership first . Lower dealer profits will mean many dealers going out of business and a further drain on Ford sales as people will have to search harder to find a dealer.

 

That may actually be a good thing. The dealerships that can't evolve and compete are going to close. Ford's dealer network needs to shrink anyway.

 

Currently the top income generators for Ford are the F seires the E seires and the Panthers.

 

In a way, that's almost a reassuring thing. The F-series and E-series are the most dominant products Ford has and likely have the most stable customer base. If their cash cows remain relatively safe during the down period, that certainly makes their long-term outlook seem a little rosier.

Edited February 2, 2007 by NickF1011

[Bluecon]

Yeah. 130k Fusions, 130k Edges, 100k Five Hundreds, 75k Freestyles, 30k Milans, 30k MKZs, 20k Montegos, 30k MKSes, 30k MKXs

 

INSTEAD OF

 

300k Tauruses, 50k Sables, 30k Continentals, and 100k Windstars, all to fleets.

So you have many plants running at partial capacity. That is what is leading to the slow death of FMC.

[Bluecon]

Another intangible factor that goes with lower vehicle sales is the health of the dealership bodies. Lower sales to fleets still means lower profits to dealers since every vehicle sold has to pass through a dealership first . Lower dealer profits will mean many dealers going out of business and a further drain on Ford sales as people will have to search harder to find a dealer.

And that is Fords biggest problem, to many dealers and the customer is a problem attitude.

 

And remember a year ago and Ford management was making fun of GM.

I think Mulally is the right guy to save this company and I wouldn't give up just yet.

Edited February 2, 2007 by Bluecon

[2005Explorer]

So you have many plants running at partial capacity. That is what is leading to the slow death of FMC.

 

Well actually of those products listed there are only 3 factories building them. I would assume...(but maybe I am wrong)...that Hermosillo and Oakville should be running at close to full capacity now. Is Chicago even building now or did they just shut down until the 2008 models come out?

[bystander]

it would if Ford has some cheap spare capacity .. right now it does not ... Fusion cannot sell consistently more than 11-12k a month ... if it got 15 some month it was because the previous months it sold less and has excess inventory.

We went over this over ad over again .. but until Ford opens a second line for it, it cannot make more than that (well the could probably add more overtime to the Mexican plant :D)

 

Igor.

 

What the f*** are you talking about? The company is closing plants right and left. About all the company has left is spare capacity. Ford is in the shitter right now because it didn't develop enough strong products to fill its plants, not because it doesn't have enough capacity. If they thought they could sell another plant's worth of Fusions, you better believe they'd be converting one of those to build more. :slug:

[HKGuns]

Up to a point, yes, selling more = more profit.

 

Until ATP and residuals start to fall.

 

Then you start earning less per unit.

 

Say you can sell 130k units with an average discount of 750 per unit, and your 3 year residual value is 50%.

 

Now say at 180k units, you're spending $1500 per unit in incentives and your residual value is now 40%.

 

You are spending $750 more per unit, plus (to keep monthly payments constant) you have to throw an additional 10% on the hood of all leases.

 

Suddenly, 50k units of additional volume doesn't look so sweet. In fact, your profit overall is lower than it was at 130k.

 

---------------

 

Ultimately, every Ford vehicle program has to pay its own way. The Fusion should not subsidize the Focus, the Explorer should not subsidize the Five Hundred, etc.

 

If Ford gets every vehicle program profitable, the big problems take care of themselves (how does it go? "Watch the pennies and the dollars take care of themselves?")

 

This--by the way--is a powerful argument for globalizing the C platform. The NA Focus can then lose money on even a majority of models sold, if sales volume from Europe, etc., subsidizes it.

 

No, not up to a point. There is a huge capital investment in the plant equipment. Utilizing that investment at its maximum capacity is how you make money PERIOD. I dont' know how many shifts are running in HMO right now, but last year it was running three shifts and selling only two shifts worth of product.

Edited February 2, 2007 by HKGuns

[Bluecon]

Well actually of those products listed there are only 3 factories building them. I would assume...(but maybe I am wrong)...that Hermosillo and Oakville should be running at close to full capacity now. Is Chicago even building now or did they just shut down until the 2008 models come out?

Oakville is not running at full capacity(botched launch) and Hermosillo should be able to build at least 300k per year.

[bystander]

Richard,

 

I'll tell you why. Ford's biggest problem during the 1990s was finding a formula for doing mid-volume programs at a profit. And they never found that formula. While the gradual march from transfer line to CNC machines helped somewhat, every platform was being planned at volumes far higher than what was ultimately being sold. Ford simply doesn't know how to do programs in the very volume segments that it plans to enter now. In the early 2000s, Ford had 5 of the top best nameplates in the industry. This allowed Ford management to EXPLICITLY say that large volume projects would be the only profit drivers. Many lower volume programs were either cancelled or JVed out of the mainstream product development cycle. Now, this complete lack of capability from a mid-size volume perspective (again so as to be clear - I'm not talking of mid-size "vehicles") means a disadvantage compared with competition that is used to high levels of complexity in plant environments.

 

 

Well put. The market is fragmenting into smaller and smaller segments and the days of selling 300-400K of one car nameplate are fading fast (Camry and Accord notwithstanding). If Ford can't do 100,000 units of a model profitably, it will have a very difficult time climbing out of its hole, because the Japanese certainly can.

[2005Explorer]

Oakville is not running at full capacity(botched launch) and Hermosillo should be able to build at least 300k per year.

 

Oh I did not realize that Hermosillo had that much capacity...well then the whole talk of needing another plant to build Fusions, Milans or MkZ's is not a valid point. Looks like they should be able to build at least another 100K of those products there. If that is the case then they need to find more ways to sell them. I know fleet can get you in trouble, but honestly there has to be a decent mix to where you are not going to kill the carline with fleet and still be able to sell to the general public.

[Bluecon]

Well put. The market is fragmenting into smaller and smaller segments and the days of selling 300-400K of one car nameplate are fading fast (Camry and Accord notwithstanding). If Ford can't do 100,000 units of a model profitably, it will have a very difficult time climbing out of its hole, because the Japanese certainly can.

That is why Chrysler is in much better shape than Ford. Their lines are more flexible and their plants are more efficient.

[Bluecon]

Well this is a good point. Does anyone know if Hermosillo is in fact running at 100% or not??? If the demand is out there...why not crank Atlanta back up??? That would kill 2 birds with one stone. The people who hate the idea of a car built in Mexico could find an Atlanta model...or how about adding production at another flex-plant...AAI? Oakville?

If Ford had done that would the carline be making enough profit with the current pricing or would it have the Focus problem of making little or no profit because of high labor costs?

This is what shows you have no knowledge of the auto industry like most of the people who voice their opinions on this board. To convert Atlanta is a multi year billion dollar enterprise.

[2005Explorer]

This is what shows you have no knowledge of the auto industry like most of the people who voice their opinions on this board. To convert Atlanta is a multi year billion dollar enterprise.

 

I am on this board to learn about the auto industry...sorry that I don't know everything like you do. I can understand that it would be expensive. I thought the whole idea of the flex-plants however is to avoid that. I did not realize that Hermosillo had that much capacity. Once I was informed of that I now know that they can build at least 100K more product without needing another plant, so what was said before isn't really a point. I did not realize that you needed to be an "industry expert" to post on these boards.

Edited February 2, 2007 by 2005Explorer

[Bluecon]

It's never too late to quit. Heaven knows I wouldn't want a vehicle built by someone with your attitude about the product you're building.

Pioneer is obviously an intelligent electrician who cares much about his job and is frustrated at the weak management that is burying the company. I see no bad attitude with the guy. This is the type of worker you need to save this company. Give him the chance and this company will be on the road back.

[cheri/ck]

As usual, I just can't help myself again. Why do you folks argue car sales when Ford relies so heavily on their truck sales? Yes, the car sales need to be improved. And, I agree - the Fusion is a nice car, but not a Taurus replacement. I know people that still go to the Ford dealer wanting a new Taurus and can't find a car they like. The Fusion is a little car to them. At least my 80-year-old Mom likes the 500 styling, but even she doesn't like the way the 500 powers or handles compared to her 2001 Sable with its 3.0 Duratec.

 

Ford has truly messed around with their most loyal customer - the truck people. I don't think it is odd that the Dodge Ram sales are up because in my mind they are getting a bunch of sales from people that want a reliable diesel truck to use hard - like pulling a big 5th wheel across country. The latest Ford diesels should be a huge embarassment to Ford and I don't know one person that doesn't think the 6.4 isn't a continuation of the 6.0. Ford has turned off a big segment of their truck people with the 6.0 diesel failure and they are trying to sweep it under the carpet. It won't work.

 

And, where did these customers go - to Dodge and the Cummins mostly, maybe a few to the Dura-Max, both of which have a much better perception of reliability. And, I also know that a lot of people will say the SuperDuty is a better chassis-derived truck than either of the two. Most of these people think that Dodge has made huge gains in the capability of their trucks, the Chevy may be close and most just don't "trust" Ford any more and don't care.

 

Factor in an F-150 that is barely above Nissan's Titan in most consumer polls as to the most unreliable half-ton truck. Factor in cars that no one even knows about due to such incredibly awful advertising. And, then, factor in no presence in the smaller truck market which Ford used to own. Of course that is one thing I simply cannot understand. We get the mostly useless Explorer SportTrac with the 4.6 V-8 and Ford can't even find a way to get that engine into a Ranger?

 

I would say that Ford hasn't figured out a way to make anything right any more. The Camry is killing them because of that perception of quality. With cars - it's a hard sell and will continue to be the same until some reliability numbers become real. But with trucks, well that's a profitable segment and there are still a bunch of us out there waiting for Ford to come up something that fits into the higher fuel cost, but still need a half-ton truck crowd. We don't need the latest 3/4 ton F-150 and don't want the problems that have never been fixed with the 5.4 engine. They could start by entering a market that they have ignored - the mid-size truck market - with a nice 4.6 V-8/5-speed tranny that gets 20 mpg in 4x4 form and 4-door option.

 

And, of course, advertise it so that some one out there knows that it exists.

[Bluecon]

I am on this board to learn about the auto industry...sorry that I don't know everything like you do. I can understand that it would be expensive. I thought the whole idea of the flex-plants however is to avoid that. However I did not realize that Hermosillo had that much capacity. Once I was informed of that I now know that they can build at least 100K more product needing another plant isn't really a point. I did not realize that you needed to be an "industry expert" to post on these boards.

It is not my fault you express your opinion when you have no knowledge of the subject.

You must admit that you present yourself as an expert on the auto industry.

 

And cheri/ck you have the truck market down pat.

Edited February 2, 2007 by Bluecon

[2005Explorer]

It is not my fault you express your opinion when you have no knowledge of the subject.

You must admit that you present yourself as an expert on the auto industry.

 

And cheri/ck you have the truck market down pat.

 

Whatever. It's just a message board and I am not going to take a scolding from someone who does not even own a Ford. Pretty hard to comment on the state of current Ford products if you don't drive one everyday.

Edited February 2, 2007 by 2005Explorer

[Mark B. Morrow]

That is why Chrysler is in much better shape than Ford. Their lines are more flexible and their plants are more efficient.

 

 

What exactly do you base this on? I don't know of any proof that Chrysler can build more types of vehicles on its lines than Ford or GM does. Chrysler isn't in such great shape itself. Benz is carrying the enterprise at this point. I know how much you enjoy bashing Ford for everything it does. Time will tell. At this point I think Ford is a better bet in the long run.

[Tico]

How many people buy Mustangs in the Winter? duh of course sales are going to be down!

 

As for the 09 Car, there are more changes then just a nose job and its only been on the market 4 Model years (released as an 05 in calender year 2004)

 

I think people vastly over estimate the pony car market. The '05 sold like gang busters because it was the first really "new" pony car to hit the market in many years. Three or four model years later, face it, everyone who wanted on and had the cash has one. I seriously doubt the market will support Mustang, Camaro and the Dodge for more than three or fours years before Dodge once again drops out. Heck Mustang by itself can only sell 150K or so units a year. Two more entires won't mean the market expands to 300 or 400K. It will mean sales taken away from Mustang no matter how good the redesign is. The only question is how much will it lose and can Ford hang on until Dodge and maybe GM drop out of the market again. Hertiage is Mustang's big trump card. Why else would so many people buy 210 HP V6 Mustangs? Ford is gonna need to play all the cards it has to get through the next 5 years...

[focus05]

I just wanted to post something that should give some perspective on things (see below) .Notice how much Toyota has grown in some areas and shrunk in others. If you take a look at their 2006 sales, for example, you'll notice that the Corolla is WAY off 2005 levels, like 20%! What you'll also notice is that a steady introduction of new products and update of existing products has kept the company growing. They too, however, have let cars wither (Echo).

 

The point is that small does not mean you cannot grow profitably. Toyota only has two cars that sell over 200,000 units yearly. The rest are these pathetic 75-175k sellers that provide no good results, obviously! Just because the Camry is Toyota's big seller does not mean that the Fusion needs to be Ford's. Ford needs a competitive, high-quality product in that segment, that's it. Do you think the Toyota has lamented that they couldn't crack the truck market to this point? Do you think Toyota workers are pissed that Ford sold 900,000 F-series in 2005, but Toyota could only muster 126,000?

 

The fact is Toyota products have ups and downs. The Corolla in 2000, 2001 and 2002 was greatly outmatched by superior products from Ford and Honda. However, the Focus proved unreliable and the Civic had its set of teething problems like many new products do, and the Corolla marched on for TWO years, relatively uncompetitive, but a competent offering in the class and sold well (relatively flat sales). It got redesigned into a car that was not better than the Focus and on par with the Civic, yet its sales had jumped significantly above both. The Corolla had a reputation that Toyota built from a platform that sold 100k then 150k then 200k then 250k then 350k a year. It took 15 years, but they did it. And did it profitably. Similar story with the Camry. But the Corolla this year proved that even Toyota is not infallible as its sales were significantly off last year (and look to to be this year as well).

 

My greater point, though, is that Ford needs its bread and butters, like the F-series. It needs its solid product offerings that sell 100-150k. And in the meantime, it needs to realign its manufacturing to handle these lower numbers (hence factory closings and moves to more flexible arrangements). When all of this is done, a smaller, more profitable dealer network will emerge with a vastly more efficient and flexible manufacturing process, and Ford can do what Toyota successfully did; grow.

 

And it will hurt like hell in the meantime, but there isn't a silver bullet. The brand has to rebuild, and the best way to do that is to shrink, build smaller quantities of better products and watch people slowly return. Just FYI, that's 40% of growth since 2000, over 50% if you include 2006 here. That's what you can do with consistency and the ability to turn profit on moderate volumes. But, Ford has to shrink and suffer to get to that point. And if you cannot look past the numbers you see, if all you can think about are the old days at Ford, then quit. Because right now, there is a competitive threat out there that cannot be solved by being irrational or focused on sales numbers; only profit. Ultimately, the creditors only care about dollars, not the fact that Ford was the top selling rental brand in the U.S. in 2005. And the workers at Ford will not be spared by dumping either, because the creditor doesn't care about them either.

 

Toyota sales 2000-2005:

 

2000: 1,619,205

2001: 1,741,254

2002: 1,756,257

2003: 1,866,314

2004: 2,060,049

2005: 2,260,296

 

Echo 48,876 42,464 30,859 26,167 3,899 1,544

Corolla 230,156 245,023 254,360 325,477 333,161 341,290

Celica 52,406 35,720 22,893 14,856 8,710 3,113

Supra 2 3 0 0 0 0

Camry 422,961 390,449 434,145 413,296 426,990 431,703

Avalon 104,078 83,005 69,029 50,911 36,460 95,318

MR2 Spyder 7,233 6,254 4,705 2,934 2,621 780

Prius 5,562 15,556 20,119 24,627 53,991 107,897

Scion xA 3,962 24,184 28,033

Scion xB 6,936 47,013 54,037

Scion tC 28,062 74,415

Sienna 103,137 88,469 80,915 105,499 159,119 161,380

RAV4 53,777 86,368 86,601 73,204 70,314 70,518

4Runner 111,797 90,250 77,026 109,308 114,212 103,830

Highlander 0 86,699 113,134 120,174 133,077 137,409

Land Cruiser 15,509 7,591 6,752 6,671 6,778 4,870

Sequoia 9,925 68,574 70,187 67,067 58,114 45,9044x2 Tacoma 147,295 161,983 151,960 154,154 152,933 168,831

Tundra 100,445 108,863 99,333 101,316 112,484 126,529

 

 

ES 300 41,320 44,847 71,450 65,762

ES 330 75,916 67,577

LS 430 15,871 31,110 26,261 23,895 32,272 26,043

SC 300 450 7

SC 430 181 14,326 14,462 10,298 9,708 8,360

GS 300 21,921 19,848 14,788 11,228 6,914 27,807

GS 430 6,158 4,613 2,458 2,078 1,348 5,650

IS 300 15,540 22,486 20,306 13,559 9,972 15,789

[Roadrunner]

Yeah the D3 sales are very ugly...When do the 08 hit the market?

 

Great question!

 

I don't know.

[matthewq4b]

silvrsvt @ Feb 1 2007, 03:33 PM)

Yeah the D3 sales are very ugly...When do the 08 hit the market?

Great question!

 

I don't know.

 

 

I do.

 

 

It hits the market three years too late

 

 

 

Matthew