Told You So

[mlhm5]

I don't know where everyone was looking after Xmas, but that was the consumer's last big gasp. He has been down for the count since then and earlier sales warnings were not as severe as they should have been, considering the state of the economy.

 

IMO, there total US market will be less than 15MM vehicles sold in 2008.

 

"Just days before Monday, when automakers will report their US sales for February, Chrysler and Ford released a series of reports preparing the media and Wall Street for declines in their sales.

 

Overall, Ford predicts a sales decline of about 10% compared to last February..."

 

However Honda is looking through rose colored glasses, IMO.

 

"Contrary of the generally gloomy outlook, Honda Motor Co. CEO Takeo Fukui said he saw no signs of recession in the US, and Honda did not expect decline in sales this year."

 

Autosavant - link fixed. They moved it.

Edited March 2, 2008 by mlhm5

[TomServo92]

I don't know where everyone was looking after Xmas, but that was the consumer's last big gasp. He has been down for the count since then and earlier sales warnings were not as severe as they should have been, considering the state of the economy.

 

IMO, there total US market will be less than 15MM vehicles sold in 2008.

 

"Just days before Monday, when automakers will report their US sales for February, Chrysler and Ford released a series of reports preparing the media and Wall Street for declines in their sales.

 

Overall, Ford predicts a sales decline of about 10% compared to last February..."

 

However Honda is looking through rose colored glasses, IMO.

 

"Contrary of the generally gloomy outlook, Honda Motor Co. CEO Takeo Fukui said he saw no signs of recession in the US, and Honda did not expect decline in sales this year."

 

Autosavant

 

You do realize that the article you linked was written by Igor (of BON fame) don't you?

 

This decline in sales for 2008 has been mentioned many times on BON and isn't breaking news. So, you really can't say "Told you so" at all now can you?

Edited March 1, 2008 by TomServo92

[mlhm5]

You do realize that the article you linked was written by Igor (of BON fame) don't you?

 

This decline in sales for 2008 has been mentioned many times on BON and isn't breaking news. So, you really can't say "Told you so" at all now can you?

 

 

The corporations are not telling the whole story. The economy is far worse than these early Feb sales reports suggest. In Jan Ford was suggesting just the first 6 months would be rough. The 300+ point drop in the Dow yesterday was the first sign that Wall Street is clued in as to how bad shape the consumer is in.

 

Inflation has taxed energy and food by 11% over the last year and is headed to tax us again this year by 20%. If that happens, it will be a 30% tax (on take home pay) on food and energy since Jan of 2007, while both health care and college tuition are going up at double digit rates.

 

Since energy and food are a huge part of over 50% of Americans budget, so you can count the consumer down for the count.

[TomServo92]

The corporations are not telling the whole story. The economy ... blah, blah, blah...

 

Yeah, we all know your opinion from your dozens of posts on the subject. Why can't you give it a rest for awhile... :boring:

[mlhm5]

Yeah, we all know your opinion from your dozens of posts on the subject. Why can't you give it a rest for awhile... :boring:

 

 

I might also add that mom and pop are in deeper debt than ever before, so the same thing that happened in the mortgage crisis is about to happen to the credit card industry as mom and pop borrow more to try and stay afloat, because what you see below is not sustainable.

 

 

[TomServo92]

I might also add that mom and pop are in deeper debt than ever before, so the same thing that happened in the mortgage crisis is about to happen to the credit card industry as mom and pop borrow more to try and stay afloat, because what you see below is not sustainable.

 

GIVE IT A FUCKING REST ALREADY!!!!

[philsshon2]

I have to comment on this. Theproblem with our econmy, car sales, etc is that we want things now, and don't look at the big picture. There's nothing wrong with saving for six months to get a big screen tv. you can saving hundreds of dollars in interest that way. ok, back to the car news.

[Extreme4x4]

As an ex Mortgage Loan Officer (got out of the business a couple of years before it got ugly), I would like to know how they are figuring their DTI. The reason I say this, is that this number is ridiculous................... and completely unrealistic. If that number was true, then everyone in the country would be bankrupt.

 

The ONLY person I ever looked to do a loan for, who had a negative cashflow per month, was an 80 year old woman with 84K in CC debt. Nobody else was even close.

 

Me and my husbands personal DTI is 53%, and that is based on everthing............. food, gas, child care, and misc.............. on top of our "debts."

 

Anyway, negatoid, show me how they arrived at their figures................. and I will show you how incorrect they are. I have a feeling that there are alot of "assumptions" there.

[snooter]

As an ex Mortgage Loan Officer (got out of the business a couple of years before it got ugly), I would like to know how they are figuring their DTI. The reason I say this, is that this number is ridiculous................... and completely unrealistic. If that number was true, then everyone in the country would be bankrupt.

 

The ONLY person I ever looked to do a loan for, who had a negative cashflow per month, was an 80 year old woman with 84K in CC debt. Nobody else was even close.

 

Me and my husbands personal DTI is 53%, and that is based on everthing............. food, gas, child care, and misc.............. on top of our "debts."

 

Anyway, negatoid, show me how they arrived at their figures................. and I will show you how incorrect they are. I have a feeling that there are alot of "assumptions" there.

 

consumers for the last 3 months have spent more mney then they actually made...first time tht has occurred for 3 consecutive months...consumer is in trouble which does not bode well for michigan

[Extreme4x4]

"Consumer." My, what a broad tagline. Did you spend more than you made last month??? I know I didn't. I know that noone that I know spent more than they made.

 

I think what you are seeing is a skewing of the curve, based on people who have gotten themselves in trouble with their homes. You know, those people who are teetering on the brink of foreclosure. Thus, this statistically small amount of people, is making "consumers" as a whole, look bad.

 

If everyone spent more than they made the last three months, then, statistically............. about 1/2 of them would have to declare bk. This is based on the very low savings rates in this country.

 

Thus, let me see a real breakdown of these numbers. Until then, it is just more of "the sky is falling" crowd.

[matthewq4b]

"Consumer." My, what a broad tagline. Did you spend more than you made last month??? I know I didn't. I know that noone that I know spent more than they made.

 

I think what you are seeing is a skewing of the curve, based on people who have gotten themselves in trouble with their homes. You know, those people who are teetering on the brink of foreclosure. Thus, this statistically small amount of people, is making "consumers" as a whole, look bad.

 

If everyone spent more than they made the last three months, then, statistically............. about 1/2 of them would have to declare bk. This is based on the very low savings rates in this country.

 

Thus, let me see a real breakdown of these numbers. Until then, it is just more of "the sky is falling" crowd.

 

 

I think some of this is related to easy credit. How many people do you know make the mimumum payments on credit cards ? We are seeing more and more people using credit cards to make ends meet. At some poitn and time it is all going to fold in on it's self. Also the free fall of housing prices in some places is not helping either. When your morgage is worth more than the home it' self that is going to add to it. Are the figures as posted correct proboly not.

 

For me it is hard to relate to how bad or not bad things are in the U.S at the moment. When we are in the midst of a boom. Hell a labourer that can operate a shovel is making $20 HR. High School Students will not even look at part time jobs unless they are making $15hr or above. Needless to say customer service in Edmonton is non exsistant in about 90% of the buisnesses.

 

 

I'm not sure what the solution is to fix the problems in the U.S or if there is even a solution avalible. The measures that would help stabilize the situation are not socially or politically acceptable at this point and time in history.

 

 

Matthew

[Ford Jellymoulds]

CNBC say Ford will make fewer cars in the first quarter of 2008, Ford Motor expects to produce 685,000 vehicles in North America during the first quarter of 2008, 55,000 fewer than the first three months of last year.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23384356

[jpd80]

The link has now changed to Igor's review of the Pontiac G8 GT.

Much more interesting article and everything you read about the G8 applies to the FG Falcon.

Read 'em and weep fellas.

[mlhm5]

As an ex Mortgage Loan Officer (got out of the business a couple of years before it got ugly), I would like to know how they are figuring their DTI. The reason I say this, is that this number is ridiculous................... and completely unrealistic. If that number was true, then everyone in the country would be bankrupt.

 

The ONLY person I ever looked to do a loan for, who had a negative cashflow per month, was an 80 year old woman with 84K in CC debt. Nobody else was even close.

 

Me and my husbands personal DTI is 53%, and that is based on everthing............. food, gas, child care, and misc.............. on top of our "debts."

 

Anyway, negatoid, show me how they arrived at their figures................. and I will show you how incorrect they are. I have a feeling that there are alot of "assumptions" there.

 

Here is the editor of US News and World Reports, Zuckerman, with the same figures.

 

"The average debt-to-income ratio for the middle class in America has climbed to 141 percent, twice what it was in 1983. In the United States as a whole, the ratio of all debt to GDP rose to 342 percent at the end of September 2007, more than double what it was in 1975."

 

US News and World Reports - 2.28.08

[mlhm5]

CNBC say Ford will make fewer cars in the first quarter of 2008, Ford Motor expects to produce 685,000 vehicles in North America during the first quarter of 2008, 55,000 fewer than the first three months of last year.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23384356

 

If you figure that number will be say 225K v. 2007 by the end of the year, and that of that number 75% are light trucks, what would that mean in bottom line numbers?

[LincolnFan]

Shit, why do you live in US mlhm5? (Assuming you do)

[mlhm5]

Shit, why do you live in US mlhm5? (Assuming you do)

 

Poor little boy, did someone say something to upset you an hurt your little baby feelings? Do you need to call your mommie?

[theVengineguy]

Well, wages are getting cut, and the vehicle prices don't seem to be decreasing. Line worker pay goes from $30/hour to $14/hour. All the people Ford and GM bought out will not find jobs that pay the same, not unless they go to college, but when you got a wife and kids, college becomes more difficult. My analogy is if the wages are getting cut, the vehicle prices should too. 28K for a Flex is rediculous, it should start at 21-22K, it is nothing but a tall standing car. Same can be said for the Outlook/Acadia.

[campbell53]

The ignorance on this board is getting so deep it is painful even coming here. This post would get an "F" in a 9th grade economics class. Good God...is this the best we got?

 

quote name='theVengineguy' date='Mar 2 2008, 10:59 AM' post='314948']

Well, wages are getting cut, and the vehicle prices don't seem to be decreasing. Line worker pay goes from $30/hour to $14/hour. All the people Ford and GM bought out will not find jobs that pay the same, not unless they go to college, but when you got a wife and kids, college becomes more difficult. My analogy is if the wages are getting cut, the vehicle prices should too. 28K for a Flex is rediculous, it should start at 21-22K, it is nothing but a tall standing car. Same can be said for the Outlook/Acadia.

[Noah Harbinger]

As an ex Mortgage Loan Officer (got out of the business a couple of years before it got ugly), I would like to know how they are figuring their DTI. The reason I say this, is that this number is ridiculous................... and completely unrealistic. If that number was true, then everyone in the country would be bankrupt.

 

The ONLY person I ever looked to do a loan for, who had a negative cashflow per month, was an 80 year old woman with 84K in CC debt. Nobody else was even close.

 

Me and my husbands personal DTI is 53%, and that is based on everthing............. food, gas, child care, and misc.............. on top of our "debts."

 

Anyway, negatoid, show me how they arrived at their figures................. and I will show you how incorrect they are. I have a feeling that there are alot of "assumptions" there.

 

He was comparing "Liabilities" - not monthly debt payments - to "Disposable Personal Income" - income minus taxes, not total income - from the table of "Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations".

 

The report he cited - go to lines 30 and 47, like he mentioned.

 

So obviously, those numbers are completely full of shit.

Edited March 2, 2008 by Noah Harbinger

[theVengineguy]

The ignorance on this board is getting so deep it is painful even coming here. This post would get an "F" in a 9th grade economics class. Good God...is this the best we got?

 

quote name='theVengineguy' date='Mar 2 2008, 10:59 AM' post='314948']

Well, wages are getting cut, and the vehicle prices don't seem to be decreasing. Line worker pay goes from $30/hour to $14/hour. All the people Ford and GM bought out will not find jobs that pay the same, not unless they go to college, but when you got a wife and kids, college becomes more difficult. My analogy is if the wages are getting cut, the vehicle prices should too. 28K for a Flex is rediculous, it should start at 21-22K, it is nothing but a tall standing car. Same can be said for the Outlook/Acadia.

 

Cambell you are a tool just like so many of the other dreamers that run this country. You absolutley have no ground to argue against my post, or grade it you troll. You will see one day when companies will not be able to push 30K station wagons. You live in a dream world to think that this concept will last even when these vehicles have launched. I hardly see any Outlook/Acadias on the road, and I live in GM territory, so what does that say? At least be constructive, and not sit on your pompus arrogant ass just discrediting people.

[Noah Harbinger]

I might also add that mom and pop are in deeper debt than ever before, so the same thing that happened in the mortgage crisis is about to happen to the credit card industry as mom and pop borrow more to try and stay afloat, because what you see below is not sustainable.

 

Again looking at the statistics you used: Look at line 48: Household net worth as percentage of disposable personal income: That number has increased by 14% between 2002 and Q3 2007. That shows households in general having more money to spend.

 

American households have a combined net worth of $58.6 trillion dollars - $72.7 trillion in assets. That sounds like a pretty good number to me. It also appears to be increasing, despite our trade deficits. In fact, it's growing much faster than the trade deficits, meaning our money is not being sucked away.

 

 

Assuming real estate should have been growing at 4% annually (a historically cited figure), and taking 2002 as a baseline (which was before things started to get nuts nationwide), that means the real estate market is overvalued by 4 trillion dollars, or 5.5% of the nation's assets. Definitely significant, but not catastrophic, especially when one looks at the annualized growth over the last 5 years -- if you subtract that 4 trillion from the current net worth of households, you would still find that net worths have increased by an average of 7.5% a year over the last 5 years.

 

Another interesting point: Mortgages are listed as a liability -- and they account for 3/4ths of the increase in household liabilities. But that is an income-producing liability, in the sense that it offsets rent. So, for those who will be able to keep their homes (still a majority of those who bought during the years of record-low interest rates - remember, at its worst, only 1/3rd of home buyers used ARMs), in the long run (say, 10 years from now) it will mean more income that can be spent on consumer goods.

 

Currently, household liabilities are 19.4% of assets; in 2002, 18.5%.

 

Thank you mlhm, for those statistics -- I had been looking for something so comprehensive for years. In fact, I feel like they paint a much rosier picture than I expected to find, once the current 'crisis' subsides.

 

As an aside, might I suggest that we replace the income tax with a "net worth" tax? A 4.7% Net Worth tax would completely replace the income tax, and pay for a balanced budget, including social security. It would be a flat tax - everyone pays the same rate - but it would still be progressive in nature, as those who are barely staying afloat pay no tax at all, unlike a sales tax. There wouldn't need to be an estate tax, since the assets would just continue to be taxed under the new owner.

Edited March 3, 2008 by Noah Harbinger

[suv_guy_19]

Cambell you are a tool just like so many of the other dreamers that run this country. You absolutley have no ground to argue against my post, or grade it you troll. You will see one day when companies will not be able to push 30K station wagons. You live in a dream world to think that this concept will last even when these vehicles have launched. I hardly see any Outlook/Acadias on the road, and I live in GM territory, so what does that say? At least be constructive, and not sit on your pompus arrogant ass just discrediting people.

 

 

The Acadia and Outlook are selling well. You obviously not looking if you don't see them...either that, or your area is not representative of the US as a whole. As for your complaints about 30K station wagons, I think its time for you to move into the 21st century.

[Extreme4x4]

What someone would like to pay for something, has no bearing on what it actually costs in the real world.

 

I think a Ford GT should only cost $30K. This way, I would be able to buy one. :rolleyes:

 

Thank you others, for chiming in on this ridiculous "the sky is falling, or has already fallen," thread. It gets very old to see people pull small things out of actual statistics, to try to suit their preconceived conclusions.

 

While I do not think that all is rosy with the economy, I also do not think it is as bad as some are making it out to be. Just the natural fluctuation, and a long overdue correction.