Marketshare Growth

[Edgey]

Does anybody want to predict when we may see Ford's share of the North American market rise again?

 

I don't think there is any doubt that Ford will return to growth, but I don't think any domestic automaker has seen sustained growth in the last 20 years. Ford is in a free-fall at the moment so growth will come from recovering what it has been losing very quicly in the last 5 years. I think Ford has to lose at least 4% of its share before it finally stops.

 

My guess is that Ford will first halt market errosion by 2010. My guess is based largely on their product plans and some other gut instincts regarding Toyota's recent problems and the effect a very healthy GM will have on the pereception of Detroit in the coming years.

Edited August 13, 2006 by Edgey

[RichardJensen]

Passenger car marketshare is up.

 

So was pickup truck marketshare before July. It may be up as of the end of July as well.

[igor]

Passenger car marketshare is up.

 

So was pickup truck marketshare before July. It may be up as of the end of July as well.

 

yup - the only thing falling in marketshare are SUV's .... and that is caused as much by the decline in Expy/Explo as the staggerring success of the new Rav 4 (which i am stil ltrying to grasp). Should revert some as Edge and new Expy debut this fall, and should be flat or up next year when also the Escape is new, and Edge truly settles in as a model.

 

Igor

Edited August 13, 2006 by igor

[silvrsvt]

the staggerring success of the new Rav 4 (which i am stil ltrying to grasp).

 

 

Why whats the difference in sales for the RAV4 vs everything else?

[DCK]

There market share should stabalize in 2009 if they get the right products out, which is pretty far off.

[igor]

Why whats the difference in sales for the RAV4 vs everything else?

Rav4 just about doubled it sales from last year. I am not sure how they compete with the other small/midsize crossover SUV's on volume, but the growth by itself is what effects marketshare.

 

Igor

[Harley Lover]

Don't forget to factor in the sales that will go away with plant closings - specifically, the Taurus comes to mind. Even though those units might carry little or no profit, they still represent "market share" that will be lost. Ford will have to generate a lot of new sales to overcome the loss of these units if share is to grow.

 

I'd almost rather focus on some other unit of measure, like profit/unit, since Ford might lose "market share" with the closure of some plants, yet actually be more profitable as the product mix improves.

Edited August 13, 2006 by Harley Lover

[igor]

^^OK I should specify - Ford has been growing OVERALL AND RETAIL Marketshare for about a year now in Cars and since January in Trucks.

 

You are corrects overall Car marketshare will shrink when Taurus dies, but retail marketshare will remain uneffected.

 

Lastly, I want to point out that Ford admitted in January, that marketshare growth is not their top priority.

 

They are focused on 1) reducing fleet sales 2) reducing incentives 3) being profitable. They mentioned that any share over 15% is acceptable to Ford, and Ford is not actually opposed to shrinking to 15% if that means that they can cut all the old unprofitable models, shut down all the plants that are runnig on 50% and simply have plant per platform and only modern retail-attractive vehicles.

 

That is why as of yet, there is no talk yet of opening up another line of plant for Fusion despite Hermosillo clearnoy not being able to meet the deman for the CD3 triplets.

 

Igor

Edited August 13, 2006 by igor

[bystander]

Rav4 just about doubled it sales from last year. I am not sure how they compete with the other small/midsize crossover SUV's on volume, but the growth by itself is what effects marketshare.

 

Igor

 

The latest RAV4 is vastly improved. It has more interior room, can be had packin' a 268hp V6, and achieves far better fuel economy than the Escape. It will be tough for the Escape to maintain its position in the face of such a strong competitor.

[silvrsvt]

The latest RAV4 is vastly improved. It has more interior room, can be had packin' a 268hp V6, and achieves far better fuel economy than the Escape. It will be tough for the Escape to maintain its position in the face of such a strong competitor.

 

 

But its also grown a lot larger then the Escape has. Compare the Rav4 to the upcoming Edge and the Edge totally blows it away. I thought that the Equinoix and Torrant where to compete with the Escape, but they are closer in size to the Edge and Explorer.

 

The question to ask is the RAV4 taking sales from the Highlander? The Highlander is pretty homey looking and I thought I heard some place that it was going to be sold primary as a hybird since the RAV4 has grown so much.

[igor]

^^^I would not be surprised... the Rav4 is actually larger now than the Highlander .... I see no point for both of them, unless Highlander is about to grow considerably to compete with the lambdas and freestyle

 

Igor

[DCK]

But its also grown a lot larger then the Escape has. Compare the Rav4 to the upcoming Edge and the Edge totally blows it away. I thought that the Equinoix and Torrant where to compete with the Escape, but they are closer in size to the Edge and Explorer.

 

The question to ask is the RAV4 taking sales from the Highlander? The Highlander is pretty homey looking and I thought I heard some place that it was going to be sold primary as a hybird since the RAV4 has grown so much.

The Rav4 is much cheaper than the edge and gets great gas mileage, as much as i hate3 to admit it, it is the best small SUV on the market by far. The edge is in another class.

[RichardJensen]

The Rav4 is much cheaper than the edge and gets great gas mileage, as much as i hate3 to admit it, it is the best small SUV on the market by far. The edge is in another class.

ZUH?

 

Est'd prices for the Edge sit right on top of the RAV4. The RAV4 is no longer a small SUV. It's a midsize crossover, just like the Edge, Murano, etc. Cheapest RAV4 V6 is $22k, most expensive base MSRP for the RAV4 is $25k, Edge price range is estimated by Yahoo to be $22-28k.

 

You can get a 4 cylinder RAV4 for $20k+, but at that price the Escape is pretty doggone attractive too.

[bystander]

These arguments that the RAV4 shouldn't be compared to the Escape because it has grown in size out of the Escape's class are just plain silly. Comparing price (MSRP's on Edmunds), the RAV4 and Escape are clearly in the same price class. Toyota has simply built a better mousetrap because Ford (again) rested on its laurels too long. The current Escape first went on sale in the fall of 2000 (that's six years without any significant design updates). Maybe the 2008 Escape will catch up some, but I doubt it will be able to match the RAV4's combination of price, power, space, and economy.

Edited August 15, 2006 by bystander

[Edstock]

"Toyota has simply built a better mousetrap"

 

You're entitled to your opinion.

 

The truth is that Toyota has simply built a bigger RAV. Consumers who wish they could buy something smaller have the Escape, and those who want a better value than the Toyota can move up to the Edge.

[RichardJensen]

Toyota has simply built a better mousetrap because Ford (again) rested on its laurels too long.

Well, I tell you what.

 

End of next year, let's tally up the total number of RAV4s sold, and compare that against the number of Edges and Escapes sold.

 

Let's see Ford will sell about 160k Escapes give or take, and another 120k Edges (per their estimates). Gee what does that add up to? 280k vehicles? And how many RAV4s is Toyota going to sell?

 

C'mon.

[Edgey]

I'm suspicious of monthly figures, they seem to be useless in forcasting annual growth. That's why I formulated my question in the scope of 'long-term' growth. I'm hoping growth happens before 2010, but sustained growth still seems to depend on how Ford recovers from losing cars like the Taurus and Crown Vic and eliminating their dependency on fading markets, like SUVs. There still seems to be a lot to lose before they are in a position to gain.

Edited August 15, 2006 by Edgey

[igor]

OK Edgey ... 6 months is not "long term" but it is an indicator - if Ford can stop SUV slump in marketshare, they will be growing ... the rest of the segments are pulling enough ... even with the sdeadweight of Ranger and CV and such, the rest of the lineup is adding enough volume - or losing so little volume - compared t ocompetition, that they are gradually growing marketshare.

 

 

There is no telling whther this will continue from now on - I believe so - but this is as much information as there is right now .... the rest we can only assume.

 

Last yer ford did grow marketshare, but only thanks to the Family plan... this year's growth is real and is growth in both overall and retail share.

 

Igor

[ANTAUS]

The focus is stablizing, which will be hard to do since in the next few years, Fords core profits/sales are coming from BOF vehicles, one which could be dumped (Panthers). So the focus has become more about what to replace those sales with. Maybe by 2010 when the Panther is shot, Ford might be counting on sales of it's B-segment vehicles to make up for the 200K lost sales of the Panthers.

 

Just as the 500/Mtg and Fusion/Milan together supposed to make up for the Taurus sales.

 

Just how the Edge/Freestyle, pick up the sales drop of Explorer's,

 

Etc.

[DCK]

Well, I tell you what.

 

End of next year, let's tally up the total number of RAV4s sold, and compare that against the number of Edges and Escapes sold.

 

Let's see Ford will sell about 160k Escapes give or take, and another 120k Edges (per their estimates). Gee what does that add up to? 280k vehicles? And how many RAV4s is Toyota going to sell?

 

C'mon.

What are we going to forget about the Highlander? That is quite stupid, The Rav4 offers much better fuel economy for the automatic, larger, modern design, a high quality interior, and better engines. TheEscape is dated, poor fuel economy for its size, smaller, cheapo interior, less powerfull engine choices. The Escape should have been redesigned last year, not merely a facelift 7 years after it launch's like we will get next year. The Edge competes with the Highlander.

 

OK Edgey ... 6 months is not "long term" but it is an indicator - if Ford can stop SUV slump in marketshare, they will be growing ... the rest of the segments are pulling enough ... even with the sdeadweight of Ranger and CV and such, the rest of the lineup is adding enough volume - or losing so little volume - compared t ocompetition, that they are gradually growing marketshare.

There is no telling whther this will continue from now on - I believe so - but this is as much information as there is right now .... the rest we can only assume.

 

Last yer ford did grow marketshare, but only thanks to the Family plan... this year's growth is real and is growth in both overall and retail share.

 

Igor

Ford is not growing market share and especialy where it counts retail numbers. Let's wait and see at the end of the year, they haven't evenly firmly stabalized they only lessened the dramatic drop because for once in the last 2 decades they finally put out relevant products. The problem they still have years to go to until they can compete on most levels.

 

"Toyota has simply built a better mousetrap"

 

You're entitled to your opinion.

 

The truth is that Toyota has simply built a bigger RAV. Consumers who wish they could buy something smaller have the Escape, and those who want a better value than the Toyota can move up to the Edge.

Read on how i responded to Richard, Their is no benefit of the escape now compared to the competition, it has nothing except a hood full of incentives to get customers to look at it, they left it to rot while the competition advanced, typical ford mistake that hopefully with the new management they discontinue that very bad practice that put them in this very bad situation.

[silvrsvt]

What are we going to forget about the Highlander? That is quite stupid, The Rav4 offers much better fuel economy for the automatic, larger, modern design, a high quality interior, and better engines. TheEscape is dated, poor fuel economy for its size, smaller, cheapo interior, less powerfull engine choices. The Escape should have been redesigned last year, not merely a facelift 7 years after it launch's like we will get next year. The Edge competes with the Highlander.

 

 

Your forgetting that the Escape got a refreshing back in the 2005MY, new headlights, dash and the 2.3L I4 was offered in it. Also remember the new RAV4 offers a 5 speed auto where the Escape has to make due with a 4 speed unit and will most likely get a 6 speed next January. Also the I4 units in the Escape and RAV4 offer nearly identical MPG ratings.

[RichardJensen]

What are we going to forget about the Highlander?

Add in the Freestyle, then. No matter how you slice it, Ford has more product, and will have more sales, in that price-space. Say 70k Freestyle sales, add that to 280, and you get 350k. Don't think the RAV4 and Highlander are going to touch those numbers.

 

And while you're at it, include the Mariner.

Edited August 16, 2006 by RichardJensen

[Biker16]

The problem is people who think that the status Quo is OK, and the choices made were the best choices to make. when they weren't.

 

 

They is a denial of what has happened, and a failure to acknowledge what needs to be done.

 

people who hide in there shell and ignore what is going on, because they can't face the fact that thier time has past, and the time for half measures has come to an end.

 

Toyota out sells ford, and makes >10 billions dollars a year by selling cars, Ford makes money on credit, not by selling cars. You can no longer deny that their is a problem, and For may rn out of money trying to fix it the old fashioned way.

[DCK]

Your forgetting that the Escape got a refreshing back in the 2005MY, new headlights, dash and the 2.3L I4 was offered in it. Also remember the new RAV4 offers a 5 speed auto where the Escape has to make due with a 4 speed unit and will most likely get a 6 speed next January. Also the I4 units in the Escape and RAV4 offer nearly identical MPG ratings.

Wow a refresh no one noticed at the same time it should of been all new, it was typical ford legislation which destroys products, tarnishes names, and puts the company out of business. Let's see how the new escape turns out, it is only launching 2 years late and not getting new sheetmetal which is just being down right cheap in todays market place.

 

And your wrong about the nearly identicale gas mileage:

 

http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/Spec_Gla...4&trimid=-1

 

 

 

http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/Spec_Gla...e&trimid=-1

 

 

Add in the Freestyle, then. No matter how you slice it, Ford has more product, and will have more sales, in that price-space. Say 70k Freestyle sales, add that to 280, and you get 350k. Don't think the RAV4 and Highlander are going to touch those numbers.

 

And while you're at it, include the Mariner.

The point is when you constantly type sale numbers you constantly ignore the trends. Ford should be selling more than toyota, they have 4 times the dealers and are an american company. Plain and simple if they actually had products that weren't outdated and old as in the escapes case now, that weren't dull and had enough power as in the freestyles case they wouldn't have to worry about toyota, but they screwed up for 2 decades with product life cycles and which products to bring out and that is why year after year they are posting decline after decline. The edge is different and i know that, but the escape needs to be all new, after 7 years they aren't even going to give it new sheetmetal with the new model launching next year, no other company except ford would do that, you thiink they escape looking like it did n 2000 will be able to compete with the buch of new products that are all new launching also? Of course you do because ford is perfect! or are you going to say will they have the edge. BS, the edge is in a different class and price range, just because they launch one product it is like that gives them an excuse to ignore all others, and ford does it best. Ford never tries to be class leading in any segment other than trucks, they never do and don't say the mustang because right now the mustang has 0 competition.

 

Also you don't even know how much the escape will sale with the launch of the edge.

 

The problem is people who think that the status Quo is OK, and the choices made were the best choices to make. when they weren't.

They is a denial of what has happened, and a failure to acknowledge what needs to be done.

 

people who hide in there shell and ignore what is going on, because they can't face the fact that thier time has past, and the time for half measures has come to an end.

 

Toyota out sells ford, and makes >10 billions dollars a year by selling cars, Ford makes money on credit, not by selling cars. You can no longer deny that their is a problem, and For may rn out of money trying to fix it the old fashioned way.

Oh they will deny it, they will defend decade long product cycles and poor gas mileage and lazy redesigns, they will defend it all. AThe truth is Ford needs to change, the new products look like they are doing it but now they are ignoring the old products, the focus is just a mess. The escape after 7 dull years on the market will not get new sheetmetal with its "redesign" next year, which is down right bad [product planning.

Edited August 16, 2006 by DCK

[NickF1011]

, the focus is just a mess.

 

The Focus is getting all-new sheet metal and interior next year. Oh but of course, "It should have been on C1 three years ago!" :rolleyes:

 

Or did you mean "focus" as in they should be "focusing" elsewhere? :lol: Damn confusing product names!!! They should just start making up words like the Japanese.

Edited August 16, 2006 by NickF1011