KBB and Wall Street Journal claim Ford big loser in September

[bdegrand]

Ford is predicted to take a big sales hit in September. Auto insiders and WSJ write that Ford will be the only top 5 automaker losing market share and sales for the month of September. CHRYSLER is gaining on Ford and GM and Toyota are pulling away.

[fuzzymoomoo]

I wouldn't put too much stock into one month, there's a lot of new model changeover happening right now, especially with the F-150. If it becomes a trend, then I'll start to worry

[akirby]

Exactly - one month doesn't make a trend. I'm sure if that's the case there are mitigating circumstances.

[RichardJensen]

I think a reasonable person could also make a case that car sales are in a bubble right now, given the incentive spending at Chrysler and the low quality loans at GM.

[bdegrand]

Exactly - one month doesn't make a trend. I'm sure if that's the case there are mitigating circumstances.

I hear what you are saying about only one month....however, Chrysler/Fiat will be reporting DOUBLE DIGIT sales for the 7th consecutive month and now is only 1% behind Ford in market share. To me, that's something to be concerned about.

[Deanh]

2 cents...Transit Connect commercial inventory....there is none, Full size transit, very few commercial, high interest in non existant passenger variants, 15 Fiesta trickling in, 15 Focus not here yet, 15 Fusion barely trickling in, Taurus sales toilet, F-150, THE crown jewel, sales leader etc etc LIMITED SUPPLY of 14's, E-series...GONE. Mustangs....pretty much GONE, no 15s yet. Explorers..15s trickling in, Edges...they ran out of sunroofs for a while and advertising a new 15 that wont be here till Feb March doesnt help...theres more, but hopefully it paints a picture.

[akirby]

I hear what you are saying about only one month....however, Chrysler/Fiat will be reporting DOUBLE DIGIT sales for the 7th consecutive month and now is only 1% behind Ford in market share. To me, that's something to be concerned about.

 

But how is Chrysler getting double digit sales increases? Are they doing it with big discounts/rebates/cheap prices? What is their profit margin?

 

Remember GM was number one in market share but went bankrupt. Bigger is not better if you don't have sufficient profits to go along with the volumes.

[RichardJensen]

I hear what you are saying about only one month....however, Chrysler/Fiat will be reporting DOUBLE DIGIT sales for the 7th consecutive month and now is only 1% behind Ford in market share. To me, that's something to be concerned about.

 

Try to understand this in terms of:

 

* profit

 

* sustainability

 

Chrysler is *buying* market share. If you think that this is a sustainable long term plan.............................................................

[Deanh]

I hear what you are saying about only one month....however, Chrysler/Fiat will be reporting DOUBLE DIGIT sales for the 7th consecutive month and now is only 1% behind Ford in market share. To me, that's something to be concerned about.

actually I think it reflects hood money on LARGE inventories of 2014s, a game ford doesnt play anymore, and the more that own a Dodge the better IMO, because in all sincerity, most wont buy another....

[RichardJensen]

actually I think it reflects hood money on LARGE inventories of 2014s, a game ford doesnt play anymore, and the more that own a Dodge the better IMO, because in all sincerity, most wont buy another....

 

Wow. That's quite the low-level burn--

[Kev-Mo]

It is already a trend. Fiat has been gaining, Toyota passed Ford a few months ago. I get the profit thing but bleeding market share always indicates mistakes/weakness somewhere in the organization. Some products doing great, some doing poorly - lots to be concerned about, and I am sure they are at headquarters.

 

"Ford has no ready excuse for its performance. KBB claims sales of all new vehicles sold in the United States rose 9.1% to 1,240,000. Based on the performance of other large manufacturers, Ford's problem is not isolated to competition with just one or two rivals."

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fords-prospects-fall-apart-2014-09-26

 

 

Kelly Blue Book says no excuses. I am sure the opinion will be different here.

[RichardJensen]

It is already a trend. Fiat has been gaining, Toyota passed Ford a few months ago. I get the profit thing but bleeding market share always indicates mistakes/weakness somewhere in the organization. Some products doing great, some doing poorly - lots to be concerned about, and I am sure they are at headquarters.

 

"Ford has no ready excuse for its performance. KBB claims sales of all new vehicles sold in the United States rose 9.1% to 1,240,000. Based on the performance of other large manufacturers, Ford's problem is not isolated to competition with just one or two rivals."

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fords-prospects-fall-apart-2014-09-26

 

 

Kelly Blue Book says no excuses. I am sure the opinion will be different here.

 

 

You want to know what it felt like to be the only banker making sane loans during the housing bubble?

 

THIS is what it felt like.

 

GM is selling vehicles to people with abysmal credit and Chrysler is all but giving people thousand dollar checks for walking through the door.

 

And you think FORD has a problem?

Edited September 26, 2014 by RichardJensen

[Deanh]

It is already a trend. Fiat has been gaining, Toyota passed Ford a few months ago. I get the profit thing but bleeding market share always indicates mistakes/weakness somewhere in the organization. Some products doing great, some doing poorly - lots to be concerned about, and I am sure they are at headquarters.

 

"Ford has no ready excuse for its performance. KBB claims sales of all new vehicles sold in the United States rose 9.1% to 1,240,000. Based on the performance of other large manufacturers, Ford's problem is not isolated to competition with just one or two rivals."

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fords-prospects-fall-apart-2014-09-26

 

 

Kelly Blue Book says no excuses. I am sure the opinion will be different here.

Kev-mo...read my post, its from the Dealership level...we are inventory constrained right now, biggest loser is F-150 as the changeover for the 2015 models is happening, Ford doesnt have a problem, which will most likely reflect in increased sales numbers when all the new models are up to speed, but from our level right now its frustration central....

Edited September 26, 2014 by Deanh

[bdegrand]

You want to know what it felt like to be the only banker making sane loans during the housing bubble?

 

THIS is what it felt like.

 

GM is selling vehicles to people with abysmal credit and Chrysler is all but giving people thousand dollar checks for walking through the door.

 

And you think FORD has a problem?

I'm a Ford guy true and true....BUT, even if GM and Chrysler are giving away vehicles with incentives and poor credit...It's vehicles that Ford lost and the sales numbers reflect it. Edited September 26, 2014 by bdegrand

[Kev-Mo]

 

 

You want to know what it felt like to be the only banker making sane loans during the housing bubble?

 

THIS is what it felt like.

 

GM is selling vehicles to people with abysmal credit and Chrysler is all but giving people thousand dollar checks for walking through the door.

 

And you think FORD has a problem?

I don't even think of GM as a competitor, their market share is somewhat phony - I strongly agree. Nobody in their right business mind is benchmarking GM.

Let's talk about the real competition- the cars dominating every neighborhood in America- Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Hyundai. All likely posting big gains and all making good profits (well maybe not Nissan, but they are certainly improving rather than declining).

[03 LS]

It is already a trend. Fiat has been gaining, Toyota passed Ford a few months ago. I get the profit thing but bleeding market share always indicates mistakes/weakness somewhere in the organization. Some products doing great, some doing poorly - lots to be concerned about, and I am sure they are at headquarters.

 

"Ford has no ready excuse for its performance. KBB claims sales of all new vehicles sold in the United States rose 9.1% to 1,240,000. Based on the performance of other large manufacturers, Ford's problem is not isolated to competition with just one or two rivals."

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fords-prospects-fall-apart-2014-09-26

 

 

Kelly Blue Book says no excuses. I am sure the opinion will be different here.

Ford predicted sales decrease for 2014! For whatever reason, that did not happen until now. Excuses, no. Plan, yes.

Month after month, Ford warned when F150 change over starts, sales will decline. Why is KBB acting so surprised?

[Edstock]

When you look back at the Tempo era and the piles of cash on the hood necessary to move that POS, so Ford may lose market share, at least Ford is stressing the VALUE of their product. What a change in head-space.

 

Compared to Chryfiat and GM, which is the better strategy for market share 10 years from now? It isn't all about next month's results.

[Kev-Mo]

Kev-mo...read my post, its from the Dealership level...we are inventory constrained right now, biggest loser is F-150 as the changeover for the 2015 models is happening

Thanks Dean, I get it. But my point - if you are inventory constrained, then there were mistakes/misjudgments made in the organization. Asian competitors are not inventory constrained, and they are making nice profits. There is a weakness that needs to be addressed for better model changeovers at Ford. Others are apparently doing it better.

 

Not the end of the world as new product is coming, but room for improvement to not leave the store shelves empty.

[bdegrand]

I don't even think of GM as a competitor, their market share is somewhat phony - I strongly agree. Nobody in their right business mind is benchmarking GM.

Let's talk about the real competition- the cars dominating every neighborhood in America- Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Hyundai. All likely posting big gains and all making good profits (well maybe not Nissan, but they are certainly improving rather than declining).

 

Standards and Poors Rating service just upgrade GM yesterday.

[RichardJensen]

I'm going to go off on bubbles.

 

WHENEVER bubbles burst, you get all these people crawling out of the woodwork chirping and repeating each other about how irresponsible participants in the bubble were.

 

Well, guess what, people? When bubbles inflate, the only thing you can hear is the sound of people saying that this particular bubble isn't a bubble and criticizing individuals and corporations who are not participating in the bubble. These people, will--without an ounce of shame--be the same people who talk about how we all 'should have known' that the bubble was inflating after it bursts.

 

Here you have Chrysler and GM engaged in some of the most reckless sales tactics seen, despite both of them being only five years removed from bankruptcy.

 

It seems beyond clear to me that the only company that learned ANYTHING USEFUL from the 2008 crisis was Ford, because they're the only Detroit-themed company that isn't going all-in on this utterly unsustainable market.

 

And what do they get for enforcing a measure of fiscal discipline?

 

A steady drumbeat of criticism from people who learned ABSOLUTELY NOTHING from previous bubbles and who will learn nothing from this bubble either. A constant parade of people who, despite their age, continue to smell like they just fell off the turnip truck. Perpetual naifs convinced despite centuries of evidence to the contrary that *this* bubble will be sustainable.

 

GAH!

Edited September 26, 2014 by RichardJensen

[RichardJensen]

Standards and Poors Rating service just upgrade GM yesterday.

 

WHO CARES?

 

Do you HONESTLY think that these ratings agencies are even REMOTELY COMPETENT?

 

If I gave S&P enough money, they'd give my ham sandwich an investment grade rating.

Edited September 26, 2014 by RichardJensen

[Deanh]

 

Wow. That's quite the low-level burn--

truth is in the trade ins...their cars do NOT hold together...just took in a 300 SRT, 60000 miles, rod knock. Do a lot of courtesy deliveries, Dodge turn ins are all falling apart...even the GM turn ins are head and shoulders above their QC

[RichardJensen]

Hey, here's a thought:

 

Why don't you enter Usain Bolt in a quarter mile race against a top-fuel dragster?

 

Oh, Bolt lost?

 

Well, I guess that means he's not very fast.

 

The rules are DIFFERENT for these companies. The only way Ford can compete with the Koreans in terms of flexibility in labor force is to CLOSE EVERY PLANT IN THE US AND MOVE TO KOREA.

 

Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Hyundai. All likely posting big gains and all making good profits

[Deanh]

Thanks Dean, I get it. But my point - if you are inventory constrained, then there were mistakes/misjudgments made in the organization. Asian competitors are not inventory constrained, and they are making nice profits. There is a weakness that needs to be addressed for better model changeovers at Ford. Others are apparently doing it better.

 

Not the end of the world as new product is coming, but room for improvement to not leave the store shelves empty.

Ford cut back production a while ago, 30% to be exact, we were told we would never be over stocked again, rebates have declined in amounts and ATPs are higher. My only issue is the 27 page "all you can eat" ordering guides, they STILL need to streamline option packages...but thats another issue...we were warned a while ago inventory would become constrained due to product upheaval...so in that light Ford KNEW this would happen and were fully pre-pared...hasnt helped my damn paycheck though...

[Kev-Mo]

Compared to Chryfiat and GM, which is the better strategy for market share 10 years from now? It isn't all about next month's results.

 

Fiat Pickup trucks appear to be standing well as a formidable competitor on merit. Jeep brand has momentum that any manufacturer of any widget would envy.

Repeat: Nobody in their right business mind is benchmarking GM and their practices. I hope readers here begin to recognize that the real competition comes from Asia.

Edited September 26, 2014 by Kev-Mo