RichardJensen Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 Yeah. How much of that V6 volume is retail? When the 300 came out (things have changed since, but how much?) it was widely reported that 1) 40% of all sales were Hemis, and 2) 25% of all volume was to fleet customers. Therefore, if you assume very little overlap among the fleet and Hemi volume, only 58% of V6 volume was retail the first year the 300 was on the market. I wonder what the retail volume is for the V6 today. I don't believe that there is any kind of sizable retail market for RWD sedans in the $20-30k range, and I don't believe that there's any kind of sustainable retail market for RWD sedans from entry level brands above $30k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 Yeah. How much of that V6 volume is retail? When the 300 came out (things have changed since, but how much?) it was widely reported that 1) 40% of all sales were Hemis, and 2) 25% of all volume was to fleet customers. Therefore, if you assume very little overlap among the fleet and Hemi volume, only 58% of V6 volume was retail the first year the 300 was on the market. I wonder what the retail volume is for the V6 today. I don't believe that there is any kind of sizable retail market for RWD sedans in the $20-30k range, and I don't believe that there's any kind of sustainable retail market for RWD sedans from entry level brands above $30k. GM beleives there is gold in RWD, a region considered dead by many and they're putting a lot of faith in that platform throughout their divisions. They're almost back in profit and I'm sure they realise another costly blunder would be a major setback. I think GM will succeed where Chrysler failed because they have more market pull. Ford is still navel gazing and cutting back production, lifeboat strategy ect. If GM takes off, it will be years if ever, before Ford catch them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 It took the Escalade and the much loved Sigma cars, CTS, STS, and SRX to bring back the brand. The SRX is much loved? I think I've seen 2 on the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 (edited) I'm sure they realise another costly blunder would be a major setback. The question is whether they have systems in place to prevent a major setback. Nobody goes looking for failure. Failure indicates that the system is flawed. In this case, GM's 'W' body sales have been in the 500k range in the past. They are not now, due to market shrinkage. They may eventually shrink to a point where GM can replace the 'W' with the Zeta, but GM must be exceptionally careful about how they position the Zeta and what they expect from it. The overwhelming majority of sedan buyers in the $20-30k range want either FWD or AWD. They do not trust RWD. Therefore, GM must be content to live off slim retail pickins in that price range, with a similarly slim ongoing demand in the $30k+ market. GM needs about 60k Camaro sales, and 60k Impalas, Grand-whatever, and Electra-something or another sales apiece to keep Oshawa busy. I don't think they should plan on building the Zetas anywhere else, and I don't think they should expect high retail sales under $30k. If that's all GM wants, I think they can get it. But if they're planning on keeping two plants running on Zeta volume (c. 500k units), fuhgeddaboudit. Edited November 15, 2006 by RichardJensen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bec5150 Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 I don't believe that there is any kind of sizable retail market for RWD sedans in the $20-30k range, and I don't believe that there's any kind of sustainable retail market for RWD sedans from entry level brands above $30k. I agree 110%. FWD is better from a design, assembly, drivability for your average (or below average) driver, and in the way to go for your mainstream cars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 Hence my skepticism about keeping two plants humming on Zeta volume, the way they keep two plants running on W volume today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 (edited) Hence my skepticism about keeping two plants humming on Zeta volume, the way they keep two plants running on W volume today. Then I guess they are smart to go with the "Fall in Love" Camaro and a Pontiac (G6?). With fleet sales being wound back, that means more private sales and more emotional buys. I know a lot of people will find it hard to walk away when they see a cherry coupe sitting there walk in a dealership. It worked for Ford so, winning back the Camaro fans should be a snap. remember the last muscle car war, Mustang was first but GM really cashed in. Edited November 15, 2006 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waymondospiff Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 I don't think one can extrapolate the LX cars' success or failure into the larger market for RWD vehicles. The LXes have lousy interiors, polarizing styling, and horrid sightlines. They were the "in" thing for a couple of years, but they're yesterday's news now. A more mainstream vehicle with sharp-yet-conservative styling, up-to-snuff interior trim, and usable interior room could be successful. AWD should be available. V6 & V8 models. And positioning. It has to be a "top-line" family sedan, like an Avalon or Maxima - not a cheaper German luxury sedan like the 300 is advertised as. I'm not saying the Zetas will be a runaway success, but I'm very leery of trying to paint the viability of RWD sedans based on one vehicle's fortunes. Scott Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 All I'm saying from now on is GM can keep one plant busy, but if they think they can steadily keep two-------------- I just don't see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluecon Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 The overwhelming majority of sedan buyers in the $20-30k range want either FWD or AWD. They do not trust RWD. Therefore, GM must be content to live off slim retail pickins in that price range, with a similarly slim ongoing demand in the $30k+ market. GM needs about 60k Camaro sales, and 60k Impalas, Grand-whatever, and Electra-something or another sales apiece to keep Oshawa busy. I don't think they should plan on building the Zetas anywhere else, and I don't think they should expect high retail sales under $30k. If that's all GM wants, I think they can get it. But if they're planning on keeping two plants running on Zeta volume (c. 500k units), fuhgeddaboudit. Many people buying a car don't even know if it is rear or front wheel drive or care. And many like me dislike FWD. Plus the baby boomers are moving out of pickups and SUVs and many will want a rear wheel drive vehicle, since that is what they have been driving all their life. GM is only changing the one plant (line) to rear wheel drive for now. As far as I know there is actually one large plant with 2 seperate assembly lines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 Many people buying a car don't even know if it is rear or front wheel drive or care. And many like me dislike FWD. Plus the baby boomers are moving out of pickups and SUVs and many will want a rear wheel drive vehicle, since that is what they have been driving all their life. GM is only changing the one plant (line) to rear wheel drive for now. As far as I know there is actually one large plant with 2 seperate assembly lines. 1) I beg to differ. People do know, and they are quite superstitious about RWD. Not everyone, but a lot of people, and of those people shifting from trucks and SUVs, it's projected that since the majority of SUV buyers opted for AWD, they will want AWD (not RWD) from the sedans and CUVs they trade into. 2) That's the first sane thing I've seen in all this talk of Zeta this and Zeta that. GM can probably sell 200k RWD Zetas with no difficulty at all. But you double that number and you've got a lot of problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ehaase Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 FWD Chevrolet lovers can buy the larger redesigned Malibu debuting next year. The Zeta Impala will be a smash hit with buyers in the South and on the east and west coast, provided the styling is attractive. In addition to the Camaro and Impala, the next generation Buick Lucerne will probably also use the Zeta platform. Since Ford won't update the Panther and will probably drop it within 5 years, my next car will probably a Zeta Impala with a V8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 FWD Chevrolet lovers can buy the larger redesigned Malibu debuting next year. The Zeta Impala will be a smash hit with buyers in the South and on the east and west coast, provided the styling is attractive. In addition to the Camaro and Impala, the next generation Buick Lucerne will probably also use the Zeta platform. Since Ford won't update the Panther and will probably drop it within 5 years, my next car will probably a Zeta Impala with a V8. If you really want an 6.0 SS Commodore, they're already sending LHDs to Middle East rebadged as chevs. 1/4 mile in 13.9 s with ZF 6-speed auto, but price might kill you, arabs don't mind paying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
630land Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 (edited) I wonder how many will realize that the 09 Impala doesn't full fill the 'good ol' boys' definition of a 'real car' 1. It's unibody 2. It's designed in Australia 3. It will be built in Canada with its free 'liberal' health care. 4. They will not be all v8 powered 5. 99% sure it will not offer a true manual tranny Edited November 16, 2006 by 630land Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Good grief. Once the Town Car moves to STAP, there will be no RWD cars assembled stateside except the Vette and the Mustang. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 (edited) I wonder how many will realize that the 09 Impala doesn't full fill the 'good ol' boys' definition of a 'real car' 1. It's unibody 2. It's designed in Australia 3. It will be built in Canada with its free 'liberal' health care. 4. They will not be all v8 powered 5. 99% sure it will not offer a true manual tranny We Aussies are the good 'ol boys and we still build real cars with V8s & 6-speed manuals. Our Zeta Holden Caprice, 118" wheelbase big overhangs and all, 13.9 s 1/4 mile with 6.0 6-speed auto, something a CV or Town Car can only dream about. :reading: To answer your quibbles. 1. Get over it , the rest of the planet has moved on from BOF, that's dinosaur technology reserved for gramps reliving the good 'ol days 40 years ago and commercials like pick-ups. 2. Only the really important archetecture stuff was developed in Australia, I'm sure GM NA have a perfectly disgustingly "apple pie styled" exterior for the American customers. 3. Doesn't every country have free health care? America is the best country in the world. 4. Of course they will not all be V8s but, nobody is forcing you to only buy a V6, Holden is working on a supercharged version of the 3.6, expect power similar to 5.3 V8. 6. Nobody knows for sure if a manual will be offered butas i said, 13.9 s 1/4 mile with 6.0 6-speed auto is not too shabby. you and your mates could rag on that GT Mustang. :happy feet: Cheer up mate, it's only a car you know....... Our Car....... hehehehehehehehe! Edited November 16, 2006 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluecon Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 I wonder how many will realize that the 09 Impala doesn't full fill the 'good ol' boys' definition of a 'real car' 1. It's unibody There is absolutely no reason to put a frame on a car. You want a frame you buy a truck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluecon Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 1) I beg to differ. People do know, and they are quite superstitious about RWD. Not everyone, but a lot of people, and of those people shifting from trucks and SUVs, it's projected that since the majority of SUV buyers opted for AWD, they will want AWD (not RWD) from the sedans and CUVs they trade into. Superstitious about rear wheel drive? I don't know anybody that is the slightest bit superstitious about rear wheel drive. Must be something in the South Dakota water. I don't see AWD as very neede by many people. Maybe all the Walter Mitty types here on BON. We Aussies are the good 'ol boys and we still build real cars with V8s & 6-speed manuals. Our Zeta Holden Caprice, 118" wheelbase big overhangs and all, 13.9 s 1/4 mile with 6.0 6-speed auto, something a CV or Town Car can only dream about. Unbelievable that Ford USA has become incapable of designing their own cars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Good grief. Once the Town Car moves to STAP, there will be no RWD cars assembled stateside except the Vette and the Mustang. And the BMW Z4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hemiman Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Zeta looks good! If I don't buy a left over LS in the next six months, I'll wait for the Impala. Be my first brand new GM product. I might still consider a Hemi Charger (Coronet), very slowly starting to accept its styling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 (edited) And the BMW Z4. Really? I thought all they built here were their big pretentious SAVs (and that's an A, not a U, and don't you forget it, bub). Wait a minute. Where does GM build the Solstice/Sky? Edited November 16, 2006 by RichardJensen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
630land Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 (edited) "To answer your quibbles. 1. Get over it ," Umm, I shoulda put in the 'good old boys' post "EXTREME SARCASM" ROFL. :hyper: No way was I serious!! Making fun of 'know it all' old timers.... Some good old boys think old Mopars were BOF. Seen websites that include them under 'real BOF cars' Edited November 16, 2006 by 630land Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old_fairmont_wagon Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 GM is banking that RWD is seen as a "premium" feature, which will draw consumers to the car. They are hoping to get enough volume to offset the extra expense associated with its construction. My mind is wondering, if there will be a RWD impala that shares a platform with the Camaro, will there also be a firebird and bonneville ressurection? Make the Chevy's look more throwback/neoclassic and make the Firebird/Bonneville speak the pontiac G6 language. Tune the suspensions differently making the Pontiac more hard core performance and the Chevy's more balanced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
630land Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Pontiac dealers are merged with Buicks, so they will be lucky to see anything from Zeta. Ford Australia is milking an old RWD design, and also, Ford USA made S197 all by themselves. But, the days of each branch of Ford [and all car makers] making their own car platforms, due to nationalism, are over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Wait a minute. Where does GM build the Solstice/Sky? Oh yeah, those too! Wilmington, DE, somewhere near the screen door factory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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