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mustang84isu

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  1. mustang84isu

    Considering buying some Ford Stock

    I would recommend against buying stocks because they are low in price; it's a great way to lose money. I was one of the ones that was buying Ford way back when it was in the $1 to $2 range back in 2008/2009, and continued buying on the way up thinking it was going back to $20-30/share. I made some good money initially, but I lost a lot also by continuing to hold and hope for the best. This stock has been terrible since 2014, and I don't see things getting better any time soon. I have actually done far better in the last several years by selling off chunks of my Ford holdings and diversifying into other companies such as Microsoft, Intel, and Johnson & Johnson. Ford is considered very undervalued right now, so if you are going to take out a speculative position I don't think it will hurt, but don't expect to get rich off it. Auto stocks, especially mature companies like Ford, are just not very good investments in general. And Ford is even more difficult because the Ford family has so much control over the shares (which is great to keep the company family owned, but not necessarily good for stockholders). Add in the unknown effects of the coronavirus on China sales and the global economy; there are just way too many risks to the auto industry right now.
  2. IMO, it's time for Hackett to go. He has been a disaster. This is what Hackett said this time last year about Ford's poor results and the outlook for 2019: 2019 ended up far worse than even 2018 was. The Explorer launch was a disaster, warranty costs continue to increase, every single market including North America is seeing declines, Ford continues to bleed market share, and the mobility division continues to be an increasingly larger drag on profitability. $3.7 billion net income in 2018 down to a measly $47 million in 2019. The only bright spot in 2019 was Ford Credit. I had high hopes for Hackett, but he is proving to be a major disappointment.
  3. mustang84isu

    Genesis GV80

    I like it, but it definitely feels Aviator-influenced.
  4. mustang84isu

    Tesla stock

    It's a sign of a late stage bull market. People throwing money into companies with less than stellar financials because they want to try and catch the wave. Fear of missing out. It's obvious Tesla is manipulating its financials if you really dig into the numbers. The profit in Q3 was almost exclusively due to ZEV credits and Tesla pushing off some vendor payables into this quarter. We'll see if they sold enough vehicles to make another profit in Q4, but the stock definitely feels like it is in bubble territory right now.
  5. mustang84isu

    Ford Nearly Completes Car Purge

    My wife and I bought an Edge Titanium a couple years ago as her new daily driver. She was previously a Corolla owner. She has a harder time seeing out of it and seeing over the hood and doesn’t like parking it because she can’t tell where the lines are. Also, this may just be how the Edge’s suspension is set up, but it is not the most sure-footed vehicle over bumps and corners—my MKZ and even her Corolla had better ride quality on the terrible roads around my area. Long story short, she wants to go back to a sedan for her next vehicle…and Ford will have nothing to offer. And I’ve always driven sedans and Ford will have nothing to offer in the spring when I’m looking at another vehicle (besides the dead-man-walking Fusion and MKZ, and I’m not interested after hearing some of the de-contenting that is going on with 2020 models). Handling may not matter to the majority, but it does matter to some. Some people like having a trunk. Some people like a lower seating position. Some people like the better rear visibility out of a sedan. A few extra MPG may not seem like a big deal, but it does add up over time. I've seen a few comments that Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials are driving this move away from sedans. What is fashionable now may not be fashionable in 10 years, especially with Gen Z who have way different thought processes than even Millennials. They’re almost becoming the anti-Millennial generation. Ford is giving up on 1/3 of the market that buys cars now, and data has proven that orphaned buyers usually defect to other brands, so we will likely see more permanent market share loss. I did a quick excel spreadsheet, and Ford'st post 2008 market share peaked in 2011 at 16.67% and has been steadily declining every year since then, currently sitting at 14.12% YTD. So for years, Ford has been saying that we want to right size the business by cutting unprofitable models and segments, with the reasoning that fewer models and more efficiency will improve margins. Yet the facts so far do not bear this out; Ford's post-'08 operating margin peaked in Q1 of 2011 at 10.03%, and has steadily declined since then to 1.05% as of Q3 2019. Gross and net margins also peaked around 2011 and have been steadily decreasing since then. I'm not an accountant to really analyze deep into why this is happening, but clearly Ford is doing something wrong here and this is part of the reason Wall Street is so bearish on them. It's just interesting that despite all the cutting of models and brands throughout the years, and more focus on SUVs, that margins have never improved like they were supposed to. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/profit-margins
  6. mustang84isu

    Ford Nearly Completes Car Purge

    These are not going to age well. The proportions are all out of whack. You get the worst of both worlds - lack of utility with the sedan shape, and poor handling with the crossover ride height. That's why it worries me when Ford talks about "white space" CUV's that have a sedan shape....it's the answer to the question that nobody asked. Just give us sedans and CUV's and allow consumers to make a choice on whether handling or utility is more important to them.
  7. I think this month is a precursor to what we are going to continue seeing if the economy goes into recession in 2020. Relying solely on high ATP SUVs is a mistake, especially when consumers become price sensitive in a downturn. Hopefully the new Baby Bronco and Bronco can stem some of that loss, but I don't have a lot of confidence in Ford lately with the botched Explorer/Aviator launches, Hackett's lack of clarity on the turnaround, and Ford's general performance in the market. Ford is likely going to permanently lose market share to Asian/German manufacturers who continue to invest in sedans. I'm one of those that will likely have to look elsewhere this spring, as much as I hate to do it because I have been loyal to Ford for the last 15 years. I don't like crossovers though, and unfortunately Ford has given me no choice but to look elsewhere. I am glad to see Lincoln continuing to do well. 10,850 is the highest monthly total I can remember in a long time...especially for November. In December months they usually crack 10K, but I can't remember the last time I saw a 10K total in November.
  8. mustang84isu

    MKZ to be Renamed Zephyr, go RWD

    As much as I like to hear this, we've been hearing of the fabled RWD Lincoln sedan for years. I'm not going to get too excited until there more hard evidence or a concept. Follow up with a RWD 4-door Thunderbird for Ford on CD6 and maybe we can forgive them for dropping every sedan in the US lineup.
  9. I know people that used to buy Mercurys, Pontiacs, Oldsmobiles, etc. They all drive Japanese cars now. The Big 3 threw away market share for years--decades--by watering down their middle brands, and then when sales declined to the point of no return, they justified the phase out by stating there was a lack of interest in the brand. It wasn't lack of interest--it was a lack of compelling product. Only a fraction of those Mercury customers went to Ford or Lincoln; the rest went to competitors. Ford's market share keeps decreasing every 10 years because they do nothing but constantly alienate customers and give them reasons to go to the competition. Killing sedans is only the latest in a long history of blunders. We actually put our money where our mouth is and purchased a 2017 Edge Titanium last year for my wife, and I will be ready for a new vehicle next year. We bought the Edge as a family vehicle, but even my wife doesn't really like the high center of gravity and more sluggish driving experience after coming from a Corolla. I have always driven sedans, typically sport sedans, and have no desire to buy a truck or crossover. A Mustang is too impractical at this point (I need four doors and a usable backseat). Ford is basically telling me to look elsewhere, and it is a shame. I never imagined I would have to do such a thing after all the years I have spent invested in this company from a time, interest, and financial standpoint.
  10. No disagreement with the Mustang, but some people need a vehicle more practical than that. Ford is hanging their hat on one vehicle.
  11. The future is dim for anyone that likes a vehicle that is nimble, handles well, and sits closer to the ground...sedan or otherwise. "Active" millennials are part of the problem, but Baby Boomers are the real ones killing off sedans. It's unfortunate, because not everyone wants a high riding vehicle, and it means those sales are going to go to a competitor.
  12. mustang84isu

    Focus Active Canceled!

    Hackett is in over his head. I've been an investor in Ford since 2008 and am considering liquidating some or all of my shares for the first time. This company is lost and keeps drifting further out to sea.
  13. mustang84isu

    So Cars Don't Sell?

    Until they don't. We are at the tail end of bull market and people have spending freely the last few years, extending financing out to 72 months and beyond to keep monthly payments low. When interest rates rise and that bear cycle rolls around again, and buyers are forced to trim their budgets, Ford will be flat-footed with a bunch of expensive crossovers and people will look elsewhere. Tastes are cyclical and can turn on a dime. What people think is hot today may not be so tomorrow. The crossover is becoming the modern-day minivan for millennials who are starting to have families and empty nesters who are looking for ease of entry / exit. If I had to guess, we are about 5 years out from Peak Crossover before sentiment starts turning negative on the segment. Just right around the time that Ford will have fully phased out its sedan lineup. Instead of staying diversified, Ford is putting all its eggs into one basket just like in the late 1990's. And we all saw how that story ended.
  14. What's killing me about Ford stock the last few years is that we constantly hear positive news about rising ATP, especially on F-series, in the monthly earnings reports, yet it never translates into improved margins or profit. South America, Russia, Europe, China, rising materials costs, warranty costs, recalls--something always kills any momentum the stock has during quarterly earnings. This has been going on since 2014. Now we hear that Ford doesn't profit on sedans or Lincoln, when that was the whole point of One Ford. As a shareholder I am starting to question the competency of Ford management, and I agree with the other poster that said Hackett always talks about cuts, but never talks about what he is going to do. It doesn't project confidence. You can talk about fluff stuff like mobility and where you see yourself in 5 years, but at the end of the day Ford is a product company and their average product age is higher than most other manufacturers. Now they are tying to cut their way to higher margins by saying 30% of the buying public that drives sedans should look elsewhere. I just don't see it ending well.
  15. Not just me, but also the 5 million other people that bought sedans last year. Even if the sedan market is shrinking, walking away from it completely is a mistake. All those potential sales will go to competitors. Not everyone wants the high center of gravity, extra weight, or extra cost associated with SUVs. This is Ford overreacting like it always does, and this is why my shares have been dead money since 2014. Ford was wrong on the compact/midsize pickup market, and I have a feeling they will be wrong on this as well.
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