Assimilator

We can do a postmortem on Ford for days but much of it has to do with the disastrous leadership of Mark Fields who was more interested in pet projects (GT, Ford Performance, Lincoln) than in maintaining or evolving the system Mullally put together to keep their core prioritized. Part of the problem was that Mullally's One Ford approach didn't quite work that well either and Fields didn't know how to manage those teams and was dragging his feet on everything. It meant that Ford couldn't respond to regional market shifts because everything had to be developed under one system and that makes Ford extremely slow and bureaucratic. Ford is still clever but it moves too slowly and remains very inefficient with a weak balance sheet. It also continues to struggle with new product launches, they tend to have far more launch issues than any other company and it's a problem they haven't been able to fix but have had very little new product to launch in recent years to confront again. Ford just got a little too unmotivated and indecisive and that's why we are in this position now (once again). Ford may just be in a more advanced stage of product planning than most because they turned their business around earlier, but the failure to maintain their business and customer base is a pretty big warning sign that they didn't have the right leadership in place for a very long time. But Ford is making some enormous changes now which lets us clearly know they acknowledge the scale of their problems and are building something big to fix it all. They just need time to roll it out. It won't fix everything at Ford but it will return them to some relevancy again.

Why shouldn't GM count the sum of its business against the sum of Ford's business?

I've been seeing them all over Michigan. GM has a more modern and trendy design aesthetic going on, to me this looks somewhat similar to the GMC Terrain which I see EVERYWHERE in Michigan. Lots of new GM products have this same sort of new age design with the play on longer hoods and proportions with sculpted creased lines overlapping smooth surfacing and foating greenhouse designs. To me it tends to look very tortured and over designed and it's not something I expect Ford to ever do. Ford is not exactly a design innovator anymore but I do trust them to be smarter about it...although I'm not that impressed by Focus and 2020 Escape...2020 Explorer is amazing however.

GM just sells more of everything, it's hard to get around that. They sell more Subcompact Utilities, Compact Utility, Midsize Utilities, Full-size Utilities, Trucks, Cars, Luxury, exotics, Electrics, etc. There are a few exceptions like Mustang, Transit, and Hybrids (although Ford has largely left that business for the time being). The difference with GM however is that they have significantly greater product diversity as a company so it's easy to overlook just how many cars GM is actually selling in each market segment. When you throw in the other BOF vehicles into the mix (Tahoe/Suburban/Escalade), GM's truck business is just huge and enormously profitable. I don't think people appreciate how much GM (and others) have overtaken Ford in virtually every product category. GM's Full-size truck business will likely overtake F-Series by the end of next year as F-Series reaches the end of it's product cycle and both RAM and GM start to pile on with some pretty outstanding new trucks in full production. But I actually expect GM's truck business to shrink a bit by the end of the year as they transition. I think Ranger will help to even things out but Ford is in a zero-growth position until beyond 2020. It's more about shuffling customers around than getting more. I think the problem with Ford is just that they aren't really transitioning, they are pulling the plug on the bath water, draining their customers out, and will refill it once they are gone. There is just no transition phase at all. All things considered, I think they are doing a good job keeping things relatively flat overall while selling to other customers. They are facing enormous headwinds (aging fleet, discontinued volume products, slow product rollouts) ahead of their product updates so just keeping their business from shrinking is going to be amazing in itself. I wouldn't say Ford has a ton of new product coming since we are actually losing more products at the same time, but they have enough of the right products coming and they are going to be standouts. I just hope Ford gets all the other pieces into place like launch scheduling which was still a problem as recently as Expedition/Navigator.

The packaging on Explorer and Aviator is significantly more efficient while exterior dimensions are generally longer, lower, and wider which makes it look smaller than the taller and boxier D4 Explorer. I get the impression that Explorer is more Flex-like than I would personally like but it's not quite that wagon-like even if the interior packaging is somewhat similar. Actually, the new Explorer looks like the current Explorer but flattened and stretched. I think it looks sharp but not all SUV fans will be happy since it's moving further away from that tall utility aesthetic...I think that's why Bronco is timed to arrive at the same time. Ford Crossovers are getting lower and lower to the ground for efficiency. The Edge dropped 2-inches, the Escape will drop an inch I believe. When you see this happening you see why cars are no longer needed, they are starting to merge in the middle. The Explorer is going to be great but I'm not sure it's exactly what consumers are looking for, I'm a little iffy on the mass appeal but it's a technologically powerhouse and Ford's flagship for sure. It should generate tons of excitement and I would certainly buy one before seeing Aviator. Some things to look for, the new 10-Speed Hybrid transmission design which will be mated to at least two engines between Explorer and Aviator (3.3L V6 and 3.0L EB). Optional Larger Vertical/Portrait infotainment screen with a split view for the car's controls and Apple CarPlay/Android Auto. It will be the first Ford with these two technologies but they are rolling out to all their premium RWD products. Ford is suppose to be deploying a HUD in the US but I'm not clear on what vehicles are getting it, I assume Explorer is a likely candidate.

The Aluminum components are US only I believe, they are all distinctive to the US Ranger. The big reason for that was to offset the added weight of the steel bumpers and extended frame mounts in a vehicle that's already a bit porky for the segment despite being somewhat on the smaller side.

I do think Ford will set the standard for the industry when it comes to electrification, perhaps not BEVs but definitely Hybrids which has been mishandled by the industry at-large. I'm excited to see how Ford makes Hybrids mainstream and desirable again. Ford's BEV program is less interesting right now but I think the Mach1 will be the right product to bring them back to the BEV market and should appeal to far more customers. It won't be the only one, the Mach1 really is the agreed upon shape of the mainstream BEV market, all the big boys will have something similar.

I'm not necessarily disappointed that Ford's marketshare continues to shrink on a global level as long as they are proud of the products they are making. They may not be able to sell vehicles at the prices and volume needed to be an Automotive SuperPower like VW or Toyota. I certainly don't get the impression that Ford wants to be bigger, they never talk about sales leadership anymore. Perhaps Ford's outlook is more about being the 'next thing' instead of tackling the changing market as it exists today. Ford tends to show up at the right time with the right product, even if it seems like they are quite late. But they usually don't show up with half-measures...USUALLY *cough* EcoSport *cough* Ranger *cough*. I don't expect a Ford miracle but they are ambitious and hopefully we'll see that soon. I still think Ford will do fine... they have some great new technologies they are deploying at an industry leading scale, although I still have a hard time making the product count work based on the products I know are in development. I think Ford will still be more about getting the basics back in shape first.

The Ford Maverick is a cheaper utility intended to replace the EcoSport (in the US) and slot below the Escape, it's using a cheaper and ruggedized version of the Global B. They are actually building the Maverick mules off of the new Fiesta. This is very common for the segment, the Compass and Renegade are using B-Segment platforms, as are all other vehicles in this class. You can get very spacious vehicles out of B-Segment platforms.

The Maverick is not C2 based, it's derived from the Global B. What are the two you're thinking of?

Ford runs on RAZER thin margins, it's very unprofitable to keep multiple factories making the same car so I don't at all believe it's more expensive for Ford to import the Focus Active from China than to make it locally, perhaps on a micro logistics level but not on a broader level. Ford is not importing from China to save on labor costs, they are importing from china because they have the capacity there to feed one big c-sedan growth market (China) and one much smaller shrinking market (US). It was always about making this car sustainable and I think people lost the plot with their China phobia. Globalizing product production makes low volume product diversity possible and unfortunately we can't seem to take advantage of that possibility. I think people fail to appreciate how volatile the car market really is and Ford has to constantly balance risk while providing their customers greater product choice without risking the viability a US-based company that still employs more US workers than any other automaker. Ford has lost a tremendous amount of global marketshare, it's dropped consistently since the year 2000 where it ranked 2nd and just exited the top 5 last year. If Hyundai and FCA do merge, that would make Ford by far the smallest carmaker out of Detroit.

It's never too late but Ford has never treated the Chinese market with the priority and urgency than GM and VW has and there is an obvious lack of leadership and direction going on with their Chinese operation. As the Chinese market transitions to electric there is an opportunity for Ford to grow and standout technologically in markets where that's critical, Ford has some ambitious plans for EV rollouts in China but right now there is nothing tangible. Ford still has monumental product challenges and just iterates far too slowly for a competitive industry. To put it bluntly, Ford can't keep up and it's not adapting well to emerging markets and it really remains to be seen if they can change course. Ford has a ton of broken areas to fix right now, no small task.

I actually think Lincoln is reinforcing its image as a 1979 Town Car. That seems to work well for the Navigator since it has that richness and flamboyance that's perfect for the segment, but it's not something that works well for a variety of products and customers. I'm not really sure how Lincoln is going to successfully standout and grow with it's current design and product approach which I don't find terribly imaginative or noteworthy in a crowded market. I have grown very doubtful that Lincoln has the right direction in mind...until they reveal what they are doing next anyway. They definitely need a next act to grow their business because it's shrinking at the moment.

It is a concept believe to be based on the next generation CT5.

If a CD6 sedan is coming for Lincoln, the inside people I know at Ford don't know about it yet...I can tell you that much. If we are expecting a successor to MKZ by 2020, we should see some evidence by now unless it's going on hiatus which is certainly possible. Remember Aviator and Corsair are 2020/2021 vehicles and we certainly know those are coming and have seen them. There's no way of getting around the fact that any new Lincoln sedan will be met with fewer and fewer sales so I don't think it's smart to continue investing at this point when they are struggling to establish themselves in a shrinking business. There are some outstanding CD6 utilities coming however, I think a flagship CD6 utility could easily wear the Continental name and compete with the Q8...although that's probably a little optimistic. I would certainly be in on that personally, Aviator is nice but there's certainly room for more adventurous coupe styling. I think the biggest problem with Lincoln is that continues to follow trends instead of set them, it's one of the reasons they remain so anonymous and forgettable, they need a fleet of stylish utilities as quickly as possible instead of trying to bring back what they missed out on.

Camaro has not been able to regain the pent-up demand from its first few years of sales leadership.

It's interesting to note that Ford "only" has a 50,000 sales lead over GM full-size trucks so far this year.

I don't think people quite understand what Ford (Farley particualrly) means when they say they are getting away from the sedan profile. Selling a raised Fusion sedan with a Hatchback does not suddenly make it an appealing utility, it still looks every much like an undesirable traditional sedan. It has to look and package like a 2-box utility with the height, space, and design of a tall utility. There really isn't that much interest in the in-between as we've seen already, at least at Ford's scale. It might work for a few thousand units at Buick, but Ford can't be bothered with that customer. People want a utility that looks like a utility, they DEFINITELY don't want a sedan that looks vaguely like a utility when there are countless other real utilities for the same money. I think Fusion might have succeeded better if it was developed for the US market first instead of the global market. It's a great vehicle to look at and drive but it's also not the most spacious and poshest midsizer, especially for its price. I appreciate Ford's approach but it's not the best for the traditional midsize audience. The stylish Fusion targets more fickle trendy consumers more likely to graduate to utilities, while Camy and Accord target the loyal and profitable customers (barely) while Nissan gives them away. It doesn't help that Fusion was developed when the midsize customer was more profitable so the Fusion wasn't designed to cost as well as it really needs to be now for the bargain bin shoppers. And Ford simply needs factory space which is expensive, like FCA they have to make decisions based on priorities and profits.

Ford's financial report said that by 2020 they would be down to Mustang and Focus Active, so my guess is 2020 is the final MY for Fusion and MKZ.

Oh Wow, GM truck sales are through the roof, Buick is through the floor, and Caddy is certainly doing better than Lincoln so far this year.

Not too shabby overall, mostly the same trends we've seen all year. Their Utilities and Crossovers fairly flat overall with better retail on Expedition and excellent growth on Navigator. The decline on their cars are picking up once again as C-Max and Focus phase out. If Ford can keep their sales fairly flat for the year, that's an achievement with the loss of volume products and no major new products. Lincoln Continental is fading very fast now along with MKZ, probably a good time to phase those out now. Their utilities are pulling all of the weight now and doing quite well offsetting their massive car declines.

I like this tactic. Ford should make the Mustang GT V8 standard as well and make the 2.3L the optional engine.

Most dealership experiences are good, I never get mad at the people working there if something goes awry just as long as I'm convinced they aren't wasting my time or making things worse. I was one of the early adopters of MyLincoln Touch in my 2011 Lincoln MKX and I ended up on the front-line of what would turn out to be one of the biggest quality gaffs in Ford's recent history (followed shortly later by the DCT of course). I warned people really early on before it became news that MLT/MFT was a disaster. And unfortunately, that meant about 10 warranty visit just for MLT and still more for MLT in my 2013 MKX. It took years to stabilize that system and 'fix' the problem. If the problem is a design flaw, it may take years to fix. Another reoccurring problem in my AWD 2007-2011 MKX/MKZ/Mariner was the PTU...all leaked and it took years before a new PTU seal design finally fixed the problem. When I had the problem in my 2007 MKX, they told me they are designing a new part and can't fix it yet so I just tolerated the burning smell of transmission oil for a year (only happened in winter when AWD had to kick in).

Presumably all Explorers will have standard AWD which would be awesome. And Ford flat-out lied about the standard hybrid drivetrain. If you get the regular 3.3L, it subtracts $3,530. The 3.0L is an extra $790 above the Hybrid. The Hybrid is just the standard configuration for whatever that's worth on a fleet ordered car.

The MKX has been sold in China with the 2.0L. It's a great engine, might perform better with the 8-Speed. The Corsair is still a smaller and cheaper utility than Nautilus, no matter how you price it up with the available engine, but that's nothing new.