FordBuyer Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 It's still of my opinion that Elon Musk is the new Henry Ford of his time making all other auto execs look like suited up dilletantes. He walks a fine line sometimes, but then so did Henry Ford: Click here: Tesla shares up 19 pct. as company sees 1Q profit - Yahoo! Finance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 In other news, Lincoln still sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 You forgot Porsche also. Anyway, I think it's great that an American start up luxury company is profitable so soon much less even still be around. The Model X is certainly a good idea also. Not so sure about $35,000 sedan following the Model X. Just hope they don't offer a Titanium model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Wow - ONE whole quarter of profitability. There's a guarantee of long term success if I ever heard one. It's easy to get one quarter's worth of profits. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Wow - ONE whole quarter of profitability. There's a guarantee of long term success if I ever heard one. It's easy to get one quarter's worth of profits. I thought you understood business? They are a START UP company, and just in early stages of ramping up after spending gobs of money to get to this point. First year production numbers are sold out, and how many can say that? No one that I know of buidling relatively high number of vehicles/year. Ferrari does it, and Porsche is sold out of new 918 Hybrid, but these are $800,000 vehicles that are built in few numbers like maybe 918 as in case of 918 and fewer than 1,000/year in case of Ferrari. GM doesn't have customers waiting for every Volt it can build, and it doesn't sell much more than 20,000/year. Tesla will sell 20,000-22,000 Model S's this year, and many will be top of line $100,000 vehicles with profit margin over 20% according to Musk. Not bad for a start up. I just wish I had bought the stock at $30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickF1011 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 They are a START UP company They've existed since 2008. The term "start up" has a shelf life. And with all of the start up manufacturers of late, sooner or later somebody is going to get it right. The odds aren't favorable though when even the established giants in the industry have had colossal struggles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 It's questionable whether they can sustain those kinds of sales numbers more than a year or two. The market for such a vehicle is still extremely limited. And if they continue to be successful they'll certainly get a lot of competition that will drive prices down and R&D costs up. I give them kudos for getting to this point but the jury is still out on the long term prognosis. Oops. I meant to say..... OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 You've got two posts left, FB. Make 'em count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 They've existed since 2008. The term "start up" has a shelf life. And with all of the start up manufacturers of late, sooner or later somebody is going to get it right. The odds aren't favorable though when even the established giants in the industry have had colossal struggles. Not sure if I would compare a Lotus body with a propietary EV system that was basically just putting toe in water with very few units built and sold to an all new ground up Model S that is very revolutionary in so many ways. To me anyway, Tesla became a full fledged auto company when it finally hit 400-450/week production rate in its own plant, can sustain that number, and finally has the revenue coming in to pay off suppliers and loans years early. And again every Model S it builds is sold. To me, where the sustainability will come is when battery technology gets to where prices, weight, and storage of energy improves over time and is passed on to consumer. As just a stand alone luxury car, the Model S is impressive and first rate. Add in its range and power, and you have a revolutionary sports sedan. Whether other luxury makers can catch up remains to be seen because Musk is in Silicon Valley and leveraged all that brain power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Wow - ONE whole quarter of profitability. There's a guarantee of long term success if I ever heard one. It's easy to get one quarter's worth of profits. Yeah. Just have to juice some asset valuations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 can sustain that number Or, you know, is generating enough revenue to increase the business and reinvest. One post left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 You've got two posts left, FB. Make 'em count. Yeah I know, Nuburgring, VW, FoE, GM, and Tesla along with losing to Biker all the time rile you up plus annoy the dickens out of you. You are a funny guy Jensen. Archie Bunker of autos still lives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 One left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aneekr Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Tesla Motors is the one U.S. based automobile manufacturer to field an entry that affirmatively answers the following inquiry from Jason Cammisa of Road & Track: 'We rooted for the home team, but we gave our allegiances (and down payments) to the Germans and the Japanese, wondering if the American car companies could ever make a truly amazing car. Not just a good car-America makes plenty of very good cars today, thankfully-but a true game changer, a machine so breathtaking that the whole world must stop and sigh "wow."' I sincerely hope that Tesla Motors succeeds in the years to come, and not just because I'm long in TSLA shares. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Speaking of vaporware, whatever happened to Carbon Motors? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papilgee4evaeva Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Speaking of vaporware, whatever happened to Carbon Motors? Funny you should ask. http://www.autoblog.com/2013/04/01/carbon-motors-pulls-out-of-indiana-plant-future-uncertain/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Tesla Motors is the one U.S. based automobile manufacturer to field an entry that affirmatively answers the following inquiry from Jason Cammisa of Road & Track: I sincerely hope that Tesla Motors succeeds in the years to come, and not just because I'm long in TSLA shares. You made some nice bucks today as the stock really popped. It should be able to hold onto at least some of the gains today going forward as Tesla has enough orders to last the year with hundreds more coming in every week or so. And as thousands of the vehicles appear on street as they are now in some regions, that is advertising unto itself. Also like how you can buy the least powerful battery, and unlock extra power for a price if you feel you need it later on. More revenue coming into Tesla. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 (edited) Tesla Motors is the one U.S. based automobile manufacturer Yeah, if nobody expected Ford to turn a profit, they could probably do some pretty amazing things too. Especially if they only had to line up more suckers to pay for the next round of product development instead of paying for it out of cash flows from ongoing operations. Bottom line is this: If you want to compare Tesla with Ford, then you need to either extend Ford the same advantages, or handicap Tesla's meager success thus far. Investors continue to tolerate an unproven business model at Tesla, involving an unproven product in an unproven sector with unknown future costs and decidedly unsustainable production volumes. Giving them credit for 'succeeding' when the standards for success are so low and the amount of capital raised by ongoing operations is almost nonexistent is like handing out a gold medal to the guy in first place after 50 feet of a marathon. Edited April 2, 2013 by RichardJensen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 And, FB, if you decide to respond again on this thread, you will get a warning point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aneekr Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 (edited) You made some nice bucks today as the stock really popped. It should be able to hold onto at least some of the gains today going forward as Tesla has enough orders to last the year with hundreds more coming in every week or so. And as thousands of the vehicles appear on street as they are now in some regions, that is advertising unto itself. Also like how you can buy the least powerful battery, and unlock extra power for a price if you feel you need it later on. More revenue coming into Tesla. Thanks FordBuyer. Indeed, TSLA crested the $46/share mark at about 1115 Eastern time on April 1 and reached its 52 week high at that point. I don't have anywhere near as many shares of TSLA as I do of F, though. TSLA has been one of the riskier investments I've made in automotive industry firms over the past three decades. Analyst opinion on Tesla Motors is still very bearish, for good reason. Return on Equity is barely 15th percentile in the automobile manufacturing sector, and the other company quality ratios like Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Inventory Turnover, etc., are similarly lackluster. Nonetheless, the March 31, 2013 press release and the sheer product excellence embodied by the Model S gives me reason to be optimistic about Tesla Motors. Investment aside, not since I was a teenager in the late 1950s has a relatively small American automaker been so enthralling to me. Edited April 2, 2013 by aneekr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aneekr Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Bottom line is this: If you want to compare Tesla with Ford, then you need to either extend Ford the same advantages, or handicap Tesla's meager success thus far. IMO, as an investor it's not worth comparing Tesla Motors to Ford or any other mass market automaker at this juncture. Even comparisons to BMW AG and Porsche SE, or to suppliers like Magna Intl., are tenuous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJensen Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 IMO, as an investor it's not worth comparing Tesla Motors to Ford or any other mass market automaker at this juncture. Even comparisons to BMW AG and Porsche SE, or to suppliers like Magna Intl., are tenuous. It is in one very meaningful sense: Funding new product. It's the toughest reality out there: Eventually you can't fund new product by issuing more stock, borrowing more money, or selling more bonds. Eventually, you have to pay for new product from the net of existing product. And given that Tesla's reputation hinges on providing the most technologically advanced product, you are setting an absurdly high threshold for success. It may be argued that Ford could not build a car like the Model S. It is far more significant to note that Tesla cannot make a car like the Focus: That is, sold in volume, available throughout the US, with a 7 year warranty, and serviceable at thousands of locations. And this is more significant because this is what the market wants, and until you can serve the entire market (really, multiple markets in multiple countries), you cannot fund new product. Of course, this could also be a colossal pump-and-dump, wherein Tesla is sold to a foolish corporation on the basis of a few rosy quarters, and some deceitful or at best unrealistic numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 I'd be taking the money and running far away from Tesla, Yes, be glad you've made a fortune but don't get greedy.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReasonablyLucid Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 I hope they are truly successful. Tesla is the only electric car I have considered owning just because their range bests all the the other competition out there. Focus EV, Leaf, Spark, etc all have around 80 miles of EV but The model S does 200+. I hope they manage to mass produce their battery tech better in future years to drive the price down to something that everybody could afford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 I hope they are truly successful. Tesla is the only electric car I have considered owning just because their range bests all the the other competition out there. Focus EV, Leaf, Spark, etc all have around 80 miles of EV but The model S does 200+. I hope they manage to mass produce their battery tech better in future years to drive the price down to something that everybody could afford. What is so high-tech and unique about a huge, expensive array of Li-ion battery cells? Quadruple the size of the battery pack in the EV Focus and you'd have the same range for about the same cost. The decision to limit the battery size in most EVs and plug in hybrids is driven by cost, not technology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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