To the Tesla Negatards

[aneekr]

Quadruple the size of the battery pack in the EV Focus and you'd have the same range for about the same cost.

 

But you'd still have a Ford Focus EV in that case. It would be the most sophisticated Ford Focus ever conceived, but not the kind of automobile that garners the media attention (not to mention about 15,000 pre-order reservations with deposits $5k or greater) Tesla Model S has.

[akirby]

But you'd still have a Ford Focus EV in that case. It would be the most sophisticated Ford Focus ever conceived, but not the kind of automobile that garners the media attention (not to mention about 15,000 pre-order reservations with deposits $5k or greater) Tesla Model S has.

 

I'm not debating that it's a stunning vehicle. But it's not earth shattering technology either.

[RichardJensen]

But you'd still have a Ford Focus EV in that case. It would be the most sophisticated Ford Focus ever conceived, but not the kind of automobile that garners the media attention (not to mention about 15,000 pre-order reservations with deposits $5k or greater) Tesla Model S has.

 

But how does Tesla stay ahead of Ford when Ford is drawing on the revenue of millions of Focuses sold over the life of the product?

[mustang_sallad]

And, FB, if you decide to respond again on this thread, you will get a warning point.

 

I'm guessing there must be some back story here, cause this sounds ridiculous. Member of a forum posts a thread making points you disagree with and you threaten to boot him out?

[NickF1011]

I'm guessing there must be some back story here, cause this sounds ridiculous. Member of a forum posts a thread making points you disagree with and you threaten to boot him out?

We're all aware of the situation...hopefully it doesn't come to that for anyone.

[rprobst]

I see more Teslas on the streets of my town than I see Fusions. And my eyes are tuned to both. Seems like Fusions are still slow to arrive in Northern California -- mine came in last Thursday.

[mustang_sallad]

I've driven EVs from Ford, GM and Nissan, I worked on one of Ford's somewhat half-baked attempts, and I've ridden in a Model S once. Anyone who says Ford could just quadruple the batteries in the Focus to compete with this thing clearly hasn't seen the thing in person, and frankly probably hasn't read any of the countless publications that have praised it. First of all - the Focus EV is severely compromised in terms of interior space due to the powertrain, while the Model S is considerably more spacious inside thanks to its powertrain. The car has a freakin' structural battery pack, and frankly I think that kind of ground up design is essential for these things to succeed. Sure the basic concept for EVs is pretty generic (batteries + inverter + motor...) but give credit where it's due. These guys built an EV that competes very well with its internal combustion equivalents - better performance (acceleration, low center of gravity), better packaging (huge cargo, front and rear), competitive pricing, and they've even done a decent job of addressing the disadvantages of EVs - poor range and long recharge times (250+ mile range, 150 mile recharge in 30 mins using a growing network of dedicated charging stations).

 

It's fine to argue that the business still may not make it, but at some point you have to wonder if people are hoping it won't make it when every step of the way they find some reason to not give them some hard earned praise for a given accomplishment.

[NickF1011]

Anyone who says Ford could just quadruple the batteries in the Focus to compete with this thing clearly hasn't seen the thing in person, and frankly probably hasn't read any of the countless publications that have praised it.

The only way in which that comparison was made was in terms of vehicle range on a single charge. To that end, the comparison is completely valid.

[RichardJensen]

some hard earned praise for a given accomplishment.

 

I'm sorry, but Tesla has operated, thus far, in a reality-free zone. It's a multi-billion dollar hobby farm.

 

To Musk's credit, he has succeeded in putting a decent vehicle together--where most projects like this fizzle out (e.g. Fisker).

 

But there's nothing about this business model that is sustainable. Either this is going to be an exclusive club of like-minded fellows who are content to have their vehicles flat-bedded to distant (or perhaps nearby) service centers for maintenance, and who are content to never stray from a tiny self-built quick charge network, or to use their products as glorified golf carts and/or status symbols----in which case, the business will die because it will not generate enough funds to further ongoing development.

 

Or Musk will need to radically alter his business plan and mainstream this product.

 

I'm going to go on a bit of Pete D. rant, so my apologies in advance:

 

There will be no revolutions of the auto industry. People who think that the auto industry is this old stodgy collection of companies that wouldn't know a good idea if it hit them upside the head are sorely mistaken. The auto industry is *incredibly* capital intensive. About the only way you can be successful in this biz is if you're operating on all six inhabited continents (or you have the implicit backing of the French government---cough, PSA, cough) and selling millions of units annually.

That is not a 'stodgy' industry, that is an incredibly, highly, extremely competitive industry.

 

Okay, now that we've gotten that out of the way...

 

I think Musk's operating assumptions about the auto industry are deeply flawed, and despite the quality of the Model S, I cannot envision any scenario in which Tesla succeeds, except that it is sold to one of the established players in the sector.

[silvrsvt]

I'm sorry, but Tesla has operated, thus far, in a reality-free zone. It's a multi-billion dollar hobby farm.

 

To Musk's credit, he has succeeded in putting a decent vehicle together--where most projects like this fizzle out (e.g. Fisker).

 

But there's nothing about this business model that is sustainable. Either this is going to be an exclusive club of like-minded fellows who are content to have their vehicles flat-bedded to distant (or perhaps nearby) service centers for maintenance, and who are content to never stray from a tiny self-built quick charge network, or to use their products as glorified golf carts and/or status symbols----in which case, the business will die because it will not generate enough funds to further ongoing development.

 

Or Musk will need to radically alter his business plan and mainstream this product.

 

I'm going to go on a bit of Pete D. rant, so my apologies in advance:

 

There will be no revolutions of the auto industry. People who think that the auto industry is this old stodgy collection of companies that wouldn't know a good idea if it hit them upside the head are sorely mistaken. The auto industry is *incredibly* capital intensive. About the only way you can be successful in this biz is if you're operating on all six inhabited continents (or you have the implicit backing of the French government---cough, PSA, cough) and selling millions of units annually.

That is not a 'stodgy' industry, that is an incredibly, highly, extremely competitive industry.

 

Okay, now that we've gotten that out of the way...

 

I think Musk's operating assumptions about the auto industry are deeply flawed, and despite the quality of the Model S, I cannot envision any scenario in which Tesla succeeds, except that it is sold to one of the established players in the sector.

 

 

So basically its Tucker Automobile all over the again?

[akirby]

Anyone who says Ford could just quadruple the batteries in the Focus to compete with this thing clearly hasn't seen the thing in person

 

Try paying attention. I was only referring to the "amazing battery range" that implied Tesla had some unique technology that others don't have. I was merely pointing out that they're using Li-ion batteries like everyone else - they're just using more of them to get the extended range.

 

I'm not dismissing the cars style, design or performance. It's damn sexy and as a standalone vehicle it's really nice. But let's not pretend it's earthshattering technology.

[RichardJensen]

So basically its Tucker Automobile all over the again?

 

It's a better car than the Tucker, but Preston Tucker had more of a background in the auto industry than Musk.

[Ron W.]

Preston Tucker had more of a background in the auto industry than Musk.

 

And Bill Ford compared to Al Mulally?

[silvrsvt]

And Bill Ford compared to Al Mulally?

Not really applicable...I was speaking about start up automotive ventures vs one that is established with fiefdoms

[RichardJensen]

And Bill Ford compared to Al Mulally?

 

Touche...

 

Except, Boeing was a multi-division multi-national involved in the stiflingly complex engineering and manufacturing of machines expected to perform reliably under life/death scenarios, with extremely heavy regulatory oversight that varies from country to country, with long lead times, huge 'first unit' costs, and sketchy margins.

 

Elon Musk accidentally invented PayPal and then sold it to eBay.

Edited April 3, 2013 by RichardJensen

[jpd80]

I'm curious about the non-traditional leasing deal he struck with Wells Fargo.

As I understand it, it's a 10% down 66 month loan that uses government incentives to meet the 10% deposit but repayments are around $900 a month

It sounds like the S is probably aimed at executives looking at longer term business leasing where perhaps more tax deductions are available...

Edited April 3, 2013 by jpd80

[mustang_sallad]

Try paying attention. I was only referring to the "amazing battery range" that implied Tesla had some unique technology that others don't have. I was merely pointing out that they're using Li-ion batteries like everyone else - they're just using more of them to get the extended range.

 

I'm not dismissing the cars style, design or performance. It's damn sexy and as a standalone vehicle it's really nice. But let's not pretend it's earthshattering technology.

 

my bad - i got all excited and carried away. i agree with you.

[mustang_sallad]

I think their plan from the start was to reach profitability when their 3rd gen, ~$35K car came out. Meanwhile, they've already got a service centre in my city of ~2 million people. I don't think they're totally off their rocker, and if anything, the results so far have exceeded expectations. They've made quite the name for themselves, regular people have heard of them, and this is what they needed to start with.

[RichardJensen]

I think their plan from the start was to reach profitability when their 3rd gen, ~$35K car came out.

 

Profitability is one thing--and I have my doubts that their profitability is sustainable.

 

Generating enough revenue to fund further development is another thing entirely. That's why car companies are these globe straddling giants; they have to be to compete.

Edited April 4, 2013 by RichardJensen

[jpd80]

I hope the leasing does the trick for Fisker, it's tough times to be getting people to commit large sums on vehicles...

Edited April 4, 2013 by jpd80

[banker55]

Profitability is one thing--and I have my doubts that their profitability is sustainable.

 

Generating enough revenue to fund further development is another thing entirely. That's why car companies are these globe straddling giants; they have to be to compete.

I kind of wonder when a company states they will follow GAAP. What have they been doing? I think the cash flow statement will be interesting .

[NickF1011]

Oddly enough, I saw a Model S on my way to work today. It looked okay on the road, but for my money, it would be a Maserati instead.

[jpd80]

LINK

 

ELECTRIC car-maker Tesla is under fire after reports overnight that it had encouraged customers to pay up-front

for cars that have not yet been built so it could turn a profit.

Bloomberg revealed that the California-based electric car company had sent email requests to buyers of its Model S

sedan so that it could balance the books and generate its first profit in 10 years.

Tesla reported this week that it had delivered 4750 vehicles in the first three months of this year, while other figures

show it was sitting on 15,000 orders in December last year.

But questions were asked after a Bloomberg interview with a Tesla owner revealed he had taken delivery for a car in

March – despite only ordering it in December.

Bloomberg has speculated that customers were either jumping the queue, or Tesla had received a surge in cancellations

and buyers wanting to delay their purchase.

“I’ve received an email ... they’re asking customers ‘please, please, please order in the first quarter’,”

Bloomberg reporter Cory Johnson said.

According to the email, Tesla was “right on the cusp of profitability this quarter for the first time in 10 years since the

company started”.

It then encouraged customers to stump up their payment for the car “in order for Tesla to be able to count your Model S for the quarter”.

Mr Johnson said pulling the orders forward to the first quarter would have a big impact on the company for the next quarter.

The suggestion that Tesla has tickled the numbers is not the first time such allegations have aired.

Earlier this week, the way the electric car-maker calculates the cost of owning one of its cars came under close scrutiny after it

wrote off time spent caught in traffic or standing in petrol station forecourts as lost money.

Using Tesla’s calculator, the car-maker shows that the “True Cost of Ownership” calculator can reduce a $1500-a-month lease

of its Model S to just $500 a month by including factors such as time saved while driving in transit lanes or standing at pumps

filling a petrol tank.

According to Tesla’s default setting, a Model S owner’s time is worth $100 an hour, equating a 15-minute fill to about $25

worth of standing around.

“When considering the savings from using electricity instead of gasoline, depreciation benefits, and other factors, buyers

will save hundreds of dollars per month compared to owning a gasoline powered car,” Tesla claims.

[NickF1011]

Uhhhh...oops.

[papilgee4evaeva]

Ramifications, anyone?