No Hybrid Explorer or Aviator for 2024

[silvrsvt]

If fuel efficiency was so important, lots more sedans would be sold vs CUVs. 
 

it is a nice to have in many situations or people deal with it because they value space or the future ability to do something like pickup a appliance or furniture in a pickup. 

[Gurgeh]

53 minutes ago, akirby said:

People who are cost conscious don’t buy $60k+ vehicles in the first place.

[Rick73]

21 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

Funny and good for a laugh, but reality is that even Tesla is struggling with higher-cost Models S and X, with almost all their sales switching to more affordable Models 3 and Y.  Recently also read that luxury BEVs from other manufacturers are sitting on lots for extended periods.  This shows price elasticity affects most buyers one way or another, including the rich.  During tougher economic times, the wealthy cut back on luxury items much like everyone else, though what they consider luxury is likely quite different.

[silvrsvt]

32 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Funny and good for a laugh, but reality is that even Tesla is struggling with higher-cost Models S and X, with almost all their sales switching to more affordable Models 3 and Y.  Recently also read that luxury BEVs from other manufacturers are sitting on lots for extended periods.  This shows price elasticity affects most buyers one way or another, including the rich.  During tougher economic times, the wealthy cut back on luxury items much like everyone else, though what they consider luxury is likely quite different.

I betting EV sales are going to be the canary in the coal mine with higher priced ICE vehicle sales starting to fall in the next six months or so as higher interest rates and general fear about the economy, world and elections starts to increase. 

[jpd80]

37 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

I betting EV sales are going to be the canary in the coal mine with higher priced ICE vehicle sales starting to fall in the next six months or so as higher interest rates and general fear about the economy, world and elections starts to increase. 

Maybe a lot of that depends on the price of gasoline and how that’s portrayed in the media. Some parts of the political area were almost praying for a recession by now to be proven right. I would hope the economy stays flat for a while, taking a breath after all those interest rate rises. 

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Funny and good for a laugh, but reality is that even Tesla is struggling with higher-cost Models S and X, with almost all their sales switching to more affordable Models 3 and Y.  Recently also read that luxury BEVs from other manufacturers are sitting on lots for extended periods.  This shows price elasticity affects most buyers one way or another, including the rich.  During tougher economic times, the wealthy cut back on luxury items much like everyone else, though what they consider luxury is likely quite different.

 

Eh, I also think that is largely attributable to the fact that the S and X have never had a redesign - S got a nip and tuck that changed the grille, and they both just got a new dash, but otherwise, they're 11 and 8 years old, respectively.

 

Buyers aren't going to put up with that forever, and want something new - sure Tesla has made improvements to the models under the hood, but still, a product can't go that long unchanged and expect to maintain sales volumes....

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Eh, I also think that is largely attributable to the fact that the S and X have never had a redesign - S got a nip and tuck that changed the grille, and they both just got a new dash, but otherwise, they're 11 and 8 years old, respectively.

 

Buyers aren't going to put up with that forever, and want something new - sure Tesla has made improvements to the models under the hood, but still, a product can't go that long unchanged and expect to maintain sales volumes....

 

Completely agree that old designs can’t possibly help Tesla S and X sales.  On the other hand, I expect that when Tesla introduced the Model 3, it didn’t take long for them to realize that Model S would lose significant volume to the cheaper Tesla 3 option.  If that was the case, why would they invest heavily on major redesigns of S and X?

 

I see some parallels with Ford reducing ICE investment to better fund electrification.  Similarly, I’d expect Tesla to invest more in lower-cost new models than in their high-cost older models knowing the market is more limited.  And yes, I know they could make up for low sales volume provided margins are high enough.  In any case, Model S and X are struggling in sales by comparison and it wouldn’t surprise me if one or both are discontinued when new Model 2 or Q or whatever it will be called is introduced; though now delayed again. 

 

By the way, Model 3 Highland update seems fairly minor, similar to what S went through a few years ago.  Maybe Musk thinks of Tesla cars like VW did with original Beetle.

[jpd80]

11 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Eh, I also think that is largely attributable to the fact that the S and X have never had a redesign - S got a nip and tuck that changed the grille, and they both just got a new dash, but otherwise, they're 11 and 8 years old, respectively.

 

Buyers aren't going to put up with that forever, and want something new - sure Tesla has made improvements to the models under the hood, but still, a product can't go that long unchanged and expect to maintain sales volumes....

Until recently, the S and X were almost double the price of 3 and Y but of late the former seem to have come down in price to the mid $70K. I mean, if Tesla wasn’t all that worried about sales and pricing, then why the big drop?

 

Is Tesla feeling the pinch from reduced sales so much that it’s now throwing big discounts at vehicles it needs to move?

[rmc523]

10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Until recently, the S and X were almost double the price of 3 and Y but of late the former seem to have come down in price to the mid $70K. I mean, if Tesla wasn’t all that worried about sales and pricing, then why the big drop?

 

Is Tesla feeling the pinch from reduced sales so much that it’s now throwing big discounts at vehicles it needs to move?

 

Sure....they probably realize their product needs help, but haven't invested in a new one (at least publicly).  I think an S/X redesign should've been prioritized over Cybertruck.

Edited October 24, 2023 by rmc523

[silvrsvt]

So the 2024 Explorer will only be in production for two months, with the 2025 starting production in March. 
 

of course impact of the strike has to be considered. 
 

https://fordauthority.com/2023/10/2024-ford-explorer-production-begins-in-january/

[jpd80]

23 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Eh, I also think that is largely attributable to the fact that the S and X have never had a redesign - S got a nip and tuck that changed the grille, and they both just got a new dash, but otherwise, they're 11 and 8 years old, respectively.

Yes, age is a big part of it but also the pricing was a huge disconnect in attracting more buyers, add the two together and it’s no surprise that both of these don’t sell in meaningful numbers. They are an example of older thinking at Tesla where premium pricing was used to restrict production of vehicles that probably way more inbuilt costs.

 

 

23 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Buyers aren't going to put up with that forever, and want something new - sure Tesla has made improvements to the models under the hood, but still, a product can't go that long unchanged and expect to maintain sales volumes....

Tesla should be renewing both the S and X ASAP but now, they’re kinda stuck with falling income, trying to launch CT and talking about a Tesla 2. It hard when so much relies on two volume products to make basically all the income, welcome to the real world of automotive product cycles Elon….

[Rick73]

On 10/20/2023 at 8:54 AM, silvrsvt said:

You conveniently ignored the fact that Atkinson engines develop less power and scaling them up would impact weight, which would offset any fuel economy gains in any situation. 

I answered above already, but thought you may enjoy a side-by-side comparison based on actual test results, not theoretical technical concepts difficult to understand or comprehend.

 

While comparing Toyota Crown specs, performance, and “real-world” fuel economy it reminded me of your rebuttal above.  Maybe if you see/read from independent source how big a difference Atkinson cycle can make in fuel economy compared to turbo engines (even when both vehicles are hybrids) you will better understand the point I had made.  Granted, there are other differences to consider/evaluate.

 

The tested Crown with 2.5L Atkinson Hybrid got 42 MPG observed overall, and also 42 MPG at steady 75 MPH.

 

The Crown Platinum with much more powerful 2.4L Turbo Hybrid got 28 MPG observed overall, and 32 MPG at steady 75 MPH.

 

Major cost to the fuel economy improvement in this comparison is lower power and acceleration, with Atkinson Crown taking 7.2 seconds 0-60 versus turbo Crown 5.1 seconds.  I feel most buyers would find 7.2 seconds plenty fast for a daily driver, and would choose the standard Atkinson powertrain which costs less initially and returns ~ 42 vs 28 MPG, a 50% improvement in MPG (in observed real driving).

 

In fairness, Turbo Platinum weighs almost 300 pounds more, I expect partly due to added luxury content, and also uses a 6-speed auto transmission.  That’s one of the other points I’ve made — that Ford could benefit from designing a more efficient RWD hybrid-specific transmission if they plan to go all in on hybrids.

 

https://www.caranddriver.com/toyota/crown-2023

 

 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

I feel most buyers would find 7.2 seconds plenty fast for a daily driver, and would choose the standard Atkinson powertrain which costs less initially and returns ~ 42 vs 28 MPG, a 50% improvement in MPG (in observed real driving).

Your feelings aren’t necessarily facts.  Around 30% of dealer stock is the platinum model so plenty of people are buying them because to them performance and/or features are more important than fuel economy.  Another 30% are XLEs which most people buy just because it’s the cheapest model regardless of fuel economy.  
 

I don’t know why you can’t understand that not everybody is obsessed with fuel economy like you are.  A lot of buyers care more about other things like price and performance.  The only way to really test your hypothesis is if the high mpg powertrain is optional - then you know they chose it based strictly on fuel economy.

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

I don’t know why you can’t understand that not everybody is obsessed with fuel economy like you are.

Wouldn’t I have to be blind to think that, given the number of gas guzzlers on highways?  Obviously many don’t care.

 

I was simply sharing additional information with silvrsvt for his benefit in case he’s interested in learning more about different hybrids, which is the subject of his thread.  He seems more interested than most in electrification, presumably to reduce global warming (actually to reduce rate of increase since none of this actually reduces GHGs or global warming), which ties directly back to reducing vehicle fuel consumption; however it is accomplished.  Reducing fuel consumption reduces additional GHGs, primarily CO2, and that part is pretty easy to understand.  Whether individuals believe it makes a climate difference or not is a different issue.

 

I understand perfectly and accept that many if not most US buyers could not care less about GHGs, and probably don’t care much about cost of fuel either.  For high income families, I’d guess the difference in fuel costs probably doesn’t appear on their radar.  On the other hand, “some” buyers are interested in reducing their carbon footprint.  It doesn’t have to be all or nothing; some care about fuel efficiency, some don’t.  Ford can sell to both groups.

 

Will indeed be interesting to keep an eye on Toyota sales data since 30% stock in Platinum Crown doesn’t necessarily correlate to sales.  Is it not possible that most expensive units are not moving off the lot as quickly?  At higher prices, Lexus may also become an option.

[silvrsvt]

The thing is with the Crown, the only difference, as far as I can tell is that that 6 speed transmission is nothing more then a CVT with a launch gear and 6 simulated gears in it

 

https://www.just-auto.com/deals-dashboards/suppliers-jointly-develop-toyota-crown-hybrid-transmission/

 

Also Toyotas combined estimates are only 38 vs 28 combined for each engine type also. 

[Gurgeh]

5 hours ago, akirby said:

Your feelings aren’t necessarily facts.  Around 30% of dealer stock is the platinum model so plenty of people are buying them because to them performance and/or features are more important than fuel economy.  Another 30% are XLEs which most people buy just because it’s the cheapest model regardless of fuel economy.  
 

I don’t know why you can’t understand that not everybody is obsessed with fuel economy like you are.  A lot of buyers care more about other things like price and performance.  The only way to really test your hypothesis is if the high mpg powertrain is optional - then you know they chose it based strictly on fuel economy.

Agree. It is important in this discussion to better understand the differing motivations behind interest in hybrids. There's obviously the traditional econo hybrid, where fuel efficiency is everything. Then there is the increasing use of hybrid configurations in luxury and higher-performing vehicles. Those hybrid configurations are all about improving power and performance, as it is with the 2024 Nautilus hybrid I have on order. The hybrid version adds the battery and electric motor to (I believe) a slightly revised version of the base turbo 2.0 to get hp up above 300 and to give a big boost to torque. That's why I ordered it. It might get slightly better MPG, but I really wouldn't care much if it didn't. It is the new engine upgrade option that replaces the outgoing 2.7 twin scroll V6. Similarly, the hybrid configuration of the Lincoln Aviator has always been about increased power and performance.

[Rick73]

7 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

The thing is with the Crown, the only difference, as far as I can tell is that that 6 speed transmission is nothing more then a CVT with a launch gear and 6 simulated gears in it

 

https://www.just-auto.com/deals-dashboards/suppliers-jointly-develop-toyota-crown-hybrid-transmission/

 

Also Toyotas combined estimates are only 38 vs 28 combined for each engine type also. 

Multiple sources, including Toyota, say it’s a 6 speed auto on the Platinum which has turbo 2.4L engine.  The two lower grade Crown have 2.5L Atkinson engines mated to electronic e-CVT.

 

Not sure where you are getting MPG numbers from, but the only EPA Ratings I’ve seen are higher for both powertrains.  Combined ratings are 41 MPG for XLE and Limited, and 30 MPG for Platinum.  In case of Crown, added performance no doubt increases fuel consumption considerably.

 

[silvrsvt]

7 hours ago, Rick73 said:

Multiple sources, including Toyota, say it’s a 6 speed auto on the Platinum which has turbo 2.4L engine.  The two lower grade Crown have 2.5L Atkinson engines mated to electronic e-CVT.

 

Not sure where you are getting MPG numbers from, but the only EPA Ratings I’ve seen are higher for both powertrains.  Combined ratings are 41 MPG for XLE and Limited, and 30 MPG for Platinum.  In case of Crown, added performance no doubt increases fuel consumption considerably.

 

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-crown-returns-to-the-us-with-bold-style-and-new-hybrid-max-powertrain/

 

Paired with a 2.4-liter turbocharged engine and a direct shift 6-speed automatic transmission, HYBRID MAX produces powerful torque at low RPM for sporty, exhilarating driving and has a manufacturer-estimated 28 MPG combined city/highway fuel economy rating. XLE and Limited grades are equipped with THS, a highly efficient hybrid system with a newly developed, high-output bipolar nickel-metal hydride battery that can achieve a manufacturer-estimated 38 MPG combined city/highway rating.

 

The Crown isn't listed on fueleconomy.gov site yet

 

As for the transmission-it doesn't look like a stereotypical automatic transmission and the other transmissions that have the Directshift moniker on them in previous years where CVTs with a launch gear on it. Maybe its a DCT style transmission? I just wonder why they went backwards and when with a 6 speed say a 8-9 speed for a traverse application. 

[akirby]

[Rick73]

32 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-crown-returns-to-the-us-with-bold-style-and-new-hybrid-max-powertrain/

 

 

 

 

The Crown isn't listed on fueleconomy.gov site yet

 

As for the transmission-it doesn't look like a stereotypical automatic transmission and the other transmissions that have the Directshift moniker on them in previous years where CVTs with a launch gear on it. Maybe its a DCT style transmission? I just wonder why they went backwards and when with a 6 speed say a 8-9 speed for a traverse application. 

Yes, that 28 MPG Combined appears to be the original “manufacturer estimate”, but apparently official results were better at 30 MPG Combined.

 

You are probably correct that new 6-speed may be a Dual-Clutch, which makes most sense to me.  It’s the way Hyundai has gone with some hybrids as well.  I can’t find definitive information about new transmission, but a couple of articles implied it.

 

As to number of gears, 6 is probably plenty when hybrid motor is used to smooth power delivery between shifts.  If I recall correctly, Hyundai Hybrid also use 6 speeds.  Also to consider in case of Toyota Crown Platinum (and some Hyundai) is that Turbo engines can maintain close to their peak efficiency over a wider torque range.  In theory anyway, assuming ideal programming, an engine like EcoBoost doesn’t benefit as much from 8, 9, or 10 speed transmissions.  I recall ZF technical guys stating that even with naturally aspirated engines, using greater than 8 gears was more about marketing than fuel or performance gains.

 

With newest hybrid powertrains using more powerful electric motors, doesn’t it make sense that operation starts to resemble a BEV a little more, where 1-speed transmission is the norm?  OK, not ideal comparison, but point is that 100+ HP electric motors can be used to smoothly bridge the gap between wider-spaced gears in my opinion.  Toyota made reference to that in Crown media release.